Market Summary
U.S. equities opened under pressure as tech and AI names led declines: S&P 500 fell, Nasdaq slid harder and the Dow lagged amid rotation to defensives. Volatility spiked with chips and software hit hardest; crypto and miners plunged. Catalysts include ADP jobs, mixed chip earnings and the Supreme Court tariff hearing, keeping investors risk‑averse.
The U.S. federal government shutdown has become the longest in history, straining services and forcing urgent negotiations. Lawmakers are intensifying talks as pressure mounts to avert further economic damage and infrastructure disruption.
Figure of the Day
36 days – U.S. government shutdown becomes longest in history.
A UPS cargo jet crashed just after takeoff from Louisville, producing a massive fireball and multiple fatalities. The accident grounded operations at a major hub and raised urgent safety and logistical questions.
Global markets plunged on renewed concern that an AI-driven valuation bubble is deflating. Tech and chip stocks led declines as investors reevaluated growth expectations and risk premia across regions.
Bullish
Amgen crushes Q3 expectations with strong revenue beat
Amgen topped third-quarter forecasts driven by blockbuster drug sales, lifting sentiment in biotech and providing a rare corporate bright spot amid market volatility.
Crypto markets saw a sharp sell-off with bitcoin slipping below key support and ether triggering large liquidations. The move intensified concerns around leverage and market structure in crypto derivatives.
Democrats scored major wins in key races with Zohran Mamdani’s upset in New York capturing national attention. The results signal political headwinds for the administration and could reshape local and national policy debates.
Bearish
Axon shares slide as tariffs dent Taser maker’s profit
Axon extended declines after tariffs and margin pressure hit quarterly profit, spotlighting how trade policy is squeezing specialized hardware vendors.
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The Supreme Court began hearing a high-stakes challenge to the president’s tariff authority, a case that could reshape U.S. trade policy and executive power. The legal test has major implications for global supply chains and corporate planning.
Beijing issued guidance restricting foreign AI chips in state-funded data centres, a major blow to U.S. suppliers and a sign of accelerating tech decoupling. The moves will reshape procurement and partnership decisions for hyperscalers and chipmakers.
Regulatory Impact
China ordered state-funded data centres to use domestic AI chips; U.S. Treasury signaled possible larger bond auctions; Supreme Court began hearings on the legality of broad presidential tariff powers.
Volatility hit chip and server stocks after mixed earnings and guidance, showing investor skepticism despite solid revenue beats. The episode underscores the fragile investor confidence in AI-related supply chains.
Novo Nordisk upped its bid for obesity biotech Metsera while simultaneously cutting its sales outlook, highlighting intense M&A competition and pricing pressure in the GLP-1 market. The deal dynamic is reshaping sector valuations and strategy.
Quote
“You will see mass chaos. You will see mass flight delays. You’ll see mass cancellations”
— Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy
Armis closed a large pre-IPO financing at a multibillion-dollar valuation, underscoring strength in cybersecurity demand and investor appetite ahead of public markets. The company is positioning for an IPO after rejecting acquisition offers.
The Treasury signaled changes to auction sizes and kept bond sales steady, a balancing act to fund deficits while managing market absorption. Markets are parsing issuance guidance as yields and supply-demand dynamics shift.
ADP’s private payrolls report showed a modest rebound, adding 42,000 jobs and complicating the Federal Reserve’s rate path. The print kept markets focused on labor resilience versus cooling trends elsewhere.
Toyota is recalling over a million vehicles in the U.S. for a rear-camera defect even as tariffs pressure earnings. The twin issues underscore how regulation and trade policy are squeezing automakers’ margins.
Marks & Spencer reported a severe profit hit after a disruptive cyberattack, forcing large cleanup costs and heightening retail cyber-risk concerns. The incident highlights the financial toll of operational breaches on legacy retailers.
IBM is planning large job cuts as it pivots toward higher-growth software and AI services, signaling industry restructuring. The move is another example of legacy tech reshaping headcount to finance strategic investments.
Power constraints and supply-chain bottlenecks threaten the planned surge in AI data centres, creating a potential choke point for the AI boom. Analysts warn utilities and hyperscalers must scale capacity quickly to avoid project delays.
Shareholder pressure over Elon Musk’s proposed $1 trillion pay package is mounting, with major investors preparing to oppose at the AGM. The contentious vote could have governance ramifications and move Tesla’s stock.
Private equity and alternative assets are seeing renewed investor interest as wealthy allocators prepare for a long-term shift into alternatives. CFOs are under pressure to stay exit-ready while investing in AI to preserve returns.