Northern California is likely heading into a significant stretch of heat for the first week of July. Temperatures across in the Valley could climb above 105 degrees for the first time this year. Overnight temperatures may stay quite warm.Heat of this magnitude is impactful for any outdoors plans. Keep the forecast in mind when planning your Independence day celebrations.While there is high confidence in a hot weather pattern, specific details like the exact daily afternoon high are not locked in yet. Keep that in mind when checking the forecast, especially if you are using a weather app.What to know when using smartphones to predict the weather and why you should be highly skeptical of a 119-degree forecast nine days in advance. We use apps to source data for everything these days, including a weather forecast. At one point on Thursday, June 27, some apps included a forecast high of 119 degrees on Saturday, July 6. Keep in mind that this data is constantly changing and we are still nine days out from July 6. Most weather apps are not checked by a human forecaster who can provide important context and weed out any outrageous predictions.Forecast accuracy is greatest the closer we get to the event. A seven-day forecast relies on forecast data trends to give you an idea on how to plan ahead. A three-day forecast can offer more information on specific timing and impacts. A 24-hour forecast will have the best accuracy and specificity, especially for something like a high temperature forecast.The Global Forecast System, or GFS as we call it in the meteorology community, is a longer-range forecast model that’s updated every six hours. It can also put data out for forecasts up to 16 days in advance. The GFS can be a great tool for getting a general idea of a forecast trend days out, but it fails to nail down things like temperature correctly more than three days out. Forecast models, like the GFS change from model run to run.Things will change over the next nine days. The best way to get an accurate forecast is through your trusted local meteorologists. No one knows the area better than us or the climatology over the years. KCRA 3 is your trusted source for the weather as the heat heads our way to start out this July 2024.See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app.
Northern California is likely heading into a significant stretch of heat for the first week of July.
Temperatures across in the Valley could climb above 105 degrees for the first time this year. Overnight temperatures may stay quite warm.
Heat of this magnitude is impactful for any outdoors plans. Keep the forecast in mind when planning your Independence day celebrations.
While there is high confidence in a hot weather pattern, specific details like the exact daily afternoon high are not locked in yet. Keep that in mind when checking the forecast, especially if you are using a weather app.
What to know when using smartphones to predict the weather and why you should be highly skeptical of a 119-degree forecast nine days in advance.
We use apps to source data for everything these days, including a weather forecast.
At one point on Thursday, June 27, some apps included a forecast high of 119 degrees on Saturday, July 6.
Keep in mind that this data is constantly changing and we are still nine days out from July 6. Most weather apps are not checked by a human forecaster who can provide important context and weed out any outrageous predictions.
Forecast accuracy is greatest the closer we get to the event.
- A seven-day forecast relies on forecast data trends to give you an idea on how to plan ahead.
- A three-day forecast can offer more information on specific timing and impacts.
- A 24-hour forecast will have the best accuracy and specificity, especially for something like a high temperature forecast.
The Global Forecast System, or GFS as we call it in the meteorology community, is a longer-range forecast model that’s updated every six hours. It can also put data out for forecasts up to 16 days in advance.
The GFS can be a great tool for getting a general idea of a forecast trend days out, but it fails to nail down things like temperature correctly more than three days out.
Forecast models, like the GFS change from model run to run.
Things will change over the next nine days.
The best way to get an accurate forecast is through your trusted local meteorologists.
No one knows the area better than us or the climatology over the years.
KCRA 3 is your trusted source for the weather as the heat heads our way to start out this July 2024.
See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app.
