Tag: Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Sharing compact EVs can avert battery crisis
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Newswise — Most global scenarios and governmental targets for decarbonizing the transport sector consider battery-powered electric vehicles as a main part of the solution. Enormous amounts of raw materials are needed to build enough batteries and ensure a transition to low-emission vehicles.

Access to lithium is critical, as it is used in all types of EV batteries.

Future demand needs to decrease

“It seems very likely we’ll have a shortage. The key lies in the demand. The demand needs to decrease to avoid long-term supply problems,” says Fernando Aguilar Lopez, a PhD candidate at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology’s (NTNU) Department of Energy and Process Engineering.

There are huge deposits of this super-light, silver-white substance around the world. The problem is that it is not being mined fast enough to keep up with demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for electric vehicles.

As a result, we may face supply bottlenecks that could last for decades.

Meet MATILDA — A model for supply scenarios

Fernando Aguilar Lopez is an expert in analysing global material flows. This means he studies raw materials cycles from extraction to production, use, and scrapping. He, postdoc Romain Billy and Professor Daniel B. Müller have developed a material flow analysis model named MATILDA (MATerIaL Demand and Availability). The model was recently introduced in the Journal “Resources, Conservation & Recycling.”

The study investigates strategies to manage resource use in EV batteries. MATILDA helps to understand more of the critical factors affecting resource supply. Also, the model calculates how various interventions could mitigate the demand.

Most comprehensive model

“Society urgently needs systemic approaches for addressing supply problems,” Müller said.

MATILDA is the most comprehensive model to date for battery raw materials in the global vehicle fleet. Tools such as this can play a crucial role for industry and policy makers to develop strategies to ensure secure and resilient critical raw materials supply chains, Müller said.

Explored more than 8 000 scenarios

The NTNU researchers have explored more than 8 000 scenarios to understand the key drivers of material use.

Reading this on your laptop and want to explore the details? Check out BATMAN’s interactive visualization tool, where you can build your own scenario and check the resource use for the nine materials the researchers have investigated. http://129.241.153.168:8051/

This assessment showed that profound social and lifestyle changes are the most efficient measures to reduce material supply risks.

More sharing of smaller EVs

To avoid excessive demand for single metals, we need investments in a wider range of new battery technologies, the researchers said.

Nor do we need more, larger, heavier electric cars. On the contrary, more of us should share smaller cars with small battery packs.

“Extending the lifespan of vehicles and batteries by facilitating reuse and replacement will also be crucial in reducing the demand for raw materials,” says Aguilar Lopez.

Identifying problem shifting

Reducing the demand for certain materials could increase pressure on others. MATILDA shows what happens when this kind of problem shifting happens with cobalt, nickel and lithium. The model also offers alternative solutions.

The researchers says that problem shifting may be critical if the industry collectively shifts towards a new technology at a specific time. One example is the current trend toward lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP).

Battery trends could affect food prices

In 2021, manufacturers as VW, Volvo and Tesla said they planned to adopt LFP. These batteries are free of problematic, costly substances such as cobalt and nickel.

The downside is that they require a lot of phosphorus, an essential raw material for the fertilizer industry. Thus, an increase in demand could be susceptible to price shocks, potentially affecting small farmers, and threatening food prices.

Recycling not a solution in the near term

Another finding in the NTNU study is that although necessary, recycling will not significantly reduce the pressure on raw materials in the coming decade. Our EVs are still reasonably new, and not enough of them will be scrapped for recycling until 10 to 15 years from now.

However, MATILDA shows that primary demand can be reduced by improving efficiencies in lithium, aluminium, manganese, and phosphorus recycling. These materials are currently uneconomical to recycle and are not included in the latest EU battery regulations.

Extending lifetime can be crucial

Without incentives to recover these materials, they are likely to be lost to the environment, Aguilar Lopez said.

He adds that a key issue is that the proposed EU regulations only target the supply side, but not demand. This means that badly needed changes are not actively encouraged.

