The margin in Virginia’s state legislature is slim, and Tuesday’s election could tip the balance of power in the House of Delegates.
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The margin in Virginia’s state legislature is slim, and as polls close on Election Day in the state, incoming results could tip the balance of power in the House of Delegates.
And even though the state Senate seats were not on the ballot, the lieutenant governor holds the tiebreaking vote, which could come into play as Democrats hold just a 21-19 edge in the upper chamber.
The race for lieutenant governor could be the closest of the statewide contests, and of the 100 House of Delegates seats voters decided Tuesday, 10 were labeled “competitive” in the Virginia Public Access Project Index.
Virginia Public Access Project is a nonprofit that provides nonpartisan state government and election data.
Of those 10 competitive seats, three were in the Northern Virginia region.
House District 21 — Prince William County (partial)
Virginia’s 21st District pitted incumbent Democratic Del. Josh Thomas against Republican challenger Gregory Lee Gorham.
Among the top issues in the district, according to University of Mary Washington political science professor Stephen Farnsworth, were the economy and data centers, of which the district is home to dozens.
“There is a great challenge for figuring out a way to create the electric capacity that would be required from the data centers that are being proposed. A statewide mechanism would allow for a more effective calculation,” Farnsworth said. “There’s a great deal of frustration on the part of voters with respect to the potential downstream costs in terms of their own electric bills.”
Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the district in 2024’s presidential election, but Gov. Glenn Youngkin won in the state’s last election for governor.
Thomas ended the campaign with a significant edge in fundraising, collecting over $1 million to Gorham’s $21,570, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
“It is important to note the advantage of an incumbent in this environment. This district is drawn to be relatively competitive, but there is a huge financial challenge for a challenger in this race, and that creates a difficult environment to be heard, particularly in the very national politics-dominated conversation that’s been going on in Virginia this year,” Farnsworth said.
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House District 22 — Prince William County (partial)
Republican Del. Ian Lovejoy currently holds the seat in Virginia’s District 22, and faced a challenge from Democrat Elizabeth Guzman.
The district is home to neighborhoods such as Linton Hall, Bristow, Nokesville and Buckhall.
“I think the district in an ordinary election would be more favorable to Republicans, just in terms of where the lines are drawn. But Guzman is an experienced candidate, who has won a number of elections in Prince William County and has become a candidate for statewide office during the primaries. And those have created environments where she has a national donor network,” Farnsworth said.
Guzman represented Virginia’s 31st District, which includes parts of Prince William and Fauquier counties, for six years.
Before his time in the House of Delegates, Lovejoy was elected to two terms on the Manassas City Council.
Farnsworth said this race is no different from others across the state, in that it will be affected by the national political climate.
“In the same way that Republicans benefited from attacking the Biden economy a year ago, Republicans are on the defensive now when people are talking about the Trump economy,” Farnsworth said.
House District 65 — Fredericksburg and parts of Spotsylvania and Stafford counties
A bit farther from the D.C. metro, there was yet another competitive race in Virginia’s 65th District. Incumbent Democratic Del. Joshua Cole faced a challenge from Republican Sean Steinway.
Cole was first elected to the seat in 2019, but lost the seat in 2021 in a tight race. He won the seat back in 2023.
Before running for the seat, Steinway served in the Marines, Fairfax County Police Department and Stafford County Sheriff’s Department and worked with the Drug Enforcement Administration.
Cole ended the campaign with more than double the funds, raising $1.2 million to Steinway’s $576,082.
Former Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won the district, which includes all of Fredericksburg, by a sizable 9.3 points in 2024, but the district went for Youngkin by nearly 3 points in 2021 — the same election that resulted in Cole losing the seat.
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