A Google Cloud logo at the Hannover Messe industrial technology fair in Hanover, Germany, on Thursday, April 20, 2023.
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Bank stocks fell as First Republic reignited fears. Meanwhile, Alphabet and Microsoft beat earnings estimates, giving markets a chance to rally around tech.
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reported a 3% increase in first-quarter revenue to $69.79 billion from a year earlier, though net income fell from $16.44 billion to $15.05 billion. Nonetheless, the technology giant beat earnings and revenue forecasts after missing both for four straight quarters. Also, its cloud business finally turned profitable. Alphabet shares rose 1.68% in extended trading.
Microsoft’s revenue increased 7% year over year to $52.86 billion, and its net income rose 9% to $18.3 billion for the quarter ended March 31. Both top and bottom line numbers beat expectations, causing shares to surge 8.45% in overnight trading.
Can optimism in tech save markets from resurgent bank fears?
Investors must have felt an unwelcome sense of déjà vu. First Republic lost almost half its value in a single trading day, dragging down other regional banks. Western Alliance Bancorp lost 5.58%, Charles Schwab fell 3.93% and PacWest Bancorp sank 8.92% (though the Los Angeles-based bank managed to recoup its losses in overnight trading after reporting its earnings).
Bigger banks weren’t spared, either: The broader SPDR S&P Bank ETF lost 3.68%. Across the Atlantic, UBS shares dropped even though the Swiss bank managed to increase assets in March, suggesting investors are still jumpy at any sign of weakness in banks.
Losses in the financial sector weighed on major stock indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.02%, the S&P 500 ended the day 1.58% lower and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.98%.
However, Wednesday could look like a very different trading day in the United States. Investors were pleased with how both Alphabet and Microsoft managed to beat estimates on profit and revenue. Shares of those tech giants popped in extended trading and are likely to post more dramatic surges later today. Given Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s immense market capitalization, broader markets stand to benefit from their rise as well.
If Meta, which is due to report after the bell Wednesday, continues the streak of big tech surpassing Wall Street’s expectations, investors could be in for two good trading days for the Nasdaq, at the very least. That could be enough to banish any lingering sense of déjà vu surrounding banks.
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A sign reading “I’m Feeling Lucky” outside the Google Inc. regional headquarters in Paris, France, on Thursday, April 6, 2023.
Nathan Laine | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Bank stocks fell as First Republic reignited fears. Meanwhile, Alphabet and Microsoft beat earnings estimates, giving markets a chance to rally around tech.
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reported a 3% increase in first-quarter revenue to $69.79 billion from a year earlier, though net income fell from $16.44 billion to $15.05 billion. Nonetheless, the technology giant beat earnings and revenue forecasts after missing both for four straight quarters. Also, its cloud business, Azure, finally turned profitable. Alphabet shares rose 1.3% in extended trading.
Microsoft’s revenue increased 7% year over year to $52.86 billion, and its net income rose 9% to $18.3 billion for the quarter ended March 31. Both top and bottom line numbers beat expectations, causing shares to surge 9% in overnight trading.
Turning to banks, UBS’ first-quarter profit fell 52% year on year to $1.03 billion, largely because of a $665 million provision it had to make for litigation related to mortgage-backed securities the bank sold almost 20 years ago. However, the bank’s wealth management unit attracted $28 billion amid the banking turmoil in March. Still, that news couldn’t stop shares from sliding 2.17%.
First Republic Bank fared worse. On Monday, the U.S. bank reported after markets closed that its deposits sank 40.8%; on Tuesday, traders fled the stock, causing it plummet 49.38% to hit a record low.
PRO Artificial intelligence-focused stocks are set for a period of extreme growth, according to Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate Research and previously Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist. Here are 25 stocks that can capitalize on the A.I. boom, with 15 of them up 20% year to date.
Can optimism in tech save markets from resurgent bank fears?
Investors must have felt an unwelcome sense of déjà vu. First Republic lost almost half its value in a single trading day, dragging down other regional banks. Western Alliance Bancorp lost 5.58%, Charles Schwab fell 3.93% and PacWest Bancorp sank 8.92% (though the Los Angeles-based bank managed to recoup its losses in overnight trading after reporting its earnings).
Bigger banks weren’t spared, either: The broader SPDR S&P Bank ETF lost 3.68%. Across the Atlantic, UBS shares dropped even though the Swiss bank managed to increase assets in March, suggesting investors are still jumpy at any sign of weakness in banks.
Losses in the financial sector weighed on major stock indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.02%, the S&P 500 ended the day 1.58% lower and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.98%.
However, Wednesday could look like a very different trading day in the United States. Investors were pleased with how both Alphabet and Microsoft managed to beat estimates on profit and revenue. Shares of those tech giants popped in extended trading and are likely to post more dramatic surges later today. Given Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s immense market capitalization, broader markets stand to benefit from their rise as well.
If Meta, which is due to report after the bell Wednesday, continues the streak of big tech surpassing Wall Street’s expectations, investors could be in for two good trading days for the Nasdaq, at the very least. That could be enough to banish any lingering sense of déjà vu surrounding banks.
Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
UBS Group AG invested in onboarding technology through enhanced know-your-customer and anti-money laundering processes in the first quarter, which will ultimately aid the bank’s onboarding of Credit Suisse clients during its acquisition of the embattled Swiss bank. UBS’ tech spend was up 11% year over year to $322 million, with included enhancements to its KYC […]
UBS Group AG said Tuesday that earnings declined in the first quarter, hurt by litigation, but that the bank drew in billions in net new money at its global wealth-management business following the news of its acquisition of Credit Suisse Group AG.
The Swiss bank UBS CH:UBSG said its result was affected by $665 million in provisions related to U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities litigation.
UBS reported its first results since the deal to buy Credit Suisse.
Fabrice Coffrini | Afp | Getty Images
UBS reported a 52% annual drop in net profit on Tuesday amid a legacy litigation matter, but maintained it is a “source of stability” for its clients during periods of high uncertainty.
