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Tag: Ilham Aliyev

  • FACT FOCUS: With a truce in Israel, Trump now says he’s ended eight wars. His numbers are off

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    As Israel and Hamas traded hostages and prisoners on Monday, taking a first step toward peace, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, telling them he had ended his eighth war.

    “After so many years of unceasing war and endless danger, today the skies are calm. The guns are silent. The sirens are still. And the sun rises on a holy land that is finally at peace,” Trump said.

    He then upped the number of wars he claims to have ended in his first eight months in office, saying, “Yesterday I was saying seven, but now I can say eight.”

    But Trump’s claim is exaggerated. Much work remains before an end to the war between Israel and Hamas can be declared. That’s also true in other countries where Trump claims to have ended wars.

    Here’s a closer look:

    Israel and Hamas

    While the ceasefire and hostage deal is a major achievement, it is still an early and delicate moment in the path to a permanent end to the war, let alone a two state solution.

    The first steps of the agreement Trump brokered included the release of hostages in Gaza, the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israel, a surge of humanitarian aid and a partial pullback by Israeli forces from Gaza’s main cities.

    But major elements remain to be worked out.

    After his stop in Israel, Trump gathered with other world leaders in Egypt for a “ Summit of Peace ” to discuss the ceasefire plan. Trump acknowledged that leaders had taken the “first steps to peace” and urged leaders to build on the breakthrough. Trump and other leaders signed a document that he said would “spell out a lot of rules and regulations and lots of other things, and it’s very comprehensive,” though details were not immediately available.

    The next phase of talks is expected to address disarming Hamas, creating a post-war government for Gaza, reconstruction, and the extent of Israel’s withdrawal from the territory. Trump’s plan also stipulates that regional and international partners will work to develop a new Palestinian security force.

    At least some, if not all, of those elements need to be worked out, and negotiations over those issues could break down. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff said on Monday that he and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, were “already working” on implementation issues.

    Israel and Iran

    Trump is credited with ending the 12-day war.

    In June, Israel launched attacks on the heart of Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership, saying it wanted to stop Tehran from building a nuclear weapon. Iran has denied it was trying to do that.

    Trump negotiated a ceasefire after directing American warplanes to strike Iran’s Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites.

    Evelyn Farkas, executive director of Arizona State University’s McCain Institute, said that Trump should get credit for ending the war.

    “There’s always a chance it could flare up again if Iran restarts its nuclear weapons program, but nonetheless, they were engaged in a hot war with one another,” she said. “And it didn’t have any real end in sight before President Trump got involved and gave them an ultimatum.”

    Lawrence Haas, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council who is an expert on Israel-Iran tensions, agreed the U.S. was instrumental in securing the ceasefire. But he characterized it as a “temporary respite” from the ongoing “day-to-day cold war” between the two countries that often involves flare-ups.

    Egypt and Ethiopia

    This could be described as tensions at best, and peace efforts, which do not directly involve the United States, have stalled.

    The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River has caused friction between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan since the power-generating project was announced more than a decade ago. In July, Ethiopia declared the project complete. It was inaugurated in September.

    Egypt and Sudan oppose the dam. Although the vast majority of the water that flows down the Nile originates in Ethiopia, Egyptian agriculture relies on the river almost entirely. Sudan fears flooding and wants to protect its own power-generating dams.

    During his first term, Trump tried to broker a deal between Ethiopia and Egypt. He could not get the countries to agree and suspended aid to Ethiopia over the dispute. In July, he posted on social media that he helped the “fight over the massive dam (and) there is peace at least for now.” But the disagreement persists, and negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have stalled.

    “It would be a gross overstatement to say that these countries are at war,” Haas said. “I mean, they’re just not.”

    India and Pakistan

    The April killing of tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir pushed India and Pakistan closer to war than they had been in years, but a ceasefire was reached.

    Trump has claimed that the U.S. brokered the ceasefire, which he said came about in part because he offered trade concessions. Pakistan thanked Trump, recommending him for the Nobel Peace Prize. India has denied Trump’s claims, saying there was no conversation between the U.S. and India on trade in regards to the ceasefire.

    Although India played down the Trump administration’s role in the ceasefire, Haas and Farkas believe the U.S. deserves some credit for helping stop the fighting.

    “I think that President Trump played a constructive role from all accounts, but it may not have been decisive. And again, I’m not sure whether you would define that as a full-blown war,” Farkas said.

    Serbia and Kosovo

    The White House lists the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo as one Trump resolved. But there has been no threat of a war between the two neighbors during Trump’s second term or any significant contribution from the Republican president this year to improve relations.

    Kosovo is a former Serbian province that declared independence in 2008. Tensions have persisted since, but never to the point of war, mostly because NATO-led peacekeepers have been deployed in Kosovo, which has been recognized by more than 100 countries.

    During his first term, Trump negotiated a wide-ranging deal between the countries, but much of what was agreed on was never carried out.

    Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

    Trump has played a key role in peace efforts between the African neighbors, but he is hardly alone and the conflict is far from over.

    Eastern Congo, rich in minerals, has been battered by fighting with more than 100 armed groups. The most potent is the M23 rebel group. It is backed by neighboring Rwanda, which claims that it is protecting its territorial interests and that some of those who participated in the 1994 Rwandan genocide fled to Congo and are working with the Congolese army.

    The Trump administration’s efforts paid off in June, when the Congolese and Rwandan foreign ministers signed a peace deal at the White House. The M23, however, was not directly involved in the U.S.-facilitated negotiations and said it would not abide by the terms of an agreement that did not involve it.

