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Tag: population trends

  • On the Move: As DC region gets older, talent supply isn’t growing – WTOP News

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    The D.C. region is aging, a shift that experts say is the result of a declining birth rate, expensive housing and flexibility that comes with hybrid or remote work opportunities.

    This story is Part 2 of WTOP’s three-part series “On the Move: The D.C. region’s population trends.” Read Part 1 on the D.C. region becoming more diverse here

    The D.C. region is aging, a shift that experts say is the result of a declining birth rate, expensive housing and flexibility that comes with hybrid or remote work opportunities.

    Neighborhoods across the area added more people 65 and older than under 18, according to a WTOP analysis of local census data from the midway point of 2024. The data, released this summer, showed similar trends nationally. Overall, the U.S. population 65 and older rose by over 3%, while the under 18 population decreased by 0.2%, the Census Bureau said.

    In some cases, the result is a war for talent, according to Hamilton Lombard, a demographer at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

    “The talent supply is not really growing,” Lombard said. “We have some immigration, but the number of people turning 18 is going to start shrinking. You’re having communities focusing more on trying to attract workers, and some areas have historically done better than the D.C. area, at least the last decade or so, because they have a lower cost of living, and it makes them more attractive.”

    Major metropolitan areas across the country are aging in similar ways, and it’s a shift that’s partially the result of losing families. The increase in housing prices during the pandemic “just didn’t come back down, and that’s made the D.C. area particularly unaffordable for a lot of families,” Lombard said.

    Some families are moving to the outskirts of the D.C. region, to places such as Hagerstown, Fredericksburg or Maryland’s Eastern Shore. In some cases, those places are seeing a drop in median age, which Lombard described as unusual.

    “There’s just not enough housing, and so housing costs have gotten really expensive in Maryland as a whole, and especially in some of the D.C. suburbs, but also in many of the Baltimore suburbs as well,” said Michael Bader, director of the 21st Century Cities Initiative at Johns Hopkins University. “So that has diminished opportunities here.”

    According to census data as of July 1, 2024, in D.C. 2,013 more people over 65 were added last year, compared to 499 people under 18. In Montgomery County, Maryland, there were over 7,000 more people 65 and older compared to 2023. There were over 1,200 more people under 18 added in 2024. Prince George’s County reported over 350 more people under 18 compared to 2023. Conversely, it added over 6,100 people 65 and older.

    In Fairfax County, Virginia, there were almost 7,000 more people 65 and older compared to 2023. There were 751 more people under 18. Loudoun County reported over 3,017 more people 65 and older, and a drop of over 800 people under 18.

    In Fairfax, Lombard said the number of births is down 20% over the last eight years of data available, double what’s been reported in Virginia.

    “That’s really been driven by families moving out,” Lombard said. “Fairfax County has some of the highest housing prices in the country, definitely some of the highest on the East Coast.”

    Remote and hybrid work schedules provide more flexibility, but Lombard said the region aging comes with consequences.

    “That’s going to be a really big issue when you look at the D.C. area going forward, is how can they continue to bring in young workers when you have all these other areas really competing effectively,” Lombard said.

    When the D.C. area reaches the point when the number of people turning 18 is declining, “if you don’t have more immigration, ultimately you’re going to see the labor force shrink,” Lombard said.

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  • Goodbye child care centers, hello elderly homes: South Korea prepares for aging population | CNN

    Goodbye child care centers, hello elderly homes: South Korea prepares for aging population | CNN

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    Seoul, South Korea
    CNN
     — 

    South Korea is getting older – and its care facilities are changing to match.

    The number of child care facilities in the country has shrunk by almost a quarter in just a few years, reflecting authorities’ unsuccessful campaign to encourage couples to have more babies.

    In 2017, there were more than 40,000 child care facilities, according to new government figures released Friday – by the end of last year, that number had fallen to roughly 30,900.

    Meanwhile, as the population rapidly ages, the number of elderly facilities has boomed from 76,000 in 2017 to 89,643 in 2022, according to the country’s health and welfare ministry.

    Elderly facilities include senior care homes, specialized hospitals, and welfare agencies that help the elderly navigate social services or protections. Meanwhile, the child care facilities listed include public services as well as private and corporate ones.

    The shift illustrates a years-long problem South Korea has thus far failed to reverse. It has both one of the world’s fastest aging populations and the world’s lowest birth rate, which has been falling continuously since 2015 despite authorities offering financial incentives and housing subsidies for couples with more babies.

    Experts attribute this low birth rate to various factors, including demanding work cultures, stagnating wages, rising costs of living, the financial burden of raising children, changing attitudes toward marriage and gender equality, and rising disillusionment among younger generations.

    By the late 2000s, the government had begun warning that policy measures were needed to encourage families to grow. Last September, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol admitted that more than $200 billion has been spent trying to boost the population over the past 16 years.

    But so far nothing has worked – and the effects have been increasingly visible in the social fabric and day-to-day life.

    Many elementary, middle and high schools are closing around the country due to a lack of school-age children, according to Korean news agency Yonhap, citing the education ministry. Figures from the country’s official statistics body show the overall number of middle and high schools have remained stagnant for years, only rising by a few dozen since 2015.

    In Daejeon, south of Seoul, one such abandoned school has become a popular spot for photographers and urban explorers; images show eerily empty hallways and a school yard overgrown by wild grass.

    A photographer outside an abandoned school near Daejeon, South Korea, on March 22, 2014.

    Similar crises have been seen in other East Asian countries with falling birth rates. One village in Japan went 25 years without recording a single birth. The arrival of a baby in 2016 was heralded as a miracle, with elderly well-wishers hobbling to the infant’s house to hold him.

