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Market Summary

Markets opened the week jittery: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rebounded after Friday’s tariff-driven sell-off while the Dow lagged. Volatility spiked as tech and crypto led the moves, energy swung on oil swings, and safe-haven flows pushed gold higher. Traders are watching tariff headlines, AI earnings, and the government shutdown for direction.

A weekend escalation in U.S.-China trade rhetoric sent Asian markets tumbling as investors priced in a possible 100% U.S. tariff. Beijing vowed retaliation, raising the risk of a sustained global trade shock.

Figure of the Day

$19bn – Value liquidated from crypto markets in a single day during Friday’s sell-off.

Beijing defended and framed its new rare-earth export rules as national security measures while U.S. officials warn of deeper decoupling. The moves put a strategic choke point at the center of superpower economic conflict.

Crypto suffered a historic, leverage-driven sell-off that wiped billions from the market before a partial rebound. Liquidations and depegs exposed systemic risks in margin-heavy crypto trading.

Bullish

Samsung set for highest Q3 profit in three years as AI demand lifts chip prices

Samsung is poised for a strong Q3 as AI-driven chip demand pushes foundry and memory pricing higher, boosting group profit and validating the sector’s role in the broader AI investment cycle.
More on reuters.com

Markets oscillated on signals that Washington might step back from its toughest tariff posture, sending futures higher. Traders reacted to conciliatory remarks from the White House amid ongoing trade brinkmanship.

A fragile Gaza ceasefire held as plans to release hostages moved forward and world leaders prepared for a high-profile summit. The diplomatic push centred on prisoner swaps and humanitarian access.

Bearish

Treasury Wine Estates scraps 2026 guidance as China, US uncertainty bites

Treasury Wine cut guidance and halted its buyback amid mounting uncertainty over China demand and U.S. trade headwinds, sending shares to decade lows and raising questions about revenue visibility.
More on finance.yahoo.com

President Trump signalled the U.S. could send long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if Russia keeps up attacks, escalating the stakes in the conflict. The comments mark a possible shift toward deeper U.S. involvement.

The U.S. government shutdown deepened uncertainty for federal workers and services as the White House signalled tough personnel actions. Officials warned of deeper cuts the longer the impasse persists.

Regulatory Impact

SEC relaxed some IPO-prep rules to allow filings amid the U.S. shutdown; The Hague invoked emergency powers to take control of chipmaker Nexperia; China issued new rare-earth export controls while the Pentagon launched a $1bn critical-minerals stockpile initiative.

Regulatory rollbacks and proposals on banking rules promise to free up large pools of lending capacity, a potential boon for credit growth but a concern for financial stability advocates. Markets are parsing the implications.

Europe moved to curb foreign ownership of sensitive chip assets while Taiwan’s semiconductor heavyweight reassured investors. Governments and companies are jockeying to protect chip supply chains amid geopolitical strain.

Quote

“Don’t worry about China.”

— President Donald Trump

Nvidia remains the focal point of the AI investment boom even as rivals and customers struggle to square economics with ambition. Oracle’s AI push faces scrutiny over costs and near-term returns.

Washington is stockpiling critical minerals to reduce dependence on China while automakers race to lock domestic rare-earth supply chains. Defence and industry moves signal a strategic reshaping of metals markets.

A major Australian carrier confirmed a mass data leak affecting millions of customers, prompting fresh scrutiny of airline cybersecurity. The breach adds to a growing string of corporate data incidents this year.

Binance agreed to compensate users after a late-week depeg and platform disruption, and stablecoin strains highlighted fragility in dollar-pegged tokens. Exchanges moved to blunt fallout, but confidence remains fragile.

Chinese heavy-equipment firms are exploring Hong Kong listings as mainland institutions seek regional bases, signalling renewed capital-market activity despite political frictions. Investors are being courted as deals are teed up.

EU and U.S. negotiators sparred ahead of a vote to cut shipping emissions as port labour actions and industrial disputes weighed on logistics. Decarbonisation talks collide with operational pressures at major hubs.

Oil prices swung after tariff-driven market panic, with a sharp Friday sell-off giving way to a modest rebound as traders weighed demand risk against supply tightness. Energy markets are sensitive to policy signals.

Two high-profile Indian listings will test investor appetite while trading debuts elsewhere gauge market depth for blockbuster IPOs. The pipeline will be a key early test for Asian capital markets post-turmoil.

Takeover chatter at Hollywood’s big studios accelerated as Paramount courted Warner Bros. Discovery and the latter rebuffed a first approach. Media consolidation talk has returned to the top of strategic agendas.

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