    The final step to peace was meant to be a Qatar-facilitated deal between Congo and M23 that would bring about a permanent ceasefire as well as a final agreement to be signed separately between Congo and Rwanda as facilitated by the administration. However, talks have stalled between the different parties amid setbacks, and deadly fighting continues in eastern Congo.

    Armenia and Azerbaijan

    In August, Trump hosted the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House, where they signed a deal aimed at ending a decades-long conflict. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the signed document a “significant milestone.” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hailed Trump for performing “a miracle.”

    The agreements were intended to reopen key transportation routes and reaffirm Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s commitment to signing a peace treaty. The treaty’s text was initialed by the countries’ foreign ministers at that meeting, which indicated preliminary approval. But the two countries have yet to sign and ratify the deal.

    Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in a bitter conflict over territory since the early 1990s, when ethnic Armenian forces took control of the Karabakh province, known internationally as Nagorno-Karabakh, and nearby territories. In 2020, Azerbaijan’s military recaptured broad swaths of territory. Russia brokered a truce and deployed about 2,000 peacekeepers to the region.

    In September 2023, Azerbaijani forces launched a lightning blitz to retake remaining portions. The two countries have worked toward normalizing ties and signing a peace treaty ever since.

    Cambodia and Thailand

    Officials from Thailand and Cambodia credit Trump with pushing the Asian neighbors to agree to a ceasefire in this summer’s brief border conflict.

    Cambodia and Thailand clashed in the past over their shared border. The latest fighting began in July after a land mine explosion along the border wounded five Thai soldiers. Tensions had been growing since May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a confrontation that created a diplomatic rift and roiled Thai politics.

    Both countries agreed in late July to an unconditional ceasefire during a meeting in Malaysia.

    Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pressed for the pact, but there was little headway until Trump intervened. Trump said on social media that he warned the Thai and Cambodian leaders that the U.S. would not move forward with trade agreements if the hostilities continued. Both countries faced economic difficulties and neither had reached tariff deals with the U.S., though most of their Southeast Asian neighbors had.

    According to Ken Lohatepanont, a political analyst and University of Michigan doctoral candidate, “President Trump’s decision to condition a successful conclusion to these talks on a ceasefire likely played a significant role in ensuring that both sides came to the negotiating table when they did.”

    ___

    Associated Press writers Michelle Price, Chinedu Asadu, Melissa Goldin, Jon Gambrell, Grant Peck, Dasha Litvinova, Fay Abuelgasim, Rajesh Roy, and Dusan Stojanovic contributed to this report. ___

    Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.

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  • FACT FOCUS: Trump says he has ended seven wars. The reality isn’t so clear cut

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    President Donald Trump has projected himself as a peacemaker since returning to the White House in January, touting his efforts to end global conflicts.

    In meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders Monday, Trump repeated that he has been instrumental in stopping multiple wars but didn’t specify which.

    “I’ve done six wars, I’ve ended six wars, Trump said in the Oval Office with Zelenskyy. He later added: “If you look at the six deals I settled this year, they were all at war. I didn’t do any ceasefires.”

    He raised that figure Tuesday, telling “Fox & Friends” that “we ended seven wars.”

    But although Trump helped mediate relations among many of these nations, experts say his impact isn’t as clear cut as he claims.

    Here’s a closer look at the conflicts.

    People take pictures of smoke rising from an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 23, 2025. (AP Photo, File)

    Israel and Iran

    Trump is credited with ending the 12-day war.

    Israel launched attacks on the heart of Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership in June, saying it wanted to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon — which Tehran has denied it was trying to do.

    Trump negotiated a ceasefire between Israel and Iran just after directing American warplanes to strike Iran’s Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites. He publicly harangued both countries into maintaining the ceasefire.

    Evelyn Farkas, executive director of Arizona State University’s McCain Institute, said Trump should get credit for ending the war.

    “There’s always a chance it could flare up again if Iran restarts its nuclear weapons program, but nonetheless, they were engaged in a hot war with one another,” she said. “And it didn’t have any real end in sight before President Trump got involved and gave them an ultimatum.”

    Lawrence Haas, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council who is an expert on Israel-Iran tensions, agreed the U.S. was instrumental in securing the ceasefire. But he characterized it as a “temporary respite” from the ongoing “day-to-day cold war” between the two foes that often involves flare-ups.

    Egypt and Ethiopia

    This could be described as tensions at best, and peace efforts — which don’t directly involve the U.S. — have stalled.

    The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River has caused friction between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan since the power-generating project was announced more than a decade ago. In July, Ethiopia declared the project complete, with an inauguration set for September.

    Egypt and Sudan oppose the dam. Although the vast majority of the water that flows down the Nile originates in Ethiopia, Egyptian agriculture relies on the river almost entirely. Sudan, meanwhile, fears flooding and wants to protect its own power-generating dams.

    During his first term, Trump tried to broker a deal between Ethiopia and Egypt but couldn’t get them to agree. He suspended aid to Ethiopia over the dispute. In July, he posted on Truth Social that he helped the “fight over the massive dam (and) there is peace at least for now.” However, the disagreement persists, and negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have stalled.

    “It would be a gross overstatement to say that these countries are at war,” said Haas. “I mean, they’re just not.”

    Indian security officers patrol in armored vehicles in Pahalgam, Indian controlled Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, after assailants indiscriminately opened fired at tourists. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin, File)

    Indian security officers patrol in armored vehicles in Pahalgam, Indian controlled Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, after assailants indiscriminately opened fired at tourists. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin, File)

    India and Pakistan

    The April killing of tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir pushed India and Pakistan closer to war than they had been in years, but a ceasefire was reached.

