Tag: Meteorologist Zach Covey

El Niño is set to reappear in time for hurricane season
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ORLANDO, Fla. — We’re just 100 days away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and while the Atlantic remains quiet right now, it could be quieter later this year for a whole different reason.

To understand why this year could be a quieter hurricane season, you must first understand ENSO – or the El Niño Southern Oscillation. It’s a climate index that monitors fluctuations of water temperatures in key areas of the Pacific basin.
What You Need To Know

La Niña continues in the Pacific with an expected end by this Spring

NOAA forecasts El Niño could develop by the peak of hurricane season

This could become the first strong El Niño since 2023 to develop

El Niño typically makes the Atlantic more hostile for hurricane development
There are three key states of ENSO – El Niño, La Niña and Neutral. They all signal a different temperature pattern in the Pacific basin, which can influence not only tropical patterns in the Atlantic, but globally.

It works like this: things that are warm like to rise, while things that are cold like to sink. And this rising and sinking motion works in tandem between the atmosphere and ocean.

So, when the Pacific basin warms up more than it should, it helps to promote rising air over the Pacific Ocean. Rising air helps to develop clouds and thunderstorms, which, if conditions are right, can further develop into a tropical system. This is known as El Niño.

Conversely, when the Pacific is colder than it should be, it promotes sinking motions. This sinking motion in the atmosphere helps to suppress rising motion, making it tougher for clouds and thunderstorms to form, and consequently harder for tropical systems to develop. This is known as La Niña.

When the Pacific basin is near its normal temperature state, we call this ENSO Neutral. Neutral states don’t typically have a big push one way or the other in supporting or suppressing tropical development.

How does this Pacific index drive Atlantic development?

ENSO may be measured in the Pacific Basin, but it has impacts across the global tropical pattern. When rising or sinking motions are set up in the Pacific basin, the opposite sets up in adjacent basins.

It’s just like the saying: what goes up, must come down.

So, when La Niña gets declared in the Pacific basin, that typically means rising motion is supported in the Atlantic basin, allowing for more clouds and thunderstorm development. While this doesn’t solely mean hurricane development is more likely, it is a key factor in helping to enhance the total storm count for the season.

Conversely, when El Niño gets declared in the Pacific – like we expect to happen this year – the rising motion moves to the Pacific basin. This should lead to sinking air across the Atlantic basin, which not only causes enhanced wind shear, but limits upward movement, which can reduce cloud and thunderstorm development. We typically see reduced storm count in these years as a result.

When does El Niño arrive?

According to the February report put out by the Climate Prediction Center last week, NOAA suspects the ongoing La Niña will come to an end by March or April. As the Pacific basin returns to a neutral state.

A growing pool of very warm water near Papua New Guinea and the Philippines should continue its trek eastward over the late Spring and early Summer months, gradually warming the east Pacific waters up further. The waters should reach a state of El Niño by the peak of hurricane season – which is between the middle of August to the middle of October.

This means while the start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season isn’t expected to see much of an influence from ENSO, the back half of the season might. Remember, ENSO patterns alone do not drive how a hurricane season could go. It’s just one piece of the puzzle, but it can be a big piece.

As we near the upcoming hurricane season, your Weather Experts will share tips and tricks to getting you hurricane ready. Remember, it only takes one storm to make it a bad season.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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February 20, 2026
Fireworks and weather: A perfect balance
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Americans look forward to the Fourth of July every year, celebrating with good food, great drinks and even better company. But the celebration always culminates in a star-studded firework display in the sky.

But did you know, weather can have a major impact on how your firework display looks?
What You Need To Know

Fireworks date back to a tradition from 7th century China

Conditions like temperature, rain and wind can affect the display

Everything from the visibility to the brightness of the fireworks depend on the weather

If you plan to set off fireworks, be mindful of the weather
Fireworks date back to 7th century China, when the Chinese developed an explosive way to celebrate the victories of war. Since then, modern technology has led to elaborate firework displays across the globe every year.

But weather has a crucial role in how the display looks to you. Conditions like rain, lightning, wind and temperature all play a role in how visible or even how bright or dim a firework can be.

Wind

One of the most important factors in a firework display is the wind. It can significantly affect how the display goes off. Too much or too little wind can determine how visible the show will be to the spectators below.

As fireworks explode, they create smoke. That smoke gets pushed around by the wind.

Calm winds are not a fireworks friend. During calm wind situations, the firework will explode and the smoke will sit stagnant, limiting the view of the show above.

