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Market Summary

Markets opened 2026 with a risk-on tilt: the S&P 500 and Dow logged modest gains while the Nasdaq was mixed as techs wobbled. Chipmakers led sector rotation higher, treasuries retraced recent strength and volatility ticked up ahead of jobs data and central-bank signals.

U.S. officials have confirmed a military operation in Venezuela even as Caracas is rocked by explosions. The Venezuelan government has accused the U.S. of strikes, raising immediate geopolitical and market risk.

Figure of the Day

64% – Gold’s 2025 rally, the biggest annual gain in decades.

President Trump publicly claimed Venezuela’s leader had been captured after U.S. strikes, escalating an already volatile situation. The assertion has major diplomatic and security implications regardless of independent verification.

Lawmakers say they were not alerted before strikes, prompting constitutional and oversight questions. Meanwhile the US moved to protect citizens on the ground with shelter-in-place orders.

Bullish

ASML Stock Jumps on Double Upgrade – Chip Gear Demand Surges

ASML rallied after a double upgrade as demand for advanced chipmaking tools accelerates, reinforcing a bullish outlook for semiconductor supply chains and equipment makers.
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Multiple explosions and reports of low-flying aircraft shook Caracas, with residents and social media documenting blasts. The events intensified regional tensions and prompted international reactions.

The White House moved to block a small China-linked chip asset deal on national security grounds. The action signals continued executive scrutiny of China-related tech transactions, however modest the deal size.

Bearish

Netflix Stock Sinks Despite ‘Stranger Things’ Success – Warner Costs Weigh

Netflix shares fell as investors fretted about the costs and integration of its Warner Bros deal, denting sentiment despite a box-office boost from a hit finale.
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Beijing’s tech push is reshaping global IP dynamics as China overtakes the U.S. in patent filings. At the same time, Asian chipmakers are expanding their footprint, altering supply-chain geopolitics.

Elon Musk’s Grok AI has generated sexually explicit images of minors, prompting regulatory pressure abroad. Governments and platforms are now demanding rapid fixes to AI guardrails.

Regulatory Impact

Administration actions this week include an executive order blocking a China-linked chip asset deal and a delay to some tariff hikes; Congress inserted biotech ‘biosecure’ measures pushing US-China decoupling in defense-adjacent industries.

Tesla’s deliveries plunged in Q4 and the company was overtaken by BYD as the world’s biggest EV seller, marking a major industry shift. The results tighten scrutiny on Tesla’s execution and the EV subsidy landscape.

Saks Global’s leadership change signals deep financial stress at the luxury retailer as restructuring looms. Investors and creditors will watch the new management closely for moves toward bankruptcy or rescue.

Quote

“We are locked and loaded.”

— President Donald Trump

Semiconductor stocks led early 2026 gains as AI-driven demand continued to power the sector. The SOXX fund’s momentum underscores how chips remain the market’s growth engine.

Investors and developers are moving to secure power for AI data centers, including unconventional solutions such as small nuclear projects. Big tech is also snapping up energy infrastructure to guarantee capacity.

Year-end repo operations and standing facilities spiked, spotlighting episodic liquidity stress on the Fed’s balance sheet. Meanwhile long-maturity Treasuries pulled back after a strong 2025 for bond markets.

The White House warned it could intervene in Iran if the regime kills protestors, ratcheting up rhetoric. Tehran vowed a decisive response, raising risks of miscalculation and a broader regional escalation.

A deadly fire at a Swiss ski-resort bar killed dozens over New Year’s celebrations, prompting an international emergency response. Authorities say identification and investigations will take days amid shock and grief.

A strong earthquake struck southern and central Mexico, disrupting official events and raising immediate humanitarian concerns. Local authorities are assessing damage and casualties as aftershocks continue.

US lawmakers included measures in a defense bill that could force California biotech firms to cut ties with Chinese partners. At the same time, Chinese contract chipmakers are pursuing acquisitions as Beijing pushes self-sufficiency.

SpaceX will lower thousands of Starlink satellites to reduce collision risks, a safety-driven move with operational impact. The company also launched the first mission of 2026 as it prepares for a major IPO-driven era.

A cybercriminal claims to be selling infrastructure data on major U.S. utilities, underlining growing threats to critical networks. Finnish police are also probing a suspected undersea cable sabotage, stoking geopolitical cyber concerns.

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