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Tag: Machinery/Industrial Goods

  • Durable-goods orders jump 1%, but momentum unlikely to last as U.S. economy slows

    Durable-goods orders jump 1%, but momentum unlikely to last as U.S. economy slows

    The numbers: Orders at American factories for long-lasting goods such as autos and computers jumped 1% in October, marking a strong showing that probably isn’t sustainable because of a slowing U.S. economy.

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.5% increase. Durable goods are items such as autos, appliances and computers meant to last at least three years.

    A key measure of business spending, meanwhile, also rose a solid 0.7% last month.

    Orders tend to rise steadily in an expanding economy and shrink when it weakens. Yet the results in October don’t look quite as strong after inflation is taken into account. The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month.

    Big picture: Manufacturers are able to produce more of what their customers want after two years of chronic shortages, but mostly because demand has softened. Rising U.S. interest rates have curbed sales at home while a strong dollar has dented exports.

    The situation could get worse. The Federal Reserve is jacking up interest rates to bring down high inflation, but higher borrowing costs are expected to slow the economy even further.

    Key details: Orders for new cars climbed 0.6% in October. Orders for aircraft rose a sharper 7.4%. The transportation segment is a large and volatile category that often exaggerates the swings in industrial production.

    Outside of transportation, new orders rose a still-decent 0.5%. Bookings increased in every major category except for primary metals.

    The rate of growth in business investment, or core orders, has slowed considerably. however. The figure excludes military spending and the auto and aerospace industries.

    Looking ahead: “Business equipment investment continues to hold up reasonably well in the face of higher borrowing costs,” said senior U.S. economist Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics, but “we doubt that resilience will continue indefinitely.”

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.50%
    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.59%
    were set to open slightly higher in Wednesday trades.

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  • Economy may be in a recession already, Conference Board says, after leading index drops for eighth straight month

    Economy may be in a recession already, Conference Board says, after leading index drops for eighth straight month

    The U.S. leading economic index fell 0.8% in October, the Conference Board said Friday.

    Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 0.4% fall.

    This is the eighth straight decline in the leading index.

    The long period of declines suggests “the economy is possibly in a recession,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board. He said the data show a recession is likely to start around the end of the year and last through mid-2023.

    The coincident index, which measures current conditions, rose 0.2% in October after a 0.1% gain in the prior month. The lagging index increased by 0.1%, matching the September gain. 

    The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators designed to signal business-cycle peaks and valleys.

    Stocks
    DJIA,
    +0.59%

    SPX,
    +0.48%
    were trading higher on Friday morning and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.827%
    rose to 3.8%.

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  • Chicago PMI weakens further in October

    Chicago PMI weakens further in October

    The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped to 45.2 in October from 45.7 in the prior month, according to data released Monday.

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast a 47 reading. 

    Readings below 50 indicate contraction territory.

    The index is produced by the ISM-Chicago with MNI. It is released to subscribers three minutes before its release to the public at 9:45 am Eastern.

    The Chicago PMI is the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the national factory data for October is released on Tuesday.

    Economist polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the closely-watched Institute for Supply Management’s factory index to barely remain above the 50 breakeven level in October. 

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  • Flash PMI data show U.S. economic downturn ‘gathering significant momentum’ in October, says S&P Global

    Flash PMI data show U.S. economic downturn ‘gathering significant momentum’ in October, says S&P Global

    The numbers: The S&P Global U.S. manufacturing sector rose slightly to 50.7 in October from 50.6 in the prior month, based on a “flash” survey.

    The flash U.S. services sector index, meanwhile, fell to 46.6 from 49.3.

    Readings above 50 signify expansion; below that, contraction.

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected manufacturing to rise to 51.8 in October and for the service sector to rise to 49.7.

    Key details: In the service sector, the downturn was fueled by the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions.

    New orders in the manufacturing sector fell back into contraction territory in October. Output remained resilient due to firms eating into backlogs of previously placed orders, S&P Global said.

    While price pressures picked up a bit in the service sector, the pace of the gain in inflation in the manufacturing sector was the slowest in almost two years.

    Big picture: Talk of a recession sometime in 2023 has picked up in the last week. Many economists are sounding more bearish on the outlook, especially since the Federal Reserve is now seen raising its benchmark rate to 5%. However, on Monday, economists at Goldman Sachs said that talk over a recession was overblown.

    What S&P Global said: “The US economic downturn gathered significant
    momentum in October, while confidence in the outlook also deteriorated sharply,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

    “Although price pressures picked up slightly in the service sector due to high food, energy and staff costs, as well as rising borrowing costs, increased competitive forces meant average prices charged for services grew at only a fractionally faster rate. Combined with the easing of price pressures in the goods-producing sector, this adds to evidence that consumer price inflation should cool in coming months,” he added.

    Market reaction: Stocks
    DJIA,
    +0.88%

    SPX,
    +0.58%
    were higher in early trading on Monday, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.236%
    inched up to 4.24%.

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  • 21 dividend stocks yielding 5% or more of companies that will produce plenty of cash in 2023

    21 dividend stocks yielding 5% or more of companies that will produce plenty of cash in 2023

    When the stock market has jumped two days in a row, as it has now, it is easy to become complacent.

    But the Federal Reserve isn’t finished raising interest rates, and recession talk abounds. Stock investors aren’t out of the woods yet. That can make dividend stocks attractive if the yields are high and the companies produce more cash flow than they need to cover the payouts.

