Market Summary
Equity markets opened 2026 cautiously: S&P 500 and Nasdaq marked tepid starts while the Dow lagged amid heightened volatility. Fed minutes flagged short‑term funding risks, boosting demand for safe havens and precious metals; gold surged into the new year. Tech and AI lists dominated flows, while energy and financials reacted to OPEC+ signals and AI‑driven restructuring.
A New Year’s Eve explosion and blaze tore through a crowded bar at Crans‑Montana, Switzerland, killing dozens and injuring many. Rescue and criminal probes are under way as international leaders issue condolences and emergency services manage mass casualties.
Figure of the Day
62% – Gold’s annual gain in 2025
The United States and Israel set a concrete two‑month deadline for full Hamas disarmament, signalling an intensified diplomatic and military push. The timeline heightens urgency for ceasefire negotiations and regional diplomacy.
Washington issued explicit warnings to Beijing over military pressure on Taiwan after recent drills. Officials urged restraint as tensions rise and diplomatic channels scramble to reduce escalation risk.
Bullish
Mercari goes global with anime and manga leading expansion
Japanese marketplace Mercari accelerates international growth by leaning on anime and manga goods to capture global collectors and ecommerce demand, boosting its cross‑border revenue outlook.
More on japantimes.co.jp
Widespread protests over Iran’s cratering economy have widened beyond Tehran, leaving casualties and raising concerns about a heavier security response. The unrest threatens economic stability and could spur further international scrutiny.
Key ACA enhanced subsidies expired at midnight, risking big premium hikes for millions and pressuring household budgets. Policymakers and insurers face immediate fallout as 2026 begins with notable consumer cost shock.
Bearish
Apple cuts Vision Pro production after weak demand
Poor sales forced Apple to trim production of its Vision Pro headset, underscoring the challenge of turning premium spatial computing hardware into a mass‑market product.
More on ft.com
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services halted federal childcare payments amid fraud allegations stemming from a Somali‑linked daycare probe in Minnesota. The freeze has immediate budgetary impacts for providers and families nationwide.
Warren Buffett’s departure closes a six‑decade chapter at Berkshire Hathaway while investors and analysts scrutinize strategic direction under new leadership. Succession raises questions about capital allocation and the conglomerate’s future priorities.
Regulatory Impact
Trump delayed planned tariff hikes on furniture and cabinets for one year; the U.S. substantially cut proposed pasta duties after talks with Italy. ACA enhanced subsidies expired at year‑end; HHS froze federal childcare payments amid a fraud probe. The US also granted annual licences allowing TSMC to import U.S. chip tools into China.
President Trump postponed planned tariff increases on furniture and related goods, and the U.S. sharply reduced proposed duties on Italian pasta after diplomatic engagement. The moves ease near‑term inflation pressure but complicate trade policy signals.
Chinese AI chip makers captured investor attention as a homegrown GPU start‑up debuted in Hong Kong with a dramatic share surge, while Baidu’s chip arm confidentially filed for a spin‑off IPO. The activity points to China’s accelerating semiconductor financing push.
Quote
“We suffered one of the worst tragedies our country has ever experienced.”
— Swiss President Guy Parmelin
Washington approved licences allowing TSMC to import U.S. chipmaking equipment into China, a crucial exception in tech exports policy. The annual licences aim to balance industrial access with national security controls.
A tranche of mega IPOs could reshape tech markets if SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic list in 2026, while AI startups posted record funding in 2025. The pipeline promises underwriting windfalls and hotter capital markets for the year ahead.
Precious metals continued their 2025 surge into 2026 as gold and silver opened the year higher, drawing investor focus to refiners and central‑bank buying. The rally is influencing portfolios and commodity trade flows.
December FOMC minutes showed officials worried about short‑term funding strains, highlighting financial‑system risks beyond rate decisions. Equity markets headed into 2026 cautiously as investors weighed liquidity risks and macro catalysts.
Europe’s banking sector is planning deep job cuts as AI drives efficiency moves, while UK law firms brace for a tougher anti‑money‑laundering regime under FCA oversight. Finance and legal sectors face restructuring and higher compliance costs.
Oil markets opened the year volatile as OPEC+ watchers and Venezuelan output influenced supply signals, while oil posted its steepest annual fall since the pandemic. Energy strategists forecast continued pressure as global output stays elevated.
SpaceX will lower Starlink satellites’ operating altitudes in 2026 to reduce collision risk and improve space‑safety metrics. The adjustment signals greater industry focus on orbital management as constellation sizes swell.
Hong Kong equities led Asia’s 2025 rebound as tech and semiconductors powered a strong rally, and local rates are set to fall on expectations of US easing. The dynamics boost listings and investor flows into the territory.
China’s M&A market is poised to expand in 2026 as investor confidence returns, even as major domestic players face slowing growth. BYD topped 4.6m NEV sales but posted its weakest growth in five years, underscoring domestic competition.