Strong winds, on the other hand, can blow smoke or hot embers onto spectators. Wind must always be monitored closely by those lighting fireworks.

Temperature and humidity

Believe it or not, even the temperature and humidity of the air mass can play a role in how a firework show goes off.

Usually air cools as you head up higher in the sky. But sometimes, on rare occasions, the air actually warms – making it warmer aloft rather than at the surface of the earth. This is called an inversion and when this happens, warm air will trap cooler, more dense air closer to the surface.

This trapping, also known as a cap, can trap smoke from the exploding fireworks close to the surface as well. This can reduce visibility, making it difficult for spectators to view the show above.

Humidity also can play a role. When the air becomes humid, there’s a lot more moisture in the air. If the humidity of the air is too high, the colors of the fireworks will dim – becoming less bright as they explode. A drier atmosphere will allow for a brighter, more vivid show.

You may also find trouble in lightning fireworks if the humidity becomes too high. Use caution if you plan on lightning fireworks on a very humid evening.

Rain and lightning

One of the most obvious weather hazards to a firework show is rainfall. Fireworks can be set off in the rain, but they must be located inside a sealed container to be lit. Typically, professional firework shows will have a contingency plan like this in place, in case of rainfall.

Sealed containers will help to limit the amount of rain and moisture hitting the firework. The less amount of rain and moisture the firework sees, the better chance it has of being lit properly.

Remember, if you find a fuse won’t light after being lit, discard the firework completely. Place it in a bucket of water and set aside.

Finally, lightning is considered the most dangerous weather hazard to firework shows. Unlit fireworks that are struck by lightning can become lit and a hazard to those nearby on the ground.

If lightning is within 10 miles of your area, head inside immediately, bringing all fireworks with you.

Whatever you do this Fourth of July, celebrate safely. For more firework safety tips, you can visit the National Safety Council.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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July 3, 2025
Fireworks and weather: A perfect balance
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Americans look forward to the Fourth of July every year, celebrating with good food, great drinks and even better company. But the celebration always culminates in a star-studded firework display in the sky.

But did you know, weather can have a major impact on how your firework display looks?
What You Need To Know

Fireworks date back to a tradition from 7th century China

Conditions like temperature, rain and wind can affect the display

Everything from the visibility to the brightness of the fireworks depend on the weather

If you plan to set off fireworks, be mindful of the weather
Fireworks date back to 7th century China, when the Chinese developed an explosive way to celebrate the victories of war. Since then, modern technology has led to elaborate firework displays across the globe every year.

But weather has a crucial role in how the display looks to you. Conditions like rain, lightning, wind and temperature all play a role in how visible or even how bright or dim a firework can be.

Wind

One of the most important factors in a firework display is the wind. It can significantly affect how the display goes off. Too much or too little wind can determine how visible the show will be to the spectators below.

As fireworks explode, they create smoke. That smoke gets pushed around by the wind.

Calm winds are not a fireworks friend. During calm wind situations, the firework will explode and the smoke will sit stagnant, limiting the view of the show above.

Strong winds, on the other hand, can blow smoke or hot embers onto spectators. Wind must always be monitored closely by those lighting fireworks.

Temperature and humidity

Believe it or not, even the temperature and humidity of the air mass can play a role in how a firework show goes off.

Usually air cools as you head up higher in the sky. But sometimes, on rare occasions, the air actually warms – making it warmer aloft rather than at the surface of the earth. This is called an inversion and when this happens, warm air will trap cooler, more dense air closer to the surface.

This trapping, also known as a cap, can trap smoke from the exploding fireworks close to the surface as well. This can reduce visibility, making it difficult for spectators to view the show above.

Humidity also can play a role. When the air becomes humid, there’s a lot more moisture in the air. If the humidity of the air is too high, the colors of the fireworks will dim – becoming less bright as they explode. A drier atmosphere will allow for a brighter, more vivid show.

You may also find trouble in lightning fireworks if the humidity becomes too high. Use caution if you plan on lightning fireworks on a very humid evening.

Rain and lightning

One of the most obvious weather hazards to a firework show is rainfall. Fireworks can be set off in the rain, but they must be located inside a sealed container to be lit. Typically, professional firework shows will have a contingency plan like this in place, in case of rainfall.

Sealed containers will help to limit the amount of rain and moisture hitting the firework. The less amount of rain and moisture the firework sees, the better chance it has of being lit properly.

Remember, if you find a fuse won’t light after being lit, discard the firework completely. Place it in a bucket of water and set aside.

