The UK aviation sector expects growth in demand for flying to slow in the coming decades because of higher ticket prices, as the industry turns to expensive new technologies to try to cut its carbon emissions.
UK airlines, airports and aerospace manufacturers have committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, and insist that aviation can continue to grow even while the industry decarbonises.
But in a report published on Monday, a coalition of the industry’s biggest companies also acknowledged that their future growth would be slowed by the higher costs associated with reducing emissions, including moving to cleaner and more expensive fuels, and carbon emissions trading schemes.
“The increased cost of decarbonising aviation will inevitably reduce passenger demand,” the Sustainable Aviation group said.
Industry executives have modelled an increase in ticket prices of between 10 and 20 per cent to help fund the transition away from the reliance on heavily polluting fossil fuels, according to one person familiar with the details.
The report said that nonetheless “people will still want to fly” and estimated there would be 250mn extra passenger journeys a year by 2050.
Matt Gorman, the chair of Sustainable Aviation and a senior Heathrow executive, said there would be a “green premium” attached to flying in the future.
“As an industry we have always supported the idea that the polluter pays . . . and that the industry and ultimately air passengers should pay the carbon costs of travel,” he said.
Sustainable Aviation set out new details of how it expected to reduce carbon emissions from flights departing the UK by almost 70mn tonnes a year to reach net zero by 2050.
It said demand reduction because of the “green premium” attached to flying would represent about 14 per cent of the industry’s total reduction in carbon emissions.
Nearly 40 per cent would come from switching to more sustainable fuels, which emit about 70 per cent less carbon than conventional jet fuel over their lifecycle, with further reductions from improved airspace operations, more efficient conventional engines and offsets.
But the plan also included unproved technologies, including a small role for electric and hydrogen aircraft, and direct air capture technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere.
The group also called for further government support including subsidies funded by diverting tax revenue from emissions trading schemes to help spur growth in sustainable aviation fuel production in the UK.
The UK government on Monday reaffirmed its support for the industry’s net zero goal, including the principle of subsidising some of the transition to sustainable fuels, without giving details on funding.
