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Bitcoin is having a moment and it’s tracking its own history.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high on Monday above $126,000, bringing its year-to-date gain to 35 percent. Nearly one-third of that has happened in October, a month fittingly dubbed “Uptober” among crypto investors for its strong seasonal momentum.
Bitcoin has closed higher across 9 of the last 10 Octobers with an average return of more than 21.4 percent.
That strength applies to the entire fourth quarter, too.
Over the last 10 years, bitcoin has seen an average return of 59.6 percent during the final three months of the year, nearly double the returns of the second-best quarter.
While asset prices have climbed across the board this year due to Fed rate cuts, dwindling recession fears, and investor optimism, bitcoin in particular is benefitting from record crypto ETF inflows, institutional enthusiasm and a pro-bitcoin White House — all of which make the bear case hard to articulate.
Bitcoin ETFs, for instance, have seen more than $3.2 billion in net inflows within the first week of October alone.
Meanwhile, new concerns on the government shutdown and old worries about currency debasement and fiscal deficits have pushed the “debasement trade” to the forefront, as Opening Bell Daily has reported.
Among other recent developments:
Unlike past cycles, bitcoin now has Wall Street’s full infrastructure behind it, as the table from Amberdata illustrates.
Institutional funds are absorbing billions in capital flows, public companies are adding it to their balance sheets, and the political tide has moved in its favor.
If the historical playbook holds, the coming weeks and months could bring plenty more record highs.
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Phil Rosen
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