Finally, lightning is considered the most dangerous weather hazard to firework shows. Unlit fireworks that are struck by lightning can become lit and a hazard to those nearby on the ground.

If lightning is within 10 miles of your area, head inside immediately, bringing all fireworks with you.

Whatever you do this Fourth of July, celebrate safely. For more firework safety tips, you can visit the National Safety Council.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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July 3, 2025
Colorado State University issues highest pre-season hurricane forecast ever
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Researchers at Colorado State University released their preseasonal Atlantic hurricane season forecast Thursday morning, calling for another active year across the Atlantic basin.
What You Need To Know

Colorado State University is calling for a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season

The forecast calls for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes

This is the highest preseason forecast put out by CSU since they began in 1995

Hot ocean waters and an expected decrease in wind shear is promoting the high forecast
The report, released at the National Tropical Weather Conference in Texas, highlights several factors for the upcoming season which lead researchers to believe the Atlantic will be as alive as ever.

The forecast calls for 23 named storms this season. Of those 23 storms, 11 are expected to become hurricanes and five are expected to reach major hurricane strength with winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

This is the most aggressive preseason forecast Colorado State University has ever issued. The previous record for highest preseason forecast called for nine hurricanes in a season, which CSU has forecast several times since their first April predictions began in 1995.

The researchers cite record warm tropical and eastern Atlantic sea surface temperatures being a primary factor in the hurricane prediction this year.

“When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, this tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic,” the report states. “A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water.”

Additionally, warmer sea surface temperatures promote larger areas of rising air, which promotes storm development. This can also lead to more favorable conditions for hurricane development as a season moves on.

But that’s not the only factor leading researchers to believe the season this year will be more active than usual. A changing global climate pattern known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will help spark lower wind shear across the Atlantic basin, likely bringing a more favorable environment for storms to thrive as we head toward the peak season in August and September.

“The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by weak El Niño conditions. These El Niño conditions are likely to transition to neutral ENSO conditions in the next few weeks and then to La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” the report states. “La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity through decreases in vertical wind shear.”

Historically, ENSO forecasting during the spring months can be filled with some questions. Global climate models struggle with capturing the full extent of how the atmosphere can transition heading into summer. But CSU says this year’s climate forecast brings some unusual confidence.

“All models are forecasting El Niño to be gone, with most models forecasting La Niña to develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” they say.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs a name list that’s 21 names long. Colorado State University is outright forecasting that the season will run out of names by Nov. 30. If that becomes the case, the basin will move to a secondary name list for the first time since its inception in 2021. Before 2021, any storms that formed after the 21st went in order of the Greek Alphabet. That has only occurred twice in recorded history — 2005 and 2020.

In total, CSU predicts that hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year will be about 170% of an average season. Last year, hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin tracked about 120% of an average season.

Colorado State will issue forecast updates to its seasonal predictions on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6 of this year.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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April 4, 2024
NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch adds new categories to their Bleaching Alert Levels
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2023 was a stressful year for Florida’s coral reefs. Sea surface temperature records were shattered for several days, and the unprecedented heat stress led to several bleaching events across Florida’s reefs.

Bleaching Watches were issued far north along Florida’s coastline, and parts of Cuba and the Bahamas saw their waters under a Level 2 Alert by NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, the highest level on the scale.

But things are changing, and to keep up with a warming ocean, NOAA has revealed adjustments to their long-time Coral Reef Watch scale.
What You Need To Know

NOAA has added three new levels to their Coral Reef Watch alerts

The additional levels were needed to create a more accurate picture in a warming climate

Previously, the Coral Reef Watch ended at a Level 2, indicating significant coral reef issues

The new alert levels go up to a Level 5, which indicates near-complete mortality of a reef ecosystem
Following the hottest year on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has made changes to the alerts their Coral Reef Watch division issues.

NOAA established the Coral Reef Watch program back in 2000 after mass coral bleaching became more visible after 1980.

Scientists learned about the significant ecological, economic and societal benefits coral reefs bring to a local ecosystem, and NOAA needed to observe and alert users of potentially hazardous threats to the reefs around the globe.

A DLNR diver assessing damage to the coral reef at Kaneohe Bay. (DLNR)

Previously, the Coral Reef Watch’s Bleaching Alert scale had five separate categories, running from No Stress to Alert Level 2. That level warned users of a “risk of reef-wide bleaching with mortality of heat-sensitive corals.”

This type of alert assured users of permanent and irreversible damage to the coral ecosystem.

