Tag: Personal Electronics

Qualcomm stock plunges to lowest price in more than two years as magnitude of smartphone shortfall shocks Wall Street

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Wall Street had braced for a bumpy ride as Qualcomm Inc. navigated an oversupplied market for smartphone chips, but the chip maker’s stock still got T-boned Thursday after a disappointing holiday forecast.

Qualcomm
QCOM,
-6.01%
shares fell as much as 9.4% Thursday morning to an intraday low of $101.93, the lowest price for the company’s shares since July 2020. Investors were reacting to executives saying the company had up to 10 weeks of inventory in the channel, and that its record handset sales would be followed up by, at best, a $2 billion shortfall in the current quarter, compared with the Wall Street consensus at the time.

“A weak market, and even a potential inventory correction, was likely not entirely unexpected,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote, while adding that “the magnitude is probably worse than what some might have had in mind (though it is certainly not confined to Qualcomm, with virtually all handset-exposed players showing similar dynamics).”

Rasgon cut his price target on the stock to $140 from $165, while pointing out that executive color suggested that Qualcomm would keep Apple Inc.’s
AAPL,
-3.63%
business through at least the next iPhone cycle, an important note as the iPhone maker seeks to start building its own wireless components.

More than half of the analysts who cover Qualcomm cut their price targets in reaction to the report, according to FactSet tracking. Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse cut his target to $120 from $130 while maintaining an in-line rating; he wrote that while Qualcomm set up for a miss, as it did last quarter, the actual read was much worse than expected.

“While the buyside was clearly set up for a miss, the magnitude for the December Q was clearly a lot worse than expected with revenues/EPS guided 20%/32% below consensus,” Muse said.

Read: More about Qualcomm earnings

“Here, management highlighted demand weakness (CY22 handsets now expected down low double-digits% vs. prior down mid-single digits%; largely Android market and includes premium tier) and elevated channel inventory (now 8-10 weeks oversupply) as the key drivers of weakness,” the Evercore analyst noted.

Of the 32 analysts who cover Qualcomm, 20 have buy-grade ratings and 12 have hold ratings. Of those 32 analysts, 19 cut price targets resulting in an average target price of $153.75, down from a previous $172.71, according to FactSet data.

Qualcomm stock has declined more than 42% so far this year, in line with a 41.2% decline for the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-0.65%,
but well past the 21.1% year-to-date decline for the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-0.50%.

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November 3, 2022

Tim Cook has been an excellent leader for Apple — these numbers prove it

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How good is a company’s chief executive officer at investing your money most efficiently? This is an important question for long-term investors. It may underline the difference between a steady long-term performer and a flash in the pan.

And Apple Inc.
AAPL,
-4.24%
now makes up 7% of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY,
-1.03%,
the first and largest exchange-traded fund (with $360 billion in assets), which tracks the benchmark S&P 500
SPX,
-1.06%.
That’s close to an all-time record, and the iPhone maker has a whopping 14.1% position in the Invesco QQQ Trust
QQQ,
-1.95%,
which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index
NDX,
-1.98%.
Looking at the full Nasdaq Index
COMP,
-1.73%,
which has 3,747 stocks, Apple takes a 13.5% position.

Apple now makes up 7.3% of the S&P 500 by market capitalization, close to the 8% record it set late in September.

FactSet

This is very much an Apple stock market, with the company topping the broad indexes that are weighted by market capitalization. You are likely to be invested in the company indirectly. You also might be feeling Apple’s impact in other ways. Apple’s App Store ecosystem drives more than $600 billion in annual revenue for developers.

Tim Cook’s tenure as Apple’s CEO has been nothing short of breathtaking when measured by the company’s financial performance. Apple is not one of the fastest-growing companies when measured by sales or earnings — it is too big for that. But its excellent stock performance has reflected Cook’s ability to deploy invested capital with improving efficiency. Cook has also been a market trendsetter in other important ways. He has Apple repurchasing $90 billion of its shares annually, setting the pace for stock buybacks in the market. Cook’s steady hand has also helped Apple withstand the market’s tech wreck and remain a stable pillar for the teetering Nasdaq Composite index generally. For all these reasons, Cook has earned a spot on the MarketWatch 50 list of the most influential people in markets.