    Meanwhile, South Korea’s expanding elderly population has meant an explosion in demand for senior services, placing strain on a system scrambling to keep up.

    South Korea has the highest elderly poverty rate among the OECD nations (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), with more than 40% of people over 65 years old facing “relative poverty,” defined by the OECD as having income lower than 50% of median household disposable income.

    “In Korea, the pension system is still maturing, and current generations still have very low pensions,” the OECD wrote in a 2021 report.

    Experts point to other factors such as global economic trends, the breakdown of old social structures that saw children looking after their parents, and insufficient government support for those struggling financially.

    That means a number of homeless elderly people – part of a generation that helped rebuild the country after the Korean War – having to seek assistance from shelters and soup kitchens.

    The rapid rise in elderly facilities in recent years may help alleviate some of these problems. But longer-term concerns remain about the future of Korea’s economy, as the number of young workers – who are crucial in propping up the health care and pension systems – slowly dwindle.

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  • Japan’s population drops by half a million in 2022 | CNN

    Japan’s population drops by half a million in 2022 | CNN

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    Tokyo, Japan
    CNN
     — 

    Japan’s population has fallen for the 12th consecutive year, as deaths rise and the birth rate continues to sink, according to government data released Wednesday.

    The population stood at 124.49 million in 2022 – representing a decline of 556,000 from the previous year, figures show.

    That figure represents both the natural change in population – meaning deaths and births – and the flow of people entering and exiting the country.

    The natural change last year was the biggest on record, with a fall of 731,000 – cushioned by the influx of people entering Japan, which provided an increase of 175,000, said Cabinet Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno in a news conference on Wednesday.

    “It is essential to take firm measures to address the declining birthrate, which is a major factor in the decline in population, as one of the top priority issues to be addressed,” said Matsuno.

    Japan has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, as well as one of the highest life expectancies; in 2020, nearly one in 1,500 people in Japan were age 100 or older, according to government data.

    That means a swelling elderly population, shrinking workforce, and not enough young people to fill in the gaps – posing a demographic crisis decades in the making.

    The trend is seen across the country, with all of Japan’s 47 prefectures except Tokyo reporting a decline in residents last year, according to the data released Wednesday. One village in central Japan recorded just one newborn child in 25 years – a birth that was heralded as a miracle for the town’s elderly residents.

    The situation is so dire that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned lawmakers in January that the country is “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions” due to the falling birth rate.

    He added that child-rearing support was the government’s “most important policy,” and solving the issue “simply cannot wait any longer.”

    Some researchers and climate scientists argue that population decline could benefit our battered ecosystems and lower emissions as the climate crisis worsens. But it also spells trouble for countries like Japan, with fewer workers to fund pensions and healthcare, and fewer people to look after the elderly.

    In April, Japan launched its new Children and Families Agency, which focuses on measures to support parents such as establishing more daycare centers, and provides youth services such as counseling.

    Previous similar initiatives, often carried out by local authorities, have so far failed to turn things around.

    Busy urban lifestyles and long working hours leave little time for some Japanese to start families, and the rising costs of living that mean having a baby is simply too expensive for many young people.

    In 2022, Japan was ranked one of the world’s most expensive places to raise a child, according to research from financial institution Jefferies. And yet, the country’s economy has stalled since the early 1990s, meaning frustratingly low wages and little upward mobility.

    The drop in the number of Japanese nationals in the past year also highlights the government’s deeply conservative views on immigration. Foreigners accounted for just 2.2% of the population in 2021, according to the Japanese government, compared to 13.6% in the United States.

    These attitudes are widespread among the public, too; a 2021 study by the Pew Research Center found that about half of Japanese adults say having a diverse society makes their country a worse place to live – though this percentage is lower than in previous years.

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  • Beijing’s population has declined for the first time in 19 years | CNN

    Beijing’s population has declined for the first time in 19 years | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Beijing, the sprawling Chinese capital and one of the world’s biggest cities, saw its population drop last year for the first time in 19 years as the country grapples with a demographic crisis decades in the making.

    The city’s population of permanent residents fell from 21.88 million in 2021 to 21.84 million in 2022, a decline of 84,000. The number of migrants in Beijing – many of whom leave their rural homes to find work in the city – also fell from 2021 to 2022.

    The last time Beijing saw more deaths than births was 2003, when the fatal severe respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak emerged in southern China and ultimately infected more than 8,000 people around the world.

    Last year’s drop is a relatively small one, with the population’s natural growth rate dropping to -0.05 per thousand residents, according to official data.

    But it represents a larger problem seen across the country – China’s national population also shrank last year for the first time since the great famine in 1961.

    There are a combination of factors behind the drop: the far-reaching consequences of the one-child policy China introduced in the 1980s (but has since abandoned); changing attitudes toward marriage and family among Chinese youth; entrenched gender inequality and the challenges of raising children in China’s expensive cities.

    These issues are exacerbated by entrenched gender roles that often place the bulk of housework and child care on women – who, more educated and financially independent than ever, are increasingly unwilling to bear this unequal burden.

    The result has been years of stubbornly falling birth rates, as well as rising death rates as the country’s elderly population swells. The shrinking workforce has also prompted concerns about economic decline, which would pose a potential problem for the rest of the world, given China’s key role as the second-largest global economy.

    Beijing is far from the only Chinese hub experiencing this decline. The northeastern province of Liaoning, part of China’s rust belt, saw more than twice as many deaths as births last year, with the population falling by 324,000, according to provincial authorities.

    Various efforts by policymakers have so far failed to reverse the trend.

    Authorities launched a multi-agency plan last year to strengthen maternity leave and offer tax deductions and other perks to families; some cities have offered longer paternity leave, boosted childcare services and even offered cash handouts for families who have a third child.

    Weifang, a city in the central Shandong province, announced a new initiative earlier this week offering free public high school education for families’ third child, according to state media. And in January, the southwestern province of Sichuan announced it would drop restrictions on unmarried people having children, granting single parents access to benefits previously reserved for married couples.

    But many activists, women and other critics have said it’s not enough to solve deep-rooted structural problems.

    Frustrations rose during the pandemic, with many young Chinese fed up with the increasing pressure to have children – from a society and government that many say has provided them with little of the material and emotional security they need to raise a child.

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  • Republicans’ views of the US have become more pessimistic, polling shows | CNN Politics

    Republicans’ views of the US have become more pessimistic, polling shows | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Heading into the next presidential election, an analysis of CNN polls shows that Republicans have reverted to the deeply negative national outlook they held prior to Donald Trump’s presidential victory in 2016. They again are convinced the nation is in decline, and more often defensive against demographic and cultural changes in US society.

    In a poll conducted late in the summer of 2016, following Trump’s nomination, roughly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (49%) said America’s best days lay behind us. And while most said they considered the country’s increasing diversity enriching, 37% said they felt the increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups and nationalities in the US was, instead, threatening American culture.

    Three years later, during Trump’s presidency, only 18% of the party said the nation was past its peak days, with a similar 20% viewing diversity as a cultural threat.

    Since then, the GOP has reversed course, becoming less pluralistic and even more pessimistic. In CNN’s latest polling, released this week, the share of Republican-aligned adults who said the country’s best days are over had skyrocketed to 70%, while the percentage saying that America’s culture was threatened by increasing racial and ethnic diversity rebounded to 38%. In a question not asked in 2019, a broad 78% majority of Republican-aligned Americans also say that society’s values on sexual orientation and gender identity are changing for the worse.

    The party’s shift in perspective over the past four years took place across demographic lines. Between 2019 and 2023, the belief that the country’s best days are behind it rose by more than 40 percentage points across age, educational and gender lines. Additionally, the share considering diversity a threat rose by double digits in each group. That may suggest that the results sometimes represent not deep-seated beliefs so much as a reaction to the current political environment, including which party holds the presidency.

    But the survey also finds Republicans and Republican-leaners are far from wholly unified in their views, with a constellation of interrelated political, demographic and socioeconomic factors dividing views.

    One of the most persistent gaps appears along educational lines, with Republican-aligned college graduates less likely than those without degrees to favor a more active government, say the country’s best days have passed or to consider the country’s increased diversity threatening – though both groups share similarly negative views about changing values around gender and sexuality.

    Age also plays a role, as do gender and race: Those younger than 45 are less likely than older adults to call racial diversity a threat or to say values on gender identity and sexual orientation are changing for the worse, with a similar divide between GOP women and men, and between White people and people of color aligned with the party.

    Differences within the GOP are often magnified when demographics intersect. Roughly half (51%) of Republican-aligned adults ages 45 or older who don’t have a college degree say they consider the country’s increased diversity threatening, an opinion shared by a third or fewer within any other combination of age and education. And, within the GOP, 54% majority of male, White evangelical Christians find such diversity threatening, a view not shared by most of their female counterparts, or by majorities of those of other combinations of racial and religious backgrounds.

    Republicans’ unease with the way that the US is changing ties into opinions of Trump’s legacy. In the latest poll, a 57% majority of Republican-aligned adults who call racial diversity threatening also say it’s essential that the next GOP nominee would restore the policies of the Trump administration. So do nearly half of those who say values on gender and sexuality are changing for the worse (49%) or who feel the nation’s best days have come and gone (46%) – in each case, a significantly higher figure than among those who don’t share those views. Belief that Trump has had a good effect on the Republican Party, meanwhile, is 14 percentage points higher among those who say the US has peaked than among those who say its best days lie ahead.

    What’s less clear is whether those outlooks will drive support for Trump and his campaign, particularly with presumptive rivals like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also building messages around similar themes. At this early stage in the campaign, Republicans and Republican leaning-independents who say the US’s best days have passed are about equally likely to say they’d be enthusiastic about the possibility of a DeSantis nomination as they are to say the same of Trump. Relatively few currently express similar excitement about former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

    It’s also too early to tell what next year’s GOP primary electorate will look like. That’s a key factor, given the likely demographic divides both in whom Republicans support and in how likely they are to vote at all. Older and more highly educated voters are more likely to turn out. Exit polling suggests that in past cycles, older and more highly educated voters tended to turn out disproportionately. This far from the start of voting, it’s hard to tell who’s likely to show up, but both demographics and political preference could play a role in determining initial levels of enthusiasm heading into the election season. In the latest CNN poll, Republicans and Republican-leaners over age 45 who supported Trump were far more likely to report extreme enthusiasm about participating in next year’s primaries than those over 45 with a different candidate preference, or younger Republicans and Republican-leaners regardless of the candidate they back.

    The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from March 8-12 among a random national sample of 1,045 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents drawn from a probability-based panel. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points, it is larger for subgroups.

    This story has been updated with additional information.

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  • This community’s quarter century without a newborn shows the scale of Japan’s population crisis | CNN

    This community’s quarter century without a newborn shows the scale of Japan’s population crisis | CNN

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    Tokyo
    CNN
     — 

    When Kentaro Yokobori was born almost seven years ago, he was the first newborn in the Sogio district of Kawakami village in 25 years. His birth was like a miracle for many villagers.

    Well-wishers visited his parents Miho and Hirohito for more than a week – nearly all of them senior citizens, including some who could barely walk.

    “The elderly people were very happy to see [Kentaro], and an elderly lady who had difficulty climbing the stairs, with her cane, came to me to hold my baby in her arms. All the elderly people took turns holding my baby,” Miho recalled.

    During that quarter century without a newborn, the village population shrank by more than half to just 1,150 – down from 6,000 as recently as 40 years ago – as younger residents left and older residents died. Many homes were abandoned, some overrun by wildlife.

    Kawakami is just one of the countless small rural towns and villages that have been forgotten and neglected as younger Japanese head for the cities. More than 90% of Japanese now live in urban areas like Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto – all linked by Japan’s always-on-time Shinkansen bullet trains.

    That has left rural areas and industries like agriculture, forestry, and farming facing a critical labor shortage that will likely get worse in the coming years as the workforce ages. By 2022, the number of people working in agriculture and forestry had declined to 1.9 million from 2.25 million 10 years earlier.

    Yet the demise of Kawakami is emblematic of a problem that goes far beyond the Japanese countryside.

    The problem for Japan is: people in the cities aren’t having babies either.

    “Time is running out to procreate,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told a recent press conference, a slogan that seems so far to have fallen short of inspiring the city dwelling majority of the Japanese public.

    Amid a flood of disconcerting demographic data, he warned earlier this year the country was “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions.”

    The country saw 799,728 births in 2022, the lowest number on record and barely more than half the 1.5 million births it registered in 1982. Its fertility rate – the average number of children born to women during their reproductive years – has fallen to 1.3 – far below the 2.1 required to maintain a stable population. Deaths have outpaced births for more than a decade.

    And in the absence of meaningful immigration – foreigners accounted for just 2.2% of the population in 2021, according to the Japanese government, compared to 13.6% in the United States – some fear the country is hurtling toward the point of no return, when the number of women of child-bearing age hits a critical low from which there is no way to reverse the trend of population decline.

    All this has left the leaders of the world’s third-largest economy facing the unenviable task of trying to fund pensions and health care for a ballooning elderly population even as the workforce shrinks.

    Up against them are the busy urban lifestyles and long working hours that leave little time for Japanese to start families and the rising costs of living that mean having a baby is simply too expensive for many young people. Then there are the cultural taboos that surround talking about fertility and patriarchal norms that work against mothers returning to work.

    Doctor Yuka Okada, the director of Grace Sugiyama Clinic in Tokyo, said cultural barriers meant talking about a woman’s fertility was often off limits.

    “(People see the topic as) a little bit embarrassing. Think about your body and think about (what happens) after fertility. It is very important. So, it’s not embarrassing.”

    Okada is one of the rare working mothers in Japan who has a highly successful career after childbirth. Many of Japan’s highly educated women are relegated to part-time or retail roles – if they reenter the workforce at all. In 2021, 39% of women workers were in part-time employment, compared to 15% of men, according to the OECD.

    Tokyo is hoping to address some of these problems, so that working women today will become working mothers tomorrow. The metropolitan government is starting to subsidize egg freezing, so that women have a better chance of a successful pregnancy if they decide to have a baby later in life.

    New parents in Japan already get a “baby bonus” of thousands of dollars to cover medical costs. For singles? A state sponsored dating service powered by Artificial Intelligence.

    Kaoru Harumashi works on cedar wood to make a barrel.

    Whether such measures can turn the tide, in urban or rural areas, remains to be seen. But back in the countryside, Kawakami village offers a precautionary tale of what can happen if demographic declines are not reversed.

    Along with its falling population, many of its traditional crafts and ways of life are at risk of dying out.

    Among the villagers who took turns holding the young Kentaro was Kaoru Harumashi, a lifelong resident of Kawakami village in his 70s. The master woodworker has formed a close bond with the boy, teaching him how to carve the local cedar from surrounding forests.

    “He calls me grandpa, but if a real grandpa lived here, he wouldn’t call me grandpa,” he said. “My grandson lives in Kyoto and I don’t get to see him often. I probably feel a stronger affection for Kentaro, whom I see more often, even though we are not related by blood.”

    Both of Harumashi’s sons moved away from the village years ago, like many other young rural residents do in Japan.

    “If the children don’t choose to continue living in the village, they will go to the city,” he said.

    When the Yokoboris moved to Kawakami village about a decade ago, they had no idea most residents were well past retirement age. Over the years, they’ve watched older friends pass away and longtime community traditions fall by the wayside.

    “There are not enough people to maintain villages, communities, festivals, and other ward organizations, and it is becoming impossible to do so,” Miho said.

    “The more I get to know people, I mean elderly people, the more I feel sadness that I have to say goodbye to them. Life is actually going on with or without the village,” she said. “At the same time, it is very sad to see the surrounding, local people dwindling away.”

    Kaoru Harumashi is a lifelong villager. Kentaro calls him grandpa.

    If that sounds depressing, perhaps it’s because in recent years, Japan’s battle to boost the birthrate has given few reasons for optimism.

    Still, a small ray of hope may just be discernible in the story of the Yokoboris. Kentaro’s birth was unusual not only because the village had waited so long, but because his parents had moved to the countryside from the city – bucking the decades old trend in which the young increasingly plump for the 24/7 convenience of Japanese city life.

    Some recent surveys suggest more young people like them are considering the appeals of country life, lured by the low cost of living, clean air, and low stress lifestyles that many see as vital to having families. One study of residents in the Tokyo area found 34% of respondents expressed an interest in moving to a rural area, up from 25.1% in 2019. Among those in their 20s, as many as 44.9% expressed an interest.

    The Yokoboris say starting a family would have been far more difficult – financially and personally – if they still lived in the city.

    Their decision to move was triggered by a Japanese national tragedy twelve years ago. On March 11, 2011, an earthquake shook the ground violently for several minutes across much of the country, triggering tsunami waves taller than a 10-story building that devastated huge swaths of the east coast and caused a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

    Miho was an office worker in Tokyo at the time. She remembers feeling helpless as daily life in Japan’s largest city fell apart.

    “Everyone was panicking, so it was like a war, although I have never experienced a war. It was like having money but not being able to buy water. All the transportation was closed, so you couldn’t use it. I felt very weak,” she recalled.

    The tragedy was a moment of awakening for Miho and Hirohito, who was working as a graphic designer at the time.

    “The things I had been relying on suddenly felt unreliable, and I felt that I was actually living in a very unstable place. I felt that I had to secure such a place by myself,” he said.

    The couple found that place in one of Japan’s most remote areas, Nara prefecture. It is a land of majestic mountains and tiny townships, tucked away along winding roads beneath towering cedar trees taller than most of the buildings.

    They quit their jobs in the city and moved to a simple mountain house, where they run a small bed and breakfast. He learned the art of woodworking and specializes in producing cedar barrels for Japanese sake breweries. She is a full-time homemaker. They raise chickens, grow vegetables, chop wood, and care for Kentaro, who’s about to enter the first grade.

    The big question, for both Kawakami village and the rest of Japan: Is Kentaro’s birth a sign of better times to come – or a miracle birth in a dying way of life.

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  • China to offer free fertility treatment in bid to boost record low birth rate | CNN

    China to offer free fertility treatment in bid to boost record low birth rate | CNN

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    China is planning to offer free fertility treatment to citizens under its national insurance scheme in a bid to reverse its plummeting birth rate.

    The National Healthcare Security Administration said on Friday it would extend its coverage to help shoulder the costs for families trying to conceive.

    It said the new coverage would include assisted reproductive technology (ART) techniques and also cover labor analgesia to ease pain in childbirth. The most commonly performed ART procedure is in vitro fertilization (IVF).

    The administration described China’s falling population as one of the biggest obstacles to national development and stressed it had already added ovulation-inducing drugs to its coverage, to help “reduce the burden of infertility.”

    The expanded coverage is part of a wider attempt by Chinese authorities to persuade more people to get married and have more children.

    The country’s birthrate has been falling for years and last year the country recorded its first population decline in more than 60 years.

    The country’s population fell to 1.411 billion in 2022, a drop of 850,000 people from the previous year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

    At the same time, the birthrate fell to a record low of 6.77 births per 1,000 people. Some 9.56 million babies were born in 2022, compared with 10.62 million in 2021.

    An increasing number of women in China are delaying marriages and choosing not to have children, often citing financial constraints, and the need to prioritize careers, according to Chen Wei, a professor at China’s Renmin University. Options covering costly procedures such as IVF may help to alleviate some of these pressures, said Chen. The average cost associated with IVF in cities such as Shanghai is between $4,500 to $5,000.

    China has 539 ART-approved medical institutions and 27 sperm banks as of June 2021, and each year these facilities facilitate more than one million IVF cycles, according to experts from the country’s National Clinical Research Center for Obstetrics and Gynecology.

    Policymakers are increasingly concerned about the impact China’s growing demographic crisis could have on economic growth.

    China introduced a highly controversial “one child” policy decades ago in an attempt to address fears of overpopulation and alleviate poverty, but decided to scrap it in 2015 amid concerns a rapidly aging population and shrinking workforce could threaten economic and social stability.

    Initially, it allowed couples to have up to two children, but later further loosened the policy to allow up to three.

    Chinese authorities are also moving to drop restrictions on registering the births of children born to unmarried parents in a country where unwed mothers still face stigma.

    In February, the provincial health commission of Sichuan – which is home to over 83 million people – said it would allow single parents to register the birth of their children, a move that granted them access to benefits previously reserved for married couples. These benefits included maternity insurance that covers prenatal healthcare, childbirth-related medical expenses and paid maternity leave.

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  • Taiwan’s military has a problem: As China fears grow, recruitment pool shrinks | CNN

    Taiwan’s military has a problem: As China fears grow, recruitment pool shrinks | CNN

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    Taipei, Taiwan
    CNN
     — 

    Taiwan has noticed a hole in its defense plans that is steadily getting bigger. And it’s not one easily plugged by boosting the budget or buying more weapons.

    The island democracy of 23.5 million is facing an increasing challenge in recruiting enough young men to meet its military targets and its Interior Ministry has suggested the problem is – at least in part – due to its stubbornly low birth rate.

    Taiwan’s population fell for the first time in 2020, according to the ministry, which warned earlier this year that the 2022 military intake would be the lowest in a decade and that a continued drop in the youth population would pose a “huge challenge” for the future.

    That’s bad news at a time when Taiwan is trying to bolster its forces to deter any potential invasion by China, whose ruling Communist Party has been making increasingly belligerent noises about its determination to “reunify” with the self-governed island – which it has never controlled – by force if necessary.

    And the outlook has darkened further with the release of a new report by Taiwan’s National Development Council projecting that by 2035 the island can expect roughly 20,000 fewer births per year than the 153,820 it recorded in 2021. By 2035, Taiwan will also overtake South Korea as the jurisdiction with the world’s lowest birth rate, the report added.

    Such projections are feeding into a debate over whether the government should increase the period of mandatory military service that eligible young men must serve. Currently, the island has a professional military force made up of 162,000 (as of June this year) – 7,000 fewer than the target, according to a report by the Legislative Yuan. In addition to that number, all eligible men must serve four months of training as reservists.

    Changing the mandatory service requirement would be a major U-turn for Taiwan, which had previously been trying to cut down on conscription and shortened the mandatory service from 12 months as recently as 2018. But on Wednesday, Taiwan’s Minister of National Defence Chiu Kuo-cheng said such plans would be made public before the end of the year.

    That news has met with opposition among some young students in Taiwan, who have voiced their frustrations on PTT, Taiwan’s version of Reddit, even if there is support for the move among the wider public.

    A poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation in March this year found that most Taiwanese agreed with a proposal to lengthen the service period. It found that 75.9% of respondents thought it reasonable to extend it to a year; only 17.8% were opposed.

    Many experts argue there is simply no other option.

    Su Tzu-yun, a director of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that before 2016, the pool of men eligible to join the military – either as career soldiers or as reservists – was about 110,000. Since then, he said, the number had declined every year and the pool would likely be as low as 74,000 by 2025.

    And within the next decade, Su said, the number of young adults available for recruitment by the Taiwanese military could drop by as much as a third.

    “This is a national security issue for us,” he said. “The population pool is decreasing, so we are actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs.

    “We are now facing an increasing threat (from China), and we need to have more firepower and manpower.”

    Taiwan’s low birth rate – 0.98 – is far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, but it is no outlier in East Asia.

    In November, South Korea broke its own world record when its birth rate dropped to 0.79, while Japan’s fell to 1.3 and mainland China hit 1.15.

    Even so, experts say the trend poses a unique problem for Taiwan’s military, given the relative size of the island and the threats it faces.

    China has been making increasingly aggressive noises toward the island since August, when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taipei. Not long after she landed in Taiwan, Beijing also launched a series of unprecedented military exercises around the island.

    Since then, the temperature has remained high – particularly as Chinese leader Xi Jinping told a key Communist Party meeting in October that “reunification” was inevitable and that he reserves the option of taking “all measures necessary.”

    Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan’s air force, said that while low birth rates were common across East Asia, “the situation in Taiwan is very different” as the island was facing “more and more pressure (from China) and the situation will become more acute.”

    “The United States has military bases in Japan and South Korea, while Singapore does not face an acute military threat from its neighbors. Taiwan faces the greatest threat and declining birth rate will make the situation even more serious,” he added.

    Roy Lee, a deputy executive director at Taiwan’s Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, agreed that the security threats facing Taiwan were greater than those in the rest of the region.

    “The situation is more challenging for Taiwan, because our population base is smaller than other countries facing similar problems,” he added.

    Taiwan’s population is 23.5 million, compared to South Korea’s 52 million, Japan’s 126 million and China’s 1.4 billion.

    Besides the shrinking recruitment pool, the decline in the youth population could also threaten the long-term performance of Taiwan’s economy – which is itself a pillar of the island’s defense.

    Taiwan is the world’s 21st largest economy, according to the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research, and had a GDP of $668.51 billion last year.

    Much of its economic heft comes from its leading role in the supply of semiconductor chips, which play an indispensable role in everything from smartphones to computers.

    Taiwan’s homegrown semiconductor giant TSMC is perceived as being so valuable to the global economy – as well as to China – that it is sometimes referred to as forming part of a “silicon shield” against a potential military invasion by Beijing, as its presence would give a strong incentive to the West to intervene.

    Lee noted that population levels are closely intertwined with gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic activity. A population decline of 200,000 people could result in a 0.4% decline in GDP, all else being equal, he said.

    “It is very difficult to increase GDP by 0.4%, and would require a lot of effort. So the fact that a declining population can take away that much growth is big,” he said.

    Taiwan’s government has brought in a series of measures aimed at encouraging people to have babies, but with limited success.

    It pays parents a monthly stipend of 5,000 Taiwan dollars (US$161) for their first baby, and a higher amount for each additional one.

    Since last year, pregnant women have been eligible for seven days of leave for obstetrics checks prior to giving birth.

    Outside the military, in the wider economy, the island has been encouraging migrant workers to fill job vacancies.

    Statistics from the National Development Council showed that about 670,000 migrant workers were in Taiwan at the end of last year – comprising about 3% of the population.

    Most of the migrant workers are employed in the manufacturing sector, the council said, the vast majority of them from Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

    Lee said in the long term the Taiwanese government would likely have to reform its immigration policies to bring in more migrant workers.

    Still, there are those who say Taiwan’s low birth rate is no reason to panic, just yet.

    Alice Cheng, an associate professor in sociology at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, cautioned against reading too much into population trends as they were affected by so many factors.

    She pointed out that just a few decades ago, many demographers were warning of food shortages caused by a population explosion.

    And even if the low birth rate endured, that might be no bad thing if it were a reflection of an improvement in women’s rights, she said.

    “The educational expansion that took place in the 70s and 80s in East Asia dramatically changed women’s status. It really pushed women out of their homes because they had knowledge, education and career prospects,” she said.

    “The next thing you see globally is that once women’s education level improved, fertility rates started declining.”

    “All these East Asian countries are really scratching their head and trying to think about policies and interventions to boost fertility rates,” she added.

    “But if that’s something that really, (women) don’t want, can you push them to do that?”

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  • Racist rhetoric greets increasing population of Latino students in this Tennessee county | CNN

    Racist rhetoric greets increasing population of Latino students in this Tennessee county | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Sitting in the back of a packed room in the Hamilton County Schools administration complex, Clara fought the urge to leave. She had taken the day off from her factory job to be there but was nervous to see a crowd of people supporting a board member who had referred to Latino students as a burden.

    On that fall afternoon, the mother of three felt like she carried the weight of those parents who wanted to defend their children but couldn’t show up out of fear, or could not leave their workplaces early to attend the school board meeting. Latino families who call Chattanooga, Tennessee, and its surrounding towns home are not invisible, and they don’t want to be a regular target of racist rhetoric and unequal treatment, she told CNN.

    “It hurts when someone speaks without really knowing our people and uses ill words to humiliate our children. It hurts because it’s hard to try to understand (English), be there, arrive on time and support my kids at school,” said Clara, 52, whose two younger sons attend schools in the district.

    “I’m not leaving because I want a much better future for my children,” she said.

    CNN agreed to only use Clara’s first name to protect her identity out of respect for her safety concerns.

    In the months since a Hamilton County Schools school board member suggested the rising number of Latino students who speak little to no English were overwhelming schools, several activists and educators who spoke with CNN said they received anti-immigrant, racist and hateful messages after condemning the remarks.

    In this county near the Tennessee-Georgia border, the growth in the Hispanic or Latino population has outpaced the national average. In the past decade, the number of residents who identified as Hispanic or Latino rose nearly 81% or more than 12,000 people, compared to 23% nationwide, according to US Census data.

    While the county’s more than 366,000 residents largely identify as White and about 7.4% identified as Hispanic or Latino in the 2020 Census, their presence has pushed a community with a dark racial history to face the inequalities that persist and adapt to a new normal that goes beyond the fractured Black-White paradigm that has characterized the South for a long time.

    Although there are ongoing efforts by the city and school officials to better serve Latino families, the demographic shift has also come with reminders of how heavily divided this region is and the fact that many Latinos live afraid of authorities because of their current or past immigration status.

    In an interview with The Chattanoogan in late August, Rhonda Thurman suggested the rising number of Latino students who speak little to no English were overwhelming schools. Thurman is a long-time board member representing schools with a majority White student population. She is known for her conservative views as well as her stance on books that have been deemed “inappropriate” for children by some or labeled “critical race theory.”

    “It is mind-boggling to me the burden it puts on the schools, the teachers and the taxpayers,” Thurman told the newspaper about the number of Latino students.

    “Teachers tell me they cannot give the attention they deserve to the English-speaking students because they have to devote so much time to try to help the Hispanic students catch up,” she said according to the newspaper.

    During the board meeting last month, members briefly discussed resources for Latino students offered by the school district or their interest in new initiatives. That was something that Clara said reinforced her frustration over the lack of support for Latino families and her conviction to overcome the fear that some people of color have toward those with conservative views.

    “I’m not afraid of speaking up and share my opinion, it’s where we live. This is the South and this area is absolutely closed (minded) in many aspects,” she said.

    Clara, center, embraces her sons Daniel and Benjamin.

    The Hamilton County Schools district comprises 76 institutions and serves 45,000 students. About 19% of students, or 8,702, are Hispanic but not all of them have limited English proficiency.

    There are 5,039 students considered English Language Learners currently enrolled, data shows. Diego Trujillo, director of the district’s English as a New Language Program, said Spanish is the top language for ELL but students speak more than 100 different languages, including Arabic, Mandarin, Vietnamese and five Mayan dialects.

    “When we think about English learners, there’s this association strictly to folks that are Spanish speaking, and when you look across the district we’re seeing a diversity of language,” Trujillo said.

    The school district declined to comment specifically on Thurman’s comments. Thurman has denied that she specifically called children a burden. She told CNN the number of Latino students were “burdening the system” and the school district was dealing with things it had not faced before.

    “Different people say different words and some people just jump on it because I happen to be a conservative and a Christian and some people just don’t like that,” Thurman said.

    Semillas, a non-profit group focused on racial and educational justice for the Latino community, has called for Thurman’s resignation and for a new task force to create an action plan that would better support the needs of Latino students and parents. Their online petition has garnered nearly 1,400 signatures.

    “While some programming has been developed over the years, Latinx community members have seen little to no proactive action to actually take a moment to meet and listen to the challenges and barriers Latinx and immigrant students and parents face each and every day,” said Mo Rodriguez-Cruz, the group’s co-founder and field director.

    A student looks at schoolwork during an English as a New Language class at The Howard High School.

    Taylor Lyons, co-founder of the local parent group Moms for Social Justice, said negativity toward Hispanic students is just the latest in a list of “hot button” issues that have been the focus of conservatives who live in the county. Over the past several years, Lyons said, conservatives have flooded school board meetings to fight mask and Covid-19 vaccine mandates as well as books in school libraries, which made her group subject of threats and accusations. In 2018, Moms for Social Justice launched an initiative to help teachers stock classrooms with books.

    “What it tells us is that you have a small but very loud minority of extremists, who are very uncomfortable with the cultural change around them. They’re uncomfortable with the demographic change,” Lyons said.

    In Chattanooga, the county seat that largely touts itself as progressive, residents are seeing the demographic shift manifest itself in many aspects of their lives.

    At The Howard School, a high school that is the pride of the city’s Black community, numerous photos of its Black alumni decorate the hallways, but most of its current students speak Spanish and are of Guatemalan descent. Most evenings, families can sit on wooden bleachers at amateur soccer matches and cheer as Spanish-language music blasts on speakers. In the city’s Rossville Boulevard, there has been an influx of Guatemalan restaurants and other businesses that proudly display the country’s flag or its national soccer team jersey.

    As the tensions spurred by changes in the student body came to light in recent school board meetings, students and teachers at two schools (Howard and East Side Elementary) in the district opted to keep focusing on creating an inclusive environment around them.

    Daisy Hernandez said her friends and classmates at The Howard High School are proud to embrace their background and culture at school.

    When Daisy Hernandez walked to her first class at The Howard School three years ago, she heard the chatter of her peers in English, Spanish and Mam, the Mayan language spoken in Guatemala and by her parents. There, the 17-year-old said she doesn’t see or feel the animosity that families like hers often experience while living in the South.

    “I see Howard as a school that helps us out in knowing other people. I’ve seen Black students talk to Hispanic students. I think that’s beautiful because we are becoming one,” said Hernandez, who is the high school’s student body president.

    The Howard School is the largest high school in the county and one of 10 schools in the district where Hispanic students surpass the number of students of any other racial or ethnic group. The number of English Language Learners at those schools this year represents 56% of all ELL students in the district.

    For decades, the school was known for predominantly serving Black students, but enrollment data shows that at least half of the student body has been Hispanic in the past five school years.

    At the start of the day, students listen to Assistant Principal Charles Mitchell read announcements in English and then in Spanish. The tradition, which began five years ago and required him to learn a new language, is one of the many ways “we go beyond our means just to include everybody,” Mitchell said.

    Jose Otero, an English as a New Language teacher who has been at the school for the past four years, said most Hispanic students at Howard are Guatemalan and fall into two major groups. Like Hernandez, some children were born and raised in Chattanooga to immigrant parents, and others recently migrated from Guatemala, El Salvador or Mexico along with their families or by themselves.

    Jose Otero is among several teachers helping the rising number of Latino students arriving in Hamilton County learn English.

    All students, Hispanic or Black, have different realities and different experiences, Otero said, and one thing that helps them connect with each other has been sports, especially soccer.

    Most of the 40 soccer players at Howard are Guatemalan and the larger school community has taken an interest in the team because they’ve been district champions in recent years, said Otero, who is also the school’s head soccer coach.

    “The kids are starting to appreciate each other’s culture and want to be a part of it. I think with time, there’s gonna be more Guatemalan kids playing basketball and baseball and football, and there’s gonna be more Black kids playing soccer,” Otero said.

    About two miles east of the high school, teacher Amanda Edens and her fifth-grade students at East Side Elementary finished reading “Esperanza Rising” by Pam Muñoz Ryan, a novel about a young girl who flees Mexico and settles in a farm camp in California.

    Edens, whose Spanish is limited, said she used the book to teach her students the curriculum while also connecting with them. They are mostly Hispanic, she said, and they enjoyed giggling every time she pronounced the Spanish phrases and words scattered throughout the book.

    The 37-year-old teacher is facing the challenging task of navigating a state law that requires public schools to teach only in English and serving a fast-growing number of students who are not fluent in the language.

    But it’s something that Edens and other teachers in Hamilton County told CNN they embrace and said it’s far from being a burden.

    Dual-language flags hang in a hallway at East Side Elementary in Chattanooga.

    “There’s obviously the challenge of how am I going to help a child attain educational success when we don’t speak the same language and I’m giving them complex fifth grade texts in English,” Edens said.

    “It’s not necessarily an easy thing, but it is super rewarding when that child starts asking: ‘can I go to the restroom?’ in English, or when they’re speaking Spanish to me and I recognize what they’re saying well enough to communicate back,” she added. “But I’ve never felt burdened by that.”

    At the elementary school, English as a New Language teachers “push in” or join the general education classes and work with small groups to reduce the time the students are away from their classroom. Trujillo, the director of the district’s English as a New Language Program, said that type of language acquisition model is part of the work he hopes to achieve at more schools as the district works to have ENL programs at most campuses. In the past, he said, students were taken to a different campus to get language instruction if their schools did not offer the program or had ENL teachers.

    Andrea Bass, one of the ENL teachers at East Side Elementary, said the school staff respects and actively honors their students’ first language and culture. Many of the students are from Guatemala, and their families, who speak Spanish or Mayan dialects, are constantly engaged in their education despite the language barriers, she said.

    When Edens, Bass and other teachers heard their students might have been referred to as a burden, they signed a letter calling the remarks “offensive to those students, their families, and those of us who teach them.”

    “Our students don’t always have a voice and neither do their families,” Bass said. “I felt like it was my duty to speak up for them.”

    That sense of duty comes from seeing how many parents are afraid to speak up or advocate for themselves but nonetheless put a lot of their trust in educators, Bass said.

    Andrea Bass and several other teachers in Hamilton County signed a joint letter to show their love and support of Latino students earlier this year.

    The Latino or Hispanic community in Hamilton County, including Chattanooga, has grown and changed since Clara moved there nearly two decades ago. Yet, the challenges many families face remain the same.

    When Clara left her hometown in central Mexico, she went from working a desk job that required her to wear high heels and suits to factory jobs in Chattanooga, where sneakers and jeans are the norm. A change that was even more demoralizing, she said, would come on her son’s first day at school when she “realized that I had become illiterate.”

    “I could not speak English, I couldn’t have a conversation with my son’s teacher. It was very frustrating,” she said.

    Not much has changed for the increasing number of Latino families in the county, many who relocated from the neighboring state of Georgia after a state law that authorized police to investigate the immigration status and arrest undocumented immigrants went into effect in 2011. But city and school officials have launched initiatives in the past year hoping to address their needs.

    The city created the Office of New Americans last year to connect immigrant and refugee communities with city resources, including translation services and helping them with citizenship and naturalization paperwork.

    “It’s a way to make sure that we are empowering the people who are coming to Chattanooga and empowering our immigrant community to really be able to flourish,” said Esai Navarro, the office’s director.

    Navarro said the key is “emphasizing inclusion versus assimilation.”

    The Howard School launched a

    Meanwhile, the school district opened its International Welcome Center to assist international students with enrollment and connect them with support services. The center has helped 224 families since it opened last year.

    The melting pot of races, languages and cultures that Hamilton County and Chattanooga are seeing is everything Hernandez, the high school student, has known ever since she was born. What some see as a new normal is simply her reality – something she recently wrote about in a poem:

    “My left starred shoulder: red, white, blue”

    “My right striped shoulder: Quetzal white, light blue..”

    “A girl: two countries, one world, growing stronger, forever longer”

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