But now, NOAA has taken steps to implement three new alert levels beyond level 2. Bleaching Alert Level 3, 4 and 5 will provide a much more detailed look at where the most significant coral bleaching events occur across the world’s oceans.

NOAA’s bleaching alert map on Feb. 12, 2024. (NOAA)

Each new level brings a different interpretation to the impacts that part of the reef ecosystem experiences.

Bleaching Alert Level 3 will alert users to a risk of death of multiple species within the reef zone.

Alert Level 4 takes it a step further, indicating the risk of severe multi-species mortality.

Alert Level 5, now the highest on the scale, refers to a risk of near-complete mortality of a coral ecosystem with over 80% of all coral in the reef being lost.

The scale will rely heavily on NOAA’s DHW index, or degree heating weeks. The metric keeps track of how long a specific part of the ocean has remained above a certain bleaching threshold. The longer the threshold is met, the higher the DHW, which can increase the Bleaching Alert Level.

With the new additions to the scale, NOAA announced that DHWs ranging from 8 to 12 will correspond to a Level 2 bleaching event while any DHW metric over 20 corresponds to a Level 5 event.

The first use of the new Bleaching Alert Levels was on Jan. 31, 2024, with the release of a new global map. Parts of the central and southern Pacific Ocean–particularly near Tasmania and north of the Solomon Islands–were under alert levels 4 and 5.

Coral reefs act as important ecosystems for specific fish and plant life around the globe, especially in the tropics region. (Spectrum News)

Last year, a joint study from NOAA and the University of Queensland found marine heat waves, like the one Florida experienced last year, severely impact coral health and can disrupt the intricate balance the reefs provide to an ecosystem.

With high sea surface temperatures, symbiotic algae levels can fluctuate, causing bleaching events that can cascade through a large area in a short amount of time.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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February 17, 2024
Severe Weather Awareness Week: Tornadoes and thunderstorms
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It’s Severe Weather Awareness Week across the state of Florida. Each day this week, Spectrum News will bring you tips you need, in order to face the impacts Florida may bring this spring and summer.

On Wednesday, we’ll focus in on severe thunderstorms and the threats they bring, including strong winds, hail and tornadoes.
What You Need To Know

Severe weather can strike any time of the year across Florida

Outlooks provide a heads up to which day severe storms could develop

Watches and warnings are issued the day of an event

Tornadoes are rated based on the amount of damage they produce
Severe weather is a common occurrence in Florida, especially when our wet season kicks in during late spring and summer months.

In order to keep yourself safe from the risks, we’ll discuss how we forecast the threat of severe storms across the Central Florida region.

Understanding terminology

First and foremost, you need to familiarize yourself with three terms: outlook, watch and warning. These terms are key to understanding your risk of severe weather, no matter where you are across the state.

Severe weather outlooks

An outlook is used to provide a heads up that severe storms could be in the forecast on that given date. While outlooks are issued the day of a severe weather event, they can be issued as far as eight days in advance.

Outlooks provide the potential and probability of severe storms within a given area. You’ll want to check back frequently as outlooks change, sometimes two or three times a day.

Even though they can come in a variety of ways, outlooks rank the risk of severe weather from low to high on a scale of 1 to 5. Here’s what each outlook level means:
- Marginal Risk (level 1) – This risk is the most frequent one issued in Florida- and occurs the most nationwide. A marginal risk means that the potential of severe weather is minimal, at best. Some ingredients exist for strong storms to develop, but it’s usually not the best environment for a larger-scale severe weather outbreak. On average, you’ll typically see between one or two severe weather warnings issued in areas where a marginal risk is issued.
- Slight Risk (Level 2) – A slight risk is a step up from marginal, and is issued when the atmosphere is a bit more primed for severe storms to develop. This level of risk is still frequently issued across the state of Florida, especially when potent low pressure systems cross the state in the winter, or during tropical systems. Slight risk days typically bring a tornado risk with them and are capable of producing damaging winds. You’ll usually find at least two to four warnings issued on these days.
- Enhanced Risk (Level 3) – An enhanced risk is issued when numerous severe storms are possible across a region on a given day. These days tend to feature all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging winds and even large hail. Enhanced risks aren’t too common across Florida, mainly because we lack the large storm systems that are associated with these types of days. However, they have been issued before. The most recent one occurring in April 2023, when very large hail fell all across Central Florida.
- Moderate Risk (Level 4) – A moderate risk of severe weather is the second-highest risk level you can have across the state and usually leads to a severe weather outbreak over an area. These are extremely uncommon across Central Florida, with the last one occurring on Jan. 22, 2017. Areas under this risk level will likely see strong storms generate wind gusts over 60 mph and very large hail. Numerous tornadoes are also possible, which could be strong, ranking as an EF-2 or higher.
- High Risk (Level 5) – At the top of the scale, a high risk of severe weather is the rarest risk level issued nationwide, let alone Florida. In fact, you can go years between one high-risk day before seeing the next. The last high-risk that was issued in Central Florida was back in 2017. These are only issued on days where violent tornadoes or tornado outbreaks are expected to occur. The likelihood of long-distance wind damage events, known as derechos, could also put an area under a high risk.
Watches and warnings

