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Market Summary

Markets opened the year on a strong footing: the Dow closed above 49,000 while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hovered near record levels. Tech and AI names led gains, energy and precious metals moved on Venezuela headlines, and volatility rose as investors priced geopolitical and macro data risks, with jobs and inflation reports set to steer the next leg.

A U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro has left Caracas tense and uncertain, triggering domestic fear and international fallout. Reports also confirm U.S. service members were injured during the raid, underscoring risks for U.S. forces and regional stability.

Figure of the Day

49,000 – Dow closes above 49,000 for the first time, marking a new milestone in the 2026 rally.

The White House is promising large volumes of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. and proposing subsidies to coax firms back, raising questions about cost and market reaction. The plan’s price tag and political risk fuel debate over feasibility and taxpayer exposure.

Washington’s talk of using military options over Greenland has set off a diplomatic rift with Europe. European leaders have publicly rebuked U.S. threats, deepening transatlantic strains over territory and alliance norms.

Bullish

Saudi Arabia opens stocks to all foreign investors

Riyadh will lift restrictions and allow full foreign participation in its stock market, a major step to boost flows and deepen capital markets in the kingdom.
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Iran faces a mounting crisis as large-scale protests spread and the government urges restraint for security forces. Deadly clashes in major markets have been reported, intensifying domestic unrest and international concern.

Morgan Stanley expands its crypto push with filings for ether, Bitcoin and Solana exchange-traded products, marking another big bank move into spot crypto funds. The filings signal growing institutional embrace and potential retail inflows.

Bearish

AIG chief to step down in latest executive reshuffle

AIG disclosed a leadership shuffle with CEO Peter Zaffino set to step down, a move that rattled investors and sent shares lower amid questions over strategy and succession.
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Nvidia told CES audiences it is ramping production of H200 chips ahead of expected China sales, and previewed its Vera Rubin superchip, keeping pressure on rivals and supply chains. The moves underscore Nvidia’s central role in the AI hardware race.

Industrial and consumer tech partnerships dominated CES as legacy manufacturers and chipmakers sharpen AI plays. Siemens expanded ties with Nvidia to deploy industrial AI, while CES set the stage for broader enterprise and consumer AI rollouts.

Regulatory Impact

Major policy moves: White House signals military options on Greenland; China tightens dual‑use export controls to Japan; EU carbon border tariff took effect Jan 1; U.S. freezes $10bn in social service funds to five states amid fraud probes.

Wall Street records held as the Dow pushed above 49,000 and the S&P 500 hit fresh highs, led by tech gains. Investors remain watchful of geopolitical shocks and economic data that could alter the rally’s momentum.

Eurozone inflation eased to 2% in December, meeting forecasts and signaling cooling price pressure. The reading informs ECB policy outlook and market expectations for rate moves in 2026.

Quote

“We’re going to keep the oil.”

— President Donald Trump

Beijing tightened export controls and threatened rare‑earth curbs, escalating a trade and tech standoff with Tokyo. Japan’s industry and supply chains face new risks as strategic materials and dual‑use goods become geopolitical levers.

Big oil and energy suitors are lining up around sanctioned Russian and Venezuelan assets as the U.S. pushes to unlock Venezuelan crude. Shipping and logistics moves signal early steps to restore exports but risks and paperwork remain.

The conflict in Ukraine continues with heavy drone and missile activity, while naval surveillance grows amid wider great‑power tensions. Incidents at sea and airspace raise risks for supply routes and military escalation.

European and global bond markets reacted to central bank moves and debt sales as yields adjust to shifting policy. Germany sold 10‑year debt at higher yields while Japan’s balance‑sheet shrinkage is pushing long‑dated rates up.

Automotive tech M&A and biopharma deals marked corporate strategic moves: Mobileye bought a humanoid robotics startup to accelerate physical AI, and Amgen snapped up a UK cancer biotech as big pharma eyes assets ahead of patent cliffs.

Elon Musk’s xAI pulled in fresh capital even as his Grok chatbot drew global regulatory and political backlash over harmful outputs. The funding sharpens competition in AI while safety and governance concerns intensify.

Chinese AI firms and chip units are heading to Hong Kong as the region’s exchanges court tech IPOs. Baidu’s chip arm and high‑traffic startups are moving toward listings, reflecting Asia’s growing role in the AI supply chain.

Crypto volatility and a metals frenzy created market whiplash: Bitcoin slid after failing to break key levels while silver pulled back after a parabolic run, leaving traders to weigh momentum and carry risks.

Semiconductor supply tightness and manufacturing tie‑ups reshaped industry planning: Samsung warned of memory shortages that could lift prices, while Qualcomm is in talks with Samsung to contract‑manufacture bleeding‑edge 2nm chips.

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