Warp speed into bottlenecks

Half of new car sales in the USA are predicted to be electric by 2030. This is also the target in a recent Executive Order issued by US President Joe Biden. In the EU, all new car sales must be electric by 2035.

Several car manufacturers have said that they will be able to make the transition several years before this deadline.

This means if we don’t take measures quickly to increase the production of battery materials, we will be driving at warp speed right into the supply bottleneck.

Bigger cars mean bigger batteries

According to this Climate and Community project report, the average battery pack in the US has increased in capacity by nearly threefold since the first Nissan Leaf hit the road a decade ago.

“We’re driving ever larger, heavier cars with massive battery packs. At the same time, we only use these vehicle actively about five per cent of the time. The rest of the time, it’s parked. Only a few of us drive further than 45 kilometres daily,” Aguilar Lopez said.

Small is beautiful

He sees a lot of indicators that fewer people need to own their own car, and that more of us could be OK with sharing smaller, lighter vehicles. In other words, we need more 30-40 kwh Nissan Leaf-type batteries instead of the 60-100 kwh batteries that are found in most Teslas and SUVs.

“Norwegian politicians have chosen to no longer subsidize the largest and most expensive electric cars. This is one example of a powerful measure that indirectly favours smaller cars,” he said.

The researcher believes that moves like this are essential and can inspire both individual countries and the EU.

More than 300 new mines needed

Analyses show that the world needs more than 300 new lithium mines by 2035 to keep up with demand. Prices have risen by several hundred per cent in a few years There is great interest in extraction, but disputes have erupted over new mines in a number of places.

The newest lithium mine in Europe opened around 10 years ago. Some reports say it may take up to 20 years to get a new one up and running. Many initiatives fail and are shut down.

“Ideally, we should have started preparing for this situation 20 years ago,” Aguilar Lopez said.

Buses and ferries worsen bottlenecks

As if that wasn’t bad news enough, the new NTNU study only considers resource consumption by private vehicles. But buses, ferries, and other large vessels are also being electrified using batteries.

Machinery is another area where changes are afoot. Müller said the entire mining sector is completely shifting towards electrification and automation.

These additional demands could quickly worsen supply bottlenecks for raw materials.

“Achieving the goals set by the EU and individual countries could thus be problematic. This would also create a significant threat to the climate goals,” Aguilar Lopez said.

Promising technologies require more lithium

Although the development of highly efficient solid-state batteries is promising, they do not solve the lithium supply crisis either.

“Actually, solid-state batteries can worsen the situation, requiring more lithium per kilowatt hour — almost twice as much in some cases,” Aguilar Lopez said.

Challenges everywhere

Hydrogen fuel cells are becoming a mature technology, but they are expensive. They will be far more effective in ferries and other heavy vessels than in cars.

Lithium-free sodium-ion batteries are another promising alternative. They are in an early R&D stage, so it will take a while before they are road-ready.

“No matter where we turn, we encounter challenges,” Aguilar Lopez said.

Cities for people — not cars

So, what would be the best option to get us out of the lithium supply crunch?

Aguilar Lopez’s immediate answer is that cities should be designed for people, not cars.

“Look at Zürich, Vienna, Paris, and Oslo. Major moves are being made in many places to create more pleasant urban areas and entice more people to leave their cars. And quite a lot are doing just that. We need regulations– and of course people must accept them,” Aguilar Lopez said.

BATMAN project proposes new measures

Norway was a first mover in terms of electrifying the vehicle fleet. Thus, it is expected to be the first country to have larger amounts of spent batteries once the first EVs reach end-of-life.

Müller, Aguilar Lopez and Guillaume Billy were part of the research team for the BATMAN project, From 2019-2022. The project was designed to investigate opportunities for the Norwegian industry to engage in battery reuse and recycling.