A watch is a term seen most likely on a day where severe weather could develop. When you hear a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or a Tornado Watch has been issued for your area, it indicates that atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of each, respectively.

Once a watch is issued, severe weather will likely develop within the coming hours. So, take heed if one is issued- they are there to alert you to be ready to take action later on in the day.

Finally, a warning is a term that associated when severe weather is occurring. Unlike a watch, which warns you of the potential of severe storms and/or tornadoes within the coming hours, a warning indicates that severe weather has developed and is happening currently.

Warnings are issued to alert those in the way of a dangerous storm to take action to protect life and property. They can come in several fashions, including Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, Flash Flood Warnings and Tornado Warnings.

The easiest way to describe the differences between watches and warnings is by comparing them to tacos.

Think of it this way – you’re about to make tacos for dinner. You have all the ingredients, but you haven’t assembled a taco yet. This would be your watch phase. You have everything you need to make a taco, you just haven’t made it yet.

The warning phase will occur once you assemble all your ingredients together and actually make your taco.

Severe storm safety

In Central Florida, our severe weather events are largely due to late-day sea breezes during the spring and summer. As boundaries collide, storms can become strong, creating gusty winds, small hail and even brief tornadoes.

But what makes a thunderstorm severe and how you can prepare before one develops?

If any storm is producing one of those three criteria, it becomes a severe thunderstorm and will get a warning.

If a storm is near that criteria, but doesn’t meet it, a special weather statement may be issued. The purpose for this is to alert the public that an approaching storm nearby could strengthen to severe limits.

If a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is ever issued for your area, follow these tips to keep you and your family safe:
- Seek shelter inside a sturdy structure
- Stay away from doors and windows
- Stay off electrical devices like computers or corded phones
- Stay inside until the storm passes
Tornado safety

If a storm is producing a tornado, or Doppler radar indicates that a tornadic storm is possible in the near term, a Tornado Warning will be issued. In the case you’re under a Tornado Warning, here are some tips to follow:
- Seek shelter on the lower level of a sturdy building or home
- Put as many walls between you and the outside world as possible
- Protect your head with a helmet or other materials around you.
- If in a mobile home, leave and seek a safer shelter
Tornadoes are ranked on a scale from EF-0 to EF-5, with EF-5 being the most damaging. Although tornadoes are typically not confirmed and rated until a day or two after the event takes place.

With that, it is important to treat every Tornado Warning seriously. Here’s the tornado scale with a bit more detail:
- EF-0 Tornado: With estimated winds of 65 to 85 mph, these tornadoes are generally short-lived and produce only minor damage. They can peel off the surface of some roofs, while possibly damaging some gutters or siding. Shallow trees could be knocked over and branches can be broken.
- EF-1 Tornado: With estimated winds of 86 to 110 mph, these tornadoes are a bit stronger and can last for several minutes. These tornadoes are capable of moderate damage and can strip roofs off well-constructed homes. Mobile homes can be overturned or damaged and windows could fail and break.
- EF-2 Tornado: With estimated winds of 111 to 135 mph, these tornadoes are the first that are classified under the “strong” category. Well-constructed homes can find significant damage, including entire roofs being taken off the home. Some foundations may shift on other homes. Mobile homes are likely to be destroyed, while large trees can be completely uprooted.
- EF-3 Tornado: With estimated winds of 136 to 165 mph, these strong tornadoes produce severe damage to a region. Well-constructed homes can be totally destroyed. Cars and trucks can be crushed and trains can be overturned. Trees can be debarked by the winds of these tornadoes.
- EF-4 Tornado: With estimated winds of 166 to 200 mph, these tornadoes produce devastating damage to an area. EF-4 tornadoes are the last tornados on the scale to fall into the “strong tornado” category. Well-constructed homes, businesses and towers can suffer complete damage, while cars can be tossed into the air for several miles. Debris from these tornadoes can become deadly projectiles.
- EF-5 Tornado: With estimated winds in excess of 200 mph, these tornadoes are considered violent and can change the landscape of a region forever. Homes situated in the path of an EF-5 tornado are reduced to concrete slabs. Trees are gone and vehicles, including trucks, are usually reduced to scrap metal. High-rise buildings can find significant structural deformation.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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February 7, 2024
Severe Weather Awareness Week: Lightning safety
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It’s Severe Weather Awareness Week across the state of Florida, and each day, Spectrum News will break down a different hazard you could face this year.