Apple keeps improving by this important measure

Investors in the stock market are looking for growth over the long term. The best measure of that is whether or not a company’s share price goes up or down. But Cook isn’t just managing Apple’s stock. Digging a bit deeper into the company’s actual operating performance can provide some insight into what a good job Cook has done.

What should a corporate manager focus on? The stock price? How about the most efficient and most profitable way to provide goods and services? There are different ways to do this, and Apple has focused on quality, reliability and excellent service to build customer loyalty.

Apple’s commitment can be experienced by anyone who calls the company for customer service. It is easy to get through to a well-trained representative who will solve your problem. How many companies can say that at a time when it seems many companies cannot even handle answering the phone?

Getting back to actual performance, Cook took over as Apple’s CEO in August 2011 when Steve Jobs stepped down. The chart below shows the company’s quarterly returns on invested capital from the end of 2010 through September 2022.

Apple’s returns on invested capital have increased markedly over the past six years.

FactSet

A company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) is its profit divided by the sum of the carrying value of its common stock, preferred stock, long-term debt and capitalized lease obligations. ROIC indicates how well a company has made use of the money it has raised to run its business. It is an annualized figure, but available quarterly, as used in the chart above.

The carrying value of a company’s stock may be a lot lower than its current market capitalization. The company may have issued most of its shares long ago at a much lower share price than the current one. If a company has issued shares recently or at relatively high prices, its ROIC will be lower.

A company with a high ROIC is likely either to have a relatively low level of long-term debt or to have made efficient use of the borrowed money.

Among companies in the S&P 500 that have been around for at least 10 years, Apple placed within the top 20 for average ROIC for the previous 40 reported fiscal quarters as of Sept. 1.

As you can see on the chart, Apple’s ROIC has improved dramatically over the past five years, even as the wide adoption of the company’s products and services has led to an overall slowdown in sales growth.

A quick comparison with other giants in the benchmark index

It might be interesting to see how Apple stacks up among other large companies, in part because some businesses are more capital-intensive than others. For example, over the past four quarters, Apple’s ROIC has averaged 52.9%, while the average for the S&P 500 has been a weighted 12.1%, by FactSet’s estimate.

Here are the 10 companies in the S&P 500 reporting the highest annual sales for their most recent full fiscal years, with a comparison of average ROIC over the past 40 reported quarters:

Company	Ticker	Annual sales ($mil)	Avg. ROIC – 40 quarters	Total Return – 10 Years
Walmart Inc.	WMT, -0.02%	$572,754	11.0%	142%
Amazon.com Inc.	AMZN, -3.06%	$469,822	6.8%	693%
Apple Inc.	AAPL, -4.24%	$394,328	33.0%	721%
CVS Health Corp.	CVS, +1.03%	$291,935	6.8%	161%
UnitedHealth Group Inc.	UNH, +0.03%	$287,597	13.7%	1,031%
Exxon Mobil Corp.	XOM, +1.36%	$280,510	9.9%	85%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B	BRK.B, -1.94%	$276,094	8.2%	233%
McKesson Corp.	MKC, -0.61%	$263,966	6.6%	353%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	GOOGL, -4.07%	$257,488	16.6%	405%
Costco Wholesale Corp.	COST, +0.57%	$226,954	16.2%	558%
Source: FactSet

Among the largest 10 companies in the S&P 500 by annual sales, Apple takes the top ranking for average ROIC over the past 10 years, while ranking second for total return behind UnitedHealth Group Inc.
UNH,
+0.03%
and ahead of Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
-3.06%.
UnitedHealth has been able to remain at the forefront of managed care during the period of transition for healthcare in the U.S., in the wake of President Barack Obama’s signing of the Affordable Care Act into law in 2010.

Here’s a chart showing 10-year total returns for Apple, UnitedHealth Group, Amazon and the S&P 500:

Apple is only slightly ahead of Amazon’s 10-year total return. But what is so striking about this chart is the volatility. Apple has had a smoother ride. During the bear market of 2022, Apple’s stock has declined 18%, while the S&P 500 has gone down 20%, the Nasdaq has fallen 32% (all with dividends reinvested) and Amazon has dropped 45%.

The broad indexes would have fared even worse so far this year without Apple.

