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Market Summary
Stocks finished the year mixed as tech and AI winners buoyed the Nasdaq while the S&P 500 and Dow slipped into year‑end weakness. Volatility rose on geopolitical headlines; tech, semiconductors and precious metals led flows. Bond yields eased, mortgage rates retreated to 6.15%, and IPO and M&A watchlists dominated sentiment.
A massive overnight drone assault triggered a high-tempo air-defense response in Ukraine, with Kyiv reporting heavy interception rates. Russia and Kyiv trade casualty and attack claims as the conflict intensifies, raising regional escalation risks.
Figure of the Day
176 – Drones Ukraine says it shot down overnight in a single assault.
An explosion and ensuing fire at the upscale Crans-Montana ski resort killed multiple people during New Year’s celebrations. Authorities continue an investigation amid conflicting casualty reports and mounting public alarm.
Warren Buffett’s departure marks a seismic leadership change at Berkshire Hathaway as Greg Abel takes the helm. Markets and investors are assessing how the company’s strategy and stock-picking will evolve post‑Buffett.
Bullish
Alphabet Cloud Growth Fuels 2026 Upside — Analyst Upgrade
Analyst upgrades Alphabet after accelerating cloud and AI services lifted revenue forecasts, improving 2026 EPS outlook and prompting expectations of increased buybacks and capital returns.
Three of Silicon Valley’s biggest private names are planning blockbuster listings that could reshape the IPO calendar and flood markets with tech supply. Banks, lawyers and investors brace for the scale and timing of these potential debuts.
China continues to accelerate military modernization at sea and in long-range strike capabilities, signaling strategic ambition beyond regional posturing. U.S. and regional planners are recalibrating deterrence as new platforms and missiles appear.
Bearish
Regional Retailer Files Chapter 11 — Hundreds of Stores to Close
A major regional retailer has filed for Chapter 11 after missing debt payments, triggering store closures and lender negotiations that could unsettle commercial real‑estate and retail supply chains.
Nvidia is scrambling to boost H200 AI-chip output amid surging Chinese demand, straining global supply chains. U.S. enforcement actions and unsealed documents reveal attempts to smuggle restricted GPUs, underscoring export-control tension.
Washington widens sanctions and targets supply chains tied to Venezuela’s oil sector while Chinese-linked shipments press ahead, risking a diplomatic tussle with Beijing. The moves are part of a broader effort to choke revenue streams to Caracas.
Regulatory Impact
Bulgaria joins the eurozone; US delays furniture tariff hikes to 2027; five states enact SNAP purchase restrictions on certain foods; US grants TSMC an annual license to import chip tools to China.
President Trump ordered the withdrawal of National Guard units from several major U.S. cities, a move that has sparked legal and political pushback. The retreat signals a temporary de‑escalation in a contentious domestic security policy.
The Justice Department has dramatically expanded its inventory and review of Jeffrey Epstein-related documents, swelling to millions of pages and hundreds of lawyers. The development prolongs legal scrutiny and political fallout ahead of 2026.
Quote
We will never allow our strategic industries to be held hostage.
— Xi Jinping
The released Jack Smith deposition offers new insight into federal probes and potential next steps in high-profile prosecutions. Lawmakers and markets are parsing the transcript for political and legal implications.
Analysts warn that AI could cost European banks roughly 200,000 jobs by 2030 as automation and digital channels accelerate. The projection raises questions about labor market transition, regulation and the pace of restructuring in finance.
China signals a policy pivot to shore up growth in 2026, promising more proactive macro measures and touting domestic AI and chip advancements. The twin messaging aims to stabilize markets and project technological momentum abroad.
TSMC received U.S. approvals to import semiconductor equipment into its China facilities, a move that eases some supply constraints and complicates geopolitical technology controls. The licenses could affect the global chip manufacturing footprint in 2026.
Precious metals remain volatile after a steep selloff and rapid rebound in silver, reflecting speculative flows and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks. Investors watch margins, Chinese export moves and CME margin changes closely.
Saks Global skipped a debt payment and is preparing for a potential bankruptcy filing as liquidity strains surface. The move could ripple through retail creditors and the luxury goods financing market.
Mortgage rates slid to the lowest levels of 2025, offering relief to homebuyers and easing refinancing pressure. The drop is a key near-term tailwind for housing sentiment heading into 2026.
China-based AI firms and deep‑tech startups attracted blockbuster funding and IPO demand as the sector heats up. Large capital raises and oversubscribed offerings point to vigorous investor appetite for AI plays in 2026.
Asset manager Brookfield is moving into cloud and chip-leasing as AI data‑centre demand fuels new business cases for infrastructure investors. The pivot signals private capital chasing steady cash flows from AI scale‑outs.
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