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  • Tech’s longtime highfliers are growing up by getting smaller

    Tech’s longtime highfliers are growing up by getting smaller

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    Visitors take photos in front of the Meta sign at its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, December 29, 2022.

    Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    Technology companies are learning an old lesson from Wall Street: maturing means shrinking.

    Meta and Amazon saw their shares spike on Friday following their fourth-quarter earnings reports. While revenue for both topped estimates, the story for investors is that they’re showing their ability to do more with less, an alluring equation for shareholders.

    There’s also a recognition that investors value cash, in many cases, above all else. The tech industry has long preferred to reinvest excess cash back into growth, ramping up hiring and experimenting with the next big thing. But following a year of hefty layoffs and capital preservation, Meta on Thursday announced that, for the first time, it will pay a quarterly dividend of 50 cents per share, while also authorizing an additional $50 billion stock repurchase plan.

    “The key with these companies is really that they’re able to reinvent themselves,” said Daniel Flax, an analyst at Neuberger Berman, in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. They “continue to invest for the future and play offense while at the same time manage expenses in this tough environment,” he said.

    Amazon is less aggressively moving to send cash to shareholders, but the topic is certainly being discussed. The company instituted a $10 billion buyback program in 2022 and hasn’t announced anything since. On Thursday’s earnings call, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak asked about plans for additional capital returns.

    “Just really excited to actually have that question,” finance chief Brian Olsavsky said in response. “No one has asked me that in three years.”

    Olsavsky added that “we do debate and discuss capital structure policies annually or more often,” but said the company doesn’t have anything to announce. “We’re glad to have the better liquidity at the end of 2023 and we’re going to try to continue to build that,” he said.

    After years of seemingly unfettered growth, the biggest internet companies in the world are firmly into a new era. They’re still out hunting for the best technical talent, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, but headcount growth is measured. Staffing up in certain parts of the business likely means scaling back elsewhere.

    ‘Playing to win’

    For example, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg told investors that when it comes to AI, “We’re playing to win here and I expect us to continue investing aggressively in this area in order to build the most advanced clusters.”

    Later on the call, when asked about expanding headcount, Zuckerberg said new hiring will be “relatively minimal compared to what we would have done historically,” adding that, “I kind of want to keep things lean.” 

    Olsavsky said most teams at Amazon are “looking to hold the line on headcount, perhaps go down as we can drive efficiencies in the size of our business.”

    The story is playing out across Silicon Valley. January was the busiest month for tech job cuts since March, according to the website Layoffs.fyi, with almost 31,000 layoffs at 118 companies. Amazon and Alphabet added to their 2023 job cuts with more layoffs last month, as did Microsoft, which eliminated 1,900 roles in its gaming unit shortly after closing the acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

    SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 23: XBOX CEO Phil Spencer arrives at federal court on June 23, 2023 in San Francisco, California. Top executives from Microsoft and Activision/Blizzard will be testifying during a five day hearing against the FTC to determine the fate of a $68.7B merger of the two companies. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Downsizing this week hit the cloud software market, where Okta announced it was cutting about 400 jobs, or 7% of its staff, and Zoom confirmed it was eliminating less than 2% of its workforce, amounting to close to 150 positions. Zuora announced a plan to cut 8% of jobs, or almost 125 positions based on the most recent headcount figures.

    Evan Sohn, chairman of Recruiter.com, called it a “very confusing job market.” Last year, tech companies were responding to dramatically changing market conditions — soaring inflation, rising interest rates, rotation out of risk — after an extended bull market. Meta slashed over 20,000 jobs in 2023, Amazon laid off more than 27,000 people, And Alphabet cut over 12,000 positions.

    The economy is in a very different place today. Growth is back at a healthy clip, inflation appears under control and the Federal Reserve is indicating rate cuts are on the horizon this year. Unemployment held at 3.7% in January, down from 6.4% three years earlier, when the economy was just opening up from pandemic lockdowns. And nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. 

    Tech stocks are booming, with Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft all at or near record levels.

