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We will likely see “Imelda” form over the weekend in the Bahamas, and there are a lot of questions about it.
To the best of our ability, we’ll spend time answering some of the questions you may have.
Q. Is this anything like Helene?
A. Absolutely not. I understand why that question is being asked. It’s happening around the same time as Helene, and people are on edge. However, Helene was historic and was preceded by multiple days of relentless rain.
This storm won’t even make landfall, lessening the impacts to the state.
Q. What makes this challenging?
This storm – in the last two days – has caused me to put in double the time to making a forecast.
It’s because 1) it has the potential to be impactful to portions of the Carolinas and 2) it’s yet to form a neatly-defined center. That means that models flip flop and struggle to latch onto a defined solution.
Instead, we follow trends. The trends are our friends lately.
Q. What are the latest trends?
A. Meteorologists Aimee Wilmoth, Mike Maze and Kat Campbell first noted this trend on Friday. The trend is for our potential tropical system to slow/stall on its approach to the South Carolina coastline Monday and Tuesday. This would allow time for Hurricane Humberto to the east to catch up, potentially pulling it away from the U.S. Tuesday night and Wednesday.
While we’re hopeful for a trend like this, it would still mean some inland impacts Monday and Tuesday.
Q. What would that trend mean for us?
A. If this trend continues, we would get a decent amount of rain with the highest totals in our southern spots. The latest forecast data is converging about an inch to three inches of rain from north to south. Though we need rain, that could produce localized flooding south of the Triangle. This is tropical moisture, after all.
This trend, however, would mean the highest rain totals (widespread 4″+) would be toward the coast. It would also back off the wind gusts and reduce the chance for any embedded tornadoes, due to lack of instability.
If, by some chance, this storm were to make landfall in South Carolina and move inland, you’d see greater impacts.
Q. What is the risk for flash flooding?
A. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center issues daily “Excessive Rainfall Outlooks,” which are essentially your Flood Risk maps. For Monday and Tuesday, your flood risk is “Low” or localized. That threat is slightly higher for the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.
Q. I have doctor’s appointments, flights out of town, etc. What should I do?
A. As impact-based as we strive to be, there are certain things that are out of our control/guidance (ie. school schedules, flights, etc.). For the time being, I wouldn’t go canceling any appointments.
Q. Where should I go for updates?
We have several stories posted with updates. These include:
- We’re tracking the latest conditions across our state here.
- Our weather forecast story that is updated at least four times a day.
- We track the tropics throughout Atlantic hurricane season. Find our interactive hurricane track and anything active in the Atlantic here, updated at least twice a day.
- If you prefer visuals, we’ve put together a gallery with the most up-to-date weather graphics.
We also have the hurricane tracking section of wral.com and the WRAL Weather app.
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