This is an opinion editorial by Obi Nwosu, CEO of Fedi and a board member for ₿trust.
In 2020, I predicted that Bitcoin would face attacks during the 2018 to 2023 period but would ultimately emerge successful by the end of it. Although I am not a prophet, it was clear to me that this would be a critical time for Bitcoin. When the bear market hit this year, we saw a “cleansing” of the Bitcoin ecosystem and an opportunity to refocus on its main mission of monetary freedom.
The snowball started in the heat of July with the Celsius bankruptcy, which was the first sign that the ecosystem we were building was not healthy. The fact that we were using a decentralized currency to mirror the centralized financial system did not match the vision for Bitcoin.
This once again highlighted the existence of two alternate and diverging realities for Bitcoin: “real” Bitcoin, which is rising from the bottom up and focuses on the value Bitcoin can bring to the world, and “regulated” Bitcoin, which is focused on price and committed to regulatory systems and adoption through speculation.
I sold Coinfloor in 2021 because I realized that exchanges like ours were too often dedicated to keeping their users trapped in regulated Bitcoin land. As we near the end of 2022, the negative effects of this have been painfully demonstrated by the collapse of FTX, the regulatory fallout and the losses incurred by so many innocent people.
On the other hand, real Bitcoin is flourishing in the Global South and post-Soviet regions, where innovation is addressing the narrative that Bitcoin has no good use cases. For instance, a new version of frontier towns is emerging, combining renewable energy, Bitcoin mining, internet connectivity and community custody. As I have long suspected, real Bitcoin adoption can only come from the people, and Fedimint and Fedi seek to be key in achieving hyperbitcoinization. The world will experience the most primitive form of protection — humans united — translated and turbocharged through the highest technology.
In the coming years, communities will play a crucial role in defining the path for Bitcoin. Bitcoiners are already empowering communities around the globe, but it is vital that our global community also stays united to win this battle. As I predicted in my 2020 post, we will certainly succeed in this endeavor and so I am more convinced than ever that Bitcoin will win in 2023.
This is a guest post by Obi Nwosu. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Elon Musk has been trying this week to defend Tesla’s abysmal stock performance in 2022. The electric vehicle giant has seen its stock plummet by 61% this year, making it the 11th-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2022.
“As bank savings account interest rates, which are guaranteed, start to approach stock market returns, which are *not* guaranteed, people will increasingly move their money out of stocks into cash, thus causing stocks to drop,” Musk tweeted.
You might expect that Tesla’s stock drop has wiped out more investor wealth than any other stock in the world this year. But you would be wrong.
If we look at declines in market capitalization — the value of companies’ common-shares outstanding — Tesla TSLA, -1.76%
has been the fourth worst-performing stock in the benchmark S&P 500 this year, as of 1 p.m. ET on Dec. 21:
On a percentage basis, all these stocks have performed worse than the full S&P 500, which has fallen 19%, excluding dividends.
Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, +1.74%
has erased more shareholder wealth than any other publicly traded company in 2022. In total, investors in Amazon have lost $804.6 billion this year. The stock is down 48% in 2022.
Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.28%
and Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +0.23%
have also suffered larger market-cap declines than Tesla, by virtue of their sheer size.
The companies have different fiscal and annual period ends, but if we look at data for the past three reported quarters and compare to the same period a year earlier, here’s how the four stack up:
Company
Ticker
Change in sales for three quarters from year-earlier period
Change in EPS for three quarters from year-earlier period
Amazon showed a net loss of $3 billion for the first three quarters of 2022 as the company neared the end of its extraordinary multiyear effort to build out its warehouse and fulfillment infrastructure. For the first three quarters of 2021, the company booked $19 billion in profits. When announcing Amazon’s third-quarter results CEO Andy Jassy said the company was working methodically toward “a stronger cost structure for the business moving forward.”
The incredible growth of Amazon’s cloud business has stalled and disappointed the expectations the company had nurtured on Wall Street. The Amazon Web Services business is facing increasing competition from the likes of Microsoft and its customers are pulling back. Meanwhile, retail sales have also come in weak going into the Christmas and holiday season.
Amazon’s stock has declined 22% since it closed at $110.96 on Oct. 27, right before it disappointed investors not only with its third-quarter results, but with its outlook: It expects to break even during the holiday quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet had previously expected a profit of more than $5 billion.
Tesla stands in contrast to Amazon, as you can see on the table above. Its sales grew by 58% during the first three quarters of 2022 from the year-earlier period and its earnings per share rose nearly threefold.
This has been a year of significant declines for shares of giant tech-oriented companies, especially those that had traded at lofty price-to-earnings valuations — that group includes Amazon and Tesla. In fact, these companies have given up all their pandemic era gains int he stock market.
But with Tesla’s results so outstanding through the first three quarters of 2022, it raises the question: How much of the drop in the electric car makers share price was tied to Musk’s actions as CEO of Twitter, which he acquired on Oct. 27 after a monthslong saga? And how much of a relief rally, if any, might there be for Tesla if Musk, as expected, steps down as Twitter CEO?
How about some bottom-feeding?
Here’s the same list of 10 stocks in the S&P 500 that have seen the largest declines in market cap this year, with a summary of analysts’ ratings, consensus price targets and declines in their forward price-to-earnings ratios:
This is an opinion editorial by Ray Youssef, a founder and CEO of Paxful and a founder of the Built With Bitcoin Foundation.
Bitcoin has had a defining year in 2022 and, as I look back, I couldn’t be more excited for 2023. We’re at a turning point. It is clear that Bitcoin is starting to cut the dead weight of speculation. All eyes are on us and it’s our responsibility to educate people and governments about why Bitcoin has real-life use cases that will allow money to flow freely and include billions more into the global economy. I’m ready to onboard the next billion Bitcoiners.
Here are my 2022 takeaways and predictions for 2023:
The Global South Will Continue To Lead Bitcoin Adoption
This trip reenergized my hope for the future. Even in a bear market, trade volume in Africa continues to press forward. Looking at our volume on Paxful, we predict further increases in both Ghana and Nigeria for 2023. Why? We’re still seeing growth in Africa because of the necessity for Bitcoin on the continent — it offers a cheaper and more efficient solution for people to send money back home, make payments and preserve their wealth. And that does not go away because of market conditions. I expect Africa to continue to lead the way heading into the next year.
The Divide Between Bitcoin And The Rest Will Grow
Bitcoin is backed by human work and has proven its utility beyond the West’s obsession with speculation. It has the ability to bank the unbanked and finally shift the tides of economic apartheid — Bitcoin’s impact cannot be overstated. The bulk of “cryptos” are for wild speculation and investing, relying on the morals of these shady authorities.
As we’ve seen with FTX, people’s life savings can be demolished when there is only a single point of failure. This narrative is the same game the banks have been running for centuries. I’m not buying it. Next year, we will see more Bitcoin-only companies and conferences as the Bitcoin community works to clean up the mess of misinformation caused by these bad actors.
Governments Need A Rethink
Smart regulation fosters safety, but poor- or overregulation stifles innovation and growth. We need to strike a balance and that comes with education. My hope for next year is that more Bitcoin companies come together to share why Bitcoin cannot and should not be regulated as you would, for example, stocks or wheat futures.
It’s our responsibility to also advocate for transparency — like requiring companies to share their proof of reserves. Without this, we’re going to see more far-reaching regulation like the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, which pegs more consumer surveillance as the savior and touts Western Union as an example to lead the industry. We know how that narrative will play out…
‘Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins’ Will Get Louder
The trust of the people was tested this year and I don’t blame them for shying away. Life savings were destroyed because of despicable morals and we need to earn back that trust. This is why I advocate for decentralization and for users to self custody their savings.
Using a non-custodial wallet means that users are their own banks, managing their own money and controlling the future of their own finances. In 2023, we’ll see more of a narrative and product push around self custody. I am already doing my part to amplify this message, including sharing a step-by-step process on how to self custody your bitcoin.
Bear Markets Will Build A Stronger Industry
I am a natural builder and I have gone back to my roots this year. I’ve come to realize that we are not building products for how people live their daily lives in the Global South. There is too much focus on the unrealistic dream of minting millionaires and not enough around the pain points that keeps billions of people enclosed in economic apartheid. Next year, you will see more products that cater to the true needs of everyday people and offer them solutions for remittance, payments, e-commerce, wealth preservation and basic communication.
Bitcoiners, 2023 is looking brighter than ever. This is the way!
This is a guest post by Ray Youssef. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
This is an opinion editorial by Frankie Wallace, a freelance writer from the Pacific Northwest.
Medical tourism is on the rise. Every year millions of Americans save between 40-80% in medical fees by crossing the border or taking a short plane ride to receive the care they need. Even after the pandemic slowed international travel, more people looked abroad for shorter wait times, better service, and lower fees.
Bitcoin can boost the medical tourism sector and help patients get the treatment they need at a price that is affordable. Bitcoin can make transactions abroad easier and ensure that everyone gets a fair deal.
Medical Tourism
Medical tourism has a bad reputation. It’s commonly associated with experimental treatments, suspicious surgeons, and concerning cosmetic procedures. However, these issues are largely overplayed and overstated. For millions, medical tourism is a lifeline that helps folks get the treatment they need at a price they can afford.
The CDC defines medical tourism as the practice of traveling to another country for medical care. Common medical tourism destinations include Canada, as well as countries in Central America, South America, and the Caribbean.
The CDC does warn that medical tourism carries risks. Flying shortly after surgery increases the patient’s risk of deep vein thrombosis. Medical tourists may be exposed to bacterial infection due to a lack of immunity and should research any care providers thoroughly before going through with treatment.
People elect to travel abroad for many different treatments. However, medical treatments are particularly popular for treatments that have shorter recovery times like cataract surgery. People who have cataract surgery can usually drive the day after treatment, so negotiating an airport shouldn’t be an issue.
Patients who are considering medical tourism should consult with their primary care provider before moving forward. The primary provider has a complete medical history and will know whether or not a procedure is viable. They’ll also be able to arrange follow-up care when patients arrive home.
Transactions Abroad
Bitcoin transactions may be particularly important in the future, as the U.S. medical economy appears to be set for a black swan event following the pandemic. Trillions of dollars of medical debt have accumulated in the U.S., which may push folks to seek better service and lower costs abroad.
Medical debt is a serious issue in the U.S., though most people can avoid medical debt by researching billing codes and negotiating a payment plan that works for them. This may involve negotiations with partial payments in bitcoin, too.
Bitcoin has the potential to make medical tourism more affordable for all. This can close the care gap, and ensures that everyone has access to high-quality, reliable medical care.
This sentiment is echoed by Renée-Marie Stephano, CEO of Global Healthcare Resources and the Medical Tourism Association. Stephano notes that there has been a “sharp uptick in the utilization of cryptocurrency” to pay for medical treatment abroad.
Decentralized currencies like bitcoin return power to the patient and make it easier for patients to pay for their treatment. Bitcoin can help patients avoid issues with currency conversions and international payments. Bitcoin payments to clinics are fast and come with minimal charges compared with traditional transactions.
Providers who accept bitcoin find that the process is easy and can be quickly converted to national currencies. Ken Fryer, a spokesperson for Vinci Hair Clinic in the United Kingdom, admitted that their clinic had to cancel previous treatments for international patients due to issues with fund transfers and banking restrictions.
Fryer says that Bitcoin solved these issues and gave patients the ability to pay quickly in large sums if needed.
Countries Accepting Bitcoin For Medical Tourism
Medical tourism often occurs in less economically developed countries (LEDC). Bitcoin can help these nations close the wealth inequality gap by encouraging a fair, free-flowing exchange of funds in return for legitimate healthcare services.
Despite the recent downturn in cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin utilization remains high in many countries where medical tourism is popular.
India is a particularly popular destination for medical tourism in Asia. India has a favorable medical visa policy, which allows family members to stay with patients. India also scores highly in Bitcoin adoption and is ranked first in centralized service value received and retail centralized service value received.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has the potential to improve medical tourism and help everyone get the treatment they need. Bitcoin is particularly important in today’s post-pandemic world, where medical bills are spiraling and the U.S. medical sector holds trillions of dollars of debt.
Bitcoin can be particularly useful when traveling to countries with tricky transfer laws. Treatment can be delayed or even canceled if patients aren’t able to pay on time. Bitcoin can negate this issue, and help everyone get a fair deal.
Before paying for medical treatment in Bitcoin, patients should consult with their primary care provider to ensure that they get the treatment they need when they return home.
This is a guest post by Frankie Wallace. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.
TORONTO, Canada, Dec 23 (IPS) – A year that started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is ending with famine in Africa, while still spreading death and misery through an enduring pandemic and a deteriorating climate crisis — 2022 has been an apocalyptic warning of the frailty of our planet and the woeful shortcomings of humankind.
Farhana Haque Rahman
Beyond the stark statistics of millions of people displaced by war and natural disasters, it has been a 12 months that tragically highlighted our global interconnections and how a confluence of events and trends can bring another year of record levels of hunger.
Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians (numbers given by the UN and involved parties vary enormously) have been killed in Ukraine since Russia launched war on February 24. More than 7.8 million Ukrainians have fled the country. Billions of dollars have been spent on armaments.
But the impact of the war has been felt worldwide, driving up prices of basic commodities such as oil, gas, grain, sunflower oil and fertilisers. Somalia, now in the grip of the worst drought to hit the Horn of Africa in 40 years, used to import 90 per cent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
Commodities have been weaponised. Countries slipped back into recession, just as they were slowly recovering from the economic distress of Covid-19 lockdowns. A deepening relationship between sanctioned Russia and an energy- hungry China exacerbated existing tensions with the US over Taiwan. The result? China broke off climate cooperation efforts with the US in the run-up to the COP27 climate conference hosted by Egypt in November with 200 countries and 35,000 people attending.