On Monday, we’ll the focus on lightning and how you can stay safe during afternoon and evening storms during the spring and summer.
What You Need To Know

Florida tops the charts for seeing the most lightning deaths in the nation

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale area sees the highest amount of lightning strikes per square mile out of all Florida cities

Lightning can strike up to 12 miles outside the nearest storm cell.

Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors
Floridians are no stranger to lightning strikes. During the summer, strikes across the Sunshine state can eclipse 1,000 bolts in just a span of 15 minutes. But how does lightning form and why is it so prevalent across the state compared to other parts of the nation?

How lightning forms

To understand how lightning forms, you first have to go up into the atmosphere, thousands of feet above our head.

As you ascend 30,000 to 40,000 feet up into the sky, the temperature drops well below freezing. As the temperature falls, water vapor in the surrounding clouds begins to transition from a gas to a solid, creating ice crystals in the cloud.

This process is called deposition.

As the ice crystals continue to form in the cloud, they begin to accumulate on water droplets that drop below freezing, known as a super-cooled water droplet. That’s just a fancy term for any liquid droplet that remains in a liquid state under 32 degrees.

These supercooled droplets eventually reach a key stage in their growth where the ice crystals and the liquid droplets want to separate. The ice crystals move toward the top of the cloud, carrying a positive electric charge with them.

Meanwhile, the water droplets and any hailstones that develop head toward the bottom of the cloud, obtaining a negative charge.

Eventually, there comes a time when the negative charges within the base of the cloud become too great to stay put. As a result, these negative charges rush to meet the positive charges in order to dispel energy. This can happen in one of two ways.

The first is when negative charges surge upward, connecting with the positive charges toward the top of the cloud. If this happens, lightning strikes within the cloud- something meteorologists call cloud-to-cloud lightning. These strikes never reach the ground and remain in the sky between the clouds.

In the second scenario, the negative charges surge downward to meet positive charges racing up from the ground. If a connection is made between the ground and the base of the cloud, a lightning flash occurs. This is called cloud-to-ground lightning, or CG lightning.

(Getty Images)

Lightning is hotter than anything we have on Earth and is even hotter than the surface of the sun. That excessive heat causes the air to expand rapidly and violently when a lightning flash is created, resulting in what we hear as thunder.

Surrounded by water on three sides of the state, Florida’s unique environment helps to keep us supplied with plenty of water vapor throughout much of the year- a key ingredient in lightning strikes.

This is one of the major reasons Florida has more lightning strikes than anywhere else. The abundance of water vapor, and the occasional cool air aloft from passing storms, help to create excessive lightning strikes across the state.

How to avoid becoming a statistic

While it’s still uncommon to be struck by lighting, your odds greatly depend on where you live.

Florida and Texas are two of the nation’s most deadly states when it comes to lightning fatalities because of the unique environment they share. Both receive ample moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and/or Gulf of Mexico, increasing their odds for more strikes.

Other places like North Dakota or Wisconsin, average less strikes per square mile due to the lack of consistent ingredients for lightning. Instead, their lightning strikes are more common with well-developed storms systems that must carry that suitable environment with it.

(Getty Images)

If you follow basic safety procedures and head indoors when lightning strikes, your odds of being struck are reduced to near zero. But if you remain outside or perform unsafe activities during lightning storm nearby, your odds of being struck increase significantly.

Let’s put this into perspective.

In 2020, the U.S. population was estimated to be roughly 331 million. While the number of average deaths attributed to lightning during any given year is only 25, the number of injuries per year rises to only 225.

That means your odds of being struck by lightning any given year is 1 in 1.3 million. Those odds decrease to 1 in 16,550 when we look at being struck at anytime in your lifetime.

So what should you do if lightning strikes near your location?

Well, you want to seek shelter inside a sturdy structure immediately. Try to avoid structures without walls, like outdoor patios or picnic areas. While these structures provide some protection, the lack of walls still keeps you at a risk of being struck by a certain kind of lightning, like side flashes or ground current strikes.

