This could sway voters away from Trump, political analysts warn

Political analysts have begun to weigh in on the impact Donald Trump‘s fourth indictment might have on his reelection prospects, suggesting one thing that might be able to sway GOP voters away from him.

On Monday evening, a grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, voted to indict Trump and numerous allies on charges stemming from his alleged efforts to subvert the results of the 2020 election in the state, based on the lengthy investigation led by District Attorney Fani Willis. The indictment hit the former president with 13 felony charges, including violating Georgia’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act, solicitation of violation of oath by a public officer, filing false documents, and multiple conspiracy counts.

Trump has until Friday to voluntarily surrender himself to authorities for an arraignment hearing. He has consistently denied any wrongdoing in the case, as he has done in all of the legal battles that he is currently embroiled in.

Despite being hit with four criminal indictments within the span of a few months, Trump also remains the overwhelming frontrunner to win the Republican nomination for president in 2024, as he mounts an attempt to retake the White House. Polls have consistently shown Trump garnering nearly 50 percent support from likely GOP voters, with his nearest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, topping out at around 20 percent, depending on the poll.

As each new criminal indictment has landed, Trump’s polling has remained steady—and has, in some cases, received a boost from them. Weighing in on the latest indictments, political analysts have concluded that the latest indictment out of Fulton County is unlikely to change any mind in the GOP base.

“My expectation is that the latest indictments will not change the current political climate or move a great many people,” Kevin Wagner, a professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University, told the Florida Phoenix. “I suspect it will reinforce the current divisions.”

Speaking to Newsweek, Wagner noted that “there are a couple smaller differences” with the latest indictment, notably that the “Georgia GOP is a bit more divided on the former President than in other states,” suggesting that it could hurt his electoral chances in the Peach State more so than in others.

Michael Binder, a professor of political science at North Florida University, also told the Florida Phoenix that, while it might not damage his standing with his base, the latest indictment might also not give him the same bump as the previous ones.

“At some point, there’s diminishing returns when it comes to benefits, and I suspect that we’re at or near that point,” Binder said. “I wouldn’t expect much poll movement until there’s a conviction, or something goes viral after one of the upcoming debates.”

Wagner added in his statement to Newsweek that at this stage, a televised trial might be something that could start to have a negative impact on Trump’s perception by his base. State-level trials like the one Trump could face in Fulton County are more likely to be televised, as opposed to federal cases.

“The use of cameras in the courthouse may allow people to have a more unfiltered view of the allegations and proof which may ultimately produce a different response,” Wagner told Newsweek.

Trump may, however, be able to subvert the ability for his Georgia trial to be televised by requesting that it be moved to a federal court, which the federal “removal statute” might entitle him to do. Dave Aronberg, a state attorney for Florida’s Palm Beach County, told Newsweek that there is a small chance that such a motion could be successful, preventing the trial from being televised.

“I think there’s an outside chance it could happen, which would be unfortunate because it would mean no cameras in the courtroom,” Aronberg wrote in a statement.