2026 Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will Win for Every Category

The front-runner for the Oscars is also likely to go home with the prize in this category. It’s notable that two actual musicals were not even nominated here this year, though: Wicked: For Good and The Testament of Ann Lee. The only real competition for One Battle in this category is Marty Supreme, another comedy that is tonally similar to Paul Thomas Anderson’s film. But the overwhelming popularity of the Leo DiCaprio drama should help it bring home the big prize of the night. —John Ross

Best Director, Motion Picture

PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

It would be very Globesy (and kind of electrifying, frankly) for a less expected candidate like Ryan Coogler or Jafar Panahi to take this category. But One Battle and PTA feel undeniable—not only because Anderson made the most zeitgeisty movie of the year, but also because his Globe narrative is a lot like his Oscar narrative. That’s right: Paul Thomas Anderson has, somehow, never actually won a Golden Globe. Hell, until Licorice Pizza, he hadn’t even been nominated for one. Especially as Globe voters strive to prove their cinematic bona fides and legitimacy, it seems very unlikely that they’ll pass up the opportunity to reward a more-than-worthy auteur who’s long overdue for this sort of recognition. —Hillary Busis

Best Actor, Motion Picture, Drama

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
PREDICTED WINNER: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

This is a close race between two worthy actors: Michael B. Jordan, for playing twins Smoke and Stack in the blockbuster Sinners, and Wagner Moura, for playing a professor on the run in the Brazilian film The Secret Agent. Will Globe voters do a repeat of last year and reward a Brazilian actor over more popular or widely seen performances? Fernanda Torres’s win for I’m Still Here was a total surprise on Globes night 2025—but now we know just how large a Brazilian contingent there is amongst Globe voters. On the one hand, voters might not want to look like they are repeating themselves by giving another acting award to a Brazilian lead. On the other hand, it’s tough to deny the magnitude of Moura’s performance, which already won him best actor in Cannes. I’m betting on Moura to take this one, but it’s a close race! —J.R.

Best Actress, Motion Picture, Drama

PREDICTED WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

This category hasn’t matched up with the eventual Oscar winner since 2020, when Renée Zellweger won for Judy. Instead, in recent years, it’s been sort of all over the place. (Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos? Really?) Then again, in the past two years, the eventual Oscar winners—Emma Stone for Poor Things and Mikey Madison for Anora—were competing in the comedy-musical category at the Globes. Jessie Buckley has been a very clear Oscar front-runner for her raw performance in Hamnet, so we’re guessing the Globe voters will align with that choice. But there’s always a chance they’ll want to shake things up by instead crowning a first-time nominee like Renate Reinsve or Eva Victor—or maybe giving some love to a movie star like three-time Globe winner Jennifer Lawrence. —R.F.

Best Actor, Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

PREDICTED WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia