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Market Summary

U.S. markets paused after a run of record highs, with the S&P 500 and Dow retreating while the Nasdaq held modest gains. Volatility rose as investors weighed jobs data, defense sector turbulence and oil disruption from Venezuela; tech and AI names led gains, energy and defense moved on policy headlines.

U.S. forces have seized vessels linked to Venezuela as the administration moves to control the country’s oil exports. Officials say proceeds and sales will be managed by U.S. authorities, raising geopolitical and market risks.

Figure of the Day

30–50 million barrels — Volume President Trump said Venezuela will hand to the U.S. under the new oil arrangement.

A federal ICE operation in Minneapolis left a civilian dead and ignited widespread protests and political backlash. The shooting has become a flashpoint for debates over immigration enforcement and federal-local tensions.

President Trump’s renewed talk of acquiring Greenland has strained relations with European allies. Denmark and Greenland are seeking urgent diplomatic talks with the U.S. to clarify intentions.

Bullish

AWS surge lifts Amazon guidance

Amazon raises full‑year outlook after stronger‑than‑expected AWS cloud demand, sending shares higher as investors price in durable enterprise cloud spending.

The White House is pressing for a big defense buildup while targeting contractor payouts. The president ordered a halt to dividends and buybacks until production improves and floated a sharp military budget increase.

JPMorgan is set to take over Apple’s credit‑card program, ending Goldman Sachs’ role and reshaping retail credit relationships. The move clears a long-running headache for both banks and Apple.

Bearish

Blackstone tumbles as Trump targets institutional home buyers

Shares of large real‑estate investors slide after the White House signals plans to restrict institutional purchases of single‑family homes, threatening business models built on rental portfolios.

A California judge denied OpenAI’s motion to dismiss Elon Musk’s lawsuit, sending the case toward trial. Separately, reports show OpenAI set aside a massive equity pool for staff, spotlighting governance and compensation tension.

OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health as it pushes further into personal data, while tech firms face legal exposure over chatbots and teens. Settlements and new product launches underscore rising regulatory and reputational risk for AI.

Regulatory Impact

White House orders include withdrawing U.S. support from dozens of international organisations, curbs to NEPA reviews, DOT withholding funds from California over CDL rules, and new federal moves to control Venezuelan oil sales.

Anthropic is racing to raise multibillion-dollar funding as AI investors double down on competition with OpenAI. The company’s fundraising talks and term sheets could reshape valuations in the AI race.

Nvidia’s moves at CES and sales strategy are shifting the AI hardware landscape, prompting competitors and regulators to react. China remains a key market as Nvidia balances commercial demand with export scrutiny.

Quote

“I will not permit dividends or stock buybacks for defense companies until they fix production problems.”

— President Donald Trump

Samsung expects a record profit as memory prices spike, underscoring tight global chip markets. The company’s outlook highlights the sector’s sensitivity to AI server demand and supply constraints.

Warner Bros. Discovery’s board again rejected Paramount’s takeover approach, backing its deal with Netflix. The rebuff keeps a high‑stakes media M&A duel alive and pressures shareholders to choose between rival bids.

Beijing is accused of breaching congressional staff email systems as technology and trade frictions rise. At the same time China tightened rules on dual‑use exports, heightening geopolitical risk for supply chains.

Zhipu AI’s Hong Kong debut and the firm’s warnings about an international AI price war underscore Asia’s deepening role in the AI market. Investor appetite for Chinese AI listings is testing global sentiment.

The Trump family’s crypto venture is pushing to bring its stablecoin operations onshore by seeking a U.S. banking charter. Regulators and markets are watching whether Washington will allow a politically linked crypto bank to operate domestically.

Labor data show hiring remains sluggish despite pockets of strength, setting up a critical jobs report that could sway markets. Investors are parsing ADP and job‑openings signals for clues on the Fed’s path.

India’s markets regulator says Bank of America staff shared confidential information around a major trade, highlighting cross‑border compliance risks. The probe underscores rising scrutiny of global banks’ conduct.

ExxonMobil warned earnings will be hit by softer oil and gas prices even as geopolitical events push commodity volatility. Oil markets remain focused on supply dynamics from Venezuela and inventory draws.

Cryptocurrencies pulled back ahead of U.S. jobs data and amid ETF outflows, testing recent rallies. Traders and fund flows suggest short‑term volatility as macro catalysts return to the fore.

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