Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.
On the third day of this new year, the U.S. military abducted Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro on orders from President Donald Trump. And while the American public’s initial response has been split, there’s good reason to think the abduction could hurt Trump in the long run—and perhaps especially in November’s midterm elections.
An average of 39% of Americans approve of the strike, while 42% disapprove, according to a Daily Kos analysis of the four polls fielded since Maduro’s capture. More telling, an average of 25% of Americans aren’t sure of their feelings about it. (The numbers do not sum 100% due to one survey excluding a “Not sure” response option.)
At first glance, the operation seems to be a wash for Trump, right? Not so fast.
Such high levels of uncertainty are common when it comes to foreign policy. Studies find Americans to have a fairly poor understanding of world affairs. For instance, a 2018 survey from Gallup found that just 47% of American adults could identify Afghanistan as the nation that provided safe haven to al-Qaida ahead of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Due to such lack of knowledge, people often make up their minds by looking to the opinions of others, whether they be people in their own life or public figures they trust.
Nevertheless, as the authors of one study about this “signaling” phenomena have said, “Members of the public may lack information about the world around them, but they do not lack principles.”
And that’s where Trump could find himself in trouble. Though public opinion on the abduction itself is split, data shows the public largely opposes Trump’s behavior around the operation and his stated intentions for what may come next.
For example, Trump didn’t seek congressional approval ahead of the strike, but 63% of Americans think he should have, according to a poll from The Washington Post/SSRS. And 69% want him to get Congress’ okay before conducting any more strikes, per a poll from YouGov/CBS News. Put simply, while the public is well aware of how often Trump breaks norms (and laws), they will surely have less tolerance for it if it leans to a greater conflict.
At the moment, though, the bigger threat to Trump and the Republican Party is whether he will stick to his word and “run” Venezuela post-Maduro. Only 1 in 3 Americans supports that idea, according to YouGov. And only 1 in 4 independents do—which matters greatly in an election year.
But it’s not just that Americans are broadly opposed to Trump’s imperialistic tendencies. They also don’t agree with his motives for the strike in Venezuela.
Despite originally claiming the raid was carried out to combat drug smuggling into the U.S., Trump has spent most of his time since then talking about one other thing, something that appears to have been his main motivation: Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
Venezuela has about 17% of the world’s proven oil reserves, more than any other nation. And when Trump was asked what would happen to that oil, he replied, “We’re going to run everything.” In a later interview with The New York Times, he held firm: “We’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil.”
How long will this thievery last? Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. would control Venezuela’s oil “indefinitely.” And the profits from all this? Well, according to Trump, the profits “will be controlled by me.”
As such, it’s little surprise that Americans see oil as the primary reason the U.S. conducted the operation, with 59% telling YouGov/CBS News that it had “a lot” to do with it—a higher share than any other motivation given in the survey. The catch is, Americans also don’t see that as a good reason for the strike. Only 1 in 4 Americans wants U.S. oil companies to take over Venezuela’s reserves, according to YouGov. Not even a majority of Republicans wants it to happen, with just 43% backing the president’s plan.
Now, there’s a good chance those numbers will move in Trump’s direction. Republicans should start to fall in line behind their leader, and independents may drift toward him as well—especially if this stolen oil drives down domestic gas prices. There is some evidence that a president’s approval rating correlates with the price at the pump—the higher the cost, the lower the rating, generally.
At the same time, it could also drag Trump down even further if the situation spirals out of control. Only 36% of Americans told YouGov they are confident in Trump’s ability to handle an international crisis. And nearly 3 in 4 Americans (72%), including a majority of Republicans (54%), are concerned the U.S. will get “too involved” in Venezuela, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
What might getting “too involved” look like? Sending in ground troops, for one. Trump is toying with the idea, and it seems like it’d be a necessity if the U.S. were to “run” the country, especially if this oversight is expected to last for “much longer” than one year, as Trump has said. However, the latest YouGov/Economist poll finds that just 26% of Americans support using military force to invade the nation.
Sparking a greater conflict would also be getting “too involved.” While the public is split on what to call the U.S.’s current situation with Venezuela, even former Trump adviser Steve Bannon titled an episode of his podcast “War With Venezuela.” And if the U.S. keeps seizing tankers flying Russian flags, there’s a not-so-small chance he’ll be proven right.
Trump sure seems to be gearing up for a bigger conflict, demanding in recent days that defense contractors speed up production and that Congress double the Pentagon’s budget. But as former President George W. Bush learned, there’s no quicker way to sink your administration and drag down America than by getting into a complicated, long-running foreign conflict you thought you’d win easily.
Any updates?
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In what will likely be a multiyear quest to retake the Senate, Democrats need to maintain every seat they hold, and a new poll shows them well positioned to hold their seat in New Hampshire. Democrat Chris Pappas, who is running unopposed, holds a 6-point lead over former Sen. John E. Sununu and an 18-point lead over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, the two notable Republicans in the race, according to the survey from NHJournal/Praecones Analytica. However, Pappas is still polling under 50% at the moment, so it’s not in the bag for him yet.
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To celebrate New Year’s Eve, the Department of Homeland Security promoted on social media the idea of deporting 100 million people, which is more than double the foreign-born population in the U.S. It also represents close to one-third of the overall population. Needless to say, a lot of people can do that math, and a new poll from YouGov finds that only 30% of the nation supports that level of deportations.
Vibe check
The past year seems to have taken its toll on Americans, who are entering 2026 even more pessimistic than they were heading into 2025, a year many would rather forget. A new Gallup survey finds that Americans’ predictions for 2026 are more negative across nearly every sector than they were going into last year.
The three sectors that saw the largest dips were related to finances: increasing employment, lower taxes, and economic prosperity. This aligns with other surveys that show Americans increasingly disillusioned with Trump’s stewardship of the economy.
In only two of 13 sectors—stock market increases and more labor strikes—did a majority of Americans give a positive prediction for 2026, though more strikes could be read as both good (increased union activity) and bad (increased exploitation of workers) for the year ahead.
Meanwhile, 70% or more expect that the federal budget deficit will increase, that China’s power will grow, that 2026 will be “a troubled year with much international discord,” and that political conflict will trounce political cooperation, with only 10% of Americans thinking 2026 will bring more cooperation than conflict.
Well, if you’re expecting the worst, then things can only get better, right?
Right?
Andrew Mangan
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