    But the downsizing in the industry continues.

    “Companies are still in the cleanup from ’23,” Sohn told CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange” this week. “There could be a flipping of skills, different skills necessary to really handle the new world of 2024.”

    Recent layoffs are fueled by changing skills and push for AI, says Recruiter.com's Evan Sohn

    Wall Street is rewarding tech companies for improved discipline and cash distribution, but it raises the question about where they can turn for significant growth. Other than Nvidia, which had a banner 2023 due to soaring demand for its AI chips, none of the other mega-cap tech companies have been growing at their historic averages.

    Even Meta’s better-than-expected 25% growth for the fourth quarter is a bit misleading, because the comparable number a year ago was depressed due to a slowing digital advertising market and Apple’s iOS update, which made it harder to target ads. Finance chief Susan Li reminded analysts on Thursday that as 2024 progresses, the company will be “lapping periods of increasingly strong demand.”

    By late this year, analysts are projecting growth at Meta will be back down to the low teens at best. Growth estimates for Amazon and Alphabet are even lower, a good indication that calls for capital allocation measures may only get louder.

    Ben Barringer, technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC that Meta’s decision to pay a dividend was a “symbolic moment” in that regard.

    “Mark Zuckerberg is showing that he wants to bring shareholders along with him and is highlighting that Meta is now a mature, grown-up business,” Barringer said.

    — CNBC’s Annie Palmer contributed to this report

    WATCH: Meta’s Q4 report suggests it’s putting Nvidia’s chips to great use

    Here's why Rosenblatt raised its price target on Meta

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  • The biggest takeaways from Microsoft’s courtroom showdown with the FTC over Activision Blizzard

    The biggest takeaways from Microsoft’s courtroom showdown with the FTC over Activision Blizzard

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    Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella arrives at the U.S. DIstrict Court for the Northern District of California in San Francisco on June 28, 2023.

    Philip Pacheco | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Microsoft and its current major acquisition target, video game publisher Activision Blizzard, have wrapped up their five days in court in San Francisco as the Federal Trade Commission sought to stop the deal from closing, but not without several fascinating facts coming to light.

    And not only about games. Information on Microsoft’s business ambitions, its process for okaying acquisitions, and its most critical rivals in cybersecurity was revealed as part of the hearing process, thanks to documents and testimony from executives. Large releases like this don’t happen every day, and in the past several years Microsoft has avoided prominent trials that can result in several notable disclosures at once.

    The FTC had originally planned to bring its case against the deal before an administrative law judge in August but then opted to seek a preliminary injunction in federal court as the agency became worried that Microsoft would try to close, even though some jurisdictions had not cleared the purchase.

    In addition to regulators in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, Sony also opposes the deal. Its PlayStation 5 console competes with the Xbox Series S and X consoles, and the company has said that anticompetitive effects would arise if Microsoft were to take control of Activision Blizzard.

    Here’s a rundown of notable facts that have trickled out in recent days and are still lingering after both parties presented their closing arguments on Thursday.