Based on the main findings, the scientists suggested several strong actions:
- Facilitate and finance a broader range of battery research geared towards breakthroughs in chemistries and recycling practices.
- Step up and streamline the development of new lithium mines, also in the EU.
- Increase car sharing and better public transport to reduce overall vehicle ownership.
- More small cars with smaller battery packs.
- Greater numbers of and more efficient charging infrastructure.
- Facilitate the recycling of all materials beyond the ones that are already regulated.
- Extend car and battery life via increased reuse and easier repair and replacement of batteries.
Reference: Aguilar Lopez, F..; Billy, R.G.; Müller, D.B. Evaluating strategies for managing resource use in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles using the global MATILDA model. Journal of Resources, Conservation and Recycling
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

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May 18, 2023
Just one degree can change a species
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Newswise — It is not exactly a surprise that climate affects life on earth. At least major changes in climate make a difference. We know that not all species thrive everywhere on the planet.

“The climate affects the life cycle of species, the number of individuals of a species, the overall number of species and the composition and distribution of species in an area,” says James D. M. Speed, a professor in the Department of Natural History at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology’s (NTNU) University Museum.

How small or large a change in temperature is needed to change any of this is less easy to estimate, however, and varies a lot from species to species. Some species thrive over a large and varied area, while others only thrive in very limited areas.

Difficult to find answers

Finding relevant answers can be difficult when looking at how the climate affects species. Researchers often investigate many different questions in a large geographical area. They may also use several different methods that make results from different surveys difficult to compare.

These factors make it difficult or impossible to measure a local effect of climate change.

Publication bias can also affect our overall impression. This bias happens when research results that show no effect – or perhaps even the opposite effect than is expected – are simply not published, and are thereby not available to other researchers. Getting a study published is easier when the results actually show an effect than when researchers find no change whatsoever.

Thus, not all investigations are equally relevant, and it’s possible to fall into several traps.

Examined local collection gathered over 250 years

Researchers from several institutions, including the NTNU University Museum, found a helpful method to check how species in a specific area have been affected by temperatures over a longer period of time.

“We used museum collections that have been built up over 250 years to measure the ecological response to climate change in central Norway,” says Speed. “We looked at a number of species, including vertebrates, invertebrates, plants and fungi.

These museum collections are archives of the life in an area over a long period of time. But they are not just thousands of dead animals and plants for particularly interested collectors. They can actually give us valuable information about how the world is today and about how we can expect the world to be affected by climate change and the actions we humans choose to take.

“What these data and the objects in the museum collections have in common is that studying climate change was not one of their purposes when they were collected. Only now are we seeing that the collections are relevant and that we can use them for such a purpose,” says Tommy Prestø, the senior engineer who is responsible for the day-to-day operation of the botanical collections at the NTNU University Museum.

“It’s really interesting to be able to show that we can use the museum collections in new and innovative ways,” says Prestø, who has spent a lot of time making the collections accessible to a wider audience.

Some of the results are very clear and show that even small changes can have quite a big impact.

Sometimes one degree is enough

For each degree the temperature rises, researchers find that:
- The number of zooplankton decreases by almost 7700 individuals per cubic metre of water per degree warmer in Jonsvatnet, a lake in Trondheim.
- The number of nesting birds is decreasing by two fewer breeding territories per square kilometre per degree warmer in Budalen in Trøndelag county.
- Flowering plants bloom earlier throughout Trøndelag, on average two days earlier per degree warmer.
When some species change, the life cycle of other species may change as well, for example species that eat zooplankton, birds or plants.

“We can see a clear, regional connection with the climate,” says Speed.

“For certain plant species, we’ve found that they’re flowering on average nine days earlier per century. This means that some of our plant species bloom three weeks earlier now than they did 250 years ago,” says Prestø.

Stable species composition over time

“But not everything changes with the climate. Some aspects of nature are more resilient. Overall, the distribution of species and species diversity stays stable over time. That surprised us,” says Speed.