If you are unable to head into a sturdy, enclosed structure like a well-constructed home, follow these tips:
- Get away from large open fields. Avoid the crests of hills and ridges.
- Avoid standing near large objects like trees, power poles or towers.
- Stay out of the water.
- If located around trees, get as low to the ground as possible by crouching.
- If camping, look to stay in valleys and other low-lying areas.
If you’re inside a sturdy building, follow these tips to keep you safe:
- Avoid taking showers. If a house is struck, internal piping is the first line of conduction.
- Avoid windows and doors. These can also become conductors if a house is struck.
- Do not lay on concrete walls or floors.
- Do not use any electric equipment except for remote controls.
- Stay off corded devices like telephones or computers connected by ethernet cords.
Since 2011, Florida continues to lead the nation, with 61 deaths statewide due to lighting. The state averages the most strikes per year, which correlates to why that number is so high.

On top of that, Florida sees more lighting per square mile than anywhere else in the nation. Hence, this is why your Weather Experts say “When thunder roars, go indoors!”

Remember, lightning can strike as far out as 30 miles from the nearest storm, with the most strikes occurring within a 12-mile radius. Just because it isn’t raining overhead doesn’t mean you’re not at risk. Always head indoors once thunder is heard.

On Tuesday, your Weather Experts will talk about the dangers of Florida’s coast, including rip currents and marine hazards.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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February 5, 2024
Meteorologist or imposter: Probing groundhogs’ precision

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Are our rodent friends really as accurate as they think?

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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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February 2, 2024
The coldest time of the year largely varies on where you live
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As winter progresses across the Northern Hemisphere, cold outbreaks are becoming more common. And for many across the nation, the coldest day of the year is likely on the way to your city.
What You Need To Know

The coldest day of the year largely varies if you live east or west of the Rocky Mountains

Most across the eastern United States find their coldest time of the year in late January

The western United States typically is coldest in December

NOAA has found that the coldest day has been shifting later into winter
As we move deeper into the heart of winter, the coldest part of the year is upon us across the Midwest and Northeast. Back in 2022, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an interactive map that details when the coldest day of the year is for your city.

In the analysis conducted by NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), climate experts found that this chilly milestone is now happening later than it used to.

Check out the map below. It reveals when, on average, the coldest day of the year hits based on data from 1991 to 2020. From the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, temperatures hit rock bottom around mid-to-late January.

According to their report, the study found several interesting regional differences across the nation. But the most notable observation was the separation between dates the Rocky Mountains bring forth.

That’s because temperatures out west of the Rockies are largely influenced by the parade of storm systems moving ashore from the Pacific Ocean. These storm systems determine the temperature influences, and thus temperatures more closely align with the seasonal solar cycle if you live west of the Rocky Mountains.

While a few pockets out west have seen their date for the coldest day of the year slide later into the season, these locations are typically found in deep valleys, where calm winds and the bountiful snow cover can cause a temperature inversion—where the temperature at the surface is colder than the temperature above the ground.

But for those located east of the Rockies, the analysis found that the date for the coldest day of the year has slid later into the season.

While the West largely finds their temperature fluctuations based on storm systems, the eastern U.S. finds their temperature regime largely dictated by modified snow cover to the north.

Believe it or not, snowfall in Canada drives the temperature forecast for the eastern half of the country. That’s because as snow falls and blankets the ground in Canada, that snowfall at the surface helps cool temperatures.

As Canada’s snow cover grows, it reflects more and more solar radiation away from the ground and back out to space, keeping temperatures colder than they could be.

As storm systems develop and move eastward across Canada, the wind flow can then push this colder air mass at the surface southward into the United States. This is what’s responsible for those cold air outbreaks across the northern tier of the country.

Now, keep in mind, these dates are calculated by averaging temperatures over a 30-year period, from 1991 to 2020. The actual coldest day may happen in your area earlier or later than what the map above suggests.

NOAA’s analysis points out an interesting shift, however: Compared to climatological averages from 1981 to 2010, the coldest day is now occurring three to six days later or more in many places east of the Rockies.

