The horse racing broadcaster has five selections on offer as the Ebor meeting at York reaches its third day.
Day 3 of the York Ebor meeting features a nice blend of speed and stamina and two very different looks to the sprint and staying divisions.
The feature race is the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 5f where a large field, including a pair of two-year-olds, line up. The domestic bunch of sprinters are far from vintage and the Group 1s this season have either been won by outsiders—American Affair (11-1 King Charles III Sprint), Time For Sandals (25-1 Commonwealth Cup), and No Half Measures (66-1 July Cup)—or have been at the mercy of overseas sprinters, with Lazzat beating Satono Reve in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee.
It makes for a competitive race, and the inclusion of a pair of two-year-olds in Lady Iman and Spicy Marg lends an extra dimension. The weight allowance they receive is significant: 1 stone 8 lbs from three-year-olds and a further 2 lbs from the older horses. The last juvenile to win was Kingsgate Native in 2007, and since then 13 others have tried and failed, with three making the frame—most recently The Platinum Queen in 2022. Lady Iman has always been speedy, and connections have correctly identified this as her best chance of Group 1 success (there are no two-year-old 5f Group 1s in the calendar), as she does not possess a lot of physical scope to progress much this year. The fast ground will not place great physical demands on her, and Joe Fanning, one of the few senior riders who can comfortably do 8st 2lb, would certainly be a very popular pilot to win his first Group 1 since Subjectivist turned over Stradivarius in the 2021 Gold Cup at Ascot.
A rare beacon of consistency amongst the sprinters has been SHE’S QUALITY 9/1 (15:35 York), who has posted four consecutive second places in her four 5f Group races this season from the Palace House through to the King George Qatar Stakes, where she also showed her tactical versatility, finishing off well having been ridden more patiently. Jack Davison’s horses are in good form, and in a division that has been anything but predictable, she looks the most solid option.
The staying aspect of the card is provided by the Group 2 Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup over 2m, and this is far more straightforward. After Kyprios departed the scene, TRAWLERMAN 4/7 (14:25 York) swiftly picked up the mantle with a dominant all-the-way win in the Gold Cup. The stayers remain a relatively static bunch, and until he meets Leger-bound Scandinavia, there seems no one able to threaten him. He is obviously a very short price, but it is fully justified.
Outside the main action, ‘recency bias’ looks to have thrown up a couple of horses that look over the odds. Recency bias is overstating the importance of the last result in comparison to a larger sample over time. I am a Crewe fan, proudly sitting top of League Two after winning our first four matches. All of a sudden, the pessimism of pre-season has been thrown out of the window, and now a failure to reach the play-offs come the season’s end will be viewed as a disappointment. If we lose to Gillingham on Saturday, all of a sudden the ‘bubble will have burst’, whereas the actuality is a side on an upward trajectory from the end of last season (hardly difficult!).
In racing terms, being able to discount an uncharacteristic last-time-out poor effort—reason or not—in comparison to a generally consistent profile can lead to a decent betting opportunity, while an easy victory rather out of the blue may not be entirely reliable at what can be an overly tight price.
First to fit the profile is CHILLINGHAM 14/1 (13:50 York), who was never sighted over course and distance last time. Prior to that, he had been narrowly beaten in the Queen Mother’s Cup (subsequently awarded the race) and placed here off 96 back in May 2024. He can be keen but is drawn to get cover, and at a double-figure price looks worthy of support.
The other is COMICAL POINT 11/1 (15:00 York), who runs in a shallow-looking Group 2 Gimcrack. With Wise Approach, the odds-on ante-post favourite, electing to head to the Morny in France instead, this is a weak renewal. Comical Point has an excuse for a deplorable run at Newmarket as he got very upset beforehand and just took off in front when the race began. This contrasted markedly with a very professional win on debut at Salisbury and a good run at Ascot in the Norfolk. Clearly, it would be worth waiting until seeing him in the paddock beforehand, but no doubt the Balding yard will be more mindful of the potential of a repeat and take steps accordingly.
Andrew Balding also has a leading chance in the last of five ITV races with ZGHARTA 3/1 (16:10 York). She ended what had been a lean spell for the yard when winning at Newmarket in May, and both her subsequent runs in handicap company can be upgraded to a degree—on tempo at Ascot and trouble in running at Goodwood. She is one of a couple of progressive three-year-olds who look to have the measure of their older rivals.
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