Against the backdrop of devastating floods in Pakistan and West Africa, and with 2022 on its way to becoming one of the five hottest years on record, agriculture and food security joined the COP27 agenda. Talks ran into extra time, as they tend to, and countries of the global South emerged with the landmark creation of a special fund paid by wealthier countries to address the Loss and Damage caused by climate change in the most vulnerable nations.
“After 30 contentious years, delayed tactics by wealthy countries, a renewed spirit of solidarity, empathy and cooperation prevailed, resulting in the historic establishment of a dedicated fund,” said Yamide Dagnet, director for climate justice at the Open Society Foundations, reflecting a sense of hard fought victory among developing countries.
Still unresolved however is which countries will give money and to whom. China in particular seems uneasy over which category it belongs to. However COP27 joined its 26 forerunners since 1995 in not reaching a binding agreement on cutting fossil fuel burning which has continued to rise globally, except for a brief pandemic dip. For this, many branded it a failure. “Humanity has a choice: cooperate or perish. It is either a Climate Solidarity Pact – or a Collective Suicide Pact,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the opening plenary session. By the end, many felt the conference had concluded with the latter. Rather than falling, the latest estimates from the Global Carbon Project show that total worldwide CO2 emissions in 2022 have reached near-record levels.
Victims of devastating floods, heatwaves and forest fires, and severe drought in Central Sahel and East Africa surely needed no confirmation from the final decision text of COP27 which recognises “the fundamental priority of safeguarding food security and ending hunger” and the vulnerability of food production to climate change.
In this respect, COP27 recognised the importance of nature-based solutions – a theme driven by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in ringing alarm bells on the degraded soil, water sources and eco-systems caused by intensive agriculture with overuse of fertilisers and pesticides.
According to FAO, more than 25 percent of arable soils worldwide are degraded, and the equivalent of a football pitch of soil is eroded every five seconds. The planet’s bio-diversity is being devastated as a result. As highlighted by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) in stressing the vital connections between Nature and people, a landmark report in July found that 50,000 wild species provide food, osmetics, shelter, clothing, medicine and inspiration. Many face extinction.
As international agencies and NGOs (and media outlets) jostled and competed for funding to deal with the fallout from wars and climate emergencies, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) which is active in the Sahel cautioned that only 1.7 per cent of all climate finance reaches small-scale producers in developing countries and as little as 8% of overseas aid goes to projects focused primarily on gender equality. Women’s empowerment has been made a major focus of ASAP+, IFAD’s new climate change financing mechanism.
Women and girls are paying “an unacceptably high price” among communities hit by severe drought in the Horn of Africa, according to the UN Population Fund (UNFPA). It launched a $113.7 million appeal to scale-up life-saving reproductive health and protection services, including establishment of mobile and static clinics in displacement sites.
Also overshadowed by wars and pandemics in 2022 were marginalised communities lacking a voice, suffering diseases such as leprosy or exploited in the form of child labour.
Yohei Sasakawa, WHO Goodwill Ambassador for Leprosy Elimination, says many issues have been sidelined because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Society has the knowledge and means to stop and cure leprosy, he says in the ‘Don’t Forget Leprosy’ campaign by the Sasakawa Leprosy Initiative.
“When people are still being discriminated against even after being cured, society has a disease. If we can cure society of this disease—discrimination—it would be truly epoch-making,” he told IPS.
A similar message was delivered by Nobel Laureate Kailash Satyarthi who told the 5th Global Conference on the Elimination of Child Labour that a mere $53 billion per annum – equivalent to 10 days of military spending – would ensure all children in all countries benefit from social protection.
International Labour Organisation and UNICEF statistics from 2020 show at least 160 million children are involved in child labour, a surge of 8.4 million in four years. Children denied education became a burning issue in Afghanistan in March when the Taliban declared that girls would be banned from secondary education. The UN said 1.1 million girls were affected. The late-night reversal of a decision by Taliban authorities to allow girls from grades 7 to 12 to return to school was met with outrage and distress, inside and outside Afghanistan.
Denial of human rights to girls and women has fuelled the desire of many to get out of Afghanistan and seek a better life elsewhere, adding to the millions around the world forced to flee their homes because of conflict, repression or disaster. The Ukraine conflict has displaced more than 14 million people, about a third of the population.
A UN Office on Drugs and Crime report on trafficking warns that refugees from Ukraine are at risk of including sexual exploitation, forced labour, illegal adoption and surrogacy, forced begging and forced criminality.
As they come over border crossings into Poland, refugees – including victims of rape – are greeted with posters and flyers carrying warnings about jail terms for breaking local abortion laws, images of miscarried foetuses, and a quote from Mother Theresa saying: “Abortion is the greatest threat to peace”.
UNDP, which is assisting the Ukraine government in getting access to public services for IDPs, says in its 2022 report, Turning the tide on internal displacement, that earlier and increased support to development is an essential condition for emerging from crisis in a sustainable way.
“More efforts are needed to end the marginalization of internally displaced people, who must be able to exercise their full rights as citizens including through access to vital services such as health care, education, social protection and job opportunities” said Achim Steiner, UNDP Administrator.
Nearly one million Rohingya refugees languishing in refugee camps in Bangladesh after being driven out of Myanmar in waves since 2016 would surely agree.
Asif Saleh, executive director of BRAC, said to be the world’s largest NGO and founded by Sir Fazle after the independence of Bangladesh in 1972, says work needs to “shift towards a development-like approach from a very short-term umanitarian crisis-focused approach”. But the only solution for the Rohingya refugees is their sustainable and voluntary repatriation to Myanmar. As 2022 closes, that unfortunately looks highly unlikely as the military junta that seized power in 2021 fights ethnic armed organisations on multiple fronts.
There was one seismic milestone event that happened in late 2022 although no one is quite sure exactly where and when. The few people to witness it were not aware either – not that it prevented the UN from declaring it a special day. The birth of the 8 billionth person was celebrated on November 15. The world’s population has doubled from 4 billion in 1974 and UN projections suggest we will be supporting about 9.7 billion people in 2050. Global population is forecast to peak at about 10.4 billion in the 2080s.
Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN environment programme, sent a message to the baby, and the rest of the world, as countries meet in Montreal for the COP15 biodiversity conference this month.
“We’ve just welcomed the 8 billionth member of the human race on this planet. That’s a wonderful birth of a baby, of course. But we need to understand that the more people there are, the more we put the Earth under heavy pressure,” she said.
Farhana Haque Rahman is Senior Vice President of IPS Inter Press Service and Executive Director IPS Noram; she served as the elected Director General of IPS from 2015-2019. A journalist and communications expert, she is a former senior official of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Fund for Agricultural Development.
An emergency Security Council meeting on Ukraine. Credit: UN Photo/Evan Schneider
Opinion by James Paul (new york)
Inter Press Service
The writer is former Executive Director, Global Policy Forum and author of “Of Foxes and Chickens”—Oligarchy and Global Power in the UN Security Council.
NEW YORK, Dec 23 (IPS) – The UN Charter mandates the Security Council to maintain international peace, but wars rage on and nations arm themselves with ever more lethal weapons. No wonder that the Council’s critics are so many and calls for its reform so urgent.
On December 11, 1992, with post-Cold War optimism, the UN General Assembly voted to gather comments from member states on Council reform. Eighty governments made submissions, many sharply critical.
In the thirty years since, there have been endless meetings and initiatives. Year after year, governments, scholars, NGOs, and citizen movements have advanced proposals for Council renovation. In all that time, little progress has been made.
The Council’s five Permanent Members (the P-5) are the heart of the problem. Armed with vetoes, never-ending Council membership, and many other special privileges, they perpetuate their power, protect their global interests and shield their incessant war making.
They shape international law to suit themselves. The United States, the global giant, has by far the most dominant role in the Council. But it is adverse to following the rules itself and rarely inclined towards peaceful conflict solutions. Many ask: should the foxes guard the global chicken coop?
Various powers outside the P-5 want to be elevated to the highest rank. Brazil, India, Japan and Germany have long announced that they want to join the Permanent club. They argue that they would bring fresh ideas to better “represent” world regions and promote world peace.
Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt want to belong to the exclusive club too, bringing (they say) an African voice. But (to use an African metaphor) would these new crocodiles protect the world’s little fish? It seems unlikely!
Other reformers insist on more seats (and longer terms) for the Elected Members of the Council, presently ten in number. Smaller members are very vulnerable to pressure, threats and bribes from the P-5. Further, these lesser countries manage to have only the slightest influence on the Council’s proceedings.
They are, said the exasperated Singapore ambassador, “like short-term commuters on a long-distance passenger train.” So, a simple increase in Elected Members would not be a sure bet.
Limiting the veto or abolishing it entirely would have a very positive result but, needless to say, the P-5 fiercely oppose it. Reformers have also pressed for fairer membership elections and more frequent open public meetings.
Yet (with the exception of cosmetic tweaks) the reform process constantly runs up against P-5 blocking power. Their veto can stop any reform proposal dead in its tracks. But we should not forget that the world is changing and that autocratic power in history never lasts forever!
All reform proposals reflect an idealistic notion that the Council can be changed to restrain the enormous power, appetite and influence of the strongest and richest nations. This idea is rooted in the dream of democratic institutions within nation states, that rich and poor can elect representatives and determine policy in what passes for the general interest.
Difficult as it is at the national level, how could it possibly work in the war-torn world of global politics? Might one day the P-5 Ancien Regime collapse in a great crisis, under desperate pressure from a global citizens’ movement? What would it take to set such a process in motion? It may seem impossible, but so was the French revolution. We can be skeptical, but if we want peace we must press for change.
This is an opinion editorial by Kal Kassa, an Ethiopian Bitcoiner.
2022 was an exciting year for the global Bitcoin community, and particularly African Bitcoiners. With a large population that is much younger than many other continents, the 54 countries of Africa are increasingly primed for Bitcoin with a growing arsenal of educators, advocates and developers.
As we look toward the future of what is possible with sovereign money, especially in the areas of the world that can benefit most, it’s helpful to review some of the news and highlights to come out of Ethiopia, a country that could emerge as one of the leaders in Bitcoin adoption and innovation in the year to come.
Yilak Kidane ran a full Bitcoin node using a Raspberry Pi 4 and live streamed the process from Addis Ababa.
Dr. Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia, encouraged the country’s institutional bankers to research innovative technologies “like cryptocurrencies.” These comments were made at an inaugural celebration for the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia at its headquarters building.
An introductory class titled “Bitcoin 101” was held in Addis Ababa as an effort to increase education and adoption. These classes were inspired by books from Bitcoin-focused authors like Jimmy Song, Andreas Antonopoulos and Saifedean Ammous.
Paco de la India (aka, Run With Bitcoin) traveled to various cities in Ethiopia to spend time with early adopters and bitcoin-accepting merchants. India also held a Bitcoin meetup in Addis Ababa, sharing sats (fractional amounts of bitcoin) with more than a dozen attendees.
Going into 2023, I am full of optimism. Bitcoin is indeed a powerful tool unlike any money the world has seen. And as with any powerful tool, great care and responsibility should be taken. Stay humble, stack sats and have a beautiful new year!
This is a guest post by Kal Kassa. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
This is an opinion editorial by Francois Moreau, a fintech writer and financial risk analyst based out of Paris.
The Fed’s interest rate spikes are spooking the market, and speculative assets like bitcoin are amongst the hardest hit. Although once-touted as a non-correlative asset compared to equity markets, bitcoin’s beta is ultimately well past one as it falls at a rate nearly twice that of the struggling stock market.
But, recently, it appears that the coin is stagnating below $20,000. In this apparent consolidation, some fear that it may simply be butting up against a previous support floor and that any additional bad bitcoin news will cause a further drop.
Some are more confident in the coin.
According to them, this consolidation is a strong sign of a bottom, and the support making bitcoin range-bound is a sign of a strong future. Whether the coin will shoot back up to close to its previous all-time-high of nearly $70,000 remains to be seen – but some are cautiously optimistic.
Gathering Statistics
According to the crypto research giant Kaiko, the volatility of the $201B cryptocurrency market fell below standard market benchmarks. This is a harbinger of solid consolidation, even as a stronger US currency and more attractive fixed-income assets distract investors.
In fact, for some, that bitcoin stability is the best news of the year.
Luno exchange head Vijay Ayyar reinforced the thesis that consolidation is an indicator of future stability or moves upward rather than further crashing, saying that “Bitcoin has largely been range bound between $18-25K for four months now, indicating consolidation and a probable bottoming out pattern, given we are seeing the Dollar Index top out as well.”
Calling the bottom (or the top) is as much art as science, with a healthy dose of luck needed, but Ayyar relies on past trends to make his assessments: “We’ve seen BTC bottom when DXY has topped in the past, as in 2015, so we could be witnessing a very similar pattern again.”
Others in the industry agree; Antoni Trenchev of the lending firm Nexo says that the consolidation and reduced volatility are “strong evidence that the digital assets industry has matured and is becoming less fragmented.”
Has Spring Sprung?
As the rest of the equities market fell by “only” around 20%, bitcoin dropped by a multiple of that, losing nearly $2 trillion in net value and falling by over 50% just this year. It has dropped almost 70% compared to its $68,543 peak in November 2021. This fall was devastating to the class of investors who saw bitcoin as a hedge or means of diversification in a portfolio, as the coin proved substantially correlated with stocks.
As we’ve said, and you’ve undoubtedly heard parroted endlessly since October 2021, that fall is mainly due to the Federal Reserve’s attempts to tamp down inflation. Those attempts have proven to be largely insubstantial thus far, requiring a further rate increase of 75 BPS at a time with no end.
Compounding the correlation issue was that many large institutional crypto bulls built heavily leveraged positions they were then forced to unwind to avoid margin calls, ultimately driving the price down further as the assets were sold for relative scraps.