    • Mobile, mobile, mobile. The impulse to expand Microsoft’s gaming business on mobile devices at least in part inspired the Activision acquisition. “It was very imperative to us if we were going to remain [relevant and] grow relevance in the market, we were going to have to find mobile customers for Xbox,” Phil Spencer, Microsoft’s CEO of gaming, said last Friday. Revenue from mobile gaming is growing faster than revenue from gaming on PCs or consoles, and Microsoft executives repeatedly said in the hearings that the company has made little progress on building key mobile gaming content.
    • Several earlier mobile targets. Microsoft considered several other companies before choosing to buy Activision Blizzard, including FarmVille publisher Zynga, Pokemon Go developer Niantic and Japanese digital entertainment mainstays Sega Sammy and Square Enix, according to testimony and documents released in the case.
    • Interest in Asia. While Xbox consoles have a respectable market share in the U.S., they’re less popular in Japan, where Nintendo and Sony rule. A 2019 analysis Microsoft produced for a possible Square Enix bid said that “acquiring Square Enix would provide Gaming with market relevance in a region that currently lacks a meaningful Xbox presence, allowing us to reach more gamers in more geographies.”
    • Valuable incentives. Sony has paid game developers fees to discourage them from shipping games such as “Ghostwire: Tokyo” and “Deathloop” on Xbox, Microsoft executives said. Microsoft pays its own fees, and Spencer said that buying Activision Blizzard would mean Microsoft wouldn’t have to spend as much on incentives.
    • Many games under consideration. One of the more dramatic moments in the five days of hearings was when the FTC’s lead lawyer, James Weingarten, sought to push Spencer to make certain commitments on Microsoft’s part. Weingarten got Spencer to say he would not pull any future Call of Duty game from PlayStation consoles, a statement that was in keeping with what Microsoft has said for months. Then Weingarten went further, asking Spencer to do the same thing with all Activision content. Spencer did not immediately agree. Activision Blizzard publishes many other games besides Call of Duty, such as those in the Diablo and Overwatch franchises, but the bulk of the attention was on Call of Duty. Jim Ryan, CEO of Sony Interactive Entertainment, wasn’t happy with a Microsoft-generated list of Activision Blizzard games that would remain accessible on the PlayStation after the acquisition closes. “Overwatch is there, but Overwatch 2 is not on there, which is the current version of the game,” he said.
    • Microsoft’s long-range ambitions. The FTC managed to get ahold of documents Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella sent to top executives and fellow board members that laid out Microsoft’s financial goals for the current decade. The documents showed that Nadella is aiming for Microsoft to generate $500 billion by the 2030 fiscal year, with at least 10% year-over-year revenue growth. One document said Microsoft’s Security, Compliance, Identity and Management business could reach $100 billion in revenue by the 2030 fiscal year, while the company wants its Teams communication app to reach 1 billion monthly active users by then.
    • Weak hardware access. Spencer said during his testimony that Sony was reluctant to send Microsoft development kits for the PlayStation 5 before its 2020 release, and that prevented Microsoft from optimizing its Minecraft game for Sony’s current console. That put the game at a disadvantage compared with other developers, Spencer said. Ryan, from Sony, explained why his company provides development kits to Microsoft later than it does for other studios. “The commercial risks associated with this knowledge of those feature sets leaking to our principal competitor is not something that we would choose to rely on any contract to enforce,” Ryan said. Gamers can find an older version of Minecraft on the PlayStation 5.
    • Deal threshold. Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, said in written testimony for the hearing that she provides final approval for proposed deals under a certain dollar amount, but Microsoft’s board must sign off on deals valued above $500 million. Microsoft had $104 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of March, and 2022 revenue exceeded $204 billion.
    • Negotiating leverage. Microsoft was determined to ensure that Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty games remain on Xbox for its current generation, which debuted in 2020. Bobby Kotick, Activision Blizzard’s CEO, conveyed that if Microsoft refused to provide a more favorable revenue share than the usual 70-30 split, then the games would not continue to be available, Microsoft executive Sarah Bond said. An FTC lawyer accidentally mentioned that Microsoft agreed to accept 20% instead of the typical 30%.
    • Sony’s altered expectations. In early 2022, two days after Microsoft announced its plan to buy Activision Blizzard, Ryan wrote in an email to another Sony Group executive that he was “pretty sure” Call of Duty would be available on PlayStation consoles for many years. But he appeared to lose confidence in that belief. In videotaped testimony, Ryan said he had “significant concerns” as to whether Call of Duty and other Activision Blizzard games would continue to be available on PlayStation after the transaction.