    Trump has claimed that the U.S. brokered the ceasefire, which he said came about in part because he offered trade concessions. Pakistan thanked Trump, recommending him for the Nobel Peace Prize. But India has denied Trump’s claims, saying there was no conversation between the U.S. and India on trade in regards to the ceasefire.

    Although India has downplayed the Trump administration’s role in the ceasefire, Haas and Farkas believe the U.S. deserves some credit for helping stop the fighting.

    “I think that President Trump played a constructive role from all accounts, but it may not have been decisive. And again, I’m not sure whether you would define that as a full-blown war,” Farkas said.

    Serbia and Kosovo

    The White House lists the conflict between these countries as one Trump resolved, but there has been no threat of a war between the two neighbors during Trump’s second term, nor any significant contribution from Trump this year to improve their relations.

    Kosovo is a former Serbian province that declared independence in 2008. Tensions have persisted ever since, but never to the point of war, mostly because NATO-led peacekeepers have been deployed in Kosovo, which has been recognized by more than 100 countries.

    During his first term, Trump negotiated a wide-ranging deal between Serbia and Kosovo, but much of what was agreed on was never carried out.

    People protest in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, against the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels' advances into eastern Congo's capital, Goma, on Jan. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Samy Ntumba Shambuyi, File)

    People protest in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, against the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels’ advances into eastern Congo’s capital, Goma, on Jan. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Samy Ntumba Shambuyi, File)

    Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

    Trump has played a key role in peace efforts between the African neighbors, but he’s hardly alone and the conflict is far from over.

    Eastern Congo, rich in minerals, has been battered by fighting with more than 100 armed groups. The most potent is the M23 rebel group backed by neighboring Rwanda, which claims it is protecting its territorial interests and that some of those who participated in the 1994 Rwandan genocide fled to Congo and are working with the Congolese army.

    The Trump administration’s efforts paid off in June, when the Congolese and Rwandan foreign ministers signed a peace deal at the White House. The M23, however, wasn’t directly involved in the U.S.-facilitated negotiations and said it couldn’t abide by the terms of an agreement that didn’t involve it.

    The final step to peace was meant to be a separate Qatar-facilitated deal between Congo and M23 that would bring about a permanent ceasefire. But with the fighting still raging, Monday’s deadline for the Qatar-led deal was missed and there have been no public signs of major talks between Congo and M23 on the final terms.

    Armenia and Azerbaijan

    Trump this month hosted the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House, where they signed a deal aimed at ending a decades-long conflict between the two nations. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the signed document a “significant milestone,” and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hailed Trump for performing “a miracle.”

    The two countries signed agreements intended to reopen key transportation routes and reaffirm Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s commitment to signing a peace treaty. The treaty’s text was initialed by the countries’ foreign ministers at that meeting, which indicates preliminary approval. But the two countries have yet to sign and ratify the deal.

    Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a bitter conflict over territory since the early 1990s, when ethnic Armenian forces took control of the Karabakh province, known internationally as Nagorno-Karabakh, and nearby territories. In 2020, Azerbaijan’s military recaptured broad swaths of territory. Russia brokered a truce and deployed about 2,000 peacekeepers to the region.

    In September 2023, Azerbaijani forces launched a lightning blitz to retake remaining portions. The two countries have worked toward normalizing ties and signing a peace treaty ever since.

    This photo released by the Royal Thai Army shows an injured Thai soldier who stepped on a land mine, being airlifted to a hospital in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand, July 23, 2025. (The Royal Thai Army via AP, File)

    This photo released by the Royal Thai Army shows an injured Thai soldier who stepped on a land mine, being airlifted to a hospital in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand, July 23, 2025. (The Royal Thai Army via AP, File)

    Cambodia and Thailand

    Officials from Thailand and Cambodia credit Trump with pushing the Asian neighbors to agree to a ceasefire in this summer’s brief border conflict.

    Cambodia and Thailand have clashed in the past over their shared border. The latest fighting began in July after a land mine explosion along the border wounded five Thai soldiers. Tensions had been growing since May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a confrontation that created a diplomatic rift and roiled Thai politics.

    Both countries agreed in late July to an unconditional ceasefire during a meeting in Malaysia. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pressed for the pact, but there was little headway until Trump intervened. Trump said on social media that he warned the Thai and Cambodian leaders that the U.S. would not move forward with trade agreements if the hostilities continued. Both countries faced economic difficulties and neither had reached tariff deals with the U.S., though most of their Southeast Asian neighbors had.

    According to Ken Lohatepanont, a political analyst and University of Michigan doctoral candidate, “President Trump’s decision to condition a successful conclusion to these talks on a ceasefire likely played a significant role in ensuring that both sides came to the negotiating table when they did.” ___ Associated Press reporters Jon Gambrell, Grant Peck, Dasha Litvinova, Fay Abuelgasim, Rajesh Roy, and Dusan Stojanovic contributed.

    ___

    Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.

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  • Leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan shake hands as they join Trump, sign agreement at peace summit

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    Leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan shake hands as they join Trump, sign agreement at peace summit

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  • The ‘dirty dozen’ of Davos

    The ‘dirty dozen’ of Davos

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    It’s that time of year again: Leaders, business titans, philanthropists and celebs descend on the Swiss ski town of Davos to discuss the fate of the world and do deals/shots with the global elite at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

    This year’s theme: “Rebuilding trust.” Prescient, given the dumpster fire the world seems to be turning into lately, both literally (climate change) and figuratively (where to even begin?).

    As always, the Davos great and good will be rubbing shoulders with some of the world’s absolute top-drawer dirtbags. While there’s been a distinct dearth of Russian oligarchs in attendance at the WEF since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Donald Trump will be tied up with the Iowa caucus, there are still plenty of would-be autocrats, dictators, thugs, extortionists, misery merchants, spoilers and political pariahs on the Davos guest list.

