Trump indictment likely after midterm elections, prosecutor predicts

Former President Donald Trump could be facing a criminal indictment as soon as the midterm elections are over, according to a Florida state prosecutor.

Dave Aronberg, the state attorney for Palm Beach County, said during a Florida Politics interview published Wednesday that the Department of Justice (DOJ) could be sitting on an indictment until after the November elections. He said that an indictment was likely in part because the former president had been “making admissions in his public statements” on the classified documents retrieved during the FBI‘s Mar-a-Lago raid on August 8.

“We have reports that involve nuclear materials, we have reports that involve foreign spies, but we don’t know [those allegations] for sure,” Aronberg said. “And that’s where I’m guessing [the documents do] involve that, and I think he will be indicted after the midterms.”

While pointing out that earlier this year Judge David Carter said Trump had “likely” attempted to illegally obstruct Congress on January 6, 2021, Aronberg maintained that charging the former president with crimes related to the insurrection was significantly less likely than him being charged over the documents he kept after leaving the White House.

“You have to have a direct link between Trump and the violence on that day for prosecutors to charge,” he said. “Based on what we know now, not sure.”

Aronberg said that Trump’s own statements on the documents shows “knowledge” and “intent” of possible criminal activity. The nature of the classified materials could also be an important factor in whether the DOJ decide to prosecute.

“To get there, you have to show something that is really damaging to our national security,” said Aronberg. “If the documents matter is about Kim Jong Un‘s love letters, it’s not going to happen, you’re not going to see a prosecution.”

Some experts contend that Trump will also eventually face prosecution related to January 6. Harvard law professor emeritus Laurence Tribe recently predicted that Trump and his associates would be caught up in an “avalanche” of related indictments next year, leading to “accountability” for the former president.

“I predict that an avalanche of crushingly powerful indictments in 2023, reaching all the way to the very top, will trigger a flood of plea deals in which the soldiers will flip on the generals,” Tribe tweeted on Sunday. “Donald Trump will not escape accountability.”

Trump is unlikely to face any federal indictments prior to the midterms due to a longstanding but unofficial DOJ policy commonly referred to as the “60 day rule”—which discourages potentially influential prosecutions within two months of an election—and related remarks from Attorney General Merrick Garland.

Former federal prosecutor and Florida state attorney Michael McAuliffe told Newsweek on October 4 that the chances of Trump being arrested in connection to the DOJ before Election Day on November 8 are “close to zero.”

Newsweek reached out to Trump’s legal team for comment.