The newer 30-year averages ending in 2020 also show more warming early in the winter in the eastern U.S., according to NOAA. This lines up with findings from Climate Central, which revealed that winters in the United States are warming faster than any other season east of the Rockies and in Alaska.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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January 20, 2024
Here are your top 5 astronomical events for 2024
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Every year, avid sky gazers book their calendar full of events that are sure to have you looking up. And 2024 promises to bring a series of events you don’t want to miss.
What You Need To Know

Several noteworthy events are possible in the skies above North America in 2024

A coast-to-coast solar eclipse will be found in April

A beautiful meteor shower will dazzle in August

A new comet could light the skies in October
North America is set for dozens of potential sky gazing events during 2024. From a pair of eclipses to a brand new comet and several meteor showers, here are the top five astronomical events for North America in 2024.

1. America’s total solar eclipse

The most anticipated event of the year across the nation will come in April when the Great American Solar Eclipse will streak across the United States.

On April 8, 2024, the nation will be greeted by the moon passing right in front of our sun, creating a breathtaking experience for those who can reach totality. While the entire nation will enjoy the eclipse, only a few select states will get the joys of totality.

Totality occurs when the moon blocks out the entire sun from view, leading to a darker sky resembling if it were dawn or dusk.

A look at the path of the total solar eclipse.

Just prior to totality, another phenomenon known as Baily’s beads will occur. These beads look like distinct balls of light found just on the edge of the moon’s surface as it passes in front of the last bit of the sun.

Baily’s beads are caused by the sun’s light shining through the craters on the surface of the moon and will flicker on and off as the sun passes through the valleys of the moon’s surface.

Totality will be enjoyed by states like Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, New York and Maine. Totality will last for nearly four and a half minutes in cities across Texas—the longest in the nation.

2. America’s penumbral lunar eclipse

Just two weeks before the total solar eclipse, the nation will be greeted by an eclipse of a different kind. On March 24-25, 2024, the nation will observe a penumbral lunar eclipse.

Often, during a total lunar eclipse, the moon passes through the inner shadow of Earth, known as Earth’s umbra. During that passage, the moon darkens noticeably, and can produce a unique nighttime effect.

But during a penumbral lunar eclipse, the moon stays out of the inner shadow and only breaches Earth’s outer shadow, known as the penumbra.

During a lunar eclipse, the moon passes by Earth’s shadow.

This leads to a less deep and typically less dramatic eclipse. Sometimes it can even be mistaken as a normal Full Moon event versus an actual eclipse.

Regardless, this eclipse will be found nationwide. The best time to view the eclipse will be around maximum eclipse time, when one half of the moon will appear slightly darker than the other half.

3. Planets align

A favorite of sky gazers alike, planetary alignment is expected in late June across the nation. This celestial alignment will feature the planets Jupiter, Mars and Saturn along with our Moon.

During this alignment, you can expect to find all the planets and our moon situated near one another in the eastern sky during sunrise.

If you are heading east during your morning commute, you may notice all these celestial bodies shining brightly next to the moon, resembling stars.

4. Perseid meteor shower

Often called the most reliable meteor shower of the year, the Perseid meteor shower will happen in the heart of August. The peak of the shower will occur on the nights of Aug. 12 and 13.

The Perseid shower is caused by Earth’s movement through a debris cloud left behind from the comet Swift-Tuttle, a comet last passed by Earth in 1992.

Two Perseid meteors, centre and lower left, streak across the sky during the annual Perseid meteor shower above a forest on the outskirts of Madrid, in the early hours of Monday, July 28, 2014. (AP Photo/Andres Kudacki)

2024 is likely to be a decent year for this shower, as the moon will only be illuminated 50%. This should allow for between 200 to 350 meteors an hour if you can get to a place with no light pollution. For those in cities, expect that number to be closer to 40 to 60 meteors an hour.

5. A new comet passes by

While there is a bit of a debate about how big this event may be, October will bring a new comet to the skies of Earth.

Discovered back in Feb. 2023, Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will make its closest pass to Earth’s Northern Hemisphere during October. The comet will be roughly 44 million miles away from our planet, or roughly 100 million miles closer than our closest neighbor, Mars.

The comet will appear too close to the sun to be seen in early October, but it will get into a better position for observation around and after Oct. 14.

Comet Hale–Bopp. (NASA)

Scientists are still debating how visible the comet could be on Earth, but some scientists believe this could be a very bright passing, outshining some of the brightest stars in our sky during the peak passage.

A few scientists believe it could be the brightest comet in our skies since Comet Hyakutake in 1996 or Comet Hale-Bopp in 1997. Comet Hale-Bopp was the most observed comet in human history.

If these hypotheses prove to be correct, Comet C/2023 A3 could feature a very prominent tail that observers could see with their own eye.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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January 6, 2024