King tides & new storm tracking toward NC mean flooding, rain. Latest forecast

A coastal low system expected to develop in coming days could bring rain, winds and dangerous coastal conditions to North Carolina.

Forecasters are uncertain about the intensity of specific impacts as of Wednesday, Oct. 8, because the system is a few days out from reaching North Carolina, David Glenn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Morehead City, told The News & Observer in a phone call.

However, the coast could get strong winds up to 40 mph with higher gusts on Saturday, Oct. 11 and Sunday, Oct. 12, and possibly into Monday, Oct. 13, Glenn said.

Rainfall totals for the coast — as well as central North Carolina — depend on the track of the low. If it stays farther offshore, rainfall amounts will be lower.

Along the Outer Banks, including Dare County, Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island, the current forecast calls for 2-4 inches of rain from Friday night, Oct. 10, through Sunday, Glenn said.

Rainfall totals could be higher. But as of Wednesday, it’s too early to predict how much precipitation the coast could get from the coastal low, Glenn said.

Coastal flood advisories, watch already in place

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Newport/Morehead City is already issuing warnings of hazardous weather for the North Carolina coast.

• A coastal flood advisory is in place from 7 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 9 until 8 a.m. Monday for parts of the northern Outer Banks, Carteret County, coastal Onslow County, Beaufort County, Pamlico County and southern Craven County.
• A coastal flood watch is in place from Thursday morning until Monday morning. Up to 2-4 feet of inundation above ground level is expected along beaches, the Pamlico Sound and adjacent tidal creeks, and Ocracoke Island.

What is a king tide?

A king tide, which refers to higher-than-normal astronomical tides, is affecting the coast through at least Sunday. In addition to that, strong northeasterly winds are expected in coming days. Together, these conditions are expected to create coastal flooding and large surf.

Beachgoers should also be wary of moderate to high risks of rip currents this week and into the weekend, Glenn said.

Impacts for central NC and the Triangle

As of Wednesday, there was still uncertainty about how much rain central North Carolina could get from the coastal system.

If the center hugs the coast or touches the Outer Banks, heavier rain and gustier winds would affect areas further inland, said Laura Helock, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Raleigh. But if the center of the system remains farther offshore, the impacts would be less severe.

Rainfall and winds will be more significant toward the eastern parts of the state. But rainfall totals in central North Carolina could be between 0.5 inches and 1 inch from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.

That makes flooding unlikely, but possible in areas that receive locally higher amounts of precipitation.

Most of the rain in central North Carolina should be along and east of U.S. 1, Helock said.

Parts of central North Carolina could get gusty winds up to 30 mph Saturday and Sunday. In the Triangle, those winds would be slightly weaker.