    • Kotick’s console mistake. Kotick has been in video games for decades, and he fumbled when he looked for the first time at the Nintendo Switch console and decided that it would not be successful. He had been more impressed with Nintendo’s earlier Wii console. The Switch became the third best-selling console of all time. When an FTC lawyer asked Kotick if Activision Blizzard would produce a Call of Duty game for a future Nintendo console, he said, “We missed out on the opportunity for the past generation of Switch, so I would like to think we would be able to do that, but we’d have to look.”
    • Game Pass opposition. Kotick made it clear that while Activision Blizzard has experimented with putting games in subscription libraries, he didn’t think they would lead to “sustainable long-term business.” He said he considered putting games on Game Pass in 2020 during negotiations with Microsoft over Activision Blizzard’s most recent licensing agreement, but ultimately the company decided not to go forward with it, he said. He couldn’t imagine anyone offering commercial terms that would be favorable, he said.
    • Whither Amazon? Weingarten pointed out that while Microsoft agreed to provide Call of Duty to small cloud gaming players such as Boosteroid and Ubitus, it has not done the same with Amazon, which fields the Luna cloud gaming service. Amazon is among Microsoft’s most prominent competitors in the cloud-computing business.
    • Cloud flop. Microsoft has sought to supplement PC and console gaming with a cloud-based streaming option, which is included with the Game Pass Ultimate service, along with a library of games to download and play for a monthly fee. Microsoft began testing cloud gaming with consumers in 2019. Bond testified that gamers mainly use the cloud option not with their phones but with their consoles, while they wait for downloads to finish. At that point, they switch to playing games locally, she said. The cloud gaming option is not growing and is unprofitable, Tim Stuart, finance chief for Microsoft’s Xbox division, said during his testimony. “The feedback to date is that it’s just not good enough as a — you know, definitely as a substitute to any of the current platforms,” Nadella said. “But you know, it can break through at some point, on something new, but it’s not yet happened, both on the economics as well as the content side.”
    • Sizing up cloud infrastructure. The big-picture memos from Nadella contained figures for the scale of various businesses across Microsoft, and one is more important than the others for the company’s investors. Perhaps the most closely tracked number in Microsoft’s earnings report after revenue and earnings is the growth of the Azure public cloud, because the software maker doesn’t disclose Azure revenue in dollars. One of the Nadella memos said Microsoft’s “infrastructure” revenue in the 2022 fiscal year was $34 billion. The tally was “very close to our estimates,” Bernstein Research analysts led by Mark Moerdler, with the equivalent of a buy rating on Microsoft stock, said in a Thursday note.
    • Critical security rivals. One of the documents that became publicly available as part of the hearing identified four security companies that Microsoft used to track its sprawling cybersecurity operation. The results contributed to a scorecard to assess performance among Microsoft’s top executives. Scorecard metrics included the percentage of “managed accounts with at least one Okta detection,” the percentage of “commercial Windows 10/11 MAD [monthly active devices] that have CrowdStrike components detected,” the percentage of “mail recipients that are protected by Proofpoint,” and percentage of “Commercial Windows 10/11 MAD that have Symantec DLP components detected.”
    • Exclusive exploration. Microsoft has argued that it would keep Call of Duty on PlayStation and make games in that franchise available on multiple cloud streaming services for a decade. “The acquisition’s strategic rationale and financial valuation are both aligned toward making Activision games more widely available, not less,” Hood said in written testimony. But on the fifth and final day of hearings, the FTC succeeded in getting witnesses to show that Microsoft did evaluate ways of trying to reduce the availability of Activision Blizzard content on the Sony PlayStation. Stuart confirmed that in preparation for a Microsoft board meeting, executives examined a scenario of lower sales of Activision Blizzard games on the PlayStation and ways of making up for the shortfall with sales of more Xbox consoles and Game Pass subscriptions.

    Activision Blizzard and Microsoft have agreed to terminate the deal if it’s not done by July 18. District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley said on Thursday that she isn’t sure when she’ll decide on the preliminary injunction. “But obviously, I’m mindful,” she said.

    WATCH: Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella to testify today

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  • What Cramer is watching Thursday — OPEC+ surprise, Corona beer maker beat, Costco’s sales

    What Cramer is watching Thursday — OPEC+ surprise, Corona beer maker beat, Costco’s sales

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    OPEC+'s 2 million barrels-per-day oil production cut to boost prices. U.S. delivers an angry rebuke.

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