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- In September 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Chicago was the “most dangerous city in the world” and “the murder capital of the world.”
- According to WorldAtlas’ 2025 ranking of the most dangerous cities according to their crime rates per capita, the only U.S. city in the top 10 was Memphis. Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, was at the top of the list, while Chicago was ranked 40th, below several other U.S. cities.
- As of 2023, the FBI’s data did not list Chicago among the top 10 U.S. “cities with the largest number of violent crimes per 100,000 residents.”
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According to the city’s own data, there were 274 homicides in Chicago between Jan. 1 and Aug. 31, 2025, compared with 399 during the same period in 2024. In January 2025, the Chicago Tribune reported a 2024 total of 573 homicides in the city, making it “the third consecutive year of decreasing homicides in Chicago.”
In early September 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Chicago was the “most dangerous city in the world” amid plans to send the National Guard into the city to further his administration’s immigration crackdown, despite vocal opposition from local leadership.
Trump’s comments were inspired by shootings that occurred in Chicago over the Labor Day weekend, in which eight people were killed and 50 injured, according to The Associated Press. In a Sept. 2 Truth Social post, Trump wrote:
At least 54 people were shot in Chicago over the weekend, 8 people were killed. The last two weekends were similar. Chicago is the worst and most dangerous city in the World, by far. Pritzker needs help badly, he just doesn’t know it yet. I will solve the crime problem fast, just like I did in DC. Chicago will be safe again, and soon. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Social media users on X (archived) and Facebook (archived) amplified the president’s statement.
An hour later, Trump doubled down and posted: “CHICAGO IS THE MURDER CAPITAL OF THE WORLD!”
(Donald Trump on Truth Social)
Despite Trump’s claim that Chicago was the “murder capital of the world” and “the worst and most dangerous city in the world, by far,” statistical data suggested otherwise.
We did not to give this claim a rating because “dangerous” is subjective and difficult to quantify with hard data. However, none of the violent-crime and homicide statistics referenced in this piece suggested Chicago could reasonably be considered “the murder capital of the world.”
What crime data showed
According to the FBI’s data as of 2023, collated by Statista, Chicago did not appear in the list of top 10 “cities with the largest number of violent crimes per 100,000 residents.” (Statista did note that “due to the FBI’s transition to a new crime reporting system, not all law enforcement agencies submitted crime data to the FBI for 2023. As a result, figures may not accurately reflect the total number of crimes.”)
Additionally, the state of Illinois appeared sixth on Statista’s list of “total number of homicides in the United States in 2023,” trailing California, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, according to data from the FBI (with a similar note added).
The Council on Criminal Justice, a self-described independent and nonpartisan organization that serves “as a center of gravity and incubator of policy and leadership for the criminal justice field,” reported that “in the first half of 2025 (January-June), Chicago’s homicide rate was 33% lower than it was for the same period in 2024,” which was “twice the average decrease of 17% seen in the 30 large cities in CCJ’s study sample that reported homicide data.”
According to the city’s data reporting, there were 274 homicides in Chicago between Jan. 1 and Aug. 31, 2025, compared with 399 during the same time frame in 2024.
In Jan. 2025, the Chicago Tribune reported a 2024 total of 573 homicides in the city, making it the city’s third straight year of decreased homicides. The newspaper added: “After a two-year spike during the pandemic and national outrage over police accountability, Chicago began to see a decline in homicides in 2022. Homicide and nonfatal shooting totals fell again in 2023, but the city was roiled by robbery and carjacking crews responsible for an overall uptick in violence.”
The spike in homicide rates during the pandemic did not occur just in Chicago. Homicide rates across the U.S. “went up an estimated 31% in 2020 and another 3% in 2021, resulting in the highest national homicide rate since the 1990s,” according to a Nov. 2022 Bloomberg article.
That data was supported by Statista’s collation of FBI data for violent crime in general since 1990, which included “murder, nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault.”
