BOSTON — Massachusetts is facing a fiscal “time bomb” from the cost providing welfare benefits for tens of thousands of migrants who’ve arrived in the state over the past year amid a historic surge of immigration, according to a new report.
The report, released by the conservative Washington, D.C.-based Center for Immigration Studies, found the estimated 50,000 migrants who have arrived in the Bay State since 2021 are likely to become a major burden on taxpayers in the short, and long term, as they qualify for public welfare and other benefits.
“The long-term costs are going to be enormous for this new cohort of arrivals,” Jessica Vaughan, the center’s executive director, said during a live-streamed briefing on the report. “That is not offset by federal funding or from the tax contribution that they are required to make.”
She points out that migrants are eligible for some welfare programs in Massachusetts upon entry and others may become eligible for welfare five years after entry, regardless of their immigration status. That will mean a fiscal “time bomb” for the state beginning in 2026 when many of those new arrivals has become eligible for public benefits, Vaughn.
The report also claims “illegal and inadmissible” migrants — which the center estimates number more than 350,000 in Massachusetts — pay less in taxes than they consume in welfare benefits and other social services.
Nearly 60% of all households headed by migrants use at least one welfare program, compared with about 40% of households headed by U.S. Citizens, the report claimed.
On average, there is a lifetime net fiscal cost to American taxpayers of $68,000 for each “illegal and inadmissible” migrant, according to the report’s authors.
Massachusetts expects to spend nearly $1 billion — roughly three times what was budgeted — on emergency shelters for homeless families this fiscal year. Budget writers expect to spend a similar amount on migrants next fiscal year.
In April, the federal government announced it will cover some of the cost of housing migrants in Massachusetts’ emergency family shelters. The feds have agreed to pay up to $95 million in 2024 and provide additional funding on following years for families eligible for Medicaid in state shelter.
But report’s authors said while federal funding will help “bail out” the state in the short term, the unprecedented influx of migrants “will prove to be a significant burden for Massachusetts taxpayers over the long run” from costs for schooling, social services, medical care and public safety.
“The cost of temporary housing and shelters is enormous — but it pales in comparison to the costs that will accumulate in the future if those in the temporary shelters today remain in the commonwealth for the long term,” they wrote. “These costs will accrue even if these migrants are able to find jobs, whether with a work permit or through illicit employment.”
Earlier this week, Gov. Maura Healey announced changes to the state’s shelter system that will give priority for beds to Massachusetts families and set a five-day cap on how long people can stay in “overflow” sites.
Beginning next month, the state’s emergency shelter program will prioritize families who are homeless because of a no-fault eviction, are a veteran or have a family member who has served in the military, or have become homeless because of circumstances “beyond their control” such as a flood, fire or natural disaster.
“We have been saying for months now that the rapid growth of our Emergency Assistance shelter system is not sustainable,” Healey said in a statement announcing the changes. “Massachusetts is out of shelter space, and we simply cannot afford the current size of this system.”
Christian M. Wade covers the Massachusetts Statehouse for North of Boston Media Group’s newspapers and websites. Email him at cwade@cnhinews.com