    1. Argentine President Javier Milei

    Known as the Donald Trump of Argentina — and also as “The Madman” and “The Wig” — the chainsaw-wielding Javier Milei has it all: a fanatical supporter base, background as a TV shock jock, libertarian anarcho-capitalist policies (except when it comes to abortion), and a … memorable … hairdo.

    A long-time Davos devotee (he’s been attending the WEF for years), Milei’s libertarian policies have turned from kooky thought bubbles to concerning reality after he was elected president of South America’s second-largest economy, riding a wave of discontent with the political establishment (sound familiar?). The question now is how far Milei will go in delivering on his campaign promises to hack back public service and state spending, close the Argentine central bank and drop the peso.

    If you do get stuck talking to Milei in the congress center or on the slopes, here are some conversation starters …

    Milei’s likes: 1) American mobster Al Capone — “a hero.” 2) His cloned English Mastiff dogs — his advisers. 3) Spreading the gospel on tantric sex. 4) Selling human organs on the open market.

    Milei’s dislikes: 1) Pope Francis — “a filthy leftist” and “communist turd” — though the Milei administration has recently invited him back to Argentina to visit. 2) Taxes — insisting (incorrectly) Jesus didn’t pay ’em. 3) Sex education — a Marxist plot to destroy the family. 4) Fighting climate change — a hoax, naturally.

    2. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

    Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event, accompanied by a giant posse of top Saudi officials.

    It’s the ultimate redemption arc for the repressive authoritarian ruler of a country with an appalling human rights record — who, according to United States intelligence, personally ordered the brutal assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. 

    Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event | Leon Neal/Getty Images

    Perhaps MBS would still be a WEF pariah — consigned to rubbing shoulders with mere B-listers at his own Davos in the desert — if it were not for that other one-time Davos-darling-turned-persona-non-grata: Russian President Vladimir Putin. By launching his invasion of Ukraine, which killed thousands of civilians and hundreds of thousands of troops, Putin managed to push the West back into MBS’ embrace. Guess it’s all just oil under the bridge now.

    Here’s a piece of free advice: Try to avoid being caught getting a signature MBS fist-bump. Unless, of course, you’re the next person on our list …

    3. Jared Kushner, founder of Affinity Partners

    Jared Kushner is the closest anyone on the mountain is likely to come to Trump, the former — and possibly future — billionaire baron-cum-anti-elitist president of the United States of America. 

    On the one hand, a chat with The Donald’s son-in-law in the days just after the Iowa caucus would probably be quite a get for the Davos devotee. On other hand … it’s Jared Kushner.

    The 43-year-old, who is married to Ivanka Trump and served as a senior adviser to the former president during his time in office, leveraged his stint in the White House to build up a lucrative consulting career, focused mainly on the Middle East.

    Kushner’s private equity firm, Affinity Partners, is largely funded through Gulf countries. That includes a $2 billion investment from the Saudi Public Investment Fund, led by bin Salman — which was, coincidentally, pushed through despite objections by the crown prince’s own advisers. 

    Kushner struck up a friendship and alliance with MBS during his father-in-law’s term in office, raising major conflict-of-interest suspicions for the Trump administration — especially when the then-U.S. president refused to condemn the Saudi leader in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, despite the CIA concluding he was directly involved.

    4. Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president

    What does an autocrat do with a breakaway state within his country’s borders? Take advantage of Russia’s attention being elsewhere along with the EU’s thirst for his gas to launch a lightning-fast offensive, seize control, deport those pesky ancestral residents, lock up any rascally reporters — and then call a snap election to capitalize on the freshly whipped patriotic fervor, of course!

    Not that elections matter much for Ilham Aliyev — a little ballot stuffing here, a bit of double-voting there, add a sprinkle of violence and suppression — and hey presto, you’ve got a winning recipe, for two decades and counting.

    Running Azerbaijan is something of a family business for the Aliyevs — Ilham assumed power after the death of his father, Heydar Aliyev, an ex-Soviet KGB officer who ruled the country for decades. And the junior Aliyev changed Azerbaijan’s constitution to pave the path to power for the next generation of his family — and appointed his own wife as vice president to boot.

    5. Chinese Premier Li Qiang

    Li Qiang is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ultra-loyal right-hand man, and will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year.

    Li’s claim to infamy: imposing a brutal lockdown on the entirety of Shanghai for weeks during the coronavirus pandemic, which trapped its 25 million-plus inhabitants at home while many struggled to get food, tend to their animals or seek medical help — and tanking the city’s economy in the process.

    Li’s also the guy selling (and whitewashing) China’s Uyghur policy in the Islamic world. In case you need a refresher, China has detained Uyghurs, who are mostly Muslim, in internment camps in the northwest region of Xinjiang, where there have been allegations of torture, slavery, forced sterilization, sexual abuse and brainwashing. China’s actions have been branded genocide by the U.S. State Department, and as potential crimes against humanity by the United Nations.

    Li Qiang will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year | Johannes Simon/Getty Images

    The Chinese government claims the camps carry out “reeducation” to combat terrorism — a story Li has brought forward during recent meetings with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar. Guess we know whom Li will be lunching with.

    6. Rwandan President Paul Kagame

    Nicknamed “the Napoleon of Africa” in a nod to his campaign to seize power in 1994, Paul Kagame has ruled over the land of a thousand hills since. He’s often praised for overseeing what is probably the greatest development success story of modern Africa; he’s also a dictator.