However,
WorldAtlas’ 2025 ranking of the most dangerous cities in the world — according to their crime rates per capita based on survey data collected by Numbeo, an independent website with “up-to-date information on the cost of living, quality of life, and various socio-economic factors across cities and countries worldwide” — listed Memphis, Tennessee, as the only U.S. city in its top 10. Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, was top of the list.
Chicago came in at No. 40, positioning the city below Detroit, Baltimore, Albuquerque, St. Louis, Oakland, New Orleans, Milwaukee and Philadelphia.
For context, there may have been some discrepancies in how various agencies reported their data. For instance, the Chicago Tribune pointed out that the city’s reported “homicide figures do not include killings that occurred in self-defense or in other circumstances not measured in Chicago police statistics.” Further, the newspaper added that “homicide data from the Illinois State Police, which patrols the city’s expressways, also is not included” in its report. As stated above, Statista also stipulated that its figures “may not accurately reflect the total number of crimes.”
Despite these caveats, statistics still suggested that calling Chicago “the most dangerous city in the world” or “the murder capital of the world” was, in the most generous interpretation of the data, misleading.
Sources
“8 Killed and 50 Wounded in Chicago over Long Weekend as Trump Plans Federal Deployment.” AP News, 2 Sep. 2025, https://apnews.com/article/chicago-shootings-labor-day-58c2b6678c89d340fb5ab699bf142247.
“Are Republicans Right About America’s Crime Wave? Let’s Look at the Data.” Bloomberg.Com, 4 Nov. 2022. www.bloomberg.com, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-04/midterm-elections-the-crime-wave-is-real-especially-in-big-cities.
“Chicago Homicides in 2024: 573 People Slain. Here’s How That Compares with Previous Years.” Chicago Tribune, 3 Jan. 2025, https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/01/03/chicago-homicides-2024/.
“Chicago Prepares for an Influx of National Guard Troops and Immigration Agents.” AP News, 3 Sep. 2025, https://apnews.com/article/chicago-immigrants-military-crime-trump-9410aba46898ba3c541fa6c60ddcef69.
Crime in Chicago: What You Need to Know – Council on Criminal Justice. 26 Aug. 2025, https://counciloncj.org/crime-in-chicago-what-you-need-to-know/.
“Guard Not Needed in Chicago, Pritzker Tells AP during Tour of City to Counter Trump’s Crime Claims.” AP News, 28 Aug. 2025, https://apnews.com/article/chicago-violence-crime-pritzker-national-guard-trump-2023e25445c45a3f0f4d3513e8eb2ac4.
Irshad Altheimer, Ph.D. 2024 Homicide Statistics for 24 U.S. Cities. RIT College of Liberal Arts – Center for Public Safety Initiatives , 2025, https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/.
“Most Dangerous Cities in the World 2025.” Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/. Accessed 4 Sep. 2025.
“Murders in the U.S. by State 2023.” Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/195331/number-of-murders-in-the-us-by-state/. Accessed 4 Sep. 2025.
“The Most Dangerous Cities In The World.” WorldAtlas, 12 Jun. 2025, https://www.worldatlas.com/cities/the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world.html.
“U.S. – Most Dangerous Cities 2023.” Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/217685/most-dangerous-cities-in-north-america-by-crime-rate/. Accessed 4 Sep. 2025.