The fluctuations in the number of animals and species composition do not directly follow fluctuations in temperature, either. The relatively long period of 250 years can have both periods of warming and a stable climate.

The species response may thus be delayed in relation to the changes in the climate. They could also be affected by other causes like changing land use, which is the biggest environmental problem, according to the International Nature Panel IPBES.

Collections are a unique source for researchers

These are insights we wouldn’t have gained without the fact that several generations of researchers, from botanist Bishop Gunnerus in the 1700s to the present day, had collected material and information about nature.

“Natural history collections can provide unique insight into a wide range of ecological responses over a period of time that is much greater than what most ecological monitoring programmes manage. So the collections are an essential and invaluable source for ecological research over time,” says Speed.

Reference: Speed, J. D. M., Evankow, A. M., Petersen, T. K., Ranke, P. S., Nilsen, N. H., Turner, G., Aagaard, K., Bakken, T., Davidsen, J. G., Dunshea, G., Finstad, A. G., Hassel, K., Husby, M., Hårsaker, K., Koksvik, J. I., Prestø, T., & Vange, V. (2022). A regionally coherent ecological fingerprint of climate change, evidenced from natural history collections. Ecology and Evolution, 12, e9471.
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

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January 20, 2023
Greta Thunberg effect evident among Norwegian youth

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Newswise — Since 2017, nearly 3000 young Norwegians aged 17 to 20 have shared in their own words what they consider important in Norwegian society, and whom they regard as good role models.

The survey showed a clear shift in Norwegian youth in autumn 2019, when Greta Thunberg received extensive media attention, and the “Fridays for future” movement spread with school strikes in several countries.

“What we see is that Greta Thunberg has been very important in uniting young people who were already concerned about the climate,” says researcher Jan Frode Haugseth, from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU). “She also helped to make more young people climate aware, especially in 2019.”

Study of young people’s engagement

Haugseth is an associate professor in pedagogy in NTNU’s Department of Teacher Education. He heads the research programme that investigates commitment and values among young people in Norway.

Haugseth and his colleague Eli Smeplass are behind the article “The Greta Thunberg Effect: A Study of Norwegian Youth’s Reflexivity on Climate Change.”

Everyone has the opportunity to do what they want, just like everyone can choose to study or do whatever work they want. The most important challenge in society for me is the climate debate, which I believe we really need to tackle. (Female, age 19, 2017 survey)

“When we started these surveys in 2017, we had no particular ambition to look at climate awareness. We wanted to know what young people think about our times and what inspires them,” says Haugseth.

“When we observed how the responses changed in autumn 2019, and that young people themselves were mentioning Greta Thunberg and the importance of taking addressing climate and nature issues, we thought this would be an interesting object of study,” he said.

Let young people speak freely

One problem with regular surveys is that it is difficult to gauge how engaged the respondents really are. The match between what young people claim is important and how they actually behave is ambiguous.

In fact, some research suggests that even if young people answer that the climate threat is serious in surveys, they still live lives with high consumption and relatively high emissions.

I’m really inspired by Greta Thunberg now. She is enormously resourceful, and I greatly admire her efforts. She is brave and uses her voice to fight for something she believes in. And she’s humble at the same time. The focus shouldn’t be on her (Male, age 20, 2019 survey).

In other words, young people have climate awareness on a theoretical and overall level. But they seem to lack what the researchers call climate change reflexivity when it comes to their personal actions.

“We wanted a method to be able to measure young people’s awareness of these issues. We found that we had the opportunity to study what young people tell us about the climate threat by simply asking them to speak freely, rather than posing questions. This ensures deeper reflection than survey questions, which are often answered quickly and without reflecting much,” Haugseth said.

Before and after 2019

The surveys sent out by the researchers contained open text fields for respondents to express what they thought was important in society and to define their role models in their own words.

“We found that in 2019 a lot more young people wrote that the climate threat was important, and they were concerned with the transition to a sustainable economy, restructuring and climate solidarity,” said Haugseth.