Some call this nuclear fallout in the crypto sphere, aptly, a crypto winter. Some, like Three Arrows Capital, even lost their entire firm as they unwound too slowly — the firm lost more than $3B of investor money before collapsing.
Going back to Ayyar, the stability indicates an “accumulation period.” That accumulation may indicate a willingness to tentatively return to bitcoin for funds, firms and investors, as the modeling shows the $20,000 range undervalued.
“The fact that bitcoin is trapped in such a range makes it boring, but this is also the point at which retail investors lose interest, and smart money begins to amass,” Ayyar said.
Not only that, but many family offices are expanding their crypto holdings as they, too, seek diversification and increasingly move towards alternative investments for clients. Digital asset management fund president Matteo Dante Perruccio reinforced this trend by pointing to a “counterintuitive spike in demand” from big money and smart money. This could be a move towards diversification or, just as likely, seeking substantial upside as they think the bottom is in.
Bitcoin miners, too, have reduced their crypto sales. As this happens, selling pressure also falls, another harbinger of positive movement in the coin’s future and the mining industry at large. Analysts from Goldman Sachs say that publicly traded bitcoin miners sold around 3,000 bitcoins in September compared to 12,000 in June.
Back to Perruccio: he predicts that the crypto winter will break in Q2 of 2023. “For the market to advance,” he said, “we’ll have seen a lot more failures in the DeFi [decentralized finance] arena and a lot of the smaller firms.”
Even financial service providers haven’t abandoned crypto.
Joining the trend, Mastercard just rolled out options for banks that enable crypto trading alongside traditional accounts. Also, Visa is collaborating with the FTX exchange to bring debit cards to market that direct links to trading accounts and help users ensure cash flow as they speculate, spend, and manage the transition from cash to crypto (and vice versa).
Fed Watch
Head of Crypto Research at the alternative asset management company CoinShares James Butterfill is a bit more cautious, reminding investors that it’s difficult to make too many predictions before more information and data come out. “We err on the side of higher upside possibilities rather than further price declines,” he said.
“The largest fund withdrawals recently have been in short-bitcoin positions, whereas we have seen tiny but consistent inflows into long bitcoin over the last six weeks,” he said to CNBC via email. He later added, “A statement from the Federal Reserve that it intends to ease its aggressive tightening would be the major factor driving uptake of bitcoin.”
The Fed is expected to continue the 75 BPS incremental hikes. Still, some also see a pivot on the horizon back to the days of easy (or easier) money: “Clients are telling us that they will start increasing positions to bitcoin once the Fed pivots, or is close to it,” Butterfill said. “The recent liquidations of net shorts are consistent with what we observe in terms of money flows and suggest that short sellers are starting to give in.”
Conclusion
So what’s the bottom line? Unfortunately, the future is impossible to predict, and we can only manage expectations in line with past trends, data, and our thesis about the coin. For bullish investors, though, the recent reduction in volatility is a good sign indeed – and institutions appear to agree.
Addendum – FTX And Its Dramatic Effect On The Crypto Capital Market
Sometimes you speak too soon, and in the case of Bitcoin’s reduced volatility, unforeseen circumstances are forcing the metaphorical groundhog back into his hole for another extended period of crypto winter.
Midway through the month, the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, previously the third largest and seen as broadly beyond reproach, collapsed in a spectacular mess of financial mismanagement and tabloid-style personal intrigue.
While the latter is undoubtedly good for gossip fodder, the crux of what happened and how it will affect Bitcoin moving forward lay in the former. In short, the appearance of mismanagement led to the uncovering of real abuses as the largest exchange, Binance, announced they’d be closing their positions in FTX’s proprietary coin FTT based on perceived conflicts of interest between FTX and trading firm Alameda. That announcement led to an effective bank run on FTX as thousands of customers pulled or cashed in their coins, triggering a liquidity crisis as FTX failed to deliver on customer withdrawals.
I told you it was complicated, and that’s just scratching the surface. But what matters now is the effect we see on Bitcoin capital markets.
Despite a period of consolidation and accumulation as Bitcoin stayed effectively “flat,” the news of FTX’s collapse and shadow of doubt cast over the crypto arena. After just a week of increasingly concerning information, Bitcoin fell to a two-year low of $15,480, bringing the total market loss for the year to a round $1.5T.
Some look to the FTX collapse as a final nail in the crypto coffin, rounding out stablecoin UST’s loss of stability and widespread failure of former monolithic crypto-focused funds that appeared to bring legitimacy to the markets as a safe(ish) store of value. It’s unclear whether the winter will continue. Still, increased regulations are almost a sure bet as agents from the Securities and Exchange Commission, Department of Justice, and other government giants converge on the scraps of FTX to find out what happened and how to prevent it in the future.
Even the most optimistic Bitcoin bulls see the crypto winter extending through 2023, so it’s best to be prepared to hunker down for another rough ride.
This is a guest post by Francois Moreau. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
This is an opinion editorial by Level39, a researcher focused on Bitcoin, technology, history, ethics and energy.
On December 14, the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs received inaccurate testimony regarding Bitcoin from actor Ben McKenzie and Professor Hillary J. Allen. The hearing, entitled “Crypto Crash: Why the FTX Bubble Burst and Harm to Consumers,” had all the markings of political theater and provided a stage to misinform senators and the public. It coincided with Elizabeth Warren’s new financial surveillance bill, which is a disaster for privacy and civil liberties. On December 18, the Senate Banking Committee Chair Senator Sherrod Brown divulged on “Meet The Press” that the hearing was intended to “educate the public” on the dangers of cryptocurrencies and floated the idea of banning them altogether.
Mr. McKenzie Goes To Washington
Actor Ben McKenzie, who has starred in “The O.C.,” “Gotham” and “Southland,” lacks the qualifications and expertise one would expect for being called before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee to testify on the inner workings of financial technology. It should therefore come as no surprise that he made basic errors in his testimony, and could have been avoided altogether had witnesses with actual expertise been called. According to Mr. McKenzie:
“Bitcoin cannot work as a medium of exchange because it cannot scale. The Bitcoin network can only process 5 to 7 transactions a second. By comparison, Visa can handle tens of thousands. To facilitate that relatively trivial amount of transactions, Bitcoin uses an enormous amount of energy. In 2021, Bitcoin consumed 134 TWh in total, comparable to the electrical energy consumed by the country of Argentina. Bitcoin simply cannot ever work at scale as a medium of exchange.
McKenzie’s testimony leaves one with the impression that he intentionally sought out the most biased and unreliable sources to confirm his own predetermined conclusions. Unfortunately, it was false information.
In technical terms, McKenzie conflated Visa’s transaction network with Bitcoin’s final settlement network, to make the illogical claim that Bitcoin cannot scale. This is a novice mistake. One could use the same faulty logic to make the erroneous claim that millions of retail payments within the banking system should be impossible because banks typically wait until the end of the business day to settle funds with each other. That, of course, is not true, as gross settlement is precisely how high-volume retail payments are batched between banks.
Visa is a credit-based transaction network. It’s not a financial institution, so it does not actually transfer money and cannot perform final settlement like Bitcoin can. Visa is effectively an IT company that informs its member banks how to clear and perform gross settlement with each other during business hours. If you’ve ever waited a few days for a check to clear, you know that payments between two bank accounts are not instantaneous. Credit card transactions take one to three days to post. And 90 to120 days to settle.
The Visa system works well and offers services such as risk assessment, fraud prevention and clawbacks, but can incur high fees from the banks and intermediaries along the way. Member banks aren’t actually sending each other tens of thousands of payments every second. Instead, they batch millions of transactions together into a small number of final settlement payments. The settlements are typically routed through lower-volume real-time gross settlement (RTGS) networks operated by central banks, such as Fedwire in the U.S. or TARGET2 in the EU.
Bitcoin and Fedwire can perform about the same number of transactions per year. In December of 2020, Bitcoin performed 26 million transfers (counting multiple outputs) across 9.6 million transactions, while Fedwire settled 18 million transactions during the same time period. Just as Visa operates on transactional layers that batch transactions into gross settlement layers, Bitcoin is designed to scale in a similar manner.
Bitcoin’s Lightning Network was formally theorized as a scaling solution at MIT in 2016 and today is a burgeoning Layer 2 open payments protocol, layered on top of Bitcoin. The Lightning Network enables instant payments, and micropayments down to a fraction of a penny, and can scale up to the entire world. Micropayments alone could change e-commerce and the internet itself as we know it. Imagine machines or people streaming fractions of pennies for content or APIs and you can already begin to see a new future for the internet emerging. Traditional finance simply cannot achieve this.
The Lightning Network allows high throughput Layer 3 retail payment apps and services such as Cash App, Strike and many other apps to efficiently batch transactions into Bitcoin’s “blocks” for final settlement. Services on Layer 3 can offer the same protections we are used to in the legacy financial system, but anyone can freely access Bitcoin’s Layer 2 or Layer 1 whenever they want.
“While it would require time and investment, Visa’s payment network could sit on top of the bitcoin network to fulfill payments much the same way it sits on top of the existing banking system.”
There is no doubt that the larger cryptocurrency industry has become rife with fraud, scams and deception and it’s commendable that McKenzie makes an effort to warn the public about those dangers. However, in his haste to condemn the entire industry, he failed to fundamentally understand what sets Bitcoin apart from the seemingly endless “crypto” scams and fraud that have sprung up around Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention.
Bitcoin’s Lightning Network has a theoretical throughput of 40 million transactions per second. Just as the internet took more than a generation to achieve today’s levels of connectivity and reach, the Lightning Network would need time to grow its liquidity for it to achieve this theoretical maximum throughput. The performance of the Lightning Network is already astounding and is faster than traditional contactless payments. Thus, the testimony McKenzie provided to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that, “Bitcoin simply cannot ever work at scale as a medium of exchange” was not only misleading, it was false.
McKenzie, who after getting high one evening decided to write a book on the rampant fraud in the crypto industry, has since begun a collaboration with journalist Jacob Silverman on the endeavor. McKenzie earned his bachelor of arts degree from the University of Virginia in 2001, majoring in foreign affairs and economics. That the U.S. Senate Banking Committee felt that an actor with an atrophied undergraduate degree in economics would somehow make an expert witness for a particularly complicated financial innovation suggests that the hearing was solely intended as political theater.
Senators Regurgitate Ben McKenzie’s Fallacious Testimony
When it was Senator Mark Warner’s turn to ask questions, he remarked:
“I do think it’s curious that China made the decision to basically take that kind of risk, to ban crypto, because of their, at least, risk/reward analysis… The clunkiness of the technology behind Bitcoin, it could never go to scale no matter what! If you can only do 5 or 6 transactions per second, that is not a scalable tool and obviously a technology at a power and environmental cost. It just doesn’t make sense to me.”
Ignoring for a moment that Senator Warner thought it was “curious” that an authoritarian country made the risk/reward calculation to ban free speech of code and software — which is protected under the First Amendment — McKenzie’s false testimony had misinformed the senator into thinking that Bitcoin cannot scale when it is in fact already rapidly scaling.
SMITH: As I understand it, crypto mining is built on a process that becomes more and more energy intensive, over time. Is that correct?
MCKENZIE: Yes.
SMITH: So, it’s inherently inefficient. Is that correct?
MCKENZIE: The technology is bad.
SMITH: And so, where is the benefit of this kind of innovation? How should we think about the impacts when it comes to the climate and energy impacts? Because when crypto mines are located in communities, those communities often see their energy prices go up — their energy rates go up — is that correct?
MCKENZIE: That’s right. I visited the largest crypto mine in the country, Whinstone, which is in Rockdale, Texas, just outside of my hometown of Austin, Texas. Local citizens are upset. It raises the cost of electricity for all citizens. And it also uses an enormous amount of energy. It took over a former Alcoa aluminum smelting plant that had been abandoned and now we are using it to mine ephemeral digital assets of no productive value.
While it’s convenient that McKenzie just happened to have visited a mining operation and could provide Smith with the exact answers that confirmed her biases, unfortunately he has zero expertise on energy markets, demand response programs, power engineering or mining and has no qualifications to inform congress or policy on the matter.
The idea that Bitcoin mining is an “inefficient” technology and therefore needs the government to reign it in is nonsensical. If it were as inefficient as claimed, there would be no need to stop it, since more efficient technologies would be able to outcompete it and easily replace it. This is precisely the reason we have markets — to let the most efficient and cheapest technologies win over the inefficient and expensive technologies that will fail. Those who are willing to take the risk on those technologies are either rewarded or bear the consequences.
McKenzie doesn’t divulge that ERCOT, the Texas grid, is isolated and therefore is required to have excess dispatchable energy for extreme weather events. That excess energy needs to be consumed by large scale flexible customers who are willing to pay for it is an open market when it’s not needed. Buying energy that would otherwise go wasted, for computation, keeps dispatchable energy profitable and officially classifies Bitcoin miners as beneficial large flexible loads (LFLs) by the ERCOT grid. A recent ERCOT study showed miners are essential to its demand response strategy.
As demand response consumers, miners purchase wholesale energy in advance and buy private insurance products that incentivize them to turn off their machines when prices rise during periods of increased consumer demand — thus balancing the grid and its prices, while increasing grid reliability. The idea that McKenzie or any critic could isolate escalating power prices to a single consumer in a deregulated wholesale market is extremely dubious. Such a claim ignores the recent tripling in natural gas prices, as well as the recent build out of over 10 gigawatts of solar power and Texas load growth from non-mining customers, such as the Tesla Gigafactory.
