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As the playoffs approach the Phillies will be looking to see who earns a spot on the playoff roster. Topper and the staff will also be looking to shore up the playoff bullpen rotation.
Initially, when they acquired Duran there seemed to be a pattern of which pitchers were used when, but recently it has gotten back to what feels like more of, eh whatever, this guy can go in.
If Rob Thomson has one weakness I believe it to be his pitching management. He doesn’t have the gut feel of when to keep a guy in and when to pull him. He doesn’t have a great feel for which bullpen arm should be used next. Part of this comes from his lefty/righty match-up belief. This makes the games and innings pitchers pitch vary because they are coming in to face hitters, not pitch a certain inning. Although I see the value in the matchups, I lean to the old school style and wish Topper would set a “bullpen rotation”.
Obviously Lidge had an insane season, but the 2008 Phillies had the end of games on lockdown. JC Romero in the 7th, Ryan Madson in the 8th, and Brad Lidge in the 9th. I would like to see the Phillies implement a version of this with their roster. A realistic option is having Strahm pitch the 7th, Kerkering the 8th, and Duran the 9th. Ideally, you would be able to use Banks and Robertson in a high leverage situation to close out an inning.
For example, Thomsons style leans more to bring in Strahm to get a lefty in the 6th, after pulling a starter. I believe the Phillies will need to rely on the other arms to get that job done. Strahm is one of the best arms we have, and he should be throwing full innings in the playoffs.
Bullpen Outlook
Even with the injury to Wheeler the Phillies have a strong pitching staff. Sanchez will be the Game 1 starter. The rest of the rotation hasn’t been set, but I can see Luzardo taking Game 2 at home and giving Ranger the road start for Game 3.
I am more interested in how the bullpen will be used than the starters. Last playoffs the bullpen fell apart against the Mets. Against Arizona, Thomson brought in a clearly gassed Kimbrel causing the Phillies to lose a game. In the World Series loss to the Astros Thomson decided to pull Wheeler, leading to a Yordan Alvarez home run. (I am still livid that he was pulled. They were winning, Wheeler should have pitched until his arm came off). The use of the bullpen in the playoffs is Thomson’s biggest weakness, and it is key to the Phillies making a run this postseason.
As I mentioned earlier, I like the idea of a Strahm 7th, Kerkering 8th, and Duran 9th. It gives our three best arms three innings to close out the game. It should be the closest thing to a lock for our bullpen. The risk here is if one of them has an off night it likely costs you the game.
Instead, Topper has gone the matchup route. Which could be favorable because you are maximizing your “odds”, but if those guys get into trouble the game usually balloons. It is pertinent to set a line up and then use the other arms like chess pieces to get you out of jams. Both Banks and Robertson are great options to come in with one or two outs in the inning and men on base. You also have Walker Buehler at your dispense, who could start a game if needed or come out of the pen in big spots, like he did last season with the Dodgers. It will also be interesting to see if Taijuan Walker receives any playing time. Walker was a suitable 5th starter for most of the season, but he doesn’t belong on a playoff mound.
Looking Ahead
With no Zack Wheeler (who has been historically good in the playoffs) and Nola not up to his usual level, the bullpen will be key to the Phillies playoff run. Duran has become shakier of late and he needs to settle in, but I fully believe in him to close out the 9th. My main worry is Orion Kerkering. He has been getting hit around and letting inherited runners score. The Phillies need him to be him again. He has series changing stuff, but if he is not on his game the bullpen becomes a lot weaker.
The Phillies cannot afford a bullpen performance like last postseason. They will likely need one of their non-big names to step up in a big spot. That is how you win championships. I think a structure to the bullpen will give the Phillies starters and hitters a great idea of what needs to be done the first six innings. The Phillies also lead the league in runs scored in the 7th or later. They can rely on Strahm, Kerkring, and Duran to hold the fort down, while the offense has potential to score late runs. The bullpen has been a key factor in the recent playoff shortcomings. We will see if the bullpen can hold up this time around.
Photo Credit: Hunter Martin/Getty Images
Categorized: Phillies
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Liam Mahoney
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