TO SEE THE FULL MARKETWATCH 50 LIST CLICK HERE

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November 3, 2022

Qualcomm stock drops more than 7% after poor outlook, months-long chip glut

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Qualcomm Inc. shares fell in the extended session Wednesday following the chip maker’s poor outlook, and estimates of about two months or more of inventory it needs to clear in its core business.

Qualcomm
QCOM,
-4.12%
shares dropped 7.6% after hours, following a 4.1% decline to close at $112.50 in the regular session. In late July, the San Diego-based chip maker cut its forecast because of weakness in the smartphone market that had yet to creep into the premium handset market.

On the call with analysts, Chief Executive Cristiano Amon said the accelerated weak demand was related to “macro economic headwinds and the prolonged COVID in China,” and “the rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraints” across the chip industry.” would take out about 80 cents a share in first-quarter earnings.

“It’s the major factor,” Amon told analysts on the call. “It’s mostly a handset consumer story.” Earnings for the first quarter, as a results, would take a hit of 80 cents a share, the company said.

Another big factor is that companies are just spending less. Amon said “companies across the board had much higher inventory policies, supply chain got resolved, and you got that macro economic uncertainty, you have a drawdown trying to bring inventory to a different level than it was during the situation of demand constraint.”

Qualcomm forecast first-quarter earnings of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion to $10 billion, while the Street estimated $3.43 a share on revenue of $12.02 billion.

Read: Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala told analysts there is about eight to 10 weeks of elevated in the channel. In the meantime, Qualcomm was instituting a hiring freeze, and looking into cost-saving measures, execs told analysts.

While handset-chip sales surged 40% to a record $6.57 billion from a year ago, topping the Street’s expectation of $6.55 billion, the company’s forecast indicates a big glut in inventory in Qualcomm’s CDMA Technologies unit, the one that includes handset and RF chips as well as chips for autos and Internet of Things.

Qualcomm expects QCT sales of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion, and sales from Qualcomm’s technology licensing, or QTL, segment of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion. Analysts had forecast forecast $10.42 billion in QCT sales and QTL revenue of $1.71 billion.

Qualcomm reported fourth-quarter QCT revenue of $9.9 billion, a 28% gain from a year ago. Analysts had estimated $9.84 billion, based on the company’s forecast of $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion.

Fourth-quarter auto-chip sales zoomed up 58% to a record $427 million, and Internet of Things, or IoT, sales rose 24% to a record $1.92 billion. The Street was expecting auto sales of $362.4 million, and IoT sales of $1.82 billion.

Revenue from the QTL segment fell 8% to $1.44 billion compared with Wall Street estimates of $1.58 billion, based on a company forecast of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion.

Read about: Intel’s quarterly results, AMD’s quarterly results

The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $2.87 billion, or $2.54 a share, compared with $2.8 billion, or $2.45 a share, in the year-ago period. The chip maker reported adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, of $3.13 a share, compared with $2.55 a share in the year-ago period. Total revenue for the third quarter rose to $11.4 billion from $9.34 billion in the year-ago period.

Analysts had estimated earnings of $3.13 a share on revenue of $11.32 billion, based on Qualcomm’s forecast of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $11 billion to $11.8 billion.

Year to date, Qualcomm shares are down 38%, compared with a 41% decline for the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-3.09%,
a 21% decline by the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-2.50%
and a 33% drop by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-3.36%.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
-1.73%
outperformed the broader market Wednesday after the chip maker said it would clear excess inventory by the end of the year, and forecast that data-center and embedded product sales would continue to rise.

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November 2, 2022
Qualcomm stock drops more than 7% after poor outlook, months-long chip glut

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Qualcomm Inc. shares fell in the extended session Wednesday following the chip maker’s poor outlook, and estimates of about two months or more of inventory it needs to clear in its core business.

Qualcomm
QCOM,
-4.12%
shares dropped 7.6% after hours, following a 4.1% decline to close at $112.50 in the regular session. In late July, the San Diego-based chip maker cut its forecast because of weakness in the smartphone market that had yet to creep into the premium handset market.

On the call with analysts, Chief Executive Cristiano Amon said the accelerated weak demand was related to “macro economic headwinds and the prolonged COVID in China,” and “the rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraints” across the chip industry.” would take out about 80 cents a share in first-quarter earnings.