“The answers from 2017 were less detailed. Youth were becoming concerned that other ways of managing society had to be found. We could see that after 2019 they argued in a more holistic way,” says Haugseth.

This tendency applied to young people across geographical and social affiliations.

We have to start thinking about the Earth and not just ourselves, and we have to start doing things that benefit the Earth – and not just making sure that we have the best possible time and prioritize economic stability so highly when we’re facing such a big crisis. (Female, age 18, 2019 survey)

“Research often shows that social belonging, like the parents’ level of education and occupation, affects what young people are interested in. But here we see that Greta Thunberg managed to mobilize young people in a broader sense.”

“We also found that climate-conscious young people in 2019-2020-2021 expressed themselves as ‘we’ to a greater extent than in 2017. They come from different places and don’t know each other, but have nevertheless developed a kind of community. They’ve become aware of each other, that there are more people than themselves who are concerned about the climate, and that more versatile solutions are needed than what the adult generation has come up with,” says Smeplass.

Youth mention Thunberg – not climate reports

The researchers do not rule out that the media’s increased attention to climate issues could also have influenced young people’s consciousness around the topic – without Thunberg’s influence.

“But Thunberg reached the young people to a much greater extent than the UN climate panel managed to do. None of the young people mention the climate reports in their answers,” says Smeplass.

Young people are engaged with their peers. They’re looking to their age cohorts, not upwards to what their parents are involved with.

Norway should take advantage of the fact that the country is already in a transition period to switch to green and climate-friendly alternatives. (Female, age 19, 2020 survey)

“Greta Thunberg represents the young generation. She managed to challenge world leaders and the elite and set the agenda. She is quite simply a young person who managed to back the elite against the wall, and a number of young people write that they admire her for this,” Smeplass said.

In the pandemic years 2020 and 2021, fewer young people mentioned Thunberg and climate commitment than in 2019. Could COVID have caused young people to become less concerned about climate issues again?

The best thing about Norway is our beautiful nature that we can all experience freely. We have to solve global warming so that young people can all have a future. (Male, age 19, 2020 survey)

“We believe we now have evidence to say that we can demonstrate a deeper form of reflection, with a more clearly pronounced ‘we’ and a ‘deeper’ climate reflexivity, one year into the pandemic (spring 2021). At the same time, fewer survey respondents are reporting that they think the climate threat is as serious,” says Haugseth.

“It’s difficult for researchers to predict the future. The broad Greta Thunberg effect that we described in 2019 has been less visible during the pandemic. But the relevancy of her message for young people is a sign that their climate engagement hasn’t disappeared,” Smeplass said.

You might also like: When art turns climate activist

Down-to-earth argumentation

The researchers believe that young people connect their climate commitment to issues like environmental protection, education, restructuring and solidarity.

“This is a down-to-earth argument that is adapted to the sustainability focus in modern business development, and that we think will become important in the years to come. And a lot of young people still report that they take the climate threat seriously, even if they don’t necessarily talk much about it. This is also a corrective to the notion that the most effective climate resistance is being organized by climate activists who stop traffic and sabotage art,” says Haugseth.

… in the future, Norway needs to find a new way to make good money other than oil – it’s going to run out faster than we think. (Male, age 19, 2021 survey)

The fact that Greta Thunberg is not participating in this year’s COP27 climate conference COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh does not necessarily mean that she will have any less influence on young people’s climate commitment.

“What we’re interested in is how young people argue for the importance of their climate commitment. Because that tells us something about what they’re really demanding and expecting from the future. In other words, climate summits aren’t necessarily the most effective hotbeds for youth climate engagement going forward,” says Smeplass.

Reference
Jan Frode Haugseth og Eli Smeplass: The Greta Thunberg Effect: A Study of Norwegian Youth’s Reflexivity on Climate Change Sociology, First published online November 17, 2022
https://doi.org/10.1177/00380385221122416

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Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

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December 9, 2022