    The former military officer changed the Rwandan constitution to scrap an inconvenient term limit and cement his firm grip on the levers of power, while clamping down on dissent. But despite being accused of overseeing the imprisonment, exile and torture of Rwandan dissidents and journalists, Kagame has managed to stay in the West’s good books — and on the Davos guest list. 

    7. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico

    Slovakia just can’t seem to quit Robert Fico. 

    Forced from office in 2018 by mass protests following the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová, Fico rose from the political ashes to become Slovakian prime minister for the fourth time late last year. His Smer party ran a Putin-friendly campaign, pledging to end all military support for Ukraine.

    Slovakian courts are still working through multiple organized crime cases stemming from the last time Smer was in power, involving oligarchs alleged to have profited from state contracts; former top police brass and senior military intelligence officers; and parliamentarians from all three parties in Fico’s new coalition government.

    8. President of Hungary Katalin Novák

    Katalin Novák, elected Hungarian president in 2022, must’ve pulled the short straw: she’s been sent to Davos to fly the flag for the EU’s pariah state. Luckily, the 46-year-old is used to being the odd one out at a shindig: She’s both the first woman and the youngest-ever Hungarian president.

    You’d think Novák, given her background, would be a trail-blazing feminist seeking to inspire women to reach for the stars. But the arch social conservative is a hero of the international anti-abortion, anti-equality, anti-feminism movement.

    It’s her thoughts on the gender pay gap, though, that ought to get attention at the famously male-dominated World Economic Forum: In an infamous video posted back in late 2020, Novák told the sisterhood: “Do not believe that women have to constantly compete with men. Do not believe that every waking moment of our lives must be spent with comparing ourselves to men, and that we should work in at least the same position, for at least the same pay they do.” That’s us told.

    9. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet

    You may be surprised to see Hun Manet on this list: The new, Western-educated Cambodian prime minister has been touted in some circles as a potential modernizer and reformer. 

    But Hun Manet is less a breath of fresh air and a lot more continuation of the same stale story. Having inherited his position from his father, the longtime autocrat Hun Sen, Hun Manet has shown no signs of wanting to reform or modernize Cambodia. While some say it’s too early to tell where he’ll land (given his dad’s still on the scene, along with his Communist loyalists), the fact is: Many hallmarks of autocracy are still present in Cambodia. Repression of the opposition? Check. Dodgy “elections”? Check. Widespread graft and clientelism? Check and check. 

    10. Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani

    How has a small kingdom of 2.6 million inhabitants in the Persian Gulf managed to play a starring role in so many explosive scandals?

    There were the influence-buying allegations that claimed the scalps of multiple European Union lawmakers. The claims of undisclosed lobbying by two Trump-aligned Republican operatives. The multiple controversies over attempts at sportswashing. Not to mention the questions raised about what officials in the emirate knew ahead of the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas — of which Qatar is the biggest financial backer.

    Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani is the prime minister of Qatar, a country that’s played a starring role in many explosive scandals | Chris J. Ratcliffe/AFP via Getty Images

    You’d think that sort of record would see Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani shunned by the world’s top brass. Nah! Just this month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Qatari leader and told him the U.S. was “deeply grateful for your ongoing leadership in this effort, for the tireless work which you undertook and that continues, to try to free the remaining hostages.” 

    See you on the slopes, Mohammed!

    11. Polish President Andrzej Duda

    When you compare Polish President Andrzej Duda to some of the others on this list, he doesn’t seem to measure up. He’s not a dictator running a violent petro-state, hasn’t invaded any neighbors or even wielded a chainsaw on stage.

    But Duda is yesterday’s man. As the last one standing from Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice party that was swept out of office last year, Duda’s holding on for dear life to his own relevance, doing his best to act as a spoiler against the Donald Tusk-led government by wielding his veto powers and harboring convicted lawmakers. All of which is to say: When you catch up with President Duda at Davos, don’t assume he’s speaking for Poland.

    12. Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco

    The Saudi Arabian state oil and gas company is Aramco — the world’s biggest energy firm — and Amin Nasser is its boss. If you read Aramco’s press releases, you’d be forgiven for assuming it is also the world’s biggest champion of the green energy transition. Spoiler alert: It’s far from it.

    Exhibit A: Aramco is reportedly a top corporate polluter, with environment nongovernmental organization ClientEarth reporting that it accounts for more than 4 percent of the globe’s greenhouse gas emissions since 1965. Exhibit B: Bloomberg reported in 2021 that it understated its carbon footprint by as much as 50 percent. 

    Nasser, meanwhile, has criticized the idea that climate action should mean countries “either shut down or slow down big time” their fossil fuel production. Say that to Al Gore’s face!

    This article has been updated to reflect the fact Shou Zi Chew is no longer going to attend the World Economic Forum.

    Dionisios Sturis, Peter Snowdon, Suzanne Lynch and Paul de Villepin contributed reporting.

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    Zoya Sheftalovich

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  • Aid convoys set course for Nagorno-Karabakh under new pact with Azerbaijan

    Aid convoys set course for Nagorno-Karabakh under new pact with Azerbaijan

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    KORNIDZOR, Armenia — Tons of humanitarian aid were en route on Saturday to Nagorno-Karabakh under the terms of a deal struck with the breakaway region’s Armenian leadership, Azerbaijan said.

    The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) on Saturday said it had dispatched its first shipment of food and fuel to reach the mountainous territory from Armenia since Azerbaijan launched its military offensive earlier this week. The convoy of four trucks drove across the Hakari Bridge, crossing the border amid warnings of a growing humanitarian crisis among the civilian population.

