[ad_1]
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it came as little surprise to the international community: leaders from various countries were warning weeks in advance that Vladimir Putin was poised to launch his attack, and made increasingly desperate public pleas to the Russian leader to step back from the brink—until it was too late. As for the Baltic states that border Russia? They told me they’d been expecting such an action for years, and had encountered meddling and mischief-making from Putin themselves.
That’s partly why Estonia, whose eastern border abuts the west of Russia, has become Estonia has become an outsourced tech lab and factory for Ukraine’s frontline.
“If you are in war, your sense of urgency is different,” says Allan Martinson, a board member at the Estonian Founders’ Society, who has been around the country’s tech sector for 35 years. Martinson says that Estonia’s defense tech sector has coalesced in the last three years—since Russia crossed the border into Ukraine—and now accounts for around 10 percent of the total Estonian tech sector in terms of revenues.
The Ukrainian Connection
Around 150 companies operate in Estonia’s defense tech sector, and around a third of them are run by Ukrainians, says Martinson—many of whom are still based in their home country but have taken advantage of Estonia’s e-Residency program. (The program allows non-Estonian residents to set up companies in the country within minutes, thanks to its entirely digital government processes.)
The influx of Ukrainians looking to launch tech startups designed to help keep their country safe in a neighboring country has been a “very interesting contribution” to the Estonian tech sector, says Martinson. For Ukrainians, Estonia offers a link to the European Union and NATO member states—Ukraine is currently a member of neither entity. In fact, Ukraine’s attempts to sign up to both blocs is part of Putin’s tenuous public justification for his war.
“If there are teams that are building in the trenches to beat Russia right now, when they have a moment to think about, ‘Okay, how do we work with our NATO partners? How do you sell to them?’ then Estonia makes a lot of sense. It’s nearby,” says Sten Tamkivi, a former Skype executive who is now a partner at Plural, an Estonian-based tech investment firm.
Plural recently invested in Helsing, a defense tech firm that initially developed AI battlefield software, but which expanded into building autonomous strike drones late last year. Tamkivi calls it “the biggest tech breakout story in European defense right now. Helsing’s eastern NATO flank operations are run through Estonia.
The links are also deep between the two countries’ governments: the current advisor to Ukraine’s deputy prime minister on AI and digital transformation, Kristjan Ilves, is also the former chief information officer of the Estonian government.
So while Russia’s movement through Ukraine has stalled thanks to international support, including Estonia, those on the streets of Tallinn and in its tech sector are prepared for any incursion that could come.
“Mentally speaking, I don’t think if you ask people on the street today they will answer that they’re in war,” says Martinson. “But are they afraid of war? My own perception is that we recognize there is a danger, but we are also not afraid. We are preparing on a national level and individual level, with defense entrepreneurs.”
Just days before Martinson spoke to me, Russia flew fighter jets over Estonian airspace for 12 minutes, reaching within seconds of the capital, Tallinn, before being escorted out of the country by scrambled NATO jets. But for now, Estonia is a comparatively safe third-party location for Ukrainian entrepreneurs to base their business and its infrastructure.
Jumping through hoops
One snag in all of this is a NATO policy that requires all defense tech to serve a dual purpose in order to receive NATO funding, and to be part of any NATO state’s supply chain. The need to pretend to have a dual use for technologies that can save lives or defend borders means that encrypted radio communications tech firms are pretending their products could have use in the mining industry in order to attract investors’ eye.
“People are inventing these fake use cases to leave an image that they’re going to go to civilian use cases where they really should be focusing on building what’s necessary right now,” says Tamkivi. “It’s like, ‘Okay, let’s do defense, but let’s at least stay safe. Let’s say that nobody gets hurt,’” he says. “It’s this irrational or unrealistic picture of what is going on,” Tamkivi adds.
Still, Estonia, and NATO countries on the bloc’s eastern flank are more exposed than other NATO states to the problems that can come from a more belligerent Russia. So Estonians tend to believe that there needs to be more action taken to try and tackle the threat.
Ragnar Saas, co-founder of Estonian defense tech venture capital firm Darkstar, compares the sense of urgency to Ukraine, where innovations are coming thick and fast: “How fast tech is growing in defense is probably the fastest area I know,” he says. “Those guys in Ukraine work seven days a week, because you’re basically defending your home.”
Saas, whose wife is Ukrainian, and who sends convoys of vehicles from Estonia to Ukraine to help the war effort there, is bullish about Ukraine’s future—in large part because of its tech prowess, backed up by friendly nations like Estonia. “The biggest and best strategy for how Ukraine will win is by their tech,” he says. “They’re developing new weapons systems.”
The next front
Christoph Kühn, the German deputy director of NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, which is based in a square, squat building on the outskirts of the Estonian capital, says that in his personal belief NATO is already at war with Russia in the cybersphere. The secretary-general of the Estonian foreign ministry, Jonatan Vseviov, gave the same message: Estonia is at war with Russia already, and is willing to defend itself, including by mobilizing its tech sector.
Estonia’s government is responding to that threat. “For Estonia, helping Ukraine as much as possible is very important,” says Estonian prime minister Kristen Michal, who has been in post for a little over a year. “It’s a priority.” So much so that in the days after Estonia was buzzed by Russian warplanes, his cabinet approved devoting 5 percent of its entire budget to defense.
“I hope that we can be of assistance and contact with Ukraine, for their defensive industry to exchange intellectual property and different kinds of innovations which are happening there,” Michal says. “Conflicts are usually best for innovation,” he adds.
The country punches above its weight when it comes to tech innovation: Its unicorns include Skype, Wise, Bolt and Playtech, a leading gambling tech firm. And Estonians believe that they can put that power of innovation to purposes that do more than just benefit people. They can help protect Europe – and themselves.
“Five years ago, in the whole of Europe, I would suspect that nobody was thinking about the defense tech industry as part of their defense capabilities,” says prime minister Michal. “But right now, after what is happening in Ukraine, they really say, ‘When something happens, we need things to be done here. So we need innovation here. We need things to do here.’”
The prime minister’s word choice seems deliberate. At the minute, Estonia sees things as a case of ‘when’, not ‘if’.
[ad_2]
Chris Stokel-Walker
Source link