Colorado State University updates Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Researchers at Colorado State University updated their 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Wednesday morning, and are still calling for above normal activity. The initial forecast released in early April also predicted above normal activity.

The updated forecast calls for 16 named storms, including the 4 that have already formed. Of those 16 storms, 8 are expected to become hurricanes and 3 are expected to reach major hurricane strength. These are the same numbers from CSU’s last update back in July.

This is a slight reduction from CSU’s original forecast released in April, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

Despite the above-normal forecast, CSU notes lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Although sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Atlantic have warmed above normal over the past few weeks, there is some uncertainty.

Researchers say, “the primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over the past several weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June–July are associated with less active hurricane seasons.”

The ENSO phase is neutral right now, and strong trade winds over the central tropical Pacific for the next few weeks will likely reduce the potential for a transition to El Niño conditions compared to what was previously thought. The tropics are typically more active during El Niño years. 

Here is the list of names being used for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, last used in 2019. Dexter is the only new name on the list after Dorian was retired for causing extensive death and destruction in the Bahamas, Southeast U.S. and eastern Canada.

The CSU forecast matches NOAA’s hurricane season forecast, which also calls for above normal activity. You can track the latest activity in the tropics here.

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