“It’s the major factor,” Amon told analysts on the call. “It’s mostly a handset consumer story.” Earnings for the first quarter, as a results, would take a hit of 80 cents a share, the company said.

Another big factor is that companies are just spending less. Amon said “companies across the board had much higher inventory policies, supply chain got resolved, and you got that macro economic uncertainty, you have a drawdown trying to bring inventory to a different level than it was during the situation of demand constraint.”

Qualcomm forecast first-quarter earnings of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion to $10 billion, while the Street estimated $3.43 a share on revenue of $12.02 billion.

Read: Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala told analysts there is about eight to 10 weeks of elevated in the channel. In the meantime, Qualcomm was instituting a hiring freeze, and looking into cost-saving measures, execs told analysts.

While handset-chip sales surged 40% to a record $6.57 billion from a year ago, topping the Street’s expectation of $6.55 billion, the company’s forecast indicates a big glut in inventory in Qualcomm’s CDMA Technologies unit, the one that includes handset and RF chips as well as chips for autos and Internet of Things.

Qualcomm expects QCT sales of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion, and sales from Qualcomm’s technology licensing, or QTL, segment of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion. Analysts had forecast forecast $10.42 billion in QCT sales and QTL revenue of $1.71 billion.

Qualcomm reported fourth-quarter QCT revenue of $9.9 billion, a 28% gain from a year ago. Analysts had estimated $9.84 billion, based on the company’s forecast of $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion.

Fourth-quarter auto-chip sales zoomed up 58% to a record $427 million, and Internet of Things, or IoT, sales rose 24% to a record $1.92 billion. The Street was expecting auto sales of $362.4 million, and IoT sales of $1.82 billion.

Revenue from the QTL segment fell 8% to $1.44 billion compared with Wall Street estimates of $1.58 billion, based on a company forecast of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion.

Read about: Intel’s quarterly results, AMD’s quarterly results

The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $2.87 billion, or $2.54 a share, compared with $2.8 billion, or $2.45 a share, in the year-ago period. The chip maker reported adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, of $3.13 a share, compared with $2.55 a share in the year-ago period. Total revenue for the third quarter rose to $11.4 billion from $9.34 billion in the year-ago period.

Analysts had estimated earnings of $3.13 a share on revenue of $11.32 billion, based on Qualcomm’s forecast of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $11 billion to $11.8 billion.

Year to date, Qualcomm shares are down 38%, compared with a 41% decline for the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-3.09%,
a 21% decline by the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-2.50%
and a 33% drop by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-3.36%.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
-1.73%
outperformed the broader market Wednesday after the chip maker said it would clear excess inventory by the end of the year, and forecast that data-center and embedded product sales would continue to rise.

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November 2, 2022
Apple stock surges toward best day since 2020 as it’s dubbed rare ‘bright spot’ amid Big Tech ‘carnage’

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Which Big Tech company is not like the others?

Apparently it’s Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+7.56%,
which is set to become the only mega-cap technology company not to see a sharp post-earnings decline in its stock price this week, after the smartphone giant delivered a somewhat mixed earnings report but seemed to reassure Wall Street just enough about the state of its demand.

Read: Apple earnings beat as record back-to-school Mac sales outweigh a slight miss on iPhones

The stock was up 7.6% in Friday morning trading and on track to log its largest single-day percentage gain since July 31, 2020, when it increased 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Apple is “the bright spot amid mega-cap carnage,” wrote Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers, as Apple topped expectations with its headline results despite the backdrop of “a lot of macro/geopolitical uncertainties” as well as foreign-exchange pressures.

While Apple fell short with its iPhone sales numbers for the September quarter, Rakers noted that the company has been constrained by supply for its Pro models. At the same time, he noted that Mac revenue easily exceeded the consensus view, which supported his thesis that “Apple is solidly positioned as share taker in PCs.”

He further pointed out that Apple results were burdened by a deeper-than-expected impact from foreign exchange. But “look past the FX headwinds & you’ll see why everyone is hiding in Apple,” he said.

Rakers rates the stock at overweight with a $185 price target.

Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani called Apple “the last FAANG standing.”