    “We are looking at the different needs of the population,” a spokesperson for the ICRC told POLITICO. “And, underlining our role as a neutral intermediary, we are of course in dialog with all the decision-makers to be able to provide assistance that is much needed.”

    The delivery marks only the second time civilian aid will reach Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia since Azerbaijan closed a checkpoint on the internationally recognized border after a firefight with Armenian troops on June 15. The ICRC has previously warned that without access, a humanitarian crisis could quickly unfold — and that situation has only been compounded by reports of mass displacements as Azerbaijani forces took territory inside the ethnic Armenian-held enclave in a 24-hour attack that began on Tuesday.

    While the ICRC has been able to transfer wounded people to hospitals inside Nagorno-Karabakh, a mooted evacuation of the injured to Armenia has not yet materialized.

    Azerbaijan has since said the local leadership must disband, its soldiers must lay down their weapons, and those living there will have to accept being governed as part of Azerbaijan, or else leave.

    A U.S. congressional delegation visited the road leading to the Hakari Bridge moments before the ICRC convoy passed. Addressing reporters, Senator Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, said Washington was deeply concerned by the unfolding crisis and called for support for civilians “suffering as a result of the blockade for many months.”

    Shortly afterwards, a long convoy of Russian peacekeepers’ vehicles raced down the road toward Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijan said that it had dispatched two tanker trucks full of fuel to the de facto capital, Stepanakert. Moscow’s personnel had also been prevented from regularly using the road since June, reportedly only bringing in essentials for their own troops by helicopter.

    Speaking to POLITICO, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s foreign policy adviser, Hikmet Hajiyev, said the guarantee for humanitarian aid access “once again shows the good intentions and seriousness of the Azerbaijan government to meet the needs and requirements of Armenian residents and also to ensure a safe and decent reintegration process.”

    A special government working group has been established, he added, to address the humanitarian, economic and social aspects of absorbing Nagorno-Karabakh and its tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians into Azerbaijan after 30 years of self-declared independence. The leadership of the unrecognized state said on Wednesday that it had been forced to accept a Moscow-brokered surrender agreement as its troops were routed. Azerbaijan says Armenian fighters have already begun surrendering their weapons under the terms of the deal.

    “Karabakh was a powder keg and the most militarized zone in the world,” Hajiyev added. “But now that is in the past. Under these circumstances, there are much better chances for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

    However, concerns remain that tens of thousands of civilians trapped in the crisis-hit region could be forced to flee their homes, with local officials warning of “ethnic cleansing.”

    According to Laurence Broers, an expert on the conflict at Chatham House, the question is now whether the apparent goodwill gestures solidify into something more permanent.

    “We’ve got to end this stop-start humanitarian aid paradigm,” he said. “We need to have a long-term solution around access and, just as importantly, we have to have concentrated attention so that those who want to get out of Karabakh can still do so.”

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    Gabriel Gavin

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  • The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict explained

    The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict explained

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    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    Fierce firefights and heavy shelling echo once again around the mountains of Nagorno-Karabakh, an isolated region at the very edge of Europe that has seen several major wars since the fall of the Soviet Union.

    On Tuesday, the South Caucasus nation of Azerbaijan announced its armed forces launched “local anti-terrorist activities” in Nagorno-Karabakh, which is inside Azerbaijan’s borders but is controlled as a breakaway state by its ethnic Armenian population.

    Now, with fighting raging and allegations of an impending “genocide” reaching fever pitch, all eyes are on the decades-old conflict that threatens to draw in some of the world’s leading military powers.

    What is happening?

    For weeks, Armenia and international observers have warned that Azerbaijan was massing its armed forces along the heavily fortified line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh, preparing to stage an offensive against local ethnic Armenian troops. Clips shared online showed Azerbaijani vehicles daubed with an upside-down ‘A’-symbol, reminiscent of the ‘Z’ sign painted onto Russian vehicles ahead of the invasion of Ukraine last year.

    In the early hours of Tuesday, Karabakh Armenian officials reported a major offensive by Azerbaijan was underway, with air raid sirens sounding in Stepankert, the de facto capital. The region’s estimated 100,000 residents have been told by Azerbaijan to “evacuate” via “humanitarian corridors” leading to Armenia. However, Azerbaijani forces control all of the entry and exit points and many locals fear they will not be allowed to pass safely.

    Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s top foreign policy advisor, Hikmet Hajiyev, insisted to POLITICO the “goal is to neutralize military infrastructure” and denied civilians were being targeted. However, unverified photographs posted online appear to show damaged apartment buildings, and the Karabakh Armenian human rights ombudsman, Gegham Stepanyan, reported several children have been injured in the attacks.

    Concern is growing over the fate of the civilians effectively trapped in the crossfire, as well as the risk of yet another full-blown war in the former Soviet Union.

    How did we get here?

    During the Soviet era, Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous region inside the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic, home to both ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis, but the absence of internal borders made its status largely unimportant. That all changed when Moscow lost control of its peripheral republics, and Nagorno-Karabakh was formally left inside Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territory.

    Amid the collapse of the USSR from 1988 to 1994, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces fought a grueling series of battles over the region, with the Armenians taking control of swathes of land and forcing the mass exodus of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Azerbaijanis, razing several cities to the ground. Since then, citing a 1991 referendum — boycotted by Azerbaijanis — the Karabakh-Armenians have unilaterally declared independence and maintained a de facto independent state.

    For nearly three decades that situation remained stable, with the two sides locked in a stalemate that was maintained by a line of bunkers, landmines and anti-tank defenses, frequently given as an example of one of the world’s few “frozen conflicts.”

