Why Democrats Are Beginning to Panic About a Typically Safely Blue Pittsburgh House Race

The final stretch of Summer Lee’s congressional campaign is feeling familiar. With less than a week to go until the election, a super PAC tied to the pro-Israel lobby the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is planning on spending hundreds of thousands to defeat her—reportedly the group’s first investment in a general election race between a Republican and a Democrat. This isn’t Lee’s first time having to face off with the AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project; last spring the PAC poured millions into attacking her and boosting her main Democratic opponent, Steve Irwin, whom she defeated by less than 1%. Her primary victory was seen as an incredible rebuke of dark money. That was supposed to be the end of the drama in this traditionally safe Democratic district encompassing Pittsburgh and its surrounding suburbs. But Democrats are starting to panic that a red wave, aided by outside money and a confusing ballot (we’ll get to that later), could be coming to western Pennsylvania.

According to a poll provided to Vanity Fair by Lee allies, the progressive is polling at 44% among likely voters. Republican candidate Michael Doyle is closely trailing at 40%. But what’s perhaps most interesting—and of biggest concern to Democrats—is that 16% of those polled said they were undecided. Over the weekend, UDP spent just shy of $80,000 on mailers targeting Lee’s campaign. Then on Monday, it was announced that the PAC would spend more than $999,000 on new television ads, according to AdImpact Politics.

“This is scary,” Hannah Fertig, who manages independent expenditure for the progressive group Justice Democrats, said. “We can’t let conservative outside groups steal this election.”

The shifting dynamics of the Pennsylvania congressional race have forced national Democrats to go on the defense. Per The Intercept, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee—the official campaign arm for House Democrats—hadn’t planned to invest in the Lee-Doyle race, but a spokesperson told the outlet that it now plans to invest six figures in support of Lee. It’s the kind of race Democrats can’t afford to lose, especially in a midterm cycle already favoring Republicans.

UDP’s campaign against Lee isn’t the only thing making Democrats panic. In a twist almost too ridiculous to be true, the Republican candidate—who goes by Mike Doyle—bears the same name as the retiring Democrat currently in the seat…Rep. Mike Doyle (no relation). Lee’s campaign has sounded the alarm that this could create voter confusion. It has even cut an ad to clear things up:

Meanwhile, the UDP ads against Lee have painted her as “extreme,” anti-Israel, and, somewhat ironically given the group’s decision to back a Republican in the general, “not a real Democrat.” In an interview with Jewish Insider, Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for UDP, said the decision to back the Republican Doyle was part of a broader effort “to build the broadest bipartisan pro-Israel coalition in Congress possible.” On Twitter, AIPAC recycled these previous attacks: “We oppose Summer Lee because of her dangerous views of the US-Israel alliance.” Lee has repeatedly pushed back on these attacks, saying she “absolutely” believes in Israel’s right to be an independent Jewish state. AIPAC’s tweet came in response to criticism from Senator Bernie Sanders, one of Lee’s prominent backers, who said that “Democrats must unite and condemn” the organization’s super PAC.

Other Lee allies have similarly come to her defense. “Pennsylvania has a representation problem,” Kadida Kenner, the chief executive of the New Pennsylvania Project—which works to expand the electorate—said, citing Pennsylvania’s overwhelmingly white, male state legislature. If elected, Lee, a state representative, would become the first Black woman to represent Pennsylvania in Congress. “It’s shameful what AIPAC is attempting to do to disrupt Lee’s ascension to the House in DC,” Kenner said. “AIPAC says Lee is too extreme, but it is AIPAC throwing their financial support behind a candidate who is anti-abortion rights, anti-gun safety, [and] anti-Social Security and Medicare.” 

Nationally, Republicans need to net only five seats to take back control of the House—math that does not factor in a possible win in a historically liberal enclave of Pennsylvania.