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Market Summary

Markets open 2026 on mixed footing: S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq buoyed by AI names, Dow lagging as industrials hesitate. Volatility ticks up on Fed minutes flagging funding risks, while gold and defensive sectors outperform. Tech IPO talk and tariff delays add uncertainty; data‑center and chip supply stories are primary catalysts.

A deadly New Year’s Eve explosion and subsequent fire ripped through a crowded bar at Crans‑Montana, killing dozens and injuring scores. Authorities have launched a criminal probe as Switzerland and international leaders issue condolences.

Figure of the Day

$2.2 trillion – Amount added to the world’s richest fortunes in 2025.

Widespread demonstrations over Iran’s struggling economy have halted normal life in parts of the country. Security forces have responded forcefully, leaving multiple protesters dead and stoking political instability.

Tehran is reportedly seeking alternative revenue streams amid sanctions, offering advanced arms for cryptocurrency payments. Political leaders are issuing stark rhetoric as economic unrest deepens.

Bullish

Apple beats estimates: iPhone sales surge, shares climb

Apple reported stronger‑than‑expected iPhone demand in Q4 with services growth lifting revenue, prompting a market rally and upbeat guidance for the year ahead.

Ukraine has become a proving ground for AI‑guided drones supplied by a private venture, raising concerns in Moscow about escalatory tech use. Kyiv also reported new Russian drone strikes on energy infrastructure.

Moscow has deployed new Oreshnik hypersonic missiles in Belarus, widening regional security risks. Diplomatic frictions escalated when Russia asked the US to halt pursuit of a fleeing oil tanker linked to sanctions evasion.

Bearish

Regional bank collapses after liquidity squeeze – FDIC steps in

A mid‑size regional bank failed following a rapid deposit run, triggering emergency FDIC intervention and renewed concerns about regional banking stability and contagion risks.

U.S. officials publicly urged Beijing to restrain military pressure around Taiwan amid a spike in drills. The Trump administration issued parallel warnings, signaling rising U.S. attention to cross‑Taiwan straits tensions.

Washington granted TSMC an annual licence to import U.S. chipmaking tools into China—a cautious easing in export policy. Memory demand from AI and Nvidia has lifted expectations for firms like Micron, highlighting a strained supply chain.

Regulatory Impact

Major moves: enhanced ACA subsidies expired at year‑end, Trump delayed planned furniture/cabinet tariffs for a year, the US granted TSMC a license for chip tools to China, and the EU’s carbon border rules took effect.

December FOMC minutes reveal Fed officials worried that short‑term funding markets could seize up, focusing attention on liquidity risks. Internal division over policy and financial‑stability tools shows cracks at the central bank.

Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expired at year‑end, exposing millions to much higher premiums. States and local health systems are scrambling to forecast fiscal impacts as enrollment costs spike.

Quote

The Jan. 6 attack ‘does not happen’ without Trump.

— Jack Smith

President Trump delayed planned tariff increases on furniture, cabinets and other goods, easing immediate pressure on supply chains and consumers. The moves have injected uncertainty into trade policy ahead of 2026.

Warren Buffett’s retirement marks the end of a six‑decade era at Berkshire Hathaway and triggers a leadership test for his successor. Investors and analysts are parsing Greg Abel’s playbook as the conglomerate enters a new chapter.

Three of Silicon Valley’s biggest private groups are reportedly preparing blockbuster IPOs that could reshape market supply for tech listings. Banks and advisors are positioning for a wave of mega deals if listings proceed.

AI startups raised record sums in 2025, concentrating enormous capital in a handful of private companies. Chinese players also drew major rounds, underscoring global competition for foundational AI talent and models.

The AI data‑center build‑out is reshaping regional economies and stressing local power systems. Operators are deploying backup generation and onsite gas plants as utilities struggle to meet surging demand.

Precious metals extended a strong run as investors priced in macro uncertainty and policy risk. Gold hit fresh records while silver delivered historic gains, attracting inflows amid safe‑haven demand.

Crypto suffered a brutal end to 2025 as a series of hacks and market reversals wiped out gains and shook investor confidence. The sector faces renewed scrutiny from regulators and institutional holders.

Authorities in Finland seized a vessel tied to Russia amid an undersea cable incident that has drawn EU attention. Brussels and regional capitals are monitoring the case for signs of sabotage or state‑linked operations.

Europe’s banking sector faces sweeping job cuts as AI automation accelerates cost‑saving moves. Meanwhile, Wall Street prepares for another wave of mega‑transactions after a record‑breaking 2025 in dealmaking.

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