    However, that all changed in 2020, when Azerbaijan launched a 44-day war to regain territory, conquering hundreds of square kilometers around all sides of Nagorno-Karabakh. That left the ethnic Armenian exclave connected to Armenia proper by a single road, the Lachin Corridor — supposedly under the protection of Russian peacekeepers as part of a Moscow-brokered ceasefire agreement.

    What is the blockade?

    With Russia’s ability to maintain the status quo rapidly dwindling in the face of its increasingly catastrophic war in Ukraine, Azerbaijan has moved to take control of all access to the region. In December, as part of a dispute supposedly over illegal gold mining, self-declared “eco-activists” — operating with the support of the country’s authoritarian government — staged a sit-in on the road, stopping civilian traffic and forcing the local population to rely on Russian peacekeepers and the Red Cross for supplies.

    That situation has worsened in the past two months, with an Azerbaijani checkpoint newly erected on the Lachin Corridor refusing to allow the passage of any humanitarian aid, save for the occasional one-off delivery. In August, amid warnings of empty shelves, malnourishment and a worsening humanitarian crisis, Luis Moreno Ocampo, the former chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, published a report calling the situation “an ongoing genocide.”

    Azerbaijan denies it is blockading Nagorno-Karabakh, with Hajiyev telling POLITICO the country was prepared to reopen the Lachin Corridor if the Karabakh-Armenians accepted transport routes from inside Azerbaijani-held territory. Aliyev has repeatedly called on Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh to stand down, local politicians to resign and those living there to accept being ruled as part of Azerbaijan.

    Why have things escalated now?

    Over the past few months, the U.S., EU and Russia have urged Azerbaijan to keep faith during diplomatic talks designed to end the conflict once and for all, rather than seeking a military solution to assert control over the entire region.

    As part of the talks in Washington, Brussels and Moscow, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made a series of unprecedented concessions, going as far as recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory. However, his government maintains it cannot sign a peace deal that does not include internationally guaranteed rights and securities for the Karabakh-Armenians.

    The situation has worsened in the past two months, with an Azerbaijani checkpoint newly erected on the Lachin Corridor refusing to allow the passage of any humanitarian aid | Tofik babayev/AFP via Getty Images

    Aliyev has rejected any such arrangement outright, insisting there should be no foreign presence on Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory. He insists that as citizens of Azerbaijan, those living there will have the same rights as any other citizen — but has continued fierce anti-Armenian rhetoric including describing the separatists as “dogs,” while the government issued a postage stamp following the 2020 war featuring a worker in a hazmat suit “decontaminating” Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Unwilling to accept the compromise, Azerbaijan has accused Armenia of stalling the peace process. According to former Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, a military escalation is needed to force an agreement. “It can be a short-term clash, or it can be a war,” he added.

    Facing growing domestic pressure amid dwindling supplies, former Karabakh-Armenian President Arayik Harutyunyan stood down and called elections, lambasted as a provocation by Azerbaijan and condemned by the EU, Ukraine and others.

    Azerbaijan also alleged Armenian saboteurs were behind landmine blasts it says killed six military personnel in the region, while presenting no evidence to support the claim.

    What’s Russia doing?

    Armenia is formally an ally of Russia, and a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military bloc. However, Russian peacekeepers deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh have proven entirely unwilling or unable to keep Azerbaijani advances in check, while Moscow declined to offer Pashinyan the support he demanded after strategic high ground inside Armenia’s borders were captured in an Azerbaijani offensive last September.

    Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko previously said Azerbaijan has better relations with the CSTO than Armenia, despite not being a member, and described Aliyev as “our guy.”

    Since then, Armenia — the most democratic country in the region — has sought to distance itself from the Kremlin, inviting in an EU civilian observer mission to the border. That strategy has picked up pace in recent days, with Pashinyan telling POLITICO in an interview that the country can no longer rely on Russia for its security. Instead, the South Caucasus nation has dispatched humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Pashinyan’s wife visited Kyiv to show her support, while hosting U.S. troops for exercises.

    Moscow, which has a close economic and political relationship with Azerbaijan, reacted furiously, summoning the Armenian ambassador.

    In a message posted on Telegram on Tuesday, Dmitry Medvedev, former president of Russia and secretary of its security council, said Pashinyan “decided to blame Russia for his botched defeat. He gave up part of his country’s territory. He decided to flirt with NATO, and his wife took biscuits to our enemies. Guess what fate awaits him…”

    Who supports whom?

    The South Caucasus is a tangled web of shifting alliances.

    Russia aside, Armenia has built close relations with neighboring Iran, which has vowed to protect it, as well as India and France. French President Emmanuel Macron has previously joined negotiations in support of Pashinyan and the country is home to a large and historic Armenian diaspora.

    Azerbaijan, meanwhile, operates on a “one nation, two states” basis with Turkey, with which it has deep cultural, linguistic and historical ties. It also receives large shipments of weaponry and military hardware from Israel, while providing the Middle Eastern nation with gas.

    The EU has turned to Azerbaijan to help replace Russia as a provider of energy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made an official visit to the capital, Baku, last summer in a bid to secure increased exports of natural gas, describing the country as a “reliable, trustworthy partner.”

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    Gabriel Gavin

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  • Azerbaijan agrees to reopen Lachin Corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh

    Azerbaijan agrees to reopen Lachin Corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh

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    YEREVAN, Armenia — Azerbaijan has agreed to reopen the only highway linking Armenia to the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh provided local leaders accept aid from Azerbaijan as well, a senior Azerbaijani official told POLITICO on Saturday.

    The news comes after authorities in the ethnic Armenian-controlled exclave — inside Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders — announced earlier in the day that it would accept humanitarian shipments from the Russian Red Cross via an alternative road from Aghdam, inside Azerbaijani government-held territory.

