A Republican governor in California? It’s possible.

Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.

Democrats could be at risk of locking themselves out of California’s governor’s mansion. How is that possible in a place as blue as the Golden State? Here’s how.

Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited from running again, and Democrats are flooding the race, with at least 14 Democrats actively running campaigns. Early polls show former Rep. Katie Porter and current Rep. Eric Swalwell leading a pack that also includes former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa—all relatively serious candidates.

And that’s where it gets tricky. 

California uses what’s commonly called a jungle primary, where all candidates—Democratic, Republican, and otherwise—run on the same primary ballot. The top two vote-getters in that primary move on to the general election. 

Even if only half of those Democrats draw notable levels of support, there are just two viable Republicans currently in the mix: former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Those two can split the roughly 35% of the state that reliably votes Republican, but five or more well-known Democratic candidates will have to fight over the remaining 65%. That means the Republicans could wind up as the top two vote-getters, shutting Democrats out of the general election.

This isn’t just some thought experiment. A recent poll from Emerson College suggests this very thing could happen.

The two Republicans, Porter, and Swalwell each pull in roughly the same level of support in the poll, which was fielded in early December. Bianco leads the pack, with 13%, while Swalwell and Hilton tie for second place, at 12%, and Porter comes in fourth, at 11%. If the primary election’s results break down this way, and if Hilton scores just one more vote than Swalwell, Republicans will take over the governor’s mansion in the nation’s biggest state.

That said, there are two things to keep in mind about this poll. 

First, the plurality of California voters (31%) were “undecided” about whom they would support. That sizable chunk of the electorate is likely to have more Democratic votes than Republican ones, and it’s possible that if two Democratic candidates start to pull away from the pack, Republicans could end up getting shut out of the general election. 

That’s what happened in the state’s 2018 Senate race, when Democrats Dianne Feinstein and Kevin de León took the top two spots in the primary and faced off again in the general election. However, that election had an incumbent (Feinstein), and only two notable Democrats ran, leaving de León to pretty easily consolidate the anti-Feinstein Democratic vote. Compare that with next year, when there will be no incumbent and the Democratic options are basically endless.

The second thing to bear in mind about this poll is that the primary is on June 2, about six months away. That leaves plenty of time for Democrats to save themselves from themselves, and the best way to do that is for low-polling contenders to buck up and drop out—preferably sooner rather than later. In fact, a handful of candidates, including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, have already pulled out of the race.

And yet … another three fairly well-known Democrats are weighing runs: state Attorney General Rob Bonta, state Assemblymember Buffy Wicks, and billionaire mall magnate Rick Caruso, who ran for Los Angeles mayor in 2022 on a raft of endorsements from A-list celebrities and other rich assholes.

If all three joined, there could be more than seven notable Democrats in the race. No candidate has the name recognition of a Kamala Harris, who could have cleared the field if she’d decided to run, but also too many of them have just enough name recognition to heavily fracture the Democratic vote. You almost couldn’t engineer a better scenario for Republicans.

Now, it’s very likely some of these larger names do indeed bail before the primary—but it will take more than one or two doing so to nix the possibility of Democrats getting shut out. Currently, the top-polling Democrats in the field are all within the margin of error of the two Republicans, meaning that, for the moment, the danger is alive.

Any updates?

• The Trump administration is embroiled in a potential war-crimes scandal after twice striking a boat it accused of smuggling drugs—first, to neutralize the boat, and second, to kill the survivors of the first strike. And the latest Economist/YouGov poll finds that 59% of Americans see such follow-up strikes as unjustified. Only 22% see them as justified. That’s a surprising result given that the public narrowly supports the initial strikes: 48% approve of them, while 41% disapprove.

• President Donald Trump is pardoning with abandon—and the public hates it. The same Economist/YouGov poll finds that 66% of Americans oppose him having pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández (convicted of drug trafficking) and Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas (indicted on corruption charges). Another 67% disapprove of him having pardoned David Gentile, a private equity executive who defrauded thousands, according to prosecutors.

• FIFA invented a peace prize to give Trump because … well, it’s sort of a mystery, because FIFA oversees soccer. Either way, a plurality of Americans (44%) disapprove of Trump being given FIFA’s peace prize, according to YouGov. Thirty-five percent approve, though that’s due mostly to strong Republican support (69% approve).

Vibe check

The Trump administration’s approach to the housing affordability crisis, as much as it’s had one, has hit on two basic ideas: drive up building costs via tariffs, then blame those dastardly immigrants for wanting a roof over their heads. But new data suggests the public is skeptical of that approach.

The cost of building materials is seen as the most important reason housing prices have increased, with 84% of Americans saying it’s played a very or somewhat important role, according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll. 

Meanwhile, only 46% say immigration has had a similar impact. In fact, of the eight potential causes for high housing prices, it’s the only issue where less than half the country thinks it’s played an important role.

At the same time, Trump’s desire for lower interest rates is shared by a strong majority of the public. Seventy-three percent say high interest rates have played an important role in driving up housing costs, making it the second-most-important cause in the public’s eyes.

That said, the manner in which Trump has tried to get those lower interest rates isn’t popular. He has threatened Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and attempted to illegally fire a member of the Fed’s board. And yet only 26% of Americans trust him more than the Fed when it comes to handling the economy, per a September poll from The Economist/YouGov.

So it’s little surprise that when it comes to issues of housing and real estate, Trump has leaned into racism. For him, that’s just old hat.