    Below is a list of 21 stocks drawn from the S&P Composite 1500 Index
    SP1500,
    +3.12%
    that appear to fit the bill. The S&P Composite 1500 is made up of the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +3.06%    ,
    the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
    MID,
    +3.18%
    and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
    SML,
    +3.80%    .

    The purpose of the list is to provide a starting point for further research. These stocks may be appropriate for you if you are looking for income, but you should do your own assessment to form your own opinion about a company’s ability to remain competitive over the next decade.

    Cash flow is key

    One way to measure a company’s ability to pay dividends is to look at its free cash flow yield. Free cash flow is remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This money can be used to pay for dividends, buy back shares (which can raise earnings and cash flow per share), or fund acquisitions, organic expansion or for other corporate purposes.

    If we divide a company’s estimated annual free cash flow per share by its current share price, we have its estimated free cash flow yield. If we compare the free cash flow yield to the current dividend yield, we may see “headroom” for cash to be deployed in ways that can benefit shareholders.

    For this screen, we began with the S&P Composite 1500, then narrowed the list as follows:

    • Dividend yield of at least 5.00%.

    • Consensus free cash flow estimate available for calendar 2023, among at least five analysts polled by FactSet. We used calendar-year estimates, even though fiscal years for many companies don’t match the calendar.

    • Estimated 2023 free cash flow yield of at least double the current dividend yield.

    For real-estate investment trusts, dividend-paying ability is measured by funds from operations (FFO), a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) takes this a step further, subtracting cash expected to be used to maintain properties. So for the two REITs on the list, the FCF yield column makes use of AFFO.

    For many companies in the financial sector, especially banks and insurers, free cash flow figures aren’t available, so the screen made use of earnings-per-share estimates. These are generally considered to run close to actual cash flow for these heavily regulated industries.

    Here are the 21 companies that passed the screen, with dividend yields of at least 5% and estimated 2023 FCF yields at least twice the current payout. They are sorted by dividend yield:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Type

    		 Dividend yield

    		 Estimated 2023 FCF yield

    		 Estimated “headroom”
    Uniti Group Inc.

    		 UNIT,
    +7.36%         		Real-Estate Investment Trusts

    		 8.33%

    		 25.25%

    		 16.92%
    Hanesbrands Inc.

    		 HBI,
    +5.56%         		Apparel/ Footwear

    		 8.33%

    		 17.29%

    		 8.96%
    Kohl’s Corp.

    		 KSS,
    +5.80%         		Department Stores

    		 7.68%

    		 16.72%

    		 9.04%
    Rent-A-Center Inc.

    		 RCII,
    +10.40%         		Finance/ Rental/ Leasing

    		 7.52%

    		 17.26%

    		 9.73%
    Macerich Co.

    		 MAC,
    +8.18%         		Real-Estate Investment Trusts

    		 7.43%

    		 18.04%

    		 10.60%
    Devon Energy Corp.

    		 DVN,
    +5.72%         		Oil & Gas Production

    		 7.13%

    		 14.47%

    		 7.33%
    AT&T Inc.

    		 T,
    +1.19%         		Major Telecommunications

    		 6.98%

    		 14.82%

    		 7.84%
    Newell Brands Inc.

    		 NWL,
    +5.16%         		Industrial Conglomerates

    		 6.59%

    		 17.42%

    		 10.82%
    Dow Inc.

    		 DOW,
    +2.96%         		Chemicals

    		 6.18%

    		 15.63%

    		 9.45%
    LyondellBasell Industries NV

    		 LYB,
    +3.64%         		Chemicals

    		 6.09%

    		 16.07%

    		 9.99%
    Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. Class A

    		 SMG,
    +5.01%         		Chemicals

    		 6.04%

    		 12.68%

    		 6.65%
    Diamondback Energy Inc.

    		 FANG,
    +5.23%         		Oil & Gas Production

    		 5.56%

    		 13.63%

    		 8.08%
    Best Buy Co. Inc.

    		 BBY,
    +5.86%         		Electronics/ Appliance Stores

    		 5.53%

    		 14.08%

    		 8.55%
    Viatris Inc.

    		 VTRS,
    +5.62%         		Pharmaceuticals

    		 5.50%

    		 28.95%

    		 23.45%
    Prudential Financial Inc.

    		 PRU,
    +5.66%         		Life/ Health Insurance

    		 5.38%

    		 13.30%

    		 7.91%
    Ford Motor Co.

    		 F,
    +7.76%         		Motor Vehicles

    		 5.23%

    		 15.95%

    		 10.72%
    Invesco Ltd.

    		 IVZ,
    +6.76%         		Investment Managers

    		 5.23%

    		 14.95%

    		 9.73%
    Franklin Resources Inc.

    		 BEN,
    +4.37%         		Investment Managers

    		 5.17%

    		 13.21%

    		 8.04%
    Kontoor Brands Inc.

    		 KTB,
    +0.73%         		Apparel/ Footwear

    		 5.17%

    		 14.15%

    		 8.98%
    Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

    		 STX,
    +4.09%         		Computer Peripherals

    		 5.11%

    		 13.19%

    		 8.07%
    Foot Locker Inc.

    		 FL,
    +1.35%         		Apparel/ Footwear Retail

    		 5.03%

    		 15.52%

    		 10.49%
    Source: FactSet

    Any stock screen has its limitations. If you are interested in stocks listed here, it is best to do your own research, and it is easy to get started by clicking the tickers in the table for more information about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    For the “estimated FCF yields,” consensus free cash flow estimates for calendar 2023 were used for all companies except the following:

    Don’t miss: Dividend yields on preferred stocks have soared. This is how to pick the best ones for your portfolio.

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