Senator Smith and McKenzie’s suggestion that mining becomes “more and more energy intensive over time” is highly misleading and shows a lack of understanding of the technology. Like any publicly-traded commodity such as bitcoin, the energy required is economically linked to the public’s demand for its declining issuance, and unfolds in a highly-competitive open energy market. There is nothing about the technology that requires the consumption of more and more energy over time. Bitcoin’s four-year “halving” cycle reduces the rewards that miners receive to purchase energy. In fact, Bitcoin’s critics claim that miners may not be able to afford to buy as much energy, decades from now — a topic which is hotly debated. Eventually, critics will need to get their stories straight. Either miners will have the money to purchase energy in the future or they won’t, however, both outcomes cannot be true.
The Senate’s thespians don’t care that Bitcoin mitigates waste methane emissions from oil and natural gas exploration where there is no other use for waste CH₄, which would otherwise be vented into the atmosphere and would heavily contribute to warming forces. To them, Bitcoin is “bad” simply because people having the voluntaryoption for a digital sound money, without counterparty risk, threatens their politics.
“It’s not decentralized… Bitcoin is controlled by a few core software developers — fewer than 10. And they can make changes to the software and that software is implemented by mining pools and there’s just a few of them.”
Allen’s assertion is factually incorrect and shows a fundamentally flawed understanding of how Bitcoin works and why it is valued for being extremely difficult to change. Even if you believe that the project’s maintainers, who have the elevated commit and publishing privileges, could persuade the largest mining pools to support their own whims, they would still need to persuade a majority of the world’s independent miners to stay loyal to existing mining pools. Creating new competing pools is trivial and any software update supported by pools that miners disagreed with could easily be avoided by creating new pools for defectors to join.
And what if miners unanimously supported a software update that users didn’t want? In 2017, 83% of the global hash rate attempted to force an update to increase Bitcoin’s block size and failed because the users, who are actually responsible for propagating and interacting with the Bitcoin network through their own full nodes, refused to install the new software. The Bitcoin network simply doesn’t exist or propagate without the user nodes, so miners defecting to their own network is pointless unless they convince users to come with them. The history of this critical test for Bitcoin was carefully documented by Jonathan Bier in his book, “The Blocksize War: The Battle Over Who Controls Bitcoin’s Protocol Rules.”
Running a full node is fairly easy. At minimum, all it takes is a hard drive, a Raspberry Pi and an internet connection. Since Bitcoin updates with soft forks (backwards-compatible software updates), users who find themselves in the minority always have the right to dissent and oppose contentious updates by just continuing to run the software with the rules they signed up for. Additionally, even if the entire Bitcoin Core team went rogue, users would be able to install alternative competing clients in their nodes, without forking the blockchain.
Other so-called innovative “crypto” projects use coercive techniques to force updates while they try to rapidly innovate like software companies. No other project offers the kind of user rights that Bitcoin offers. As such, there is no incentive for Bitcoin users to run a fork that fundamentally changes Bitcoin’s properties — its resistance to change is the core value proposition that its users are drawn to and demand.
Is it plausible that Bitcoin could be tested again and fail the same test in the future? Of course. But for Professor Allen to ignore the fact that users ultimately decide Bitcoin’s fate — as well as its well-documented history proving its resilience to unwanted changes from miners and developers — shows Allen was either woefully unprepared to be discussing such technical aspects of Bitcoin or is intentionally misleading senators and the public with her testimony.
A Performance Of Misinformation
If anything was evident from the hearing, it was that there was zero effort to ascertain nuance or truth — the hearing was political theater. Unfortunately, having an undergraduate degree in economics, or reaching the higher echelons of Bitcoin-resenting academia, does not automatically qualify one to have the expertise to inform the Senate on how Bitcoin works. If only it were that easy. Understanding Bitcoin requires an open, multidisciplinary mind and hours upon hours of research just to begin scratching the surface. Perhaps Kanye West’s recent public statement on Bitcoin could have gone a long way for McKenzie and Allen.
“As far as Bitcoin, I’m just not knowledgeable enough to speak on that subject.”
Warren’s rapid-fire question and answer session with Allen showed Allen nervously reading, verbatim, pre-scripted answers to Warren’s questions. McKenzie on the other hand had the discipline to memorize and perform his lines with poise and confidence. If only they each had the expertise required to address the U.S Senate Banking Committee on Bitcoin — a technology that quite literally enables self custody and solves the breaches of trust that the hearing was ostensibly concerned with.
Whether the hearings participants realized they were being manipulated by politicians or not, participating in political theater means they are normalizing the loss of privacy rights as they lobby for legislation to limit the right to self custody digital property and one’s identity. Such action not only empowers governments to enact greater monitoring controls, install social credit systems and strip personal freedoms, but it also exposes consumers to the prying eyes of corporations and any hackers that can infiltrate highly-centralized data. Ironically, such restrictions will empower their political opponents when our political pendulums invariably swing in the other direction.
Meanwhile, Warren is headed in the opposite direction. She recently introduced a bipartisan bill with Senator Roger Marshall to aggressively close crypto money laundering loopholes by imposing Orwellian controls on all users. The bill seeks to make self-custody technology illegal — a dangerous policy that would expose Americans to mandated government surveillance and only increase the chances of the fraud that FTX committed against its users when funds were rehypothecated and stolen through their custodial platform. Stopping this kind of fraud was what the hearing was supposed to be about and is exactly the kind of protection that Bitcoin already empowers through self custody.
“Regardless, the good news is two-fold: Cryptocurrency-related crime is falling, and it still remains a small part of the overall cryptocurrency economy.”
However, this is not to say that crypto doesn’t have a problem with fraud. To Allen and McKenzie’s credit, 99.99% of the “crypto” market is indeed scams, and they should be commended for calling them out. Yet, to blindly call Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention a scam shows a lack of critical thinking and expertise. To attack Bitcoin — an open, global and neutral economic protocol layer for the internet with no issuer and no central control — simply because one does not like it or understand it, shows a lack of humility and unwillingness to recognize real-world benefits with an open mind.
If the U.S. Senate Banking Committee has any desire to preserve freedoms and keep the United States from falling behind other nations, it would do well to seek out actual experts who work in Bitcoin mining, energy markets and those who are using its layered payments architecture to build the next generation of commerce. Political theater will only cause the U.S. to fall further behind the rest of the world in all of these areas.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index has finally fallen below the 3900- to 4100-point trading range.
The move prompted an immediate reaction down to 3800, the next support level. (To see my suggestion for a so-called Santa Claus rally, please see the next item, below.)
Frankly, I would have expected more selling after the S&P 500 SPX, -2.32%
broke a support level of that magnitude (perhaps a move to 3700).
So, 3700 is the next support level, and then there is support at the yearly lows near 3500. On the upside, there is now resistance in the 3900-3940 area.
The larger picture is that SPX is still in a downtrend, and that the last rally failed in early December right at the downtrend line that defines this bear market. The declining 200-day moving average (MA) was also in that same area, near 4100.
We are closing our positions in the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) buy signal that occurred in early October, and we will now wait for a new signal to set up. If SPX were to close below the lower -4σ Band (currently at 3760 and declining), that would be the first step toward a new buy signal. That does not appear to be imminent.
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to rise and, thus, remain on sell signals. There has been some relatively heavy put buying in stock options over the past few weeks, and that has been a major contributing factor in the rise in the put-call ratios. These ratios are rather high on their charts, so they are considered to be in oversold territory. However, “oversold” does not mean “buy.”
After the market broke below 3900, breadth was poor for the next two days. That pushed the breadth oscillators — which were already on sell signals dating back to December 5th — into oversold territory. We are now watching to see if they can generate buy signals. In fact, the NYSE breadth oscillator did generate a buy signal as of December 21st, but the “stocks only” oscillator has not. We generally require that any signal from this indicator (which is subject to whipsaws) persist for at least two consecutive days before considering it to be an actionable signal.
New 52-week highs on the New York Stock Exchange have lagged for some time again, and thus the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator remains on a sell signal.
So, the above indicators are relatively negative, but that is contrasted by the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, +15.50%
indicators, which are more bullish. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of December 13th remains in place. Moreover, the trend of VIX buy signal, which is a more intermediate-term signal, remains in place. VIX would have to rise above 26 to cancel out these buy signals.
The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish. That is, the term structures of the VIX futures and of the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward. Moreover, the VIX futures are all trading at a premium to VIX. January VIX futures are now the front month, so we are watching for a warning sign, which would come if Jan VIX futures rose above the price of Feb VIX futures. That is not in danger of happening at this time.
The seasonal patterns that supposedly “rule” between Thanskgiving and the beginning of the new trading year have not worked out this year. The last of those patterns is yet to come, though — the Santa Claus rally — and it may still be able to salvage something for the bulls.
In summary, we continue to maintain a “core” bearish position and will continue to do so as long as SPX is in a downtrend. We will trade confirmed signals from our other indicators around that “core” position.
New recommendation: Santa Claus rally
The Santa Claus rally is a term and market seasonal pattern defined by Yale Hirsch over 60 years ago. It has a strong track record. The system is simple: The market rises over the last five trading days of one year and the first two trading days of the next year — a seven-day period.
This year the system begins at the close of trading on Thursday, December 22nd (today). However, if that period does not produce a gain by SPX, that would be a further negative for stocks going forward.
At the close of trading on Thursday, December 22nd,
Buy 2 SPY Jan (13th) at-the-money calls
And Sell 2 SPY Jan (13th) calls that are 15 points out of the money.
There is no stop for this trade, except for time. If the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, -2.29%
trades at the higher strike while the position is in place, then roll the entire spread up 15 points on each side. In any case, exit your spreads at the close of trading on Wednesday, January 4th (the second trading day of the new year).
Follow-up action
All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.
We are using a “standard” rolling procedure for our SPY spreads: in any vertical bull or bear spread, if the underlying hits the short strike, then roll the entire spread. That would be roll up in the case of a call bull spread, or roll down in the case of a bear put spread. Stay in the same expiration, and keep the distance between the strikes the same unless otherwise recommended.
Long 2 SPY Jan (20th) 375 puts and Short 2 Jan (20th) 355 puts: this is our “core” bearish position. As long as SPX remains in a downtrend, we want to maintain a position here.
Long 1 SPY Jan (6th) 408 call and short 1 SPY Jan (6th) 423 call: this trade is based on the MVB buy signal, which was established on October 4th. We have already rolled up a couple of times and taken some profit out of the position. Close the remaining spread now.
Long 2 KMB Jan (20th) 135 calls: we rolled this position up last week. The closing stop remains at 135.
Long 2 IWM Jan (20th) 185 at-the-money calls and Short 2 IWM Jan (20th) 205 calls: this is our position based on the bullish seasonality between Thanksgiving and the second trading day of the new year. We will adjust this position if IWM rallies during the holding period, but initially there is no stop for the position, so the entire debit is at risk.
Long 2 PSX Jan (20th) 105 puts: we intended to hold these puts as long as the weighted put-call ratio remains on a sell signal. However, the put-call ratio has rolled over to a buy signal, so exit these puts now.
Long 2 AJRD Jan (20th) 52.5 calls: AJRD received an all-cash takeover offer of $56, so exit these calls now. Do not sell them below parity.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20th) 402 call and Short 1 SPY Jan (20th) 417 calls: this spread was bought at the close on December 13th, when the latest VIX “spike peak” buy signal was generated. Stop yourself out if VIX subsequently closes above 25.84. Otherwise, we will hold for 22 trading days.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20th) 389 put and Short 1 SPY Jan (20th) 364 put: this was an addition to our “core” bearish position, established when SPX closed below 3900 on December 15th. Stop yourself out of this spread if SPX closes above 3940.
Long 2 PCAR Feb (17th) 97.20 puts: these puts were bought on December 20th, when they finally traded at our buy limit. We will continue to hold these puts as long as the weighted put-call ratio is on a sell signal.
Lawrence G. McMillan is president of McMillan Analysis, a registered investment and commodity trading advisor. McMillan may hold positions in securities recommended in this report, both personally and in client accounts. He is an experienced trader and money manager and is the author of the best-selling book, Options as a Strategic Investment. www.optionstrategist.com
Adolescents in Gujara Municipality of Rautahat District in Nepal perform a skit on child marriage as part of UNFPA-UNICEF Global Programme on Ending Child Marriage. Credit: UNICEF/Kiran Panday
Opinion by Hyshyama Hamin (colombo, sri lanka)
Inter Press Service
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka, Dec 22 (IPS) – The writer is Campaign Manager – Global Campaign for Equality in Family LawIn September 2021, in the midst of a pandemic-related lockdown, a 15-year-old Muslim girl from Colombo, Sri Lanka was married off by her relatives to a much older man.
A local women’s rights group reported this case to the national child protection authorities, however, because child marriage is still legal under the country’s Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act (MMDA), little could be done.
Nine months later, the girl was divorced by her husband at the Quazi (Muslim-judge) led court under a provision in the MMDA that allows him to unilaterally divorce at will and without any reason.
Many countries, especially in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Africa, continue to have civil, religious, or customary laws and practices on marriage and family matters that curtail the rights of women and girls.
An alarming finding in a new report, ‘Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals: The gender snapshot 2022’, released by UN Women and the UN Statistics Division, indicated that at the current rate of progress it may take up to 286 years to close gaps in legal protection between men and women and remove laws that discriminate against women and girls on the basis of their sex.
The report concluded that the world is not on track to achieve gender equality by 2030.
Sex discrimination in family law
Discrimination in family laws, specifically when it relates to marriage and family, spans from the time of entry into marriage, during the marriage, and at the time of dissolution of the marriage.
Organizations like Musawah have been mapping Muslim family laws in over 38 countries in three regions. Their research shows that the male guardianship system, where men are considered heads of the household and have legal authority over wives, daughters, and mothers, is very prevalent in MENA, South and Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Divorce rights continue to be unequal for women. In Algeria, Maldives, Malaysia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, women have more conditions and procedures than men in seeking a divorce.
Equal right to child custody and custody arrangements that center on the needs of the child, remains a challenge for mothers in the MENA region, and in Latin American countries like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.
Inheritance rights are still unequal in many parts of the world. World Bank (2018) data showed that at least 39 countries prevent daughters from inheriting the same proportion of assets as sons.
Family law is a critical issue of our time
Inequalities faced by women and girls under discriminatory family laws and practices affect all other areas of their lives.
According to the report by international women’s rights organization Equality Now, Words and Deeds: Holding Governments Accountable in the Beijing +25 Review Process, “sex discriminatory personal status laws violate women’s civil and political rights.” It gives examples of legal discrimination in numerous countries and notes that such laws, especially relating to property and inheritance, inhibit women’s full social and economic participation and opportunities.
There is also a direct correlation between legal authority and power afforded to males in the family, and restrictions on women’s autonomy and agency, along with an increased likelihood of experiencing sexual and domestic violence.
These inequalities have surged during the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing economic, political, and climate crises. In April 2020, UNFPA predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic may result in 13 million extra child marriages in the years immediately following this global health emergency.
Women activists calling for reform face serious opposition
For decades, women’s rights groups and activists in countries such as Malaysia, Morocco, India, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Uganda, to name a few, have been advocating for the reform of unequal family laws. In Iran, women are currently leading the national struggle for free will to decide on matters of personal choice like dress code and other fundamental freedoms.
Activists calling for change face heavy opposition, including intimidation and threats from conservative religious and right-wing groups, who often claim that family laws and practices are a matter of freedom of religion and belief.
But rights groups are pushing back by repeatedly making the case that freedom of religion or belief can never be used to justify inequalities towards women and girls and that human rights cannot stop at the front door of a family home.
Despite growing evidence of the impacts of discriminatory family laws, state action and political will towards reforming discriminatory laws, especially family laws, is almost non-existent. In fact, in countries like Iran and Afghanistan, women activists also face direct risk and harm to life and limb from state authorities themselves.
The need for global action
The Global Campaign for Equality in Family Law was launched in March 2020 by eight leading women’s rights and faith-inspired organizations, as well as UN Women. The Campaign is calling for governments to prioritize equality in family law, policy, and practice, especially in light of multiple other crises that affect women and girls disproportionately.
In tandem, efforts of courageous community and national activists pushing for reform of discriminatory family laws need to be amplified and resourced. Regionally and globally, feminist movements must further promote family law reform as a crucial issue.
Achieving gender equality without equality in the family is impossible. We cannot wait 286 years before countries are free of laws, procedures, and practices that discriminate against women and girls.
The time to put family law reform on the agenda is now!
This is an opinion editorial by Mickey Koss, a West Point graduate with a degree in economics. He spent four years in the infantry before transitioning to the Finance Corps.
2022 started with a bang, especially in Canada. Whether or not you agree with the premise behind the Canadian Trucker Protest, I think most can agree that freedom of speech is a keystone right in modern Western Democracies.
Above is a snippet from an article from the Motley Fool, written in March 2022. Though I don’t agree with its conclusion or reasoning, the fact that traditional outlets were asking questions like that was a massive signal that perhaps the normies are starting to catch on.
More recently, the Iranian government announced that it would be freezing the bank accounts of women who refuse to wear hijabs, traditional Muslim head covering, in public. This came after the threat of imprisonments and executions in order to quell ongoing protests for the freedom of expression there. As of December 8, 2022, one protester had already been executed by hanging by the Iranian government.
The fact is, nobody is going to save you. Ethereum insists on being the new decentralized money of the internet, and yet, the protocol is enforcing Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) sanctions on its base layer. It’s becoming pretty clear that Bitcoin is perhaps the only easily-transportable freedom money left. I think this distinction became all the more clear as 2022 continued.
The Altcoin Bonanza Goes Down in Flames
“The same technology that allows for peer-to-peer money has allowed for peer-to-peer scams.”
From Celsius, to Three Arrows Capital, Luna, FTX, BlockFi, Voyager, and even Gemini, companies that deal in altcoins all felt pain in one form or another — Leverage, rehypothecation, algorithmic Ponzi schemes and the like. It seems to be that the biggest use case for crypto is making a quick buck at the expense of others, while rug pulling normies as your exit liquidity. It’s like the 1990s tech boom all over again.
One of the most interesting parts of this whole debacle were the accusations of a lack of bitcoin held at FTX after its balance sheet was revealed in bankruptcy filings. Whether or not the accusations are true, the fact that it’s a legitimate question is illuminating. It appears to have sparked a fire. I think, slowly but surely, people are starting to see the difference and realize that Bitcoin and crypto really aren’t the same things after all.
The Turning Point Of 2023
Bitcoin has differentiated itself not only from the traditional banking system in a meaningful way, but from crypto as well.
The FTX debacle has highlighted the necessity for self custody: that your coins may not actually exist and the only way to find out if they’re real is to take custody. Bitcoin is now leaving exchanges in droves.
Could this be a turning point for Bitcoin? Could people be waking up to the importance of self custody en masse? Only time will tell. I am optimistic that this trend will continue, taking the power from centralized exchanges and their ability to enforce censorship on behalf of hostile regimes. As far as I’m concerned, the more bitcoin in self custody, the better.
If you’re still hesitant to take self custody I recommend watching some BTC Sessions demonstrations. It’s really not that difficult and the peace of mind is priceless. I nearly lost everything earlier this year when Celsius blew up. Don’t be like me. Stop procrastinating and take possession of your bitcoin today. Only then will you truly understand why and how it’s different.
This is a guest post by Mickey Koss. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
This is an opinion editorial by Will Schoellkopf, author of “The Bitcoin Dog” and host of the Bitcoin podcast “It’s So Early!”
When it comes to paywalls versus #value4value, is it really all or nothing?
Author’s note: My aim is not to attack anyone personally. I will use specific people’s quotes for my examples, but my intent is to respectfully challenge ideas, not attack people. Healthy debate of ideas in good faith helps Bitcoin, so I hope they understand.
In Gigi’s article, “The Freedom of Value,” he breaks down what’s broken with the monetization of information, “The problem with the internet is that information wants to be free.”
As a content creator, in my case a writer, this problem with the internet hits home. It’s a lot of work to write good content, and I don’t work for free. I look to be compensated for my proof-of-work. As the Joker says, “If you’re good at something, never do it for free.”
Gigi breaks down the problem of just trying to sell information (like a written book/article) behind a paywall into two distinct reasons, the “MTX problem” (Mental Transaction problem) and the “DRM paradox” (Digital Rights Management paradox).
I acknowledge the “DRM paradox” has no solution: “content will only stay locked behind paywalls if it sucks. If it’s good, it will be set free.”
Additionally, Gigi explains: “The MTX problem, with MTX being short for ‘mental transaction,’ refers to the problem of irreducible mental transaction costs inherent to every transaction. Every time you hit a paywall, you have to make a conscious decision: ‘Do I want to pay for that?’”
Since Gigi “believe[s] that the MTX problem is a bigger deal than the DRM paradox,” that will be the focus of this article. Gigi acknowledges the traditional solution to spare the consumer of the headache of mental transactions is the subscription model, but then so many different subscriptions are needed for exclusive content that it becomes impractical again.
With an open mind, willing to see not just black and white but entertain shades of gray, please consider how lightning microtransactions, deployed the right way, can work towards solving the mental transaction problem. As Nick Szabo states:
“A micropayments system assumes a solution to the mental accounting problem. If somebody could actually solve this problem … the savings would be enormous even in existing business … not to mention all the new possibilities possible by lower transaction costs.”
To begin, why do people enjoy just outright buying a book? Nick Szabo answers this concisely: “A flat fee constitutes an embedded, implicit insurance contract.”
When I offer my ebook at a flat price, the reader is safe. They know they own it and can read it at their leisure. However, this flat price creates a barrier to entry. It becomes all-or-nothing if they want to read the ebook. But if I break this barrier into pieces, and make each chapter a mini paywall pay-per-click lightning transaction, then the reader only pays for what they enjoy!
Enter: the pay-as-you-enjoy model. If the reader enjoys the chapter, they can pay-per-click to read the next one, and the next one. If they’re done reading before having reached the end, they’ll have spared themselves from having to pay to read the whole book. It wasn’t all-or-nothing!
Through pay-as-you-enjoy, the reader loses the insurance that I won’t increase the cost per chapter as they continue to read through the book over time, but hold onto that thought for a bit.
Nick Szabo points out the flaws of the pay-per-click monetization model: “There has been floating for a while the idea of ‘pay per click,’ a micropayment for every click on the Web to pay its owner for content. However, since there has been no chance to browse the content, there is no way to directly ascertain whether it meets tacit preferences: there is no accurate customer observable explicit preference. Browsing a preview or book cover is still inaccurate, and entails increasing mental costs the more accurate it is.”
Again, I’m building towards a solution to the mental transaction problem. “Attribute observation costs” are still present, and that’s ok. There’s no attribute observation cost in Value4Value because the reader can keep reading without paying anything at all. No cost per click. Even still, Value4Value confronts the same final problem that pay-as-you-enjoy tackles head-on. As Nick Szabo concludes:
“Assuming, for the moment, perfect information on the product at hand, and no uncertainty as to future cash flows, a third and more basic source of customer cognitive cost remains, namely the cost of making decisions with a large, but nevertheless very incomplete, set of alternatives.”
Even if the reader already knew everything about the content, and knew for sure their budget, how can they know for certain they should spend their money on this instead of something else?
In practice, consumers just make decisions because they have to. The mental transaction problem persists because they’re either deciding whether to give value back once they’ve finished reading, or they’re freed of this because they’ve already spent the money to read the work in the first place.
Value4Value is just delaying the mental transaction problem until after the reader has finished reading. As Adam Curry explains, “The Ask is the most important piece of the puzzle. The #1 reason why people do not give to charities and the like is because they weren’t asked, and the same is true for the Value4Value model.”
Since part of the Value4Value loop is “The Ask,” it hasn’t fixed the “costly decision making” piece of the Mental Transaction Problem. Versus pay-as-you-enjoy, my readers can finish reading and feel good that they’ve paid a price I felt was fair, rather than wrestle internally on who to support.
In fact, with lightning, I think we’ve come close to solving the intelligent agent problem Nick Szabo describes:
“There seems here to be a fundamental cognitive bottleneck. One proposed solution to this has been “intelligent agents”. But since these agents are programmed remotely, not by the consumer, it is difficult for the consumer to determine whether the agent is acting the consumers’ best interests, or in the best interests of the counterparty — perhaps, necessarily, at least as difficult as reading the corresponding full statement of charges. Furthermore, the user interface to enable consumers to simply express their sophisticated preferences to an agent is lacking, and may represent another fundamental cognitive bottleneck.”
Nick describes an “intelligent agent” as someone the consumer delegates to make purchases on their behalf – sparing them the headache – but then they still have to explain to the agent what they enjoy. As part of pay-as-you-enjoy, once the consumer sets up their budget (their “flat fee” insurance mentioned above), they are free to engage in pay-per-click reading without worry about overspending! This agent which deducts sats per click is not programmed remotely, but by the consumer. Moreover, the consumer sees the author’s monetary policy up front when they set their budget. They know the price per chapter, but also how much to spend to get one month of free access – an incentive to give the author what they see as the full value for their work! The pay-as-you-enjoy user interface is slick. The consumer sets their budget and then it’s pay-per-click!
Nick Szabo summarizes the MTX problem as the following:
“We have seen how customer mental transaction costs can derive from at least three sources: uncertain cash flows, incomplete and costly observation of product attributes, and incomplete and costly decision making. These costs will increasingly dominate the technological costs of payment systems, setting a limit on the granularity of bundling and pricing. Prices don’t come for free.”
In the table above, they are tied. However, when it comes to written content like books, I think pay-as-you-enjoy has the edge.
As Adam Curry points out, only ~4% of people give value back. For him and his established podcast audience, he thinks that’s ok. He says, “Somehow, however, it all works out in the end.”
This “Somehow” is misleading. He emphasizes the need for the “Feedback Loop.” “Gone are the days of static broadcasting.
Ask
Acknowledge
Repeat”
Books are not living, breathing documents. They’re static. If acknowledgment and the feedback loop are needed to monetize 4% of your readers, that’s a lot of pressure for new authors without a large following or way to give acknowledgment back.
I’ll spare my readers the costly decision making at the end of the work. I’ll let them pay-as-you-enjoy! And I’ll implement a donate button and a boost button as well so they can give extra value back if they particularly like a scene!
You can try out lightning enabled pay-as-you-enjoy at BitcoinDogBook.com, powered by Mash! In a followup article, I present a technical architecture breakdown of how content creators can implement the same model!
This is a guest post by Will Schoellkopf. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.
Investors love dividend stocks but there are different ways to look at them, including various “quality” approaches. Today we are focusing on high yields.
A high dividend yield can be a warning that investors have lost confidence in a company’s ability to maintain its dividend payout. But there are always exceptions, some of which can be brought about by market events — some investors remain skeptical of energy stocks, for example, after so much pain before this year’s outstanding performance for the sector.
Below is a screen of stocks that have high dividend yields and are favored by analysts. The screen has no financial quality filters.
For investors who are interested in dividend stocks but wish to focus on quality and total returns, this recent look at the S&P Dividend Aristocrats (companies that have raised dividends consistently for many years) might be of interest. For those looking for income but also worried about dividend cuts, here is a list of stocks with dividend yields of at least 5% whose payouts are expected to be well-covered by free cash flow in 2023.
Removing the filters for a high-yield dividend-stock screen
For a broad screen of stocks with high dividend yields that are favored by analysts, we began with the S&P Composite 1500 Index SP1500, +1.42%,
which is made up of the S&P 500 SPX, +1.42%,
the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index MID, +1.48%,
and the S&P 600 Small Cap Index SML, +1.49%.
