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Market Summary

Markets opened jittery after a volatile session: the S&P 500 ticked lower while the Nasdaq underperformed thanks to tech weakness and AI worries; the Dow held up on defensive gains. Volatility spiked, cyclicals lagged and safe-haven bonds rallied as investors priced in uncertainty ahead of key data and central bank cues.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials report forward movement in Geneva negotiations over a U.S.-drafted peace plan. Kyiv signals it may have input into proposals as talks continue amid diplomatic scrutiny.

Figure of the Day

69 – Russian drones shot down overnight by Ukraine.

Israel carried out rare strikes on Beirut targeting Hezbollah leadership, with the IDF naming a senior commander among the casualties. The operations mark an escalation that risks widening the Lebanon front.

Israeli air operations have renewed pressure on Gaza, testing a fragile ceasefire and inflicting significant civilian casualties. Hospitals and local authorities report dozens killed and wounded.

Bullish

Macquarie values Qube at $7.5B in fresh bid

Macquarie Asset Management resurfaces with a $7.5 billion offer for Qube, signaling strong appetite for logistics assets and reviving M&A momentum in infrastructure.
More on bloomberg.com

Federal agents have intensified public migrant arrests across major U.S. cities in high-profile raids. A federal appeals court has constrained the administration’s efforts to expand rapid deportation authorities.

The White House is preparing a Trump administration plan to tackle health-care costs and overhaul subsidy rules. Officials signal a framework aimed at reshaping Obamacare support and sending legislation to Congress.

Bearish

Moderna becomes S&P’s most shorted stock – jabs slump

Moderna faces heavy short interest as demand for Covid-19 vaccines wanes, leaving the maker of pandemic-era jabs vulnerable to bearish bets and market underperformance.
More on ft.com

A sharp cryptocurrency sell-off has spilled into broader markets, forcing traders and risk desks to reassess exposures. The rout has exposed fragilities in crypto-linked funds and prompted stress tests across Wall Street.

Bitcoin’s sharp drawdown has erased tens of billions from early holders and prompted debate about whether a bottom is forming. Analysts parse on-chain and macro data for signs of stabilization.

Regulatory Impact

Japan will require chip plants to adopt cybersecurity protections as a condition for subsidies; U.S. EXIM pivots to $100B energy underwriting; an appeals court limited expansion of rapid deportations.

Nvidia reported record revenue but investors remain skittish about the AI trade’s breadth. Questions over earnings, guidance and wider market appetite mean Nvidia’s results may not rescue AI-linked stocks.

Insurers are retreating from offering AI liability cover as multibillion-dollar exposure looms. Major underwriters are seeking permission to limit payouts and reprice AI-related risk amid uncertainty.

Quote

Ukraine is being run by an ‘organized crime syndicate’.

— Vladimir Putin

BHP has re-entered a high-stakes takeover fight, approaching Anglo American as it seeks to derail a rival deal with Teck. The renewed approaches set up a potential bidding war that could reshape the mining sector.

Major banks are scrambling after a cyberattack hit a real-estate finance vendor, raising concerns about customer data exposure. The FBI has opened an investigation into a separate vendor hack that may have exposed borrower information.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank plans a sweeping $100 billion push to underwrite energy projects, prioritizing fossil and strategic investments. The move signals a policy shift toward energy dominance and away from some renewables.

The G20 summit closed amid the conspicuous absence of the United States, highlighting fractures in global leadership. Leaders wrestled with a splintering world order even as they pledged to defend multilateralism.

A diplomatic spat between Japan and China over Taiwan resurfaced at the G20, straining already tense ties. Tokyo’s leaders signalled willingness to intervene in currency and economic policy while avoiding direct talks with Beijing.

Cardano experienced a temporary split after an attacker exploited a known bug, forcing an operational divergence. The project’s founder involved law enforcement as developers resigned and nodes diverged.

Google’s DeepMind is accelerating a push into physical robotics, hiring industry talent as the company bets on real-world AI. At the same time, robotaxi experiments continue with custom vehicles appearing on public roads.

Fed officials signalled caution on cutting rates, keeping policy tight as data remains mixed. Meanwhile bond markets face a pause as traders await fresh economic releases to set the next direction.

Washington is reportedly expanding military options and pressure on Venezuela, prompting airlines to suspend routes amid safety warnings. European carriers halted flights in response to heightened military activity and NOTAM alerts.

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