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Market Summary

U.S. markets closed the year with cautious losses as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow slipped on tech weakness and higher bond yields. Volatility edged up into year-end; mortgage rates fell to 6.15% easing housing pressure while investors watched Nvidia supply headlines and Fed minutes for cues on rate cuts and 2026 positioning.

President Trump announced the withdrawal of National Guard units from major cities after a high-profile legal setback, stirring political backlash. The move reshapes federal-local security dynamics as mayors and courts push back.

Figure of the Day

6.15% – 30-year U.S. mortgage rate hits its lowest level of 2025.

The Trump administration froze federal child-care payments while ramping up verification across states amid fraud allegations. Minnesota is a focal point, triggering political fights and calls for audits.

The Justice Department has expanded its review of previously unreleased Jeffrey Epstein records to millions of pages. The growing inventory intensifies legal and political scrutiny ahead of further disclosures.

Bullish

Shopify posts blowout holiday GMV, raises 2026 guidance

E-commerce platform Shopify reported record holiday gross merchandise volume and upgraded 2026 guidance, sending shares sharply higher as merchants rebound.

Transcripts and video of former special counsel Jack Smith’s deposition were released, adding new detail to prosecutions tied to the Trump probes. Analysts and lawmakers are parsing testimony for legal implications.

Warren Buffett officially stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, marking the end of a six-decade era. The handover to Greg Abel signals a major leadership change at a trillion-dollar conglomerate.

Bearish

HomeSpace files Chapter 11 after holiday sales collapse

Mid‑market furniture retailer HomeSpace filed for Chapter 11 following a brutal holiday sales slump and failed refinancing talks, spotlighting stress in discretionary retail.

Taiwan Semiconductor won a U.S. annual license to import American chipmaking equipment to its Nanjing plants, easing export friction. The company also started volume production of 2nm chips, a milestone for the global semiconductor supply chain.

Unsealed documents detail an operation that allegedly smuggled Nvidia H100 and H200 GPUs, spotlighting enforcement around export controls. The revelations could trigger regulatory and criminal follow-ups.

Regulatory Impact

Federal actions this week include a freeze on child-care payments pending stricter verification, an emergency DOE order keeping a Colorado coal plant online, and expanded U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil traders.

Nvidia has asked contract maker TSMC to boost production of its H200 AI chips as demand from China surges. The request underscores supply pressure across the AI hardware market ahead of 2026 rollouts.

Meta agreed to buy AI startup Manus in a deal that accelerates its AI push and raises geopolitical questions about China-linked talent. Separate internal documents reveal tactics Meta used to obscure scam ads from regulators.

Quote

“We’re going to see some escalation now.”

— Ret. Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt

The U.S. imposed new sanctions on traders and vessels tied to Venezuelan oil, tightening pressure on Caracas. Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt output has slumped sharply under the squeeze, amplifying energy-market strain.

U.S. forces struck three vessels accused of narco-trafficking, part of stepped-up counter-smuggling operations in the region. Reporting also links intelligence units to strikes on Venezuelan port facilities used by smugglers.

Luxury retailer Saks skipped a large interest payment as it negotiates with creditors, a prelude to a possible Chapter 11 filing. The missed payment underscores stress in high-end retail financing.

Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level of the year, offering relief to prospective homebuyers and supporting housing demand. The move contributes to a cautious but constructive outlook for early-2026 real estate activity.

Federal Reserve minutes show a divided committee over the December rate cut, leaving markets uncertain about the pace of future easing. Policymakers largely favor cuts but debate timing and magnitude, keeping investors on edge.

Elon Musk’s xAI is expanding compute capacity with new real-estate buys in Memphis to scale its AI ‘colossus’. The purchases signal heavy capital investment as firms race to dominate generative-AI infrastructure.

Biotech Vanda won FDA clearance for a motion-sickness treatment, sending its shares sharply higher. The approval highlights drugmakers’ ability to generate quick market reactions from relatively small regulatory wins.

Axsome Therapeutics received a priority review for its Alzheimer’s agitation drug, prompting a strong market response. The move accelerates a potential approval timeline for an important CNS therapy.

Finnish authorities seized a vessel suspected of damaging an undersea cable in the Baltic Sea, raising alarms about hybrid warfare and infrastructure vulnerability. The incident is prompting regional security and telecom investigations.

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