    According to Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, “Azerbaijan expressed its consent as a goodwill gesture to ensure simultaneous opening” of the so-called Lachin Corridor for ICRC cargo. The road connects the mountainous territory to Armenia. The acceptance, he said, would pave the way for a separate deal to allow passage from Armenia. “In the Lachin checkpoint, Azerbaijan’s customs and border regime must be observed,” he said.

    For close to two months, aid organizations including the Red Cross have said they have been unable to transport supplies of food and fuel into Nagorno-Karabakh, despite a 2020 ceasefire agreement between the two sides guaranteeing free use of the road under the supervision of Russian peacekeepers. With essential provisions running low, local Armenians say a humanitarian crisis is already unfolding and the former chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno Ocampo, last month issued a report warning that a “genocide” was under way.

    Both the U.S. and the EU have urged Azerbaijan to reopen the Lachin Corridor. The South Caucasus country denies it is orchestrating a blockade, and has insisted the Karabakh Armenians must accept humanitarian supplies from inside Azerbaijan.

    Arayik Harutyunyan, the former de facto president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, told POLITICO in July that he would refuse to accept the supplies despite a deteriorating humanitarian situation because “Azerbaijan created this crisis and cannot be the solution to it.”

    Harutyunyan, who resigned last month amid the ongoing crisis, was due to be replaced on Saturday in a presidential election. However, according to Hajiyev, the “sham elections” are a “serious setback and counterproductive” for the situation.

    Instead, he reiterated a call from the Azerbaijani government for the Karabakh Armenians to lay down their arms and accept being governed as part of Azerbaijan. “It is the only way to a lasting peace where Armenian and Azerbaijani residents of Karabakh can live and coexist,” he said.

    Hajiyev later clarified in a statement on social media that the Lachin Corridor would not be opened immediately, but under the terms of a deal allowing indefinite access for Azerbaijani aid from Aghdam.

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    Gabriel Gavin

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  • No breakthrough in Armenia, Azerbaijan peace talks in Russia

    No breakthrough in Armenia, Azerbaijan peace talks in Russia

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    MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on Monday to try to broker a settlement to a longstanding conflict between the two ex-Soviet neighbors, but announced no breakthrough.

    The peace talks took place as Putin’s military delivered a new missile barrage targeting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in the conflict that has entered its ninth month.

    After meetings with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi, Putin said they had to remove continuing points of disagreement from a prepared statement that was to have formed the basis of a peace deal. He called the meetings “very useful” but declined to answer a reporter’s question about the remaining sticking points, saying they were too delicate to discuss publicly.

    Before the meeting with Pashinyan, Putin had said the goals would be to ensure peace and stability, and unblock transportation infrastructure to help Armenia’s economic and social development.

    A joint statement released after the talks said the two sides pledged to refrain from the use of force, to negotiate issues based on respect for each other’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders. It said Armenia and Azerbaijan would work to normalize relations, foster peace and stability, as well as the security and economic development of their region.

    Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is part of Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a separatist war there ended in 1994.

    “We see the approaches of our colleagues to what is happening on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and around Karabakh,” Putin said Monday. “This conflict has been going on for a decade, so we still need to end it.”

    The meetings concern implementation of a 2020 peace deal that Russia brokered. During a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan reclaimed broad swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories that Armenian forces held for decades. More than 6,700 people died in the fighting. Moscow deployed about 2,000 troops to the region to serve as peacekeepers.

    Pashinyan said Monday that he would press for Azerbaijan to withdraw its troops from the Russian peacekeeping zone in Nagorno-Karabakh, and seek freedom for Armenian prisoners of war. An extension of the Russian peacekeeping mandate was also under discussion, Russian state news agencies reported. Putin told reporters afterward that extension of Russia’s peacekeeping mission would depend on resolution of other issues.

    A new round of hostilities erupted in September, when more than 200 troops were killed on both sides. Armenia and Azerbaijan traded blame for triggering the fighting.

    Russia is Armenia’s top ally and sponsor. In a delicate balancing act, it maintains a military base in Armenia but also has developed warm ties with Azerbaijan.

    In an apparent reflection of tensions with Armenia’s leadership, Putin noted last Thursday that the Kremlin had advised Pashinyan’s government before the 2020 hostilities to agree to a compromise in which Armenian forces would give up Azerbaijani lands outside Nagorno-Karabakh that they seized in the early 1990s. Putin lamented that “the Armenian leadership has taken a different path.”

    During the 2020 fighting, Azerbaijan reclaimed not only those territories but significant chunks of Nagorno-Karabakh proper.

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  • Putin to host leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan for talks

    Putin to host leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan for talks

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    MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin will host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to help broker a settlement to a longstanding conflict between the two ex-Soviet neighbors, the Kremlin said Friday.

    Putin’s talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will be held at the Russian leader’s Black Sea residence in Sochi on Monday.

    The Kremlin said the leaders will discuss the implementation of a 2020 peace deal brokered by Russia and “further steps to enhance stability and security in the Caucasus,” adding that “the issues related to the restoration and development of trade and economic and transport links will also be discussed.”

    The ex-Soviet neighbors have been locked in a decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is part of Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a separatist war there ended in 1994.

    During a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan reclaimed broad swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories held by Armenian forces. More than 6,700 people died in the fighting, which ended with a Russian-brokered peace agreement. Moscow deployed about 2,000 troops to the region to serve as peacekeepers.

    A new round of hostilities erupted in September, when more than 200 troops were killed on both sides in two days of heavy fighting. Armenia and Azerbaijan traded blame for triggering the fighting.

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