Market Summary
Markets rallied on the Fed’s third straight 25bp cut as the Dow climbed but futures turned cautious after tech earnings and Oracle’s gloomy guidance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed mixed moves, volatility spiked in AI names, and energy and financials led rotation amid geopolitics and central‑bank uncertainty.
The Fed delivered a third straight 25bp cut, sending markets to recalibrate policy bets and short-term yields. Stocks jumped as traders priced a more dovish path while analysts debated the implications for growth and inflation.
Figure of the Day
1,000,000,000 – Dollars Disney is investing in OpenAI under the new licensing deal.
Oracle’s earnings and guidance shocked investors, with heavy AI spending forecasts triggering a sharp sell-off. The corporate reports reignited fears about stretched valuations in the AI-capex cycle.
OpenAI unveiled GPT-5.2 amid a heated race with Google, framing the release as a leap in agentic AI performance. The launches and updates have intensified competition and regulatory scrutiny across the AI sector.
Bullish
AcmeAI Raises Guidance After Record Q4 Demand
SaaS startup AcmeAI reported 45% YoY revenue growth and raised full-year guidance after enterprise uptake of its MLops platform accelerated, sending shares and partner deals higher.
Disney struck a landmark $1 billion investment and licensing deal with OpenAI, opening its iconic characters to AI video generation. The pact alters media-IP economics and gives OpenAI a major content moat.
U.S. forces seized a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela, escalating tensions with Caracas and prompting fresh sanctions. Washington also moved to target Maduro allies and shipping firms tied to the regime.
Bearish
BigBox Files for Chapter 11 After Sales Collapse
Legacy retailer BigBox said it will seek Chapter 11 protection after sales missed projections and liquidity dried up, risking thousands of jobs and triggering creditor talks.
Kyiv and Washington are negotiating territorial and economic trade-offs as pressure mounts for a Ukraine peace plan. Zelenskiy floated a referendum option for Donbas control, signaling difficult concessions ahead.
SpaceX chatter about a 2026 IPO reignited investor debate about valuation and timing. Elon Musk signalled the reports were accurate as markets weigh a potential mega-offering.
Regulatory Impact
White House proposes social‑media checks for visa‑free visitors; EU tightens foreign investment screening and trims exclusivity windows for new drugs — regulators worldwide are tightening rules on tech, IP and strategic assets.
JPMorgan pushed tokenization into the mainstream by creating Solana-based commercial paper to facilitate Galaxy’s debt deal. The move marks a notable test of on-chain institutional financing.
Rivian announced it is developing in-house AI silicon and software to gain autonomy independence from Nvidia. The EV maker outlined chips, LDM models and robotaxi ambitions to regain investor confidence.
Quote
“We’d rather participate than be disrupted.”
— Bob Iger, Disney CEO
Treasury chief Bessent is reshaping the Financial Stability Oversight Council with a deregulatory mandate, proposing structural changes to how systemic risk is monitored. Markets and regulators are parsing the implications.
The battle for Warner Bros. is fueling takeover theater as Netflix eyes debt-heavy bids and the White House weighs in on media ownership. Trump pressed that CNN should be sold if the deal proceeds, injecting politics into the sale.
The Fed’s dot-plot and internal dissents reveal a split on how far to cut rates next year, sowing uncertainty for markets. Investors are parsing signals for the policy path after the recent easing cycle.
Sen. Warren and others slammed the administration’s decision to allow Nvidia chip sales to China, framing it as a national-security risk. Meanwhile Chinese tech firms are lining up to buy H200 chips — highlighting the tech-geopolitics tug-of-war.
Lawmakers and regulators are racing to set the rules for crypto markets as exchanges expand products and firms seek CFTC approvals. The outcome will shape institutional adoption and custody practices.
Equity futures slipped after mixed corporate reports even as the Dow extended gains; traders remain jittery after the Fed cut and tech earnings. Volatility persists as investors digest macro cues and company outlooks.
The EU is tightening foreign-investment screening and moving to permanently immobilise some Russian assets as geopolitical risks rise. Brussels is also recalibrating trade and subsidy rules to shield strategic industries.
Senate votes failed to pass competing fixes for expiring Obamacare subsidies, setting up a healthcare cliff for millions. Lawmakers face a narrowing window to avert a spike in premiums and broader coverage losses.
Global energy forecasts show a narrower oil surplus even as big producers signal slower output growth. Oil majors are trimming green spends as the sector navigates demand uncertainty and capital allocation shifts.