These are the bank’s first results since announcing its takeover of rival Credit Suisse.
UBS said net profit came in at $1.03 billion for the first quarter, coming in well below analyst expectations of a net profit near $1.75 billion for the period, according to Refinitiv.
The hit in net income came from increased provisions of $665 million following a U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities litigation matter.
Speaking to CNBC’s Geoff Cutmore, UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti — who resumed his post on April 5 — said, “We are in advanced discussions. Hopefully we can close this 15-year old chapter very soon.”
Ermotti also described the latest results as “very solid.”
“We saw some inflows coming from Credit Suisse, but, most importantly, we continue to see even after the transaction, we saw inflows, so the demonstration that our clients believe we are a source of stability.” he told CNBC.
“We are part of the solution and not part of the problem,” he added.
Here are other highlights of the quarter:
Revenues reached $8.75 billion vs 9.38 billion a year ago
Operating expenses were $7.2 billion from $6.6 billion a year ago
CET 1 capital ratio, a measure of bank solvency, came in at 13.9% vs 14.1% a year ago
The lender also said that it attracted $28 billion in net new money in its global wealth management unit, of which $7 billion were registered in the last 10 days of March — after the announcement of its acquisition of Credit Suisse.
UBS shares have jumped more than 10% since the news that it was buying its embattled Swiss competitor last month. At the time, UBS said that the deal, brokered by Swiss regulators, would create a “leading global wealth manager” with more than $5 billion in total invested assets.
However, analysts at Barclays said that the market is “significantly underestimating” the complexity of integrating Credit Suisse within UBS, Reuters reported. Ermotti told CNBC on Tuesday that the merger should be completed within the second quarter.
“In the next couple of weeks I will redefine our target operating model for the future, (I) also come out with some organizational announcements and clarity,” he said, adding that the merger with Credit Suisse is not a “risky” transaction and will deliver for shareholders.
Credit Suisse reported higher operating expenses during the first quarter as the financial institution invested in software, shrunk its team and continued restructuring efforts amid its acquisition by UBS following a run on the Zurich-based bank in March. THE BIGGER PICTURE: The $607 billion bank saw a 16% year-over-year increase in total operating costs […]
A sign of Credit Suisse bank is seen on a branch building in Geneva, on March 15, 2023.
Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images
Credit Suisse on Monday revealed that it suffered net asset outflows of 61.2 billion Swiss francs ($68.6 billion) during the first-quarter collapse that culminated in its emergency rescue by domestic rival UBS.
The stricken Swiss lender posted a one-off 12.43 billion Swiss franc profit for the first quarter of 2023, due to the controversial write-off of 15 billion Swiss francs of AT1 bonds by the Swiss regulator as part of the deal. The adjusted pre-tax loss for the quarter came in at 1.3 billion Swiss francs.
In Monday’s earnings report, which could be the last in its 167-year history, Credit Suisse said it experienced significant net asset outflows, particularly in the second half of March 2023, which have “moderated but have not yet reversed as of April 24, 2023.”
First-quarter net outflows totaled 61.2 billion, 5% of the group’s assets under management as of the end of 2022. Deposit outflows represented 57% of the net asset outflows from Credit Suisse’s wealth management unit and Swiss bank for the quarter.
“In the second half of March 2023, Credit Suisse experienced significant withdrawals of cash deposits as well as non-renewal of maturing time deposits. Customer deposits declined by CHF 67 bn in 1Q23,” the bank said.
“These outflows, which were most acute in the days immediately preceding and following the announcement of the merger, stabilized to much lower levels, but had not yet reversed as of April 24, 2023.”
The acquisition is expected to be consummated by the end of this year, if possible, but the full absorption of Credit Suisse’s business into UBS Group is expected to take around three to four years.
At its annual general meeting last month Chairman Axel Lehmann and CEO Ulrich Koerner — both of whom took their posts within the last two years and inherited a bank reeling from a series of high-profile scandals, risk management failures and heavy losses — apologized to shareholders and staff.
Credit Suisse posted an annual net loss of 7.3 billion Swiss francs in 2022, including a 1.4 billion loss in the fourth quarter alone, as Lehmann and Koerner attempted a massive strategic overhaul aimed a bolstering its risk and compliance functions and addressing perennial underperformance in the investment bank.
The banking sector turmoil that led to the collapse of several lenders was not a systemic crisis and has now subsided, according to Tim Adams, CEO of the Institute of International Finance.
The fall of Silicon Valley Bank in early March — the largest banking failure since the global financial crisis — triggered a wave of market panic that swept through the sector in Europe and the U.S.
Markets have since stabilized, leading many to conclude that the problems were unique to the stricken banks and do not pose a systemic risk. However, the ripple effect has dented the economic outlook in many advanced economies.
Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in Washington D.C. on Tuesday, Adams said the March chaos was a “period of market turmoil or turbulence,” but dismissed the notion that it was a “crisis.”
“We have over 4,000 banks in the United States, we have about 10,000 banks globally that are part of SWIFT and 35,000 financial institutions around the world — 99.999% of them opened their doors over the past month and had no problems whatsoever — [it’s] really just a few isolated idiosyncratic institutions,” Adams told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche.
“So I think it is not a crisis, I think it was market turbulence, it has subsided, it has stabilized, but we need to be vigilant and we need to watch for other stresses in the system.”
The IIF is a global trade body for the financial services industry, with around 400 members in more than 60 countries. Adams said the primary concern among members was the downside risk to growth, particularly in advanced economies.
The IMF on Tuesday lowered its five-year global growth forecast to around 3%, marking the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook report since 1990.
The D.C.-based institution’s Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC on Tuesday that the turmoil in the banking sector had weakened the growth outlook, especially in the face of rapid monetary policy tightening from central banks that have sharply increased lenders’ funding costs and increased vulnerabilities.
“There are risks, there are geopolitical risks which we can talk about, but the downside risks are real and we just don’t know how deep they are,” Adams said.
“The Fed’s going to probably tighten again, we have other central banks in Europe and the U.K. tightening, so there are risks to the downside.”
Regulators in the U.S. and Europe took swift action to quash contagion risk in the face of the various banking collapses last month. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen asserted on Tuesday that the banking system remains well capitalized, with ample liquidity.
Adams suggested many of the regulators he had spoken to, including those involved in developing the Dodd Frank and Basel III frameworks in the aftermath of the financial crisis, did not believe major regulatory changes were necessary this time around.
“It’s a very different system than [what] was prevailing in 2007, 2008. I do think we need to better understand what went wrong at certain institutions like SVB, I think we do need to ask what happened to supervision, but I don’t think we’re going to see regulatory changes,” he added.
The International Monetary Fund has released new economic forecasts and warns that it will be hard for policymakers to bring down inflation while keeping a growth momentum.
Ishara S. Kodikara | Afp | Getty Images
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released its weakest global growth expectations for the medium term in more than 30 years.
The D.C.-based institution said that five years from now, global growth is expected to be around 3% — the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook since 1990.
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“The world economy is not currently expected to return over the medium term to the rates of growth that prevailed before the pandemic,” the Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook.
The weaker growth prospects stem from the progress economies like China and South Korea have made in increasing their living standards, the IMF said, as well as slower global labor force growth and geopolitical fragmentation, such as Brexit and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
These forces are now overlaid by and interacting with new financial stability concerns.
In the short term, however, the IMF expects global growth of 2.8% this year and 3% in 2024, slightly below the fund’s estimates published in January. The new estimates are a cut of 0.1 percentage points for both this year and next.
“The anemic outlook reflects the tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and growing geoeconomic fragmentation,” the IMF said in the same report.
Looking at some of the regional breakdowns, the IMF sees the United States economy expanding by 1.6% this year and the euro zone growing by 0.8%. However, the United Kingdom is seen contracting by 0.3%.
China’s GDP is expected to increase by 5.2% in 2023, according to the IMF, and India’s by 5.9%. The Russian economy — which contracted by more than 2% in 2022 — is seen growing by 0.7% this year.
“The major forces that affected the world in 2022 — central banks’ tight monetary stances to allay inflation, limited fiscal buffers to absorb shocks amid historically high debt levels, commodity price spikes and geoeconomic fragmentation with Russia’s war in Ukraine, and China’s economic reopening—seem likely to continue into 2023. But these forces are now overlaid by and interacting with new financial stability concerns,” the IMF warned.
The IMF said that its baseline forecast “assumes that the recent financial sector stresses are contained.” It comes after a number of banks failed in March, causing volatility across global markets.
The pressures in the banking sector have dissipated in recent weeks, but they have made the overall economic picture worse in the eyes of the IMF.
“Financial sector stress could amplify and contagion could take hold, weakening the real economy through a sharp deterioration in financing conditions and compelling central banks to reconsider their policy paths,” the fund said.
The bank failures shed light on the potential consequences of hawkish monetary policy across many major economies. Higher interest rates, raised by central banks battling to bring down stubbornly high inflation, are hurting companies and national governments with high levels of debt.
“A hard landing — particularly for advanced economies — has become a much larger risk. Policymakers may face difficult trade-offs to bring sticky inflation down and maintain growth while also preserving financial stability,” the IMF said.
The institution expects global headline inflation to drop from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% this year, as energy prices come down. However core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is expected to take longer to fall.
In most cases, the IMF does not expect headline inflation to return to its target levels before 2025.
Newly appointed UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti (R) speaks with UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher during a press conference in Zurich on March 29, 2023.
Arnd Wiegmann | Afp | Getty Images
UBS will hold its annual general meeting on Wednesday morning against a fraught political backdrop, following its takeover of fallen rival Credit Suisse last month.
Shareholders gathering in Basel will be seeking reassurance that the board has a clear plan following the “shotgun wedding” between Switzerland’s two biggest banks, which remains mired in controversy, legal peril and public skepticism.
New CEO Sergio Ermotti will take the reins on Wednesday after his shock reappointment last week, as UBS takes on the mammoth task of integrating its fallen compatriot’s business.
Ermotti’s return was seen by many commentators as an attempt to restore calm, as the country’s long-established reputation for financial stability teeters on the line.
Concerns remain over the scale of the new entity and whether it creates too much concentrated risk for the Swiss and global economy, while reports have suggested that UBS’ plans may include job cuts of around 20-30% of the combined entity’s global workforce.
The board was angrily confronted on Tuesday by shareholders demanding answers and accountability over the 3 billion Swiss franc ($3.3 billion) deal, which was rushed through over the course of a weekend and denied both UBS and Credit Suisse shareholders a vote.
Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann said he was “truly sorry” to shareholders, clients and employees, and suggested the bank’s turnaround plan after years of losses, scandals and compliance failures had been on track until turmoil in the U.S. banking sector sparked a flight of confidence.
“We wanted to put all our energy and our efforts into turning the situation around and putting the bank back on track. It pains me that we didn’t have the time to do so, and that in that fateful week in March our plans were disrupted. For that I am truly sorry. I apologize that we were no longer able to stem the loss of trust that had accumulated over the years, and for disappointing you.
That’s Axel Lehmann, the chairman of Credit Suisse, addressing shareholders after the deal to be purchased at a cut-rate price by UBS, ending 167 years of independence. Shareholders at neither Credit Suisse CSGN, +1.39%
nor UBS UBSG, +1.20%
will get a chance to vote on the deal.
Credit Suisse shares were trading at 0.81 francs, just below the 0.84 franc per share offer the UBS bid is now worth. A year ago, Credit Suisse was worth more than 7 francs per share.
Lehmann, as noted in his speech, was not at the bank for its many scandals and trading debacles, most notably but hardly limited to the losses from the blowup of the Archegos family office and the freezing of funds tied to Greensill.
“The period from October to March was not long enough. One legacy issue after another had already seen trust eroded – and with it, patience dwindled. At that, we failed. It was too late. The bitter reality is that there wasn’t enough time for our strategy to bear fruit,” said Lehmann.
He said the deal “had to go through,” or the bank would have to restructure under Swiss banking law. “This would have led to the worst scenario, namely a total loss for shareholders, unpredictable risks for clients, severe consequences for the economy and the global financial markets,” he said.
CEO Ulrich Körner made a similar apology. “We ran out of time. This fills me with sorrow. What has happened over the past few weeks will continue to affect me personally and many others for a long time to come,” he said.
He specifically tied the collapse of SVB Financial and Signature Bank to its own demise.
A Credit Suisse Group AG bank branch in Bern, Switzerland, on Thursday, March 16, 2023.
Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Shareholders are gathering at Credit Suisse‘s annual general meeting Tuesday to demand answers and accountability over its controversial takeover by UBS.
A police presence was established early Tuesday at the venue as shareholders began arriving in droves.
Swiss authorities brokered an emergency rescue of the stricken bank by its larger domestic rival for just 3 billion Swiss francs, over the course of a weekend in late March. It followed a collapse in Credit Suisse’s deposits and share price amid fears of a global banking crisis, but the deal remains mired in legal and logistical challenges. Neither UBS nor Credit Suisse shareholders were allowed a vote on the deal.
Commentators have highlighted the importance of the deal’s success for Swiss authorities against a febrile political backdrop. The lack of input from shareholders, bondholders and Swiss taxpayers in UBS’ acquisition of its embattled rival has sparked widespread anger.
Speaking outside the annual meeting, Vincent Kaufmann, CEO of Ethos Foundation which represents pension funds comprising between 3% and 5% of Credit Suisse shareholders, told CNBC that they had “lost a lot of money” and “need to know what management is doing.”
Potential courses of action include “trying to retrieve some of the viable pay that was granted for former management, who may have failed in their duties to protect shareholders’ interests,” he said.
“We’re still looking for possibilities — it’s quite difficult with the Swiss company law to prove the damage. Mismanagement of a company is not per se something we can concretely act against former members of the management or current members of the management, but still we need to be sure that they gave the whole truth to investors and to the market, so there is still open question,” Kaufmann told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche.
Holders of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bond instruments, which were subject to a $17 billion wipeout as part of the UBS takeover, last week instructed a global law firm to pursue discussion and possible litigation with Swiss authorities.
“There is still a chance that the various actors will recognize and correct the mistakes made in hastily orchestrating this merger,” Thomas Werlen, managing partner at Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, which is representing a “diverse array” of affected bondholders in Switzerland, the U.K. and U.S., said in a release Monday.
“While we are certainly prepared to pursue whatever proceedings are necessary, a potential constructive engagement with the relevant stakeholders could prevent years of litigation. That will be an important focus for us over the coming weeks.”
UBS announced last week that former CEO Sergio Ermotti would return to the helm of the new bank as it undertakes the huge task of integrating its fallen compatriot into its business.
UBS will hold its own AGM on Wednesday, with further clarity expected on plans for the new integrated lender. Swiss regulator FINMA will also hold a press conference on Wednesday.
Swiss newspaper Tages-Anzeiger reported Sunday, citing one source, that plans for the new entity include a 20%-30% cut to its combined global workforce.
U.S. stocks have shrugged off a number of threats since the start of the year, powering through the worst U.S. bank failures since the 2008 financial crisis, while resisting the pull of rising short-term Treasury yields.
This helped all three main U.S. equity benchmarks finish the first quarter in the green on Friday, but that doesn’t change the fact that the S&P 500 index, the main U.S. equity benchmark, has barely budged since last summer.
“The market has handled a lot of gut punches recently and it’s still standing in this range,” said JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America, owner of brokerage firm Tastytrade. “I think that’s a sign that the market is very healthy.”
The S&P 500 index SPX, +1.44%
traded at 4,110.41 on Sept. 12, 2022, according to FactSet data, just before aggressive Federal Reserve commentary on interest rates and worrisome inflation data triggered a sharp selloff. By comparison, the index finished Friday’s session at 4,109.31.
Some equity analysts expect it to take months, or perhaps even longer, for U.S. stocks to break out of this range. Where they might go next also is anyone’s guess.
Investors likely won’t know until some of the uncertainty that has been plaguing the market over the past year clears up.
At the top of the market’s wish list is more information about how the Fed’s interest rate hikes are impacting the economy. This will be crucial in determining whether the central bank might need to keep raising interest rates in 2024, several analysts told MarketWatch.
Stocks are volatile, but stuck in a circle
The S&P 500 has vacillated in a roughly 600-point range since September, but at the same time, the number of outsize swings from day-to-day has become even more pronounced, making it more difficult to ascertain the health of the market, analysts said.
The S&P 500 rose or fell by 1% or more in 29 trading sessions in the first quarter, including Friday, when the S&P 500 closed 1.4% higher on the last session of the month and quarter, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
That’s nearly double the quarterly average of just 14.9 days going back to 1928, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 was created in 1957, and performance data taken from before then is based on a historical reconstruction of the index’s performance.
Stocks also look almost placid in comparison with other assets. For example, Treasurys saw an explosion of volatility in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. The 2-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.114%
logged its largest monthly decline in 15 years in March as a result.
“You can’t find any clues about where we’re going by watching the S&P 500,” said John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, in a phone interview with MarketWatch. “Ten years ago, you could look at the movement of the S&P 500 and a simple indicator like volume and get a back-of-the-envelope idea of how healthy the market is. But you can’t do that anymore because of all this intraday volatility.”
The S&P 500’s 7% advance in the first quarter of this year has helped to mask weakness underneath the surface. Specifically, only 33% of S&P 500 companies’ shares have managed to outperform the index since the start of the quarter, well below the long-term average, according to figures provided to MarketWatch by analysts at UBS Group UBS.
Mega stocks, Fed to the rescue?
If it weren’t for a flight-to-safety rally in large capitalization technology names like Apple Inc. AAPL, +1.56%,
Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +1.50%
and Nvidia Corp. NVDA, +1.44%,
the S&P 500 and Nasdaq would likely be in much worse shape.
Advancing megacap tech stocks have helped the Invesco QQQ QQQ, +1.66%
Trust exchange-traded fund, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, enter a fresh bull market in the past week, as the closely watched market gauge closed more than 20% above its 52-week closing low from late December, according to FactSet data. That’s helped to offset weakness in cyclical sectors like financials and real estate.
Tech behemoths have also benefited from the hype around artificial intelligence platforms like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Confusion about the Fed’s quantitative tightening efforts to reduce the size of its balance sheet also helped muddle the outlook for markets.
For example, the size of the Fed’s balance sheet has increased again in recent weeks as banks have tapped the central bank’s emergency lending programs in the wake of the failure of two regional banks, undoing some of the central bank’s efforts to shrink its balance sheet by allowing some of its Treasury and mortgage-backed bond holdings to mature without reinvesting the proceeds.
Some analysts said this is akin to sending the market mixed signals.
“It seems to be both tightening and loosening right now,” said Andrew Adams, an analyst with Saut Strategy, in a recent note to clients.
What it takes for a break out
U.S. stocks have remained rangebound for long stretches in the past.
Beginning in late 2014, the S&P 500 traded in a tight range for roughly two years. Between Jan. 1, 2015 and Nov. 9, 2016, the day after former President Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton to become president of the U.S., the S&P 500 gained less than 100 points, according to FactSet data.
At the time, equity analysts blamed signs of softening economic activity in China and weakness in the U.S. energy industry for the market’s lackluster performance.
But after once it became clear that Trump would win the White House, stocks embarked on a steady ascent as investors bet that the Republican economic agenda, which included corporate tax cuts and deregulation, would likely bolster corporate profits.
It wasn’t until the fourth quarter of 2018 that stocks turned volatile once again as the S&P 500 wiped out its gains from earlier in the year, before ultimately finishing 2018 with a 6.2% drop for the year, according to FactSet.
As investors brace for a flood of first-quarter corporate earnings in the coming weeks, Kinahan said he expects stocks could remain range bound for at least a few more months.
“There’s going to be a very cautious outlook still, which should keep us in this range,” he said.
BRUSSELS — European regulators distanced themselves from the Swiss decision to wipe out $17 billion of Credit Suisse‘s bonds in the wake of the bank’s rescue, saying they would write down shareholders’ investments first.
Dominique Laboureix, chair of the EU’s Single Resolution Board, had a clear message for investors in an exclusive interview with CNBC.
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“In [a banking] resolution here, in the European context, we would follow the hierarchy, and we wanted to tell it very clearly to the investors, to avoid to be misunderstood: we have no choice but to respect this hierarchy,” Laboureix said Wednesday.
It comes after Swiss regulator FINMA announced earlier this month that Credit Suisse’s additional tier-one (AT1) bonds, widely regarded as relatively risky investments, would be written down to zero, while stock investors would receive over $3 billion as part of the bank’s takeover by UBS, angering bondholders.
In a joint statement with the ECB Banking Supervision and the European Banking Authority, the Single Resolution Board said on March 20 that the “common equity instruments are the first ones to absorb losses, and only after their full use would Additional Tier 1 be required to be written down.”
The standard hierarchy or framework sees equity investments classed as secondary to bonds when a bank is rescued.
Switzerland’s second largest bank Credit Suisse is seen here next to a Swiss flag in downtown Geneva.
Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images
“As a resolution authority in charge of the banking union resolution framework, I can tell you that I will respect fully and entirely the legal framework. So in resolution, when adopting a resolution scheme, I will respect this hierarchy starting by absorbing equity stack, and then the AT1 and then the Tier 2 and then the rest,” Laboureix said.
Switzerland is not part of the European Union and so does not fall under the region’s banking regulation.
The Single Resolution Board became operational in 2015 in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Its main function is to ensure that there’s the least possible impact on the real economy if a bank fails in the euro zone.
The recent banking turmoil started in the U.S. with the fall of Silvergate Capital, a bank focused on cryptocurrency. Shortly after, regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank and then Signature Bank following significant deposit outflows in an effort to prevent contagion across the sector.
For regulators in the euro zone, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and perhaps subsequent events, could have been avoided if tougher banking rules were in place.
“A bank like this would have been under strict rules,” Laboureix said. “I’m not judging … but what I understand is that these mid-sized banks, so-called mid-sized banks in the U.S., were in reality, big banks compared to ours in the banking union.”
European lawmakers have previously told CNBC that U.S. regulators made mistakes in preventing the failure of SVB and others.
One of the key differences between the U.S. and Europe is that the former has a more relaxed set of capital rules for smaller banks.
Basel III, for instance — a set of reforms that strengthens the supervision and risk management of banks and has been developed since 2008 — applies to most European banks. But American lenders with a balance sheet below $250 billion do not have to follow them.
Despite the recent turbulence, European regulators argue the sector is strong and resilient, particularly because of the level of controls introduced since the Global Financial Crisis.
“If you look at the past events — I mean, Covid, Archegoes, Greensill, the Gilt crisis in the U.K. last September, etc, etc — during the three last years, the resilience of the European banking system was very strong based on very good solvency and very good liquidity and a very good profitability,” Laboureix said.
“I really believe that yes, there is a good resiliency in our banking system. That does not mean that we don’t have to be vigilant.”
A new Senate Finance Committee report from the Democratic staff alleges that Credit Suisse CS violated key terms of a plea agreement with the Justice Department. The report alleges Credit Suisse transferred nearly $100 million of funds from a family of dual U.S.-Latin American citizens to other banks in Switzerland without notifying the DOJ, enabling what “appears to be potentially criminal tax evasion” for almost a decade, the report says. Several additional Swiss banks may be currently holding large secret offshore accounts for U.S. persons, the report says. Credit Suisse has agreed to be purchased by UBS UBS with the…
Sergio Ermotti, chief executive officer of UBS Group AG.
Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Incoming UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti on Wednesday said his return to the helm was “a call of duty,” as the Swiss veteran takes on the task of restoring order to the country’s battered financial reputation.
UBS announced on Wednesday that the former CEO would replace Ralph Hamers from April 5, as the Swiss bank undertakes the mammoth task of integrating fallen rival Credit Suisse into its business.
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In a press conference, UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher lauded Hamers’ tenure, highlighting the company’s “unprecedented success despite a challenging environment” under the Dutchman’s tutelage, and his instrumental role in delivering the Credit Suisse deal.
Kelleher said the board decided that Ermotti’s experience in picking UBS up from the canvas after the 2008 financial crisis rendered him uniquely qualified to lead the new combined entity through what promises to be a challenging and drawn out integration.
“In particular, he built financial strength and improved resilience by putting the firm’s leading global wealth management business and Swiss universal bank at its core,” Kelleher said of Ermotti’s tenure as CEO from November 2011 to October 2020.
“Sergio swiftly transformed the investment bank by cutting its footprint, and achieved a profound culture change within the bank which allowed it to regain the trust of clients and other stakeholders while restoring people’s pride in working for UBS.”
He added that this, combined with Ermotti’s “deep understanding of the financial service industry in Switzerland and globally,” made the Swiss banking veteran the man for the job.
Kelleher emphasized that Ermotti’s task — the successful integration of Credit Suisse into UBS — was “essential for both banks’ clients, people and investors, for Switzerland and for the global financial system in general.”
Ermotti’s first stint as CEO began amid the fallout from a $2.3 billion loss inflicted on the bank by a rogue trader in London. He inherited an ailing investment bank that had been forced to write off more than $50 billion during the great financial crisis, along with being implicated in what would become a costly Libor investigation.
After a campaign of sweeping job cuts, an exit from substantial portions of the fixed income trading division, the investment bank was focused and streamlined, and Ermotti’s radical course of action was welcomed by investors.
‘Call of duty’
Ermotti leaves his post as chairman of Swiss Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurance companies, in order to take the reins at the new combined Swiss banking behemoth.
Asked by CNBC during Wednesday’s press conference about his motivation for returning to UBS, Ermotti said there was “a call of duty aspect” to his decision.
“And also, frankly speaking, I always thought that despite all these discussions and the size of the bank, I always felt that the next chapter I wanted to write back then was a chapter of doing a transaction like this one.”
He also confirmed that he will be in the role for “as long as they want me,” and emphasized that bank wants to “take away uncertainty as soon as we can” regarding its restructuring and prospective layoff plans.
“I’m fully aware that we need to work very hard here to avoid any consequence for the taxpayers in Switzerland. You have my word and my commitment that together with my team, we will work and do everything that it takes to make this transaction successfully, and to write another very important and successful chapter in UBS’ history,” Ermotti told Wednesday’s press conference.
“I am convinced that together with my colleagues, by focusing very hard on the needs of our clients, taking consideration also of the needs of all the employees that I’m sure are right now somehow concerned about their future, and also the interests of our shareholders, by balancing at best the interests of those three stakeholders, we will be able also to make all of society and all the rest of the stakeholders in Switzerland pleased with what we do.”
The banking turmoil has created a febrile political environment in Switzerland as the government looks to shore up the system ahead of the federal election in October.
Beat Wittmann, partner at Zurich-based Porta Advisors, told CNBC on Wednesday that the appointment of Hamers was “a Swiss solution” to the uncertainties facing the country, and the challenge of rebuilding trust in Switzerland’s banking sector and policymakers.
“We should not underestimate the anger of the population at the failure of successive management at Credit Suisse, all self-inflicted casualty, and the trinity of policymakers — the central bank, FINMA and the finance ministry — didn’t really act prematurely and in a timely manner, but really let this happen and had then basically to forge a solution over the weekend,” he said.
“This decision here to put Sergio Ermotti — proven, trustworthy in the view of the public at large and also the industry — in place here as the CEO is certainly going to calm these kinds of discussions, and that’s certainly also one of the motivations.”
Credit Suisse, the collapsed Swiss bank taken over by UBS Group in a hastily arranged bailout earlier this month, may bring with it a fresh set of regulatory and legal problems for its new owner.
For years, the bank has provided a safe haven for wealthy American clients to hide assets from the IRS — even after it was caught and prosecuted for doing the same thing more than a decade ago, according two former Credit Suisse bankers who spoke in exclusive interviews with CNBC and are working with the U.S. government as whistleblowers.
The bank notoriously pleaded guilty in 2014 to criminal charges for “knowingly and willfully” helping thousands of U.S. clients conceal their offshore assets and income from the IRS. It admitted at the time that it used sham entities, destroyed account records, and hand delivered cash to American clients to avert IRS detection — agreeing to crack down on U.S. tax dodgers going forward as part of its plea deal. Credit Suisse also agreed at the time to a host of reforms, including disclosing its cross-border activities and cooperating with authorities when they request information, among other things.
The now troubled bank appears to have violated that agreement, according to a new report by the Senate Finance Committee that details ongoing and rampant abuse since then. The report, released Wednesday, details the findings of the panel’s two-year investigation and takes on more urgency given the looming banking crisis. The Swiss National Bank, the country’s central bank, injected more than $100 billion of liquidity into Credit Suisse to keep it afloat earlier this month, while the Swiss government agreed to provide UBS with some $9 billion to backstop losses resulting from the takeover.
Senate investigators say the new revelations raise questions about just how much American money remains hidden inside the vaults of a bank whose collapse rattled the foundations of the global banking system.
The Senate report, which was prepared by the panel’s Democratic staff, accuses the bank of violating the terms of its 2014 plea agreement, which could trigger a host of repercussions if the Justice Department presses the case. It is unclear how much potential liability UBS is exposed to as a result of the report, but a lawyer for the whistleblowers argues the bank should pay as much as $1.3 billion.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said his committee had received new information just this week from Credit Suisse about additional American undisclosed accounts that the bank held after 2014.
“It is still going on as of just the last couple of days — even more money has been found to have been concealed and there are very substantial issues here,” Wyden said. “Clearly, it’s time to prosecute and ensure that there are penalties that send a strong message.”
“Credit Suisse employees aided and abetted a major criminal tax evasion scheme,” a finance committee aide said, asking not to be named because the report had not been released yet. “To date, no Credit Suisse employees involved in the scheme have faced any consequences from the United States government for their participation.”
Senate investigators say they discovered that Credit Suisse enabled as many as 25 American families to hide fortunes totaling more than $700 million in the bank in the years after Credit Suisse’s plea agreement.
“They thought they could get away with it, and they largely did,” the aide said. “It’s not a question of whether Swiss banks continue to do this, it’s a question of which Swiss banks still do this.”
In a statement to CNBC, a Credit Suisse spokeswoman said it does not tolerate tax evasion.
“In its core, the report describes legacy issues, some from a decade ago, and we have implemented extensive enhancements since then to root out individuals who seek to conceal assets from tax authorities,” the spokeswoman said, asking not to be identified because she was not authorized to speak on the record. She said the bank’s new leadership team has been cooperating with the committee. Credit Suisse has “supported the work of Senator Wyden, including in respect of suggested policy solutions to help strengthen the financial industry’s ability to detect undisclosed US persons.” She said the bank’s policy requires it to close undeclared accounts when they’re identified and discipline employees who don’t follow its policy.
A sign of Credit Suisse bank is seen at their headquarters in Zurich on March 20, 2023.
Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images
The two former Credit Suisse employees, who worked as whistleblowers with the U.S. government and Senate investigators, told CNBC some of the bad behavior continued long after Credit Suisse’s 2014 plea agreement. CNBC agreed to mask their identities on camera and to maintain their anonymity because they say they fear retaliation from the bank. They were interviewed in the weeks before Credit Suisse collapsed earlier this month.
Although the bank did disclose and close many American accounts after its 2014 plea agreement, some bankers worked with high net worth clients to keep certain Americans at the bank, by changing the nationalities listed on their accounts and ignoring evidence that the account holders were Americans. In other cases, they helped American clients move money to other banks, without reporting those transfers to U.S. authorities, the whistleblowers say.
The report and interviews offer a rare look at the inner workings of the secretive Swiss banking, a world rarely penetrated by outsiders. And they show how compliance systems inside Credit Suisse broke down in the years before its collapse this month and rescue by the Swiss government and rival bank UBS.
Bankers are under constant pressure, the whistleblowers said, to keep and bring in deposits at the bank.
“You’re under tremendous pressure to bring in these net new assets, which ultimately translate into revenue,” the first whistleblower said in describing a culture where bankers were expected to keep the assets of wealthy clients inside the bank, even if they had to cheat to do it. “And that’s the reason for the fraud. You don’t want to lose assets. So, what you do is you try to maintain them in any way, shape, or form.”
Senior executives would call out individual bankers at quarterly meetings where they would read out the asset numbers for each banker. If a banker’s number declined, the second whistleblower said, “you’d get exposed in front of your colleagues.” And as a result, he said, “there may come moments where people simply omit saying things.”
“‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ is maybe a good explanation to what happened,” he said. “They would have clients that are Americans, but they would switch their passports around to show and flag as if they are not.”
Credit Suisse bankers, for instance, repeatedly flew to Miami to meet with American clients and yet failed to flag them as U.S. citizens, Senate investigators said.
Secrecy drives the entire Swiss banking industry, the first whistleblower said – to a point that the sector may not be able to survive without it.
“Swiss banks are much more expensive, and there’s a reason for that,” he said. “If you could choose anywhere in the world you want to be, why would you pay more? Why would you be in a place which underperforms in terms of your return on assets?”
If a client isn’t hiding assets in Switzerland, the first whistleblower said, “there’s no other reason to be there.”
Emails obtained by the Senate Finance committee show just how far the bankers went to keep identities secret and to ensure wealthy Americans were able to switch nationalities — at least for the bank’s internal record-keeping.
In one email, one of Credit Suisse’s banker writes to another bank employee, “please don’t write or document these topics.”
One American client, an heir to a $200 million fortune deposited at Credit Suisse, emailed to say they renounced their U.S. citizenship.
“I tried to reach you, congratulation!!!!!” their private banker emailed back. “This is a big step for you and I know it was not easy.”
The heir to the fortune replied, “Thanks … hopefully this should also make Credit Suisse now more relaxed.”
“The committee’s investigation uncovered major violations of Credit Suisse’s plea agreement, including an ongoing and potentially criminal tax conspiracy involving nearly $100 million dollars and undeclared offshore accounts belonging to a family of dual U.S./Latin American citizens,” a committee aide told CNBC.
The aide said Credit Suisse closed accounts held by that family worth nearly $100 million in 2013 and moved funds to other banks in Switzerland and elsewhere, but did not inform U.S. authorities about the transfer of assets until 2021 – which was months after whistleblowers informed U.S. authorities of the existence of the accounts.
In the Senate report the clients are not named, but simply referred to as “The Family.”
While it’s legal for Americans to hold funds in foreign bank accounts, they must file forms with the IRS disclosing the assets and pay taxes on any relevant gains. Americans must file a disclosure document called a Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts, which is referred to in the industry as an “FBAR.”
The committee said the family held assets at Credit Suisse dating as far back as 1979, and they found evidence Credit Suisse bankers visited members in the family in Miami as early as 2000, holding meetings at the Mandarin Oriental hotel and enjoying meals at the Capital Grille restaurant in Miami’s fashionable Brickell neighborhood overlooking Biscayne Bay.
But aides say they didn’t find any evidence the family ever filed required paperwork with the U.S. government or paid taxes on their assets. Instead, the assets were held under one family member’s dual Latin American passport.
As a result, the aide said, “They’re potentially in legal jeopardy, to put it mildly.”
Committee aides say the family’s assets were overseen by a high-level Credit Suisse executive in its Latin American division, and that official participated in the meetings in Miami. That’s notable, aides said, because that same official was the supervisor of several other Credit Suisse bankers who were previously indicted in connection with the 2014 American offshore accounts.
Committee aides complained that Credit Suisse declined to provide the names of any of the employees involved or the Swiss banks that received the funds – but said they were able to determine that information through other sources.
The Miami case “is not small potatoes,” a Senate aide said. If proven, it “would be one of the largest FBAR violations in United States history.”
Former Justice Department prosecutor Jeffrey Neiman, who is representing the whistleblowers, said he believes fraud is still ongoing and the DOJ should claw back hundreds of millions of dollars in fines that the bank agreed to pay in 2014, but ultimately didn’t have to pay. The bank agreed to pay $2.6 billion, but a federal judge only imposed a penalty of $1.3 billion at the time.
“I think Credit Suisse is aware of Americans who are still hiding money today. And I think the bank is doing whatever it can to contain whatever this damage is,” Neiman said.
“At a minimum, the U.S. government needs to collect that $1.3 billion for the American taxpayers. This bank needs to be made an example of,” he said. “We hear tough talk out of the Justice Department about holding repeat corporate offenders accountable. Let’s see if those words have actual meaning.”
The whistleblowers stand to gain financially if there are further payments to the U.S. government. Under the law, whistleblowers stand to collect between 15% and 30% of any money recovered by the U.S. government as a direct result of information they provide.
The Senate Finance Committee doesn’t think U.S. prosecutors have gone far enough in holding Credit Suisse accountable, the aide said. The report is part of a campaign to up the pressure on the DOJ to crack down on the Swiss bank, and the recent takeover of the bank puts it squarely in the spotlight.
“DOJ must correct its lax oversight of Credit Suisse and hold Credit Suisse accountable for any violations of its plea agreement,” he said.
The aide cited recent indications of a white-collar crackdown. “DOJ said we will go after anybody at banks who commits tax evasion,” the aide said. “Then do it. We’re going to drop you twelve names in this report. Go after them.”
The Justice Department declined to comment when contacted for this story.
It’s not clear what liability, if any, UBS assumed for all this as a result of its emergency government-brokered takeover of Credit Suisse on March 19. It is also not clear how much of this potential legal overhang was disclosed to UBS before its acquisition of Credit Suisse, although a source familiar with Credit Suisse’s thinking said UBS officials are aware of the situation.
Officials at UBS did not respond to a request for comment for this story.
A person familiar with Credit Suisse’s thinking told CNBC that it is “disquieting” for the Senate Finance Committee to release its report even as global regulators are trying to shore up the global banking system by facilitating the sale of Credit Suisse to UBS. “The financial services sector and its importance to the world economy has become blatantly obvious to everyone,” the person said.
When asked if he could say for certain that there are no undeclared American dollars in the bank today, the person said: “I don’t believe there is anything there that could be described in this way. Now, you can never say never.” He said Credit Suisse has investigated and not found any more illicit accounts. “I don’t believe there is anything there.”
— CNBC’s Bria Cousins contributed to this article.
UBS Group AG said Wednesday that it has decided to appoint Sergio P. Ermotti as its new chief executive replacing Ralph Hamers, and said the change is a result of its planned acquisition of rival Credit Suisse Group AG.
The appointment of Mr. Ermotti–who was UBS’s UBS CH:UBSG CEO in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and stepped down in 2020 after nine years in the role–will become effective on April 5, the bank said.
UBS’ acquisition of the failing Credit Suisse reframes the European banking market, but also presents significant technological challenges for UBS. The $1.5 trillion, Zurich-based UBS moves from “too big to fail” to “way too big to fail” with the $3.2 billion purchase of Credit Suisse, with global ramifications should the acquisition go sour, Jost Hoppermann, […]
In the wake of recent market volatility and steep share price falls, Morgan Stanley cautioned that the European banking sector is “not as attractive as it was.” On Friday, Deutsche Bank shares fell as concerns about the stability of European banks persisted after the forced acquisition of embattled Credit Suisse by its rival UBS . The German lender’s shares retreated for a third consecutive day and have now lost more than a fifth of their value this month. Morgan Stanley strategists cautioned that although the banking sector is now cheaper, news flow surrounding earnings upgrades and cash return expectations may fade or reverse. They also suggest that the cyclical window for European banks had closed — and investors should reduce exposure to the sector. “While we don’t know yet exactly how things will play out for financials from here, we are confident that the economic outlook has deteriorated and that the window for ongoing good/improving macro data is beginning to close,” said Morgan Stanley’s strategists led by Graham Secker. “We are reluctant to downgrade the sector just here as we see scope for volatility to emerge on the upside as well as the downside … however, we see further uncertainty ahead and would look to reduce exposure into any material rally,” the team added, also telling clients that “banks will be volatile up and down – we would sell into rallies.” The report highlights that every rate hiking cycle over the past 70 years has ended in a recession or a financial crisis, with the current turmoil proving no exception. Although financial crises do not always lead to recessions, the odds are unfavorable given recent events, such as tightening credit availability and a deeply inverted yield curve, according to the strategists. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields reached 110 basis points on the day before the Silicon Valley Bank meltdown but now stands at just 34 basis points. According to Morgan Stanley, this steepening after the failure of SVB Financial , Silvergate and Signature Bank in the U.S. and forced takeover of Credit Suisse signals an impending slowdown. On a top-down basis, Morgan Stanley recommended the following overweight-rated (a buy equivalent rating) stocks to navigate this environment with a defensive exposure. Stocks in traditionally defensive sectors, such as health care and utilities, are being recommended by Morgan Stanley. They are Swisscom , KPN , Novo Nordisk , Ahold , and SSE , among others. Citi bank has also downgraded the European banking sector . Strategists at the Wall Street bank said investors should focus on technology as the market faces increased tail risks due to concerns about the flow of credit at the major lenders. The banking concerns have also impacted the case for European equities outperforming their U.S. counterparts. Previously, European equities were expected to outperform due to a potential U.S. economic slowdown or a Fed-induced sell-off in the S & P 500. However, Morgan Stanley said the banking sector’s problems have shifted this perspective, as the outperformance of European banks has been closely tied to the broader European market. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting