U.S. bond yields fell on Wednesday as investors continued to bet inflation will ease and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024, with rates extending their drop in the afternoon after the Treasury Department sold a slug of 5-year Treasury notes.
What’s happening
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The yield on the 2-year Treasury
BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
fell more than 11 basis points to 4.238%. Yields and debt prices move opposite each other. -
The yield on the 10-year Treasury
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dropped 9.9 basis points to 3.803%. -
The yield on the 30-year Treasury
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declined 8.5 basis points to 3.96%.
What’s driving markets
Benchmark U.S. bond yields extended a drop after market participants absorbed a sale of $58 billion in 5-year Treasury notes
BX:TMUBMUSD05Y.
Yields had declined as investors continued to bet that the easing of inflation — down to 3.1% in November — means the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs next year.
The auction produced a high yield of 3.801%, down from 4.42% at the last sale of 5-year supply in October. The bid-to-cover ratio — a measure of bids versus the amount on sale — was 2.50, up from 2.46 in the October auction.
Markets, meanwhile, are pricing in an 85.5% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its next meeting on Jan. 30-31, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“A moderation in headline and core inflation has created a pathway for central banks to ease off on restrictive policies,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
“As inflation subsides, the Federal Reserve sees higher real rates becoming increasingly economically unfavorable, possibly reducing the necessity for policy rates to remain in prohibitive territory,” Innes added.
But the chances of at least a 25 basis point rate cut at the subsequent meeting in March is priced at 84.6%. Indeed, traders reckon that by December 2024, the Fed’s main rate will be at least down to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%.