The 2026 Senate midterms should be Republicans’ to lose. With a favorable map, a three-seat majority, and Vice President JD Vance as the tie-breaker, Democrats would need to net four seats to flip the chamber—an undeniably steep climb.
The challenge is obvious: Democrats must defend an open seat in Michigan and a toss-up seat in Georgia while also trying to unseat at least three Republicans, which would require wins in states President Donald Trump carried in 2024.
Yet, oddly enough, the mood in Democratic circles is optimistic. Party strategists point to a strong recruiting class, recent statewide wins, and the possibility that the political environment could shift further in their favor.
Time isn’t exactly on anyone’s side. The 2026 general election may feel distant, but the fight for Senate control is less than a year away. With that in mind, here’s a rundown of the races that we think will define the battle for the majority.
Georgia (D)
Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff remains Democrats’ most endangered incumbent, and Republicans are gearing up to pour tens of millions into defeating him.
But the GOP’s path got messier the moment Gov. Brian Kemp decided not to run, leaving a vacuum that quickly filled with Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, along with former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley.
And Kemp has only complicated things since then, throwing his weight behind Dooley instead of either lawmaker—and triggering what’s expected to be a volatile primary.
“Primaries tend to get competitive,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in November, regarding the brewing intraparty fight. “But we still think in Georgia, once the dust settles there and the smoke clears, that that’s gonna be a really good opportunity for us.”
Ossoff, meanwhile, is sitting on a formidable war chest and charting his own path. He voted against the deal to reopen the government, a move that suggests he’s betting on keeping progressive voters firmly in his corner heading into what’s likely to be one of the most expensive races of the cycle.
Maine (R)
Few primaries have exploded as quickly as the emerging Democratic fight in Maine, where the party is aiming to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
Gov. Janet Mills entered the race in October, after months of behind-the-scenes recruiting by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. But her path to the nomination isn’t guaranteed. Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and military veteran backed by progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders, has stormed the contest, quickly capturing attention and momentum.
The question now is whether Platner’s surge can last—or if it will fizzle under scrutiny. His campaign has faced blowback over a tattoo he had resembling a Nazi symbol, which he has since had covered up, as well as a series of offensive posts on Reddit.
While that may leave Mills as the steadier option for Democrats, she comes with her own complications. She is 77 years old and running for a six-year term at a time when many in the party are calling for generational change.
Still, Maine’s political landscape offers Democrats reason for cautious optimism. Collins’ approval ratings have slipped since her previous reelection, and the state favored former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 percentage points in 2024.
Even so, Collins remains a formidable incumbent, making this a challenging—and closely watched—race for Democrats in 2026.
North Carolina (Open R)
Republicans are bracing to defend an open Senate seat in North Carolina after Sen. Thom Tillis announced his retirement in June, citing clashes with Trump over the president’s tax and spending law. And Tillis’ exit has given Democrats a real opening.
Into that breach steps former Gov. Roy Cooper, Democrats’ top recruit for 2026. Cooper formally launched his campaign in July, and his statewide track record is impeccable, winning all six of the previous statewide contests he’s run in. And so far, polls acknowledge that Cooper, with his far higher name recognition, is the early favorite.
On the Republican side, former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley has entered the fray. Endorsed by Trump, Whatley is unlikely to face a costly primary, though he may face other obstacles. He is not as well-known as Cooper, and he lacks a distinctive political brand, which could easily hamper his candidacy in a year not expected to favor Republicans.
That said, the Tar Heel State remains competitive. Trump carried it in all three of the most recent presidential elections. But with Tillis gone and Cooper in the race, the GOP’s grip on the seat is showing early signs of slipping.
New Hampshire (Open D)
Democrats face a key defensive battle after three-term Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced in March that she would retire. The seat opens the door to a familiar lineup of candidates in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent presidential cycles.
In a quirky twist, the GOP primary pits two former senators against each other: John E. Sununu, who lost this seat to Shaheen in 2008, and Scott Brown, who previously served in Massachusetts.
Sununu has consolidated support within the party, reflecting the broader effort to coalesce around a single candidate. A November poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center suggests he is the GOP’s strongest option for the general election.
Still, challenges remain. A Republican presidential candidate has not won the state since the 2000 election. And whoever wins the Republican primary will likely face Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, a candidate with deep family roots in the state and a record of winning tough races. Polls currently show Pappas holding a slight edge against Sununu and a large one against Brown. If elected, Pappas would become the first out gay man in the Senate.
However, Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is popular, will also be up for reelection in 2026, which could complicate Democrats’ path to victory.
In an open race, anything is possible.
Ohio (R)
In Ohio, Democrats have secured the recruit they wanted most: former Sen. Sherrod Brown.
First elected in 2006, Brown survived two grueling reelection fights even as Ohio drifted rightward at the presidential level. In 2018, he beat GOP Rep. Jim Renacci by nearly 7 points in a state that Trump had carried two years earlier and would carry again two years later. But Brown’s run ended last cycle, when he lost to now-Sen. Bernie Moreno.
Brown is attempting a comeback against Sen. Jon Husted, whom Republican Gov. Mike DeWine appointed to fill Vance’s seat after he became vice president. Both Brown and Husted are cruising through their primaries, setting up what is sure to be an expensive showdown in the general election.
Husted, armed with Trump’s endorsement, hauled in $3.7 million in the third quarter of 2025—“the highest amount ever raised by a Republican candidate at this stage of a U.S. Senate race in Ohio,” his team boasted. But Brown’s fundraising dwarfed it: He pulled in a massive $8 million in just six weeks.
Whoever wins in 2026 will serve only the remaining two years of Vance’s term and will also have to face voters in 2028 for a full six-year term.
Michigan (Open D)
Michigan is once again shaping up as a major battleground. The state narrowly backed Trump in 2024, and its Senate seat is now open after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced he would not run again.
Democrats are bracing for a competitive primary that spans the party’s ideological range. Four-term Rep. Haley Stevens is seen as the establishment favorite, while state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and progressive organizer Abdul El-Sayed are pitching themselves as candidates who can break out of that mold.
Republicans, meanwhile, have consolidated support early. Trump has endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers for his second Senate run, after losing a razor-thin race to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024. Rogers, an Army veteran, is pro-tariff and doesn’t want the government negotiating drug prices to make them cheaper.
However, despite Trump winning Michigan twice, that success hasn’t translated downballot. Michigan has been a Senate mirage for the GOP, which hasn’t won a seat there in more than three decades.
For now, Michigan is one of the true toss-ups on the map—an open question in a state that rarely makes anything easy.
Alex Samuels
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