Market Summary
Markets opened 2026 cautiously optimistic: S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed modest gains while the Dow lagged as investors balanced a potential Fed pivot with earnings and geopolitical shocks. Volatility remains elevated, precious metals extended rallies, and Asian bourses led early strength. Key catalysts: Fed minutes, Treasury yields, large IPOs and tariff policy shifts.
A catastrophic New Year’s Eve fire at a Swiss ski-resort bar has left dozens dead and hundreds injured, triggering emergency rescue operations and an official probe. The scale of fatalities raises questions for authorities, insurers and alpine tourism operators.
Figure of the Day
4.57bn – Record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs over two months ending December.
Widespread protests over economic hardship in Iran have turned deadly, testing the government’s tolerance for dissent and threatening political stability. Early fatalities signal potential escalation and a harsher security response.
Ukraine reports intense overnight drone strikes attributed to Russia, hitting power infrastructure and civilian areas. The attacks increase pressure on energy grids and raise fresh geopolitical tensions at the start of the year.
Bullish
Biren’s Hong Kong listing rockets — AI GPU demand fuels surge
Chinese GPU maker Biren jumped sharply on its Hong Kong debut as investors piled into AI hardware names, signaling robust appetite for domestic chip plays and fresh capital for local semiconductor ambitions.
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Baidu’s plan to spin off Kunlunxin and seek a Hong Kong listing has rattled markets and highlighted China’s push to fund domestic chip ambitions. Shares reacted strongly as investors priced in a fresh AI‑chip growth story.
OpenAI is reported to be shifting its AI hardware manufacturing to Foxconn as it accelerates product development and seeks scale for a consumer device. The move signals growing hardware ambitions and supply‑chain shifts in the AI race.
Bearish
ACA subsidies lapse — millions face steep insurance hikes
Enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits expired at year‑end, leaving roughly 22 million Americans exposed to higher premiums and mounting affordability pressure on households and insurers.
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Chinese AI research groups are publishing new training methods that promise to scale large models more efficiently, drawing notice from analysts and competitors. The advances could reshape foundational model economics and accelerate deployment.
Chinese GPU maker Biren staged a dramatic Hong Kong debut as investors piled into AI infrastructure plays, underscoring investor appetite for chip names despite geopolitical risk. The listing highlights continued demand for hardware exposure in Asia.
Regulatory Impact
Trump administration delays tariff hikes on furniture and cabinets and scales back proposed pasta duties; ACA subsidy program expired at year‑end, and HHS froze childcare payments amid fraud probes — immediate effects on trade, household costs and federal disbursements.
Cryptocurrency ETFs posted record outflows as prices slid, even as major market players were adding bitcoin to corporate treasuries. The flows underscore a turbulent transition as institutional adoption collides with short‑term losses.
Global equity markets opened 2026 on a positive tone, led by Asia and Hong Kong gains, while investors tracked macro signals and corporate catalysts. Early momentum reflects risk‑on positioning tempered by caution around rates and geopolitics.
Quote
“We worry short‑term funding could seize up”
— Fed official (December FOMC minutes)
Precious metals extended their rally into the new year, with gold and silver drawing fresh demand as investors hedge macro uncertainty. Metals’ strength reflects concerns about rates, currency moves and safe‑haven flows.
Warren Buffett’s retirement marks a seismic leadership shift at Berkshire Hathaway, prompting questions about strategy, capital allocation and succession. Markets and investors are parsing what comes next for the conglomerate’s vast cash hoard.
The Trump administration delayed proposed tariff hikes on furniture and household goods and sharply reduced proposed duties on Italian pasta, easing immediate import cost pressure for retailers. The moves will reverberate across supply chains and trading partners.
Federal agencies froze major payments amid fraud probes and suspensions, heightening operational and political fallout. The actions affect childcare funding, loan programs and could trigger wider scrutiny across federal disbursements.
Federal health subsidies have lapsed at year‑end, pushing up costs for millions of Americans and creating an immediate affordability shock. The policy shift is expected to ripple through consumption and insurer pricing in 2026.
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher as markets reassessed Fed policy and short‑term funding risks flagged in FOMC minutes. Traders are watching liquidity, policy signals and inflation data for 2026 rate expectations.
Danish renewables major Ørsted is contesting a U.S. order suspending offshore wind leases, pitting global clean‑energy investors against policy uncertainty. The dispute underscores friction between federal decisions and project finance timelines.
BYD’s sales growth slowed in 2025 amid intensifying domestic competition, but the firm remains on track to out‑sell Tesla globally. The dynamics highlight fierce price and product battles in the EV market and implications for margins.
Europe’s banking sector faces large workforce reductions as AI drives efficiency and consolidation, while cyber security chiefs warn Europe is overdependent on foreign digital infrastructure. The twin pressures reshape regulatory and operational priorities for firms across the bloc.