Violence Reduction – Victims of Homicides and Non-Fatal Shootings | City of Chicago | Data Portal. https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Safety/Violence-Reduction-Victims-of-Homicides-and-Non-Fa/gumc-mgzr/explore/query/SELECT%0A%20%20%60case_number%60%2C%0A%20%20%60date%60%2C%0A%20%20%60block%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_primary%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_primary%60%2C%0A%20%20%60gunshot_injury_i%60%2C%0A%20%20%60unique_id%60%2C%0A%20%20%60zip_code%60%2C%0A%20%20%60ward%60%2C%0A%20%20%60community_area%60%2C%0A%20%20%60street_outreach_organization%60%2C%0A%20%20%60area%60%2C%0A%20%20%60district%60%2C%0A%20%20%60beat%60%2C%0A%20%20%60age%60%2C%0A%20%20%60sex%60%2C%0A%20%20%60race%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_fbi_cd%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_fbi_cd%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_fbi_descr%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_fbi_descr%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_iucr_cd%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_iucr_cd%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_iucr_secondary%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_iucr_secondary%60%2C%0A%20%20%60homicide_victim_first_name%60%2C%0A%20%20%60homicide_victim_mi%60%2C%0A%20%20%60homicide_victim_last_name%60%2C%0A%20%20%60month%60%2C%0A%20%20%60day_of_week%60%2C%0A%20%20%60hour%60%2C%0A%20%20%60location_description%60%2C%0A%20%20%60state_house_district%60%2C%0A%20%20%60state_senate_district%60%2C%0A%20%20%60updated%60%2C%0A%20%20%60latitude%60%2C%0A%20%20%60longitude%60%2C%0A%20%20%60location%60%0AWHERE%0A%20%20caseless_one_of%28%60victimization_primary%60%2C%20%22HOMICIDE%22%29%0A%20%20AND%20%60date%60%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20BETWEEN%20%222024-01-01T14%3A14%3A52%22%20%3A%3A%20floating_timestamp%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20AND%20%222024-08-31T14%3A14%3A52%22%20%3A%3A%20floating_timestamp%0AORDER%20BY%20%60date%60%20DESC%20NULL%20FIRST/page/filter. Accessed 4 Sep. 2025.
Violence Reduction – Victims of Homicides and Non-Fatal Shootings | City of Chicago | Data Portal. https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Safety/Violence-Reduction-Victims-of-Homicides-and-Non-Fa/gumc-mgzr/explore/query/SELECT%0A%20%20%60case_number%60%2C%0A%20%20%60date%60%2C%0A%20%20%60block%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_primary%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_primary%60%2C%0A%20%20%60gunshot_injury_i%60%2C%0A%20%20%60unique_id%60%2C%0A%20%20%60zip_code%60%2C%0A%20%20%60ward%60%2C%0A%20%20%60community_area%60%2C%0A%20%20%60street_outreach_organization%60%2C%0A%20%20%60area%60%2C%0A%20%20%60district%60%2C%0A%20%20%60beat%60%2C%0A%20%20%60age%60%2C%0A%20%20%60sex%60%2C%0A%20%20%60race%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_fbi_cd%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_fbi_cd%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_fbi_descr%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_fbi_descr%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_iucr_cd%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_iucr_cd%60%2C%0A%20%20%60victimization_iucr_secondary%60%2C%0A%20%20%60incident_iucr_secondary%60%2C%0A%20%20%60homicide_victim_first_name%60%2C%0A%20%20%60homicide_victim_mi%60%2C%0A%20%20%60homicide_victim_last_name%60%2C%0A%20%20%60month%60%2C%0A%20%20%60day_of_week%60%2C%0A%20%20%60hour%60%2C%0A%20%20%60location_description%60%2C%0A%20%20%60state_house_district%60%2C%0A%20%20%60state_senate_district%60%2C%0A%20%20%60updated%60%2C%0A%20%20%60latitude%60%2C%0A%20%20%60longitude%60%2C%0A%20%20%60location%60%0AWHERE%0A%20%20caseless_one_of%28%60victimization_primary%60%2C%20%22HOMICIDE%22%29%0A%20%20AND%20%60date%60%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20BETWEEN%20%222025-01-01T14%3A14%3A52%22%20%3A%3A%20floating_timestamp%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20AND%20%222025-09-04T14%3A14%3A52%22%20%3A%3A%20floating_timestamp%0AORDER%20BY%20%60date%60%20DESC%20NULL%20FIRST/page/filter. Accessed 4 Sep. 2025.
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Joey Esposito
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