The S&P indexes exclude energy partnerships, so we added the 15 stocks held by the Alerian MLP ETF AMLP, +1.81%
to the list. Energy partnerships tend to have high distribution yields, in part because they pass most earnings through to investors. But they also can make tax preparation more complicated. They can also be volatile as oil CL00, +2.96%
CL00 and natural-gas NG00, +1.58%
prices swing.
The S&P indexes also exclude business development companies, or BDCs, so we expanded our initial screen to include the 24 stocks held by the VanEck BDC income ETF BIZD, +0.76%.
BDCs are specialized leveraged lenders that make loans with high interest rates, mainly to middle-market companies. They often take equity stakes in the companies they lend to, for a venture-capital-type of investment style. The BDC space features several stocks with very high dividend yields, but is also known for volatility.
You have been warned — this particular stock screen focuses only on high yields and favorable ratings among analysts working for brokerage firms. There is no look back at dividend cuts and no cash-flow analysis as featured in other dividend-stock articles. If you see anything of interest resulting from the screen, you need to do your own research to consider whether or not a long-term commitment to one or more of these companies is worth the risk as you seek high income.
The screen
Starting with the S&P Composite 1500 and the components of AMLP and BIZD, there are 68 stocks with dividend yields of at least 8%, according to data provided by FactSet.
Among the 68 companies, 55 made the first screen, because they are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.
Among the 55 companies, 11 have “buy” or equivalent ratings among at least 70% of analysts.
Here they are, ranked by upside potential implied by analysts’ consensus price targets:
WASHINGTON DC, Dec 21 (IPS) – There are two sides to the problem of Gender Parity at the United Nations.
On the one hand, member states need to appoint more women to their senior ambassadorial ranks. There is always tremendous competition for the post of UN ambassador, especially if a member state is on the UN security Council.
It’s a pipeline question for the member states. To reach that level of seniority, a diplomat has to have the years of service. It will likely take time for countries to have the flow through of women ambassadors. So, the UN Secretary-Genera (SG) is correct in putting the onus on member states to change or accelerate their systems.
That said, there is still a problem within the UN itself.
In the last 5 years, many governments notably the UK, Italy, the Scandinavians have sponsored the regional women’s mediation networks. For example. I’m a member of the Women Mediators Across the Commonwealth (WMC).
The vision was to identify women with the requisite skills and experience in mediation efforts and provide a new pathway into senior UN positions particularly as Envoys and mediation work. In the WMC we have 50 amazingly experienced women from across Commonwealth nations.
Similarly, the Mediterranean Women’s Mediation Network has members from that region. For senior positions, our governments have to support our candidacy, and they have done so.
But the UN system is a blockage, because when it comes to determining eligibility, their criteria still include things like ’15 years of UN experience’. Well, the whole point is that most of us have gained experience outside of the UN bureaucracy or as expert consultants with the UN, but not as UN staff.
We bring a wealth of other valuable expertise, yet the skill and knowledge that outsiders might bring seems of less value to the recruiters, than then traditional institutional knowledge. As a result, the female candidates that member states might endorse, are blocked by the UN.
If they are serious about having more women in the peace and security sector, particularly women with the relevant experience in inclusive and gender responsive peacemaking, security humanitarian work, they need to look for us in civil society. This is where most of the innovation has happened and is happening.
The work being done by women on the ground and lessons sharing that goes on through our networks is invaluable. It is exactly what the UN needs to be more fit for purpose. It is also the path towards actual reform and renovation of the UN architecture and practice.
But it can only happen if the member states and the UN leadership and bureaucracy have the vision, political will and willingness to change their recruitment priorities and practices.
Anyone claiming they can’t find the women, is willfully ignoring the facts.
Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, MBE, Founder & CEO, International Civil Society Action Network in Washington DC.
This is an opinion editorial by Aleks Svetski, author of “The UnCommunist Manifesto,” founder of The Bitcoin Times and Host of the “Wake Up Podcast with Svetski.” It is part four of his “Remnant Series.”
I grew up as an extreme empath. But the last few years have radicalized me and made me cold, dissociated and distant toward much of the world and its hordes of mindless inhabitants.
I traveled to 20 countries during 2020 to 2022, and no matter where I went, I was surrounded by compliant lemmings who either lacked the intelligence to recognize blatant lies, or the courage to call them out, or who were simply devoid of the dignity necessary to stand up for what is true and self-evident.
What’re more, I have seen a growing number of these creatures simply abdicate all responsibility and fill this vacuum with an ever-increasing diet of sludge for the mind (like Netflix, CNBC, Disney and Facebook), body (sugar water, seed oils, sunscreen and injection subscriptions) and soul (Scientism, Communism, Reddit Atheism and Moral Relativism).
It’s as disgusting as it is pathetic.
It is everything that our ancestors hoped we as humans would not become. Rivers of blood were literally spilled by those who came before us in order to build civilization from the soil of the earth itself. It is now being consumed by mindless zombies roaming around aimlessly, virtue signaling about their medical compliance paperwork, their gender dysphoria and their nihilism.
There is no more dignity in the mind, body or soul of the mindless masses. There is only emptiness. The NPC is real, and it is everywhere.
As such, I am no longer under the illusion that I am in Bitcoin for “the good of the masses.” No. Fuck that.
I do not care about the masses. I am in Bitcoin because it is right. Because it is just. Because it is sound. Because it is true.
I am in Bitcoin because it is the best thing I can do for me and my family and it is what any self-respecting individual would do. A dignified individual would not degrade themselves to the level of modern serf by trading the product of their blood, sweat, time and tears for digital Monopoly money issued by parasites.
It’s an absolutely ridiculous state of affairs that both our ancestors and forebears will be embarrassed by.
I doubt anyone with a sense of self would go and work all week at a cafe only to be paid in coffee grounds, or build a business only to sell products and services for mere hugs and high fives.
If you’re not accepting or demanding payment in bitcoin, or at least swapping out your surplus toilet paper money in exchange for bitcoin savings, then I don’t know what you’re doing.
Bitcoin Is Fair
I am in Bitcoin because it is fair, and I want to play a fair game because it’s the only way to truly satisfy my soul. My pursuit in life is to become the best version of myself and to do so requires that I contend with my opponents on a battlefield with transparent rules of engagement.
To become better, I must play a fair game, not some rigged stupidity where I “win” because the other guy had his hands tied behind his back. There is neither honor nor dignity in that. One does not get better nor advance by cheating. That’s what the plutocrats and parasites do not understand, that’s why they are inferior, and that’s why they will forever be bitter and envious of the natural elite.
The parasites who run the central banking and planning offices of the globalist cabals are not “elite.”
They are pathetic worms who cannot compete, so they spend their entire lives cheating. The price they pay for winning a fake prize is a soulless existence, and cheap, frivolous obedience from the mindless masses.
They earn no respect or reverence from those who count, and they will go to their graves hated and irrelevant. Imagine living a life as pathetic as that: To be literally hated by anyone that matters, and obeyed by everyone who doesn’t matter. It’s quite sad, actually.
Bitcoin Is For Anyone, But For Everyone
Much to the chagrin of many of the egalitarian ilk of Bitcoiners, I do not believe that Bitcoin will “help” the masses of the world in the short term, nor is it likely to do so in the medium term.
The world is likely to continue to bifurcate in the coming decade(s), and largely be defined by the Bitcoiners and no-coiners (which includes shitcoiners and fiat maxis). Of course there will be sub-categories, and we always have the third class, known as parasites, as described in parts one and three of this Remnant Series, but for simplicity, let’s just think about it as the following image:
The latter, the no-coiners, are the masses, and if anything, they will walk right into their central bank digital currency (CBDC) gulags with smiles on their faces (which won’t be visible behind their three-layer face diapers), and the continued monetisation of Bitcoin will actually impoverish them, relatively speaking.
The purchasing power of their fake money, coupled with the continued deterioration of their health and their productivity will mean that, in comparison to bitcoin-denominated strongholds, filled with healthy, strong, dignified and productive people, their relative wealth will crater.
They are categorically fucked, along with their parasitic overlords who they blindly worship.
And rightly so. I’m here for it. There is nothing more moral than a fair game, with just consequences borne by the actors themselves. You want to walk into the lava? By all means do so, but it’s you who burns. I won’t be jumping in to save you. In fact, I won’t even know, because I’ll be too busy building the walls around my citadel to keep your dumb ass out.
Bitcoin is the come-to-Jesus moment for all of humanity and mark my words:
In the short term, it will hurt more people than it helps, but in the long run, it will save us all.
Bitcoin is the long-term cure for a cancerous civilization that is eating itself alive. Every short-term opium hit that was injected to help obfuscate reality has led us down this path, step by step. We have weakened the corpus of humanity through this short-termism. Bitcoin changes this and will wreak havoc in the immediate future, in exchange for a much brighter, fairer and truer long-term future.
But Aleks, Why Are You Such An Asshole?
I’m not here to bring you sunshine and roses, or blow smoke up your butthole. There are British podcasters available for such deeds.
I’m here to preach reality.
I seek not to be a preacher for the masses, but for the Remnant. Despite my inherent empathy, I no longer care for the welfare of those who have neither the respect, courage nor dignity to care for it themselves.
I will help those who choose to help themselves first, but I will not be a martyr for the masses. I will not jump into the lava to save the lemmings. I will no longer sacrifice my time helping the unhelpable, when I could be using it to provide for my wife, my family and those who have first sought to help themselves.
I’m in Bitcoin for me, for those I love and, most importantly, because it is right.
Believe it or not, you are in it for the same reasons. You’re most likely just ashamed of admitting it, so you sugarcoat your own naturally-selfish, honorable desire with some fake, politically correct “crusade for the unfortunate.”
Please. Stop bullshitting me. I can see right through you.
The only people wanting to “altruistically” help others are either wolves in sheeps’ clothing, liars or the do-gooders who put their noses in everyone’s business. You know, that loser you didn’t invite or ask for an opinion, but who came to your house to tell you how you should run it. People like Bill Gates, Yuval Harari or Sam Harris. The kinds of walking turd most likely to become a Statist, Communist, intellectual or bureaucrat.
They project their own inadequacies on the rest of the world and proceed to push their flavor of “help” onto everyone under the often naively-believed guise of “helping the disadvantaged.”
I do not subscribe to such frauds.
A human with dignity helps himself and his family first. He extends that if it makes sense, but he does not impose that help. He does not meddle, and he leaves space for others to rise up of their own accord.
Only responsibility can fix the world, and Bitcoin is responsibility go up technology. There is no more important force in the world today, and long term it will help everyone at the short-term cost of the comfortable, complacent life of many.
Fitness Equals Rightness
That which is right is that which fits.
This is the essence of fitness, and in my opinion, morality. Morality is doing the “right thing.” That which most fits and is of the greatest good for the most impacted. The golden thread, so to speak.
To me, this is “why Bitcoin.” It is the most right and fit money. There is no better money than one which respects and adheres to the conservation of energy and the direction of time.
This will have monumental consequences on civilization, and as I said, long term, it will help everyone by leveling the playing field and thus creating a realm in which people orient toward noble competition and cooperation rather than cheating in order to get ahead. People must orient toward responsibility in order to succeed on a Bitcoin standard, and for many, this will be painful.
But it’s necessary, because it’s right. And this is what I implore you to understand. Come to Bitcoin and embrace it, not for some altruistic, politically-correct notion of “I want to help the masses,” because that’s bullshit and deep down you know it.
Come to Bitcoin because it’s right. It’s the dignified individual’s choice. It’s your greatest advantage and the highest truth you will discover on your path through life.
You can be unapologetically honest and truthful, or a politely confused altruist and liar. The former will earn you respect, from your own self first, then everyone else. The latter will make you a simp, without dignity, always degrading yourself for some cause.
Ignore me, or allow these seeds to take root. The choice is yours.
Only remember…
Bitcoin will help those mostly who can help themselves. Bitcoin is just, fair and true. Bitcoin is right
The Remnant knows this. That’s why they love Bitcoin, and that’s why they are true Bitcoiners.
This is a guest post by Aleks Svetski, author “The UnCommunist Manifesto” and founder of The Bitcoin Times. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
This is an opinion editorial by Bernardo Filipe, a life-long thinker, philosopher and author of “The Straight Science.”
“Of course, I hate the bitcoin success and I don’t welcome a currency that’s useful to kidnappers and extortionists, and so forth. Nor do I like just shoveling out a few extra billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air. So I think I should say modestly that I think the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization. And I’ll leave the criticism to others.” — Charlie Munger
It’s time we condense into a couple of bullet points some of the ways in which bitcoin will likely contribute to civilization. For some of its contributions have by now become apparent. Afterwards, we’ll analyze Munger’s arguments. So, to start off, bitcoin:
Reduces administrative bloat. By making the ledger public, much of the work needed to verify and audit wealth transfers is obliterated.
Cheaply transfers large sums of wealth across the globe.
Can potentially work like a treasury bond but delivering higher yield returns. This is because the real return on bonds is always lower than the nominal expectation, due to inflation.
Will increasingly function as a secure store of wealth or even as a savings account, as its market capitalization grows and its volatility decreases. Both the colossal amount of computing power that already powers Bitcoin, and the manner in which this computing power is distributed across several jurisdictions, ensure that Bitcoin’s network and therefore ledger is incorruptible.
The contribution to civilization is expected to be so significant that gold and treasury bonds should gradually become obsolete, as bitcoin’s adoption rate increases. So bitcoin is indeed merely another financial product, or asset, at the moment, but assuming its adoption keeps growing, it will gradually replace older, less efficient, and ultimately more expensive financial products and assets. Bitcoin is real financial engineering that stores work-energy flows from energy production sites right into an incorruptible and irreproducible digital asset. As Michael Saylor elucidates, bitcoin is thermodynamically-sound monetary energy.
Let’s now dissect Munger’s arguments:
Munger: “Nor do I like just shoveling out a few extra billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air.”
It is an interesting point, at least psychologically, but if we consider that every worthwhile invention started “out of thin air,” as an idea inside someone’s brain, we realize that it holds no ground. To give an example, the Wright brothers had first to imagine an airplane in their minds, “out of thin air,” as Munger says, before getting down to actually building it. Moreover, those billions and billions of dollars are not exactly going to the creator of bitcoin. Whoever buys bitcoin is in effect buying a piece of the Bitcoin network, i.e., a piece of finite blockchain property, and that piece will belong to the buyer and only the buyer as soon as he acquires it. The earlier adopters become wealthier as a side-effect of a growing adoption of the asset, but the positive civilizational event here is the radical optimization of wealth flows, as summarized above.
If Munger perhaps meant that one bitcoin can be easily created, or replicated, then that’s not true either. It costs, by design, a significant amount of energy to mine (i.e., to create) a single bitcoin. The side effect of this mining mechanic is that it incentivizes us to put to use lots of waste energy and also to repurpose power infrastructure. This is of course another excellent contribution to civilization.
Munger: “I hate the bitcoin success and I don’t welcome a currency that’s useful to kidnappers and extortionists.”
The thing with this line of reasoning is that it is equivalent to saying “I hate the success of knives and I don’t welcome a tool that’s useful to criminals.” But what if I told you that you can cut food, skin animals and help build an entire civilization with knives? Or like saying: “I hate fire because there are pyromaniacs.” But what if I told you that the “invention” of fire was practically the point at which human beings diverged from mere animals?
Not to mention that the moment regulation is tightened, criminals using bitcoin won’t be very bright: the ledger is public, and all transactions are tracked. As regulation and AML/KYC rules start being enforced (on exchanges, and perhaps even on wallets), criminality driven by blockchain tech should gradually vanish. Good old plain cash, i.e. physical cash, is way more difficult to track. Why would a drug dealer, for example, accept bitcoin in his regulated, IRS-tracked wallet? Under such a regulatory scenario, in which the anonymity of bitcoin holders is non-existent to authorities, criminal activity driven by bitcoin transactions would hardly survive.
Sure, the criminals might create their own black-market of wallets and marketplaces, but as soon as a criminal wallet connected with a regulated, IRS-tracked wallet, it would sound an alarm. The “digital asset black-market” would consequently short-circuit itself from the economy–the criminal wouldn’t be able to use the wealth in his criminal wallet on anything other than untracked, criminal goods and services. Whereas now, the money, i.e. the physical cash, the criminal makes on the black-market can flow back into supermarkets, bars, restaurants, etc. and the criminal can effectively make a living out of crime.
In fact, the smartest anarchists are against bitcoin’s wide adoption, too, because they recognize it can lead to a society where your every move is tracked. So it follows that criminals, too, should be against it. If bitcoin works at the moment for them, this is because we are still early in its adoption and there is practically no regulation. After all, we are talking about replacing your physical, untracked wallet, with a digital, tracked wallet. How could crime prosper under these circumstances? Only through extremely organized crime and/or with government help.
When the first airplane the Wright brothers built crashed, there were guys laughing at the brothers. When the first monkeys burned themselves with fire, there were other monkeys laughing at them. They probably remained monkeys back then. As for you… Will you remain one now?
“This is a good lesson for anyone: the ability to take criticism constructively and learn from it.” — Charlie Munger
This is a guest post by Bernardo Filipe. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
This is an opinion editorial by Hector Alvero, a Bitcoin educator who serves as co-host of the Broward County Bitcoiners meetup.
For most of us, walking the path of our individual Bitcoin journey has changed us in profound ways. We look more toward the future by improving our health, creating closer connections with those we care about (or reconnecting with them), and engaging in activities that represent our Bitcoin values. If you are looking for an activity that embodies these values in a single weird and wonderful place look no further than pickleball, the Bitcoin of sports.
If you just said, “What the heck is pickleball?” you are in the right place. Allow me to help you take your first steps down the pickleball rabbit hole and take you from no-pickler to new-pickler. If you already play, then this article might help you better understand why the sport feels like such a natural extension of who we are as Bitcoiners.
Origin Story
Like Bitcoin, pickleball combines existing equipment (technologies) from other sports and puts them together in a completely new way to create something entirely different. Pickleball was created in 1965 by Joel Pritchard, Bill Bell and Barney McCallum in Bainbridge Island, Washington. The three dads were trying to find something fun for their families to do during a summer vacation. They didn’t have a complete set of sports equipment available, so instead they took the best parts of what they had and collaborated with the kids to develop the rules for the game so that everyone would want to play (consensus mechanism).
Pickleball combines solid paddles like in paddle ball or ping pong, but in a size and shape more like racquetball racquets. It uses a net from badminton lowered to hip level like in tennis. The ball is plastic, much like the ones you might have used to play backyard baseball as a kid. The court is adapted from badminton, and the rules pull from multiple racquet sports and volleyball.
Even the name of the sport is shrouded in a bit of mystery, with Joan Pritchard saying they named it pickleball after the pickle boat in crew (the last boat to finish a race) because the oarsmen for the pickle boat are often chosen from the leftovers of other boats. Others believe the sport was named after the family dog, Pickles, who would dutifully retrieve the ball when it rolled off the court, although the Pritchards claim the dog came after and they named the dog after the sport (USA Pickleball).
Low Time Preference
One of the most valuable lessons Bitcoin teaches us is to prioritize the future over the present as we distance ourselves from the fiat world. Our time preference lowers, we stop seeking immediate gratification, and we learn the value of patience. Patience also happens to be the fundamental skill in pickleball. Success in pickleball is not about how many winners you can hit, but rather about how many points you don’t lose by making mistakes. Instead of constantly taking aggressive shots (trading), pickleball encourages patience (HODLing) and consistently executing basic shots (DCA) until the right moment arrives when the odds of winning the point are heavily in your favor. And when it does … Smash (BTFD)!
Even though the vernacular is different, you will find a lot of overlap in the languages of Bitcoin and pickleball. Below is a short sample of phrases that translate between the two. I welcome those of you who are Bitcoiners and picklers to add to the list!
Pickleball Lingo
Bitcoin Lingo
Patience
Low time preference
Stay in the point
Time in the market beats timing the market
Focus on the basics/Respect the net
HODL, DCA, BTFD
Protect yourself/Stay paddle ready
Hold your own keys, don’t use leverage
Let your opponent make the mistake
Let the debt-based fiat system collapse itself
Play within yourself
Stay humble, stack sats
Hard To Grok
Pickleball is easy to dismiss at first because, like Bitcoin, it is a little different. The rules are a little different, the equipment is a little different, and the people involved are a little different. But, like Bitcoin, once you experience the sport firsthand you realize it isn’t just different … it’s better. More importantly, it is better because it is different, and it is those differences that take new players on that familiar journey from confusion to curiosity to commitment. Players learn that playing good pickleball is counterintuitive to other sports, much like learning the fundamentals of Bitcoin is different from what we are taught about money and economics. At first, you think you should be aggressive, but then you learn to be patient. You think you should attack, but then you learn defending is more powerful. You think it will be easy, but then you learn that mastery can take a lifetime.
I was introduced to pickleball in late 2015 by Dave Leach (coincidentally, the same year I first heard about Bitcoin). Our sons were in the same Boy Scout troop and had become good friends. Dave tried explaining the game to me one night at a troop meeting. I didn’t really get it. To me, it just sounded like a weird form of mini-tennis. I listened politely and thought it was interesting, but never went out to play and forgot about it. Luckily, he kept encouraging me to give it a try and in early 2016 I went to the courts for the first time. I was instantly hooked. Like experiencing the rush of completing that first peer-to-peer transaction or holding your own keys for the first time, pickleball reels you in by perfectly balancing simplicity and challenge. This turned out to be about two months before I bought my first Bitcoin. Since then, I’ve been able to return Dave’s favor by introducing him to Bitcoin.
Accessible And Challenging
It doesn’t take much to get started in pickleball; all you need is a paddle, a ball, a court, and another player. With a couple of sessions of basic information and practice, you can go from “I’ve never played pickleball,” to enjoying fun games and holding your own on the court. However, taking the steps to learn the necessary skills to go from capable player to champion can take a lifetime. This is much like when you download a wallet and receive your first bitcoin while holding your own keys. From that moment you are a sovereign Bitcoiner, but taking the next steps to fully understand proper custody, privacy, and succession planning (not to mention economics, philosophy, etc.) can keep you engaged and intellectually challenged forever.
On your pickleball journey you will find that the biggest strides forward in your game often happen during the passive work you do off the court. After a game, you’ll have an a-ha moment like “I’m popping the ball up because I’m gripping the paddle too tightly near the net,” or, “With each step toward the kitchen, I should lessen my grip pressure by 10%.” The same thing happens to us as Bitcoiners. We make huge strides in our thinking when reading a non-Bitcoin article or having a non-Bitcoin conversation. We hear a news story about the Canadian truckers or about the failing Japanese yen and realize “This is the use case for Bitcoin.”
Proof-Of-Work
Pickleball attracts players from other sports like tennis, ping pong and racquetball. They often arrive with an “I’m new to pickleball and I’m here to fix it,” disposition. They assume their years of experience and skill building in other sports will immediately translate into dominance in this apparently easy pickleball thing. They quickly find out, usually by repeatedly losing games to more experienced players, that they must put in the necessary time and work to develop the specific skills and strategies that translate into success in pickleball. To paraphrase Max Keiser, “You don’t change pickleball … pickleball changes you.” Think it’s easy to be world class in pickleball? Check out this point and think again.
Dare To Be Different
Picklers are used to being snickered at by people that play more established racquet sports like tennis, racquetball, and squash (TradFi). They dismiss us and think “Aww, look at those pickleball players … aren’t they cute? It’s too bad they can’t play a real sport.” Then their courts get repurposed to become pickleball courts and they think “Maybe I should try it.” This is much like when normies think “Aww, look at those Bitcoiners … aren’t they cute? It’s too bad they don’t understand real money.” Then Bitcoin becomes the best performing asset in history, and they think “Maybe I should get some.”
Much like Bitcoiners proudly wear shirts that say “Rules not rulers” and “∞/21M”, picklers proudly and unapologetically declare themselves as such by wearing merch with pickleball insider jargon like “Stay out of the kitchen!” and “I might have a dinking problem.”
Pickleball players come from every type of political, religious, and cultural background. Like Bitcoiners, those differences sometimes come out in spirited discussions on and off the court. In the end, these differences are usually overshadowed by the common interest they share and their passion for the sport they love. What they share is more important than where they disagree, and it might even help them appreciate their differences a bit more.
Inclusive
Pickleball welcomes anyone and everyone to learn and enjoy the sport. Whether you are young or old, tall or short, rich or poor, walking on your feet or rolling on wheels, pickleball welcomes you and says “You can join this network. You can participate, benefit from, and contribute to this community.”
Pickleball not only accepts anyone and everyone, but it also encourages players of all types to play together. It is not uncommon to see high level players helping newbies, retirees playing against teenagers (and beating them), and children beating their parents.
Pickleball is also financially inclusive; it doesn’t take a lot of money to start playing. You can buy a pair of starter paddles for $20-$30. If you can’t afford that, just show up at a local court and I guarantee someone with an extra paddle will loan it to you, teach you the rules, play with you, and invite you back.
Passion
There is no passion like that of a Bitcoiner who has fully gone down the rabbit hole, except possibly for someone that has been bitten by the pickleball bug. See if any of this sounds familiar:
They watch videos, match replays, read articles and listen to anyone that can teach them about the game.
They constantly tell their friends how the game is fun, challenging and energizing.
They talk about how their physical, mental and social lives have been improved by the game.
They travel far and wide to find courts and instruction. Anything to be able to play more and improve.
They say pickleball is life.
They play and play and they can’t get enough. You only need to hear the collective groans of 20+ people when the court lights shut off at 10 p.m. to know that pickleball is more than just another form of exercise.
Gradually, Then Suddenly
Parker Lewis’s perfectly named series has taught us that change happens gradually, then suddenly. Pickleball has grown from summer vacation family pastime to the fastest growing sport in the United States. Tennis courts, roller hockey rinks, and even basketball courts are being converted to pickleball courts everywhere, and demand is moving up and to the right. Multiple professional leagues have been started, with teams recently being formed by major celebrities like Lebron James and Tom Brady (Golden). Major networks are starting to pick up coverage of pickleball events, like the Celebrity Pickleball Challenge that recently aired on CBS (Webb). Venues for incorporating pickleball into other industries are springing up, like Chicken and Pickle and The Pickle Bar. Pickleball clubs and meetups are starting up everywhere and growing fast. Even Michael Saylor has a court at his house. The FOMO is real.
Community
No matter where you are from or where you are, if you meet a fellow pickleball player you often become fast friends. There is simply an understanding among players that if you share a love for pickleball you will likely have enough in common to get along. I have met and played with people from all over the world. Even in situations where we didn’t speak the same language, we could still communicate on the court and have a great time. Like Bitcoiners, pickleball players are givers. They freely give their time, their knowledge, and their help to anyone who wants to learn the game or improve their play.
One of the things I love most about both the Bitcoin and pickleball communities is that its stars and celebrities are approachable (rules, not rulers). Max Keiser, Cory Klippsten, and Marty Bent will gladly have real conversations with plebs like me at a conference, meetup, or event. Likewise, world class players like Steve Kennedy, Kyle Yates, and Anna Leigh Waters will play pickup games with amateurs like me and shoot the breeze about the latest happenings in the pickleball world.
Conclusion
Luckily, unlike Neo, you don’t have to choose between the orange and the yellow pill. You can take both, and by doing so discover a new world that embraces the same values that make our Bitcoin community so special. You will also find a whole new group of precoiners to potentially orange-pill. So, pick up a paddle and head to a pickleball court near you and remember … stay humble, stack sats and respect the net!
Additional Info / Resources:
To find pickleball courts in your area, click here.
Coming to Bitcoin 2023 in Miami? Be on the lookout for satellite pickleball event information, including a pre-conference clinic to be hosted by world class professional players and coaches. Visit the conference website for more info about pickleball and other satellite events.
Want to see a few more great pickleball points? click here.
To learn more about pickleball’s origin story, click here.
This is a guest post by Hector Alvero. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine
NEW YORK, Dec 20 (IPS) – Promoting innovation and technology to promote inclusive development means using new technologies to enhance equal access to services, eliminate discrimination, increase transparency, and create a stable and just future for all – especially the most vulnerable and marginalized.
Obviously, the rule of law is a key driver of inclusive, equitable, and sustainable development, and empowers people from all strata of life to seek and obtain justice. Doing more with less is posing a challenge here. We are operating in an increasingly connected yet complex global and national settings and fiscally fragile environment.
Our traditional structures, systems and processes are proving to be inadequate to deal with new developmental challenges, pandemics, inaccessibility and exclusions, conflicts, and humanitarian crisis. Our governance and justice systems are not the most transparent and data friendly domain. Bringing that information to light is no easy task.
Barriers to Governance and Rule of Law
As indicated before, there are many barriers to accessing public services and ensuring accessible public health, rule of law, especially where there are high levels of poverty, marginalization, and insecurity. Governance institutions – formal and informal – may be biased or discriminatory. Public governance systems may be ineffective, slow, and untrustworthy.
In the last 3 years of pandemic, we also realized our public health system is often crippled by lack of investment, inclusive and accessible initiatives, and innovation. Discriminatory decision making and exclusivity further complicated the situation at all levels. People may lack knowledge about their rights.
Often legal assistance and consumer protection are out of reach, leaving people with little recourse to formal mechanisms for protection and empowerment. There may be a culture of impunity for criminal acts, unacceptable level of tolerance for exclusionary practices.
Other discriminations, injustices, and abuses in the family, or through deprivation and labour exploitation, may go unaddressed. Despite all these, more can be done to ensure that they benefit from the inclusive governance and public health work, and, rule of law practices, which expand their opportunities and choices.
Quest for New Ideas …
Despite all these, more can be done to ensure that the most vulnerable and disadvantaged groups benefit from inclusive public health, legal empowerment, and access to justice, which expand their opportunities and choices.
We need fresh ideas, resources, and unconventional ways of collecting and analyzing data, such as using micro-narratives or innovative, accessible public hearings, targeted consultations, to complement traditional mechanisms including surveys. But innovation is rapidly becoming the new buzzword, so I would be careful in applying it here:
• Innovation is not cost-free and takes time so it should be mainstreamed:
• Innovation is both science and arts. And it should be seen as a standalone practice. one of the biggest problems that public sector innovation faces today is that governments have de facto created a ‘class of innovators,’ rather than making innovation an inclusive process that is open to anyone who has the motivation and capacity to influence change. This must change.
• Repackaging or reproduction is not innovation unless it caters to the specific needs of vulnerable and marginalized communities which are not supported by existing mechanisms and services.
• What is innovative in Bangladesh, Turkey, and Tanzania may not be so in India, Turkmenistan, Senegal, or Mexico;
• Big data is important but harnessing it for the right cause should be central consideration. Linking it with better evidence base is of critical significance. The COVID-19 challenges amply demonstrated it.
• Going beyond social networking is key – while Facebook, Twitter and other Social Media outlets play an admirable role in connecting people, these are not enough to solving a protracted problem and sustaining a solution. We must also be mindful of the recent trend of using social media to silence public defenders, journalists, and whistle blowers. The twitter is a case in point (December 2022).
• Innovative ideas, while refreshing, need to be pragmatic so that they can be implemented. They mast be part of a solution, not the overall problem.
• Evidence of impact is more important than the novelty factor.
Innovation and New Technologies for Solutions
My own take is that ideas do not need to be always transformational or revolutionary. Our platforms can replicate or even recycle what already works by introducing successful models to new actors and environments.
Even seemingly ordinary things can become innovative in different terms, approaches, or settings. linking inclusion to innovation is not only about looking at how it can advance policies and create better impact for governments, but also about giving people, public servants, and citizens alike, the self-efficacy, power, and freedom to direct change in the way they see necessary. This contributes directly to the making of inclusive development.
New technologies are changing the lives of people around the world. In the same way that they make daily tasks simpler, they can make official and routine interactions with government institutions, service providers easier and can provide innovative solutions to a host of public sector governance, public health, and rule of law challenges.
Technology has an immense untapped potential to strengthen inclusive practices for governance including public health governance, and the rule of law. Technological innovation must provide equal access to services, help to eliminate discrimination, and assure more transparency and accountability. They must not be used to silence voices, deny human rights, or create justifications for maladministration, inaccessibility, and exclusions.
As we are approaching 2023 in a few days, let us hope for a more inclusive and diverse public sector governance rooted in human rights values and practices.
Dr. A.H. Monjurul Kabir, currently UN System Coordination Adviser and Global Team Leader for Gender Equality, Disability Inclusion/Intersectionality at UN Women HQ in New York, is a thought leader, political scientist and senior policy and legal analyst on global issues and regional trends. For policy and academic purpose, he can be contacted at [email protected]. He can be followed in twitter at mkabir2011
This is an opinion editorial by Josef Tětek, the Trezor brand ambassador for SatoshiLabs.
The inaugural Africa Bitcoin Conference (ABC) took place earlier this month in Accra, Ghana. Some events in your life are so impactful that you find it hard to get back to a day-to-day reality after you go through them. My visit to this event was one such experience.
Images throughout courtesy of official ABC photographer Nana Twum.
Pre-Conference Orange Pilling On The Beach
For some time now, I’ve been an avid fan of Alex Gladstein and his perception of Bitcoin as a tool for empowering the unprivileged, the exploited and the suppressed. This spring, I gulped down his new book called “Check Your Financial Privilege,” and a few weeks later I had the good fortune to visit his organization’s Oslo Freedom Forum. But even though I understood rationally that Bitcoin is a necessity for billions around the world, I never really experienced adoption from this perspective, and never met the very people for whom Bitcoin can be a life preserver. That changed for me a few weeks ago in Ghana.
Curiously, the most eye-opening thing for me in terms of local Bitcoin adoption wasn’t the conference as such, but rather, it was interactions with ordinary Ghanaians in the city of Accra, most of whom learned about Bitcoin for the first time from us, the conference goers.
Several other Bitcoiners and I, including Hermann Vivier (the organizer behind the south-African circular economy project Bitcoin Ekasi) visited the local beach a day before the conference began, and spent the whole afternoon discussing Bitcoin with locals. What we found out was that Bitcoin becomes a very real thing once the locals are shown that they can receive value instantly, without any registration, and immediately spend it on airtime via Bitrefill. Whoever we talked to — fishermen, souvenir merchants, taxi drivers, artists — we witnessed the same cognitive process: from disregard and suspicion to excitement, within minutes. All that was required was to showcase a real-life immediate use for Bitcoin, and it all clicked.
Now, this might sound trivial to some readers, but the fact is that in many places, there is no easy way to conduct digital payments. Western Bitcoiners are mostly used to viewing bitcoin as a long-term store of value — which is, of course, a valuable use case everywhere around the globe — but in many countries, bitcoin serves as an incredible medium of exchange as well. And often, the only thing that is missing is knowledge about the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Bitcoin: The Pan-African Hope
One theme that resounded throughout the three-day conference was the notion that Bitcoin can serve as a tool of liberation from the post-colonial systems of control in the form of the IMF, World Bank, the CFA franc system and similar constraints.
Gladstein explained in his keynote the precise nature of the debt slavery that most of the African nations find themselves in, with the IMF and World Bank happily lending billions of dollars to dictators, while it’s the citizens who are later forced to repay these debts, even though the loans only served to fill up the personal coffers of the kleptocratic dictators. Gladstein’s talk was based on his latest essay for Bitcoin Magazine, where he outlines the frustrating details of the IMF/WB exploitation scheme.
Africa may very well be the continent most damaged by fiat money. Fourteen countries still have their currency managed by the French government (the CFA franc regime), two countries are currently experiencing inflation near or over 100% (Zimbabwe and Sudan), almost half of the African countries face inflation higher than 10%, and cross-border payments are often expensive or impossible. Many speakers pointed out that Bitcoin is the only viable way out, and the only practical chance for uniting the continent.
Ray Youssef of Paxful in a fireside chat with Farida Nabourema: Bitcoin has the potential to unite the 54 countries of Africa and pave the way to tremendous prosperity.
The pan-African nature of Bitcoin was touched upon often: in the many talks, panel discussions and off-stage networking — it didn’t really seem to matter which country the particular speaker was from; Bitcoin was generally understood as a pan-African phenomenon.
On the other hand, the lessons learned from Bitcoin adoption on the African continent are invaluable to Bitcoin itself and its potential for hyperbitcoinization — in Africa, Bitcoin is tested to its very limits: many countries are openly hostile to Bitcoin, the infrastructure of all kinds is often unreliable, people are often lured into bitcoin affinity scams; yet the adoption is following an exponential curve.
Obi Nwosu of Fedi summed up the perspective of many attendees in his keynote, when he stated that “Africa wins with Bitcoin. And Bitcoin wins with Africa.”
A strong theme throughout the conference was the necessity of African Bitcoiners being the ones to build tools for Africa, the reason being that developers from the Western world often have an understandable blind spot for the needs and circumstances of Africans.
A prime example is this year’s rollout of Machankura, a service that makes Lightning Network payments accessible on feature phones. Machankura is being developed by Kgothatso Ngako, a programmer from South Africa, where feature phones are still widespread (as is the case in most other African countries). It’s hard to fathom Machankura being developed and adopted in Europe or the U.S., since people in these regions simply do not have the need to use Lightning on feature phones; but in Africa, it’s a game-changer for millions.
A panel on African startups. Left to right: Tochi Onyia (Paxful), Ola Atose (KoinKoin), Kgothatso Ngako (Machankura), Osideinde Adewale (Bitnob).
A network of Bitcoin tool builders is expanding in Africa. Over the past several years, education and grant programs such as Btrust and Qala have emerged, and more and more developers from the African continent are able to work on Bitcoin full time, either through grants or by finding employment in many of the African Bitcoin startups.
Abubakar Nur Khalil (Btrust, Qala) and Okjodom (Fedimint) discussing what solutions African Bitcoin developers are focusing on.
Obstacles On The Road To Africa’s Hyperbitcoinization
The exploding Bitcoin adoption in Africa has had its fair share of problems as well.
First: the infrastructure. As one of the speakers aptly put it: “Every Ghanaian knows — when it rains, the internet goes down.” The good news is that Africans are actively working on alleviating these problems; one of the interesting projects featured at the conference was Gridless, a bitcoin mining company that leverages stranded energy, such as local hydro power plants that are not connected to the national grid. During the course of the conference, a fresh $2 million investment into Gridless was announced, helping the project expand beyond Kenya, its home country.
A second obstacle is that scams and exploitative schemes are widespread. A prime example is Worldcoin. Some time ago, the global Bitcoin community was outraged by this project, which onboards new users via airdropping tokens in exchange for a retina scan. After the initial wave of disapproval, things went quiet and the general impression was that Worldcoin was abandoned. To my surprise, I found out that the project is very much alive and the eye-scanning orbs are being deployed across the African continent. Bitcoiners worldwide have a duty to shine light on such disgusting data-harvesting experiments, and ensure that Africans are well-informed about the difference between Bitcoin and everything else.
Third: corporate conquest. It would do no good for the African continent to get rid of the neo-colonial monetary schemes such as the CFA system, only to be replaced with their corporate equivalents. From several discussions, I understand that Binance and other major exchanges are muddying the waters about what it means to actually hold bitcoin, discouraging newcomers from self custody, and instead promoting exchange accounts as the only option. The other alarming area of a corporate conquest is the widespread reliance on WhatsApp; as one Twitter commenter recently stated, WhatsApp is “Africa’s e-mail.” This should be a reminder that education efforts should focus not only on Vitcoin and self custody, but also on the likes of Signal, encrypted email, password managers, VPNs and other similar tools of digital empowerment.
All Eyes On Africa
The Africa Bitcoin Conference was hands down one of the most inspiring events I’ve been to. Everyone I met — the entrepreneurs, the human rights activists, the circular community builders, the developers — was full of energy to orange pill the African continent. But their excitement wasn’t naive and didn’t stem from any kind of ideology or heterodox economic school; on the contrary, theirs was a very practical approach. Africa has its fair share of problems, and Bitcoin can help fix them — if we do things correctly.
Many speakers throughout the conference reminded us of the crucial ingredient of the Bitcoin revolution: the people. If ordinary people can’t understand and easily use the technology to alleviate their day-to-day problems, Bitcoin won’t get too far. Bitcoin doesn’t need to onboard politicians and central bankers, but rather taxi drivers and street food vendors. Thankfully, there are many grassroots communities emerging on the continent, spearheading the bottom-up adoption of the orange coin. To name just a few, there are Bitcoin Ekasi, Bitcoin Mountain, Bitcoin Cowries, Bitcoin Village, Exonumia and DigiOats. And many more are emerging.
Personally, I can’t wait for another chance to visit a Bitcoin conference on the African continent, the optimism for a better future is simply unmatched. The next upcoming conference seems to be the Nigeria Bitcoin Conference, happening in March. Since Nigeria has one of the most orange-pilled populations worldwide, I’m sure it will also be a wild, unforgettable experience.
Note: live streams from day two and three of the Africa Bitcoin Conference are available at the conference YouTube channel.
This is a guest post by Josef Tětek. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
