STOW — With the unofficial start of summer behind us, State Fire Marshal Jon M. Davine is asking residents to practice outdoor fire safety in the weeks and months ahead.
“As the weather gets warmer and we start spending more time outside, outdoor fires also start to increase,” Davine said. “Unfortunately, many of these fires cause serious injuries and property damage – but almost all of them can be prevented.”
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If you had trouble getting gas during a very rainy Monday, you weren’t alone. Here’s why that may have been the case.
KABC
LOS ANGELES (KABC) — If you had trouble getting gas during a very rainy Monday, you weren’t alone.
Eyewitness News received reports from several people saying they pulled into a gas station, only to find pumps cordoned off and out of service.
So what’s the problem?
One gas station attendant told us it’s the rain. He says the pumps have sensors to detect gas leaks. When too much water gets in, it triggers the sensors even though there is no leak. That shuts down the pumps.
The attendant said it’s just a matter of getting someone in to drain the water to get the pumps working again.
Fuel prices, with the cost of gasoline and diesel at the pump both down from a month ago, don’t appear to be fazed by the escalating risks to oil supplies in the Middle East from the Israel-Hamas war, but they are.
The decline in fuel prices seen nationally is actually a “bit above what would be ‘normal’ for this time of year,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. However, he believes “prices won’t fall as far as they would have had the attacks on Israel not happened.”
On Friday, the average retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.528, down 5.7 cents from a week ago, while the average retail diesel price was at $4.465 a gallon on Friday, down 7.8 cents from Sept. 30, according to data from GasBuddy.
U.S. retail gasoline prices have fallen so far this month.
GasBuddy
“Geopolitical risk is now heightened, changing the calculus” for the fuel market, said Brian Milne, product manager, editor and analyst at DTN.
‘Seasonal component’
In considering retail gasoline prices during the fourth quarter, the “seasonal component is less pronounced than in years past,” said Milne. Demand for gasoline tends to fall following the summer travel season. Combined with a “strong slate of refinery maintenance,” which led to less fuel supply on the market, the rise in crude oil prices has slowed the decline in fuel prices, said Milne.
If not for the heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, he said he might have expected to see gasoline prices decline by another 30 cents to 40 cents per gallon into late December because of lower demand.
Retail gas prices may fall another 20 cents a gallon or more, depending on the location within the U.S., if we avoid broader hostilities in the Middle East, said Milne.
However, if a conflict breaks out beyond Israel and the Gaza Strip, gasoline prices are likely to move sharply higher because of a spike in crude costs, he said.
For its part, oil has seen volatile trading following the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, with futures prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude CLZ23, -0.42%
For now, California, which typically is among the states that pays the most per-gallon for gasoline partly due to taxes on the fuel, is seeing prices “plummet” — down nearly 60 cents in the last three weeks, said GasBuddy’s De Haan.
“The West Coast is certainly seeing a much larger decline than is ‘normal’ and it’s due to the refinery situation now improving drastically,” as well as California’s RVP waiver, he said.
The California Air Resources Board allowed gasoline sold or supplied for use in California that exceeds the RVP, or Reid Vapor Pressure, limits through the end of Oct. 31, marking an early transition for the state from the lower RVP gas used in the summer to help cut gasoline emissions to the higher RVP gas used in the winter.
On Friday, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in California sold for $5.476, GasBuddy data show. That’s down 16.7 cents in just the last week.
Gas price outlook
De Haan said he does not expect to see a spike in gas prices nationally at this point, and there’s still room for prices to fall — just not as much following the Hamas attack on Israel.
“If we get to November and Iran gets involved in the situation, then we certainly could see gas prices impacted in some way as the current drops will likely be fully passed on by then, giving stations no ‘room’ to absorb higher prices reflected by a potential rise in oil,” said De Haan.
Still, falling demand, as well as “seasonality in general,” are what are pushing prices down, “enhanced by refinery improvements in areas” that saw price surges, he said.
Prices may even fall further after refinery maintenance season wraps up in mid-November, and refiners have to find places to put even more gasoline output, said De Haan.
He’s comfortable with the gasoline price forecasts GasBuddy issued in December of last year, which predicted a monthly national average for the fuel of $3.53 for October — matching the current price. The forecast also called for an average of $3.36 a gallon for November and $3.17 for December.
GasBuddy doesn’t have a forecast for 2024 yet, but prices may look similar to this year, as long as the situation in the Middle East doesn’t further crumble,” said De Haan.
View on diesel
Diesel, however, is another story.
Price for that fuel have dropped by 85.5 cents a gallon from a year ago to Friday’s $4.465 level, GasBuddy data show.
U.S. retail diesel prices are sharply lower than a year ago.
GasBuddy
While down from a year ago, diesel prices are currently at a “very high level historically” because global supply is low, said DTN’s Milne.
At this time in 2022 diesel fuel inventory was even tighter than it is now, and Europe was heading into winter without Russian natural gas after it was cutoff following the invasion of Ukraine, he said.
That led to a spike in natural-gas prices and prices for gasoil, a European heating oil, also surged, lifting heating oil and diesel prices globally, explained Milne.
Like gasoline, diesel prices could move “sharply higher if the war in Israel expands, and oil flow is put at greater risk,” he said.
De Haan, meanwhile, said diesel prices could climb closer to $5 a gallon if there’s a “squeeze,” with relief then [coming] in the spring/summer” seasons.
The Manhattan Institute’s Mark Mills and InOrbis CEO Rosario Fortugno debate the resolution, “Between now and 2035, electric vehicles in the consumer market will disappoint environmentalists by remaining a product bought mainly by the well-heeled minority.”
Taking the negative is Fortugno, the CEO of InOrbis, a company that works to develop technologies for electric vehicle fleet management, autonomous vehicles, and machine learning. He blogs at ApplyingAI.com on the topics of free markets, electric vehicle adoption, and the benefits of artificial intelligence.
The numbers: The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment inched down to a preliminary August reading of 71.2 after hitting a 22-month high of 71.6 in the prior month.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected sentiment to inch up to a 71.7 reading in August.
Another key part of the report is the U. of M. measure of inflation expectations.
According to the report, Americans’ expectations for overall inflation over the next year slipped to 3.3% in August from 3.4% in the prior month, while expectations for inflation over the next 5 years inched down to 2.9% from 3%.
Key details: According to the Michigan report, a gauge of U.S. consumers’ views on current conditions rose to to 77.4 in August from 76.6 in the prior month, while a barometer of their future expectations fell to 67.3 from 68.3.
Big picture: Sentiment has been boosted by waning recession fears and disinflation in grocery store prices.
What the University of Michigan said: “Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged from July, with small offsetting increases and decreases within the index. In general, consumers perceived few material differences in the economic environment from last month, but they saw substantial improvements relative to just three months ago,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of University of Michigan consumer surveys.
SPX
were mixed in early trading Friday while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
rose to 4.12%, the highest level since the spike last week after Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating.
BETHESDA, MD—According to a new report released Friday by researchers at the National Institutes of Health, the tobacco industry knew about the harmful effects of flicking a lit cigarette into a giant trail of gasoline for years, but chose to remain quiet. “For decades, Big Tobacco knew that tossing just one lit cigarette a day onto a puddle of gasoline could cause massively averse health risks, yet they deliberately concealed that knowledge,” said report coauthor Gregory Cordova, who accused the industry of conspiring as early as 1959 to bury evidence that using their products to ignite a pool of gasoline, causing an entire city block to explode could be detrimental to consumers’ health. “Internal documents show the tobacco lobby funded their own studies attempting to prove that setting a pool of gas on fire with a cigarette was not only safe, but good for you. They even advertised to children, creating ads that depicted Joe Camel saying, “Sayonara, suckers!” while tossing a cigarette over his shoulder into a room doused in gasoline.” At press time, the National Institutes of Health were questioning how long the processed food industry had known that cyanide capsules could be dissolved in sugary soft drinks.
Inspiring! Big Tobacco Execs Celebrate Teen Vaping With Epic PR Song
Surprise crude oil production cuts from Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich countries shouldn’t produce worries of skyrocketing gas costs for U.S. drivers still smarting from last year’s pump price shocks, according to fuel industry experts.
At a time when gas prices are already increasing because of rising seasonal demand, the slashed crude oil output that Saudi Arabia announced Sunday will translate into higher prices, they say. But compared to last year — when energy markets were absorbing the initial impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the altitude on those gas price increases may not feel so steep.
On Monday, the national average for a gallon of gas was $3.50, according to AAA. That’s around 10 cents more than a month ago, but almost 70 cents less than the $4.19 average cost one year ago.
The effects of decreased oil production could translate into initial price increases of up to 15 cents per gallon, according to two different energy sector watchers.
There’s Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
At OPIS, an outlet focused on energy sector news and analytics, Chief Oil Analyst Denton Cinquegrana said he was previously expecting summer gas prices to average around $3.60.
“This move probably boosts that by about 10 – 15 cents to about $3.70-3.75/gal.” Cinquegrana told MarketWatch.
OPIS is owned by Dow Jones, which also owns MarketWatch.
It’s possible for gas price averages to hit around $3.60 in the next week or so, he said. The other 10 to 15 cents might filter into retail pump prices later this month or in early May, according to Cinquegrana.
The surprise move came from Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia. In Saudi Arabia, officials were reportedly “irritated” by recent remarks from U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm.
After the Biden administration tapped the country’s strategic petroleum reserve to combat last year’s high gas costs, Granholm said it will difficult to restock the reserve.
By May, more than 1 million barrels of oil a day will be slashed from output in the global energy markets. That’s in addition to OPEC+ production cuts announced last fall.
In cost breakdowns for a gallon of gas, the price of crude oil is responsible for more than half the price tag, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
In Monday morning trading, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery jumped 6% to just over $80 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
For context, when gas prices were breaking records last year, the costs of West Texas Intermediate crude were in the triple digits. While retail prices surged in early March 2022, West Texas Intermediate crude briefly traded for more than $130 during the trading day on March 7, 2022.
The national average for a gallon of gas hit a record $5.01 in mid-June, according to AAA. In the current context, Cinquegrana doesn’t see a return to $5 gas averages, he said. Gas prices vary across the nation. California drivers are paying $4.80 on average while Mississippi drivers are paying $3.02 per gallon.
Even if price increases are not as sharp as last year, hot inflation is retreating slowly. So any extra costs are unwelcome to millions of American drivers who are living their lives and more frequently commuting to the office.
Like last year, oil prices are poised to increase, said AAA spokesman Devin Gladden.
But the economy’s background noise right now could dampen the impact as downturn worries keep sticking around, he added. Furthermore, there can be discