The European Commission plans to restrict exports of aluminum scrap amid concerns that rising outflows of the resource could leave Europe short of a critical input for its decarbonization efforts.
“We are launching the preparatory work on a new measure to address the issue of aluminium scrap leakage,” said EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic at the European Aluminum Summit on Tuesday.
Europe is trying to get itself on the global rare-earths map, and a new facility on Russia’s border is its opening bid.
The city of Narva in Estonia, once a textiles hub for the Russian Empire, is now host to Europe’s biggest production plant for the kinds of rare-earth magnets needed in electric cars and wind turbines. It is part of Europe’s push to secure a foothold in a global supply chain dominated at every step by China. Built by Canada’s Neo Performance Materials and financed in part by the European Union, the factory is expected to begin commercial deliveries to companies including the German car-parts supplier Robert Bosch next year.
The underground wealth beneath the Arctic city of Kiruna fuels Sweden’s economy and is a central cog in one of Europe’s core defense industries. It has also, quite literally, undermined the city’s foundation, prompting an unprecedented urban relocation project.
Kiruna is home to one the world’s largest deposits of iron ore, used to produce Swedish jet fighters and combat vehicles. Two years ago, mining officials announced that the city, about 90 miles north of the Arctic Circle, also sits on what could be the largest find of rare earths in Europe.
JOHANNESBURG (AP) — An elevator suddenly dropped around 200 meters (656 feet) while carrying workers to the surface in a platinum mine in South Africa, killing 11 and injuring 75, the mine operator said Tuesday.
It happened Monday evening at the end of the workers’ shift at a mine in the northern city of Rustenburg. The injured workers were hospitalized.
Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.
First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500
have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.
Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.
Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc. GOOGL
and Meta Platforms Inc. META,
which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.
On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.
Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds
rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.
The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills
yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.
Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”
Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:
Odeon Capital Group, Bloomberg
Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.
This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.
We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.
Screening for lower valuations and high ratings
A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.
Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:
Sector or index
Current P/E to 5-year average
Current P/E to 10-year average
Current P/E to 15-year average
Forward P/E
5-year average P/E
10-year average P/E
15-year average P/E
Utilities
82%
86%
95%
14.99
18.30
17.40
15.82
Real Estate
76%
80%
81%
15.19
19.86
18.89
18.72
Consumer Staples
93%
96%
105%
18.61
19.92
19.30
17.64
Healthcare
103%
104%
115%
16.99
16.46
16.34
14.72
Financials
88%
92%
97%
12.90
14.65
14.08
13.26
Materials
100%
103%
111%
16.91
16.98
16.42
15.27
Industrials
88%
96%
105%
17.38
19.84
18.16
16.56
Energy
106%
63%
73%
11.78
11.17
18.80
16.23
Consumer Discretionary
79%
95%
109%
24.09
30.41
25.39
22.10
Information Technology
109%
130%
146%
24.20
22.17
18.55
16.54
Communication Services
86%
86%
94%
16.41
19.09
19.00
17.43
S&P 500
94%
101%
112%
17.94
19.01
17.76
16.04
DJ Industrial Average
93%
98%
107%
16.25
17.49
16.54
15.17
Nasdaq Composite Index
92%
102%
102%
24.62
26.71
24.18
24.18
Nasdaq-100 Index
97%
110%
126%
24.40
25.23
22.14
19.43
There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.
If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.
A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.
We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:
Current forward P/E below 5-, 10- and 15-year average valuations. For stocks with negative earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months, there is no forward P/E ratio so they were excluded. For stocks listed for less than 15 years, we required at least a 5-year average P/E for comparison. This brought the list down to 138 companies.
“Buy” or equivalent ratings from at least two-thirds of analysts: 41 companies.
Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.
There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information:
Shares of Alcoa Corp. slumped to a multiyear low Monday as the aluminum company said that Roy Harvey had been replaced as chief executive officer after seven years in the role.
The company named William Oplinger as president and CEO, effective Sunday. Oplinger had served as Alcoa’s chief operations officer since February and before that as chief financial officer since November 2016.
Alcoa’s stock AA, -5.20%
dropped 5.1% in morning trading. That put it on track for the lowest close since March 1, 2021. It has tumbled 18% over the past three months and plunged 40.8% year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX
has rallied 12.8% this year.
“In our opinion, investors have expressed concern around cash flow and the company’s medium to long-term outlook,” B. Riley analyst Lucas Pipes wrote in a note to clients. “While the timing of the transition is somewhat unexpected, we believe Mr. Oplinger is the most well-positioned candidate for the CEO role.”
Harvey had been CEO since the company completed its separation from Arconic Inc. in November 2016. Arconic was acquired by Apollo Global Management Inc. APO, +1.55%
in a deal that was completed in August 2023.
“The transition of the president and CEO roles reflects the company’s succession planning process,” Alcoa said in a statement.
“Our board believes Bill’s extensive experience with Alcoa makes him well-positioned to carry the company forward,” said Steven Williams, Alcoa’s board chair.
B. Riley’s Pipes said that as Alcoa has faced challenging aluminum markets in recent quarters, and given the troubles associated with approvals of mine plans in Australia, he believes the change in leadership reflects the company’s desire to reposition its asset base for stronger cash-flow generation.
“While Mr. Harvey has successfully transformed Alcoa in recent years, particularly as [Alcoa] has aggressively deleveraged, we believe the transition will be viewed favorably by investors,” Pipes wrote.
Stelco and U.S. Steel didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment
A bid, if it happened, would be surprising. U.S. Steel is much larger than Stelco. The Canadian steel maker shipped about 2.6 million tons of steel in 2022, while U.S. Steel shipped about 15 million. Stelco’s enterprise value, including stock and debt, is about $1 billion. U.S. Steel’s is about $9 billion.
“That makes it an upstart and we suppose the key to handicapping its chances is knowing who it is partnered with. If that partner is an investor with deep pockets, we won’t be so quick to dismiss Stelco’s chances,” wrote Gordon Haskett analyst Don Bilson in a report Friday. “For now, however, we’re going to view it as a long shot.”
Stelco likely would need a partner to complete a merger.
The possible bid is surprising in another way, too. Stelco was actually once owned by U.S. Steel. The American firm bought it 2007 after Stelco filed for bankruptcy protection. Stelco filed for bankruptcy again in 2014 and was purchased by Bedrock Industries in 2017 before listing as a public company again later that year.
“Recent history has not been kind to companies that have tried to recombine with a former partner,” added Bilson, citing
(PARA) shares are down about 70% since the merger plan was announced in August 2019.
That bids are emerging for U.S. Steel isn’t surprising, though. On Aug. 13, the company said it was exploring strategic options, which could include a sale of the company. Since then, steel maker
(CLF) and steel service center Esmark have announced bids.
Esmark processes and distributes steel, rather than producing it. The company didn’t announce financing with its bid and has dropped out of the process.
(MT) was reportedly considering a bid. ArcelorMittal didn’t comment on a potential bid, which also would have been a little odd. Arcelor sold its U.S. operations to Cliffs in 2020.
U.S. Steel stock was about $23 a share before its announcement and bids started to emerge. The Cliffs bid, which is a mix of cash and stock, and is the only current bid with hard numbers attached to it, is currently worth $32.21 a share.
U.S. Steel stock was at $31.80 on Friday, up 1.8%. The
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, is trapped in a trading range, and volatility seems to be damping down considerably. The significant edges of the trading range are support at 4330 and resistance at 4540. Both of those levels were touched in the latter half of August. A breakout from this range should give the market some strong directional momentum.
Since Labor Day, prices have hunkered down into an even narrower range. Typically, the latter half of September through the early part of October…
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
When is it a good time to buy stocks? Some investors would say the current negativity dominating the financial media means you are better off sitting on the sidelines. Others would say it is always a good time to buy stocks, provided you can get them for good prices.
Count John Buckingham, editor of the Prudent Speculator, in the latter camp. He is a value investor with decades of experience. During an interview, he emphasized the importance of remaining disciplined through all market conditions. While he favors the value…
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
The initial version of this story had incorrect price changes for 2023. It is now updated with information as of the market close on Jan. 31.
Investors staged a January rally, with solid gains for the S&P 500 and an even better showing for technology stocks that led the dismal downward action in 2022.
Even during a year in which the S&P 500 index declined 19%, with 72% of its stocks in the red, there were plenty of winners.
Before showing you the list of the best performers in the benchmark index, let’s look at a preview: Here’s how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 SPX, -0.25%
performed for the year:
Index
2022 price change
Forward P/E
Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021
Energy
59.0%
9.7
11.1
Utilities
-1.4%
18.9
20.4
Consumer Staples
-3.2%
21.0
21.8
Health Care
-3.6%
17.6
17.2
Industrials
-7.1%
18.3
20.8
Financials
-12.4%
11.9
14.6
Materials
-14.1%
15.8
16.6
Real Estate
-28.4%
16.5
24.2
Information Technology
-28.9%
20.1
28.1
Consumer Discretionary
-37.6%
21.3
33.2
Communication Services
-40.4%
14.3
20.8
S&P 500
-19.4%
16.8
21.4
Source: FactSet
Maybe you aren’t surprised to see that the energy sector was the only one to increase during 2022. But it might surprise you to see that despite the sector’s weighted price increase of 59%, its forward price-to-earnings ratio declined and remains very low relative to all other sectors.
It might also surprise you that West Texas Intermediate crude oil CL.1, +2.69%
gave up most of its gains from earlier in the year:
FactSet
The reason investors are still confident in energy stocks is that oil producers have remained cautious when it comes to capital spending. They don’t want to increase supply enough to cause prices to crash, as they did in the run-up to the summer of 2014, after which prices fell steadily through early 2016, causing bankruptcies and consolidation in the industry.
Now the oil companies are focusing on maintaining supply, raising dividends and buying back shares, as Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s OXY, +1.14%
chief executive explained in a recent interview with Matt Peterson. Click here for more about Occidental and the long-term supply/demand outlook for oil.
Best-performing S&P 500 stocks of 2022
Here are the 20 stocks in the benchmark index that rose most during 2022, excluding dividends. Proving that there are always exceptions, not all of them are in the energy sector.