“Overall, revenue and EPS estimates will shift higher from current levels and given the broadly disappointing EPS calls from big tech this was an impressive set of numbers and guide,” he wrote in his note to clients.

Though Apple didn’t give formal financial guidance, it offered various pieces of commentary around the December quarter, including that it could see a 10-point headwind from foreign exchange in the period and recognize a “few hundred” basis points of impact from an extra week being added to the quarter, even as Mac revenue is set for a substantial decline.

“All this results in our assessment that revenue growth will be mid-single digits (our model is at 5% vs. Street was at 2%),” Daryanani wrote.

Admittedly, it’s not just about the December quarter, he noted.

“Eventually the question will be on durability of demand beyond Dec-qtr and the impact from macro not just on iPhones but also services,” Daryanani wrote, though he likes Apple’s long-term potential to grow sales at a mid- or high-single-digit clip and grow earnings at a mid- to low-teens rate.

He rates the stock at outperform with a $190 target.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote that Apple was “the one bright spot” amid “a horror show week for Big Tech earnings.”

“Given the perfect storm of currency/macro this quarter, we would characterize Apple’s results and commentary around the December quarter as net bullish around underlying demand and help throw out the noise that iPhone 14 upgrades are slowing in this cycle,” he wrote, while keeping an outperform rating but cutting his price target to $200 from $220 to reflect a lower multiple.

The latest results could help change what Citi Research analyst Jim Suva said was a relatively negative attitude towards Apple’s stock when compared to the rest of Big Tech.

“The amount of investor negativity on mega-cap tech stocks, especially Apple, is well known as recent surveys show Apple as the least favored stock amongst its peers,” he wrote. “Yes there are valid concerns of electronic retailers working down inventory and consumers having less disposable income given inflation but we believe consumers will adjust their spending allocations and continue to spend on Apple’s growing platform of products and services.”

He rates the stock a buy with a $175 price target, down from $185 before.

Barclays analyst Tim Long stayed more cautious.

“Stepping back from the print, things get tougher heading into Dec-Q and beyond and we maintain our [equal-weight] rating, mainly on headwinds sustaining current demand levels as high-end consumers potentially weaken, tougher comps on Mac, Services weakening further, regulatory overhang (App Store, Google TAC), macro impacting digital advertising as well as a rich valuation,” he wrote as he bumped his price target up by a dollar to $156.

Whether that plays out in the shares is another question.

“Near term, we expect heightened macro uncertainty to remain an overhang for the stock, although some may view AAPL as a relative safe haven in the macro storm,” Long continued.

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October 28, 2022
Apple stock surges toward best day since 2020 as it’s dubbed rare ‘bright spot’ amid Big Tech ‘carnage’

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Which Big Tech company is not like the others?

Apparently it’s Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+7.56%,
which is set to become the only mega-cap technology company not to see a sharp post-earnings decline in its stock price this week, after the smartphone giant delivered a somewhat mixed earnings report but seemed to reassure Wall Street just enough about the state of its demand.

Read: Apple earnings beat as record back-to-school Mac sales outweigh a slight miss on iPhones

The stock was up 7.6% in Friday morning trading and on track to log its largest single-day percentage gain since July 31, 2020, when it increased 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Apple is “the bright spot amid mega-cap carnage,” wrote Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers, as Apple topped expectations with its headline results despite the backdrop of “a lot of macro/geopolitical uncertainties” as well as foreign-exchange pressures.

While Apple fell short with its iPhone sales numbers for the September quarter, Rakers noted that the company has been constrained by supply for its Pro models. At the same time, he noted that Mac revenue easily exceeded the consensus view, which supported his thesis that “Apple is solidly positioned as share taker in PCs.”

He further pointed out that Apple results were burdened by a deeper-than-expected impact from foreign exchange. But “look past the FX headwinds & you’ll see why everyone is hiding in Apple,” he said.

Rakers rates the stock at overweight with a $185 price target.

Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani called Apple “the last FAANG standing.”

“Overall, revenue and EPS estimates will shift higher from current levels and given the broadly disappointing EPS calls from big tech this was an impressive set of numbers and guide,” he wrote in his note to clients.

Though Apple didn’t give formal financial guidance, it offered various pieces of commentary around the December quarter, including that it could see a 10-point headwind from foreign exchange in the period and recognize a “few hundred” basis points of impact from an extra week being added to the quarter, even as Mac revenue is set for a substantial decline.

“All this results in our assessment that revenue growth will be mid-single digits (our model is at 5% vs. Street was at 2%),” Daryanani wrote.

Admittedly, it’s not just about the December quarter, he noted.

“Eventually the question will be on durability of demand beyond Dec-qtr and the impact from macro not just on iPhones but also services,” Daryanani wrote, though he likes Apple’s long-term potential to grow sales at a mid- or high-single-digit clip and grow earnings at a mid- to low-teens rate.

He rates the stock at outperform with a $190 target.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote that Apple was “the one bright spot” amid “a horror show week for Big Tech earnings.”

“Given the perfect storm of currency/macro this quarter, we would characterize Apple’s results and commentary around the December quarter as net bullish around underlying demand and help throw out the noise that iPhone 14 upgrades are slowing in this cycle,” he wrote, while keeping an outperform rating but cutting his price target to $200 from $220 to reflect a lower multiple.

The latest results could help change what Citi Research analyst Jim Suva said was a relatively negative attitude towards Apple’s stock when compared to the rest of Big Tech.

“The amount of investor negativity on mega-cap tech stocks, especially Apple, is well known as recent surveys show Apple as the least favored stock amongst its peers,” he wrote. “Yes there are valid concerns of electronic retailers working down inventory and consumers having less disposable income given inflation but we believe consumers will adjust their spending allocations and continue to spend on Apple’s growing platform of products and services.”

He rates the stock a buy with a $175 price target, down from $185 before.

Barclays analyst Tim Long stayed more cautious.

“Stepping back from the print, things get tougher heading into Dec-Q and beyond and we maintain our [equal-weight] rating, mainly on headwinds sustaining current demand levels as high-end consumers potentially weaken, tougher comps on Mac, Services weakening further, regulatory overhang (App Store, Google TAC), macro impacting digital advertising as well as a rich valuation,” he wrote as he bumped his price target up by a dollar to $156.

Whether that plays out in the shares is another question.

“Near term, we expect heightened macro uncertainty to remain an overhang for the stock, although some may view AAPL as a relative safe haven in the macro storm,” Long continued.

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October 28, 2022
Apple earnings beat as record back-to-school Mac sales outweigh a slight miss on iPhones

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At the end of a woeful week for Big Tech earnings, Apple Inc. managed to top expectations on revenue and earnings with the help of Macs selling at a record pace during the back-to-school season, which outweighed a slight miss on iPhone sales.

Apple
AAPL,
-3.05%
shares bounced between slight gains and losses in after-hours action Thursday, even as executives projected that revenue growth could slow in the holiday quarter. As has been the case throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Apple executives declined to offer a traditional financial forecast, but Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri told investors on a conference call that they expect a sequential slowdown in growth during the December quarter, driven in part by sharp currency impacts, tough comparisons for the Mac business and pressures on the services business.

The smartphone giant’s revenue grew 8% in its fiscal fourth quarter, to $90.1 billion from $83.4 billion a year earlier, and came in ahead of the FactSet consensus of $88.7 billion. Apple generated $42.6 billion in its biggest business, iPhone sales, up from $38.9 billion a year before, but analysts were projecting $43.0 billion.

A big driver of the upside came from Apple’s
AAPL,
-3.05%
Mac segment, which posted a massive beat even as iPhone sales came up light. The Mac business set an all-time quarterly revenue record at $11.5 billion in the back-to-school quarter, up from $9.2 billion a year before and easily above the FactSet consensus, which called for $9.3 billion.

Chief Executive Tim Cook explained on the call that the Mac category benefited from the launch of the MacBook Air with Apple’s custom M2 chip, as well as easing supply constraints that allowed Apple to meet a prior demand backlog. Maestri said he expects that Mac revenue will “decline substantially” on a year-over-year basis in the December quarter, however, as that period faces tough comparisons.

A key question coming into Apple’s report was how demand for the company’s new iPhone 14 line has held up, especially given reports that the company has scaled back earlier production goals. Cook shared that while it was still early, “consumer demand was strong and better than we anticipated that it would be.”

The company is supply-constrained on the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models, Cook said, adding that it is difficult for the company to “determine the accurate mix” of its phones until it is able to fulfill all of its demand.

Revenue performance across Apple’s product lines was mixed. While Mac sales were strong, iPad revenue fell to $7.2 billion from $8.3 billion, whereas analysts were modeling $7.8 billion in iPad revenue. That category saw “opposite” trends relative to the Mac business in that iPads were up against an “exceptionally strong iPad quarter” from a year before that included a product launch.

The company raked in $9.7 billion in revenue across its wearables, home and accessories category, up from $8.8 billion in the same period a year ago. Analysts had expected revenue of $9.2 billion.

Services revenue climbed to $19.2 billion from $18.3 billion but fell short of the FactSet consensus, which was for $20.0 billion. Maestri shared that while he expects the segment to grow in the December quarter, the business could be impacted by pressures on advertising and gaming, as well as foreign-exchange effects.

For the latest quarter, Apple recorded net income of $20.7 billion, or $1.29 a share, compared with $20.6 billion, or $1.24 a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts tracked by FactSet were expecting $1.27 a share in earnings.

If Apple’s stock managed to hold gains through Friday’s close, it would likely be the only Big Tech company to see positive post-earnings stock performance this week. Shares of Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
-1.98%,
Alphabet Inc.
GOOG,
-2.34%

GOOGL,
-2.85%,
and Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
-24.56%
each posted sharp declines in the session after their respective reports, and Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
-4.06%
shares were off 12% in late trading Thursday.

Shares of Apple have lost 18% so far this year, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.61%
— which counts Apple as one of its 30 components — has declined 12%.

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October 27, 2022
Apple earnings show iPhone sales miss amid questions about smartphone demand; stock dips

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Apple Inc. joined the chorus of Big Tech woes Thursday, falling short of expectations on quarterly iPhone sales and sending its stock lower in late trading.

The smartphone giant delivered $90.1 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, up from $83.4 billion a year earlier and ahead of the FactSet consensus, which was for $88.7 billion. A big driver of the upside came from Apple’s
AAPL,
-3.05%
Mac business, which posted a massive beat even as iPhone sales came up light.

Apple generated $42.6 billion in iPhone sales during its latest quarter, up from $38.9 billion a year before, while analysts were projecting $43.0 billion.

The stock was down 1% to 4% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the report Thursday.

As has been the case throughout the pandemic, Apple declined to offer a financial forecast in its release, so investors will need wait for the company’s earnings call to get a sense for how things have fared since the September quarter ended and what expectations are like going into the holiday period.

A key question coming into Apple’s report was how demand for the company’s new iPhone 14 line has held up, especially given reports that the company has scaled back earlier production goals. While the company isn’t likely to offer a traditional quantitative outlook on the call, executives could give some indication of how consumer behavior has played out recently amid the backdrop of economic pressure and more incremental upgrades within the newest family of iPhones.

For the latest quarter, Apple recorded net income of $20.7 billion, or $1.29 a share, compared with $20.6 billion, or $1.24 a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts tracked by FactSet were expecting $1.27 a share in earnings.

Revenue performance across Apple’s product lines was mixed. The company saw $11.5 billion in Mac revenue, up from $9.2 billion a year prior, along with $7.2 billion in iPad revenue, down from $8.3 billion. Analysts tracked by FactSet were modeling $9.3 billion for the Mac line and $7.8 billion in iPad revenue.

The company raked in $9.7 billion in revenue across its wearables, home and accessories category, up from $8.8 billion in the same period a year ago. Analysts had expected revenue of $9.2 billion.

Services revenue climbed to $19.2 billion from $18.3 billion but fell short of the FactSet consensus, which was for $20.0 billion.

Shares of Apple have lost 18% so far this year, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.61%
— which counts Apple as one of its 30 components — has declined 12%.

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October 27, 2022

These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

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This may surprise you: Wall Street analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 8% during 2023, despite all the buzz about a possible recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to quell inflation.

Ken Laudan, a portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management in Mission, Kan., isn’t buying it. He expects an “earnings recession” for the S&P 500
SPX,
+2.78%
— that is, a decline in profits of around 10%. But he also expects that decline to set up a bottom for the stock market.

Laudan’s predictions for the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and bottom

Laudan, who manages the $83 million Buffalo Large Cap Fund
BUFEX,
-2.86%
and co-manages the $905 million Buffalo Discovery Fund
BUFTX,
-2.82%,
said during an interview: “It is not unusual to see a 20% hit [to earnings] in a modest recession. Margins have peaked.”

The consensus among analysts polled by FactSet is for weighted aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 to total $238.23 a share in 2023, which would be an 8% increase from the current 2022 EPS estimate of $220.63.

Laudan said his base case for 2023 is for earnings of about $195 to $200 a share and for that decline in earnings (about 9% to 12% from the current consensus estimate for 2022) to be “coupled with an economic recession of some sort.”

He expects the Wall Street estimates to come down, and said that “once Street estimates get to $205 or $210, I think stocks will take off.”

He went further, saying “things get really interesting at 3200 or 3300 on the S&P.” The S&P 500 closed at 3583.07 on Oct. 14, a decline of 24.8% for 2022, excluding dividends.

Laudan said the Buffalo Large Cap Fund was about 7% in cash, as he was keeping some powder dry for stock purchases at lower prices, adding that he has been “fairly defensive” since October 2021 and was continuing to focus on “steady dividend-paying companies with strong balance sheets.”

Leaders for the stock market’s recovery

After the market hits bottom, Laudan expects a recovery for stocks to begin next year, as “valuations will discount and respond more quickly than the earnings will.”

He expects “long-duration technology growth stocks” to lead the rally, because “they got hit first.” When asked if Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
+6.14%
and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
+3.69%
were good examples, in light of the broad decline for semiconductor stocks and because both are held by the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, Laudan said: “They led us down and they will bounce first.”

Laudan said his “largest tech holding” is ASML Holding N.V.
ASML,
+3.79%,
which provides equipment and systems used to fabricate computer chips.

Among the largest tech-oriented companies, the Buffalo Large Cap fund also holds shares of Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+3.09%,
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
+3.88%,
Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
+6.63%
and Alphabet Inc.
GOOG,
+3.91%

GOOGL,
+3.73%.

Laudan also said he had been “overweight’ in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
UNH,
+1.77%,
Danaher Corp.
DHR,
+2.64%
and Linde PLC
LIN,
+2.25%
recently and had taken advantage of the decline in Adobe Inc.’s
ADBE,
+2.32%
price following the announcement of its $20 billion acquisition of Figma, by scooping up more shares.

Summarizing the declines

To illustrate what a brutal year it has been for semiconductor stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF
SOXX,
+2.12%,
which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
+2.29%
of 30 U.S.-listed chip makers and related equipment manufacturers, has dropped 44% this year. Then again, SOXX had risen 38% over the past three years and 81% for five years, underlining the importance of long-term thinking for stock investors, even during this terrible bear market for this particular tech space.

Here’s a summary of changes in stock prices (again, excluding dividends) and forward price-to-forward-earnings valuations during 2022 through Oct. 14 for every stock mentioned in this article. The stocks are sorted alphabetically:

Company	Ticker	2022 price change	Forward P/E	Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021
Apple Inc.	AAPL, +3.09%	-22%	22.2	30.2
Adobe Inc.	ADBE, +2.32%	-49%	19.4	40.5
Amazon.com Inc.	AMZN, +6.63%	-36%	62.1	64.9
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	AMD, +3.69%	-61%	14.7	43.1
ASML Holding N.V. ADR	ASML, +3.79%	-52%	22.7	41.2
Danaher Corp.	DHR, +2.64%	-23%	24.3	32.1
Alphabet Inc. Class C	GOOG, +3.91%	-33%	17.5	25.3
Linde PLC	LIN, +2.25%	-21%	22.2	29.6
Microsoft Corp.	MSFT, +3.88%	-32%	22.5	34.0
Nvidia Corp.	NVDA, +6.14%	-62%	28.9	58.0
UnitedHealth Group Inc.	UNH, +1.77%	2%	21.5	23.2
Source: FactSet

You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 declined to 16.9 as of the close on Oct. 14 from 24.5 at the end of 2021, while the forward P/E for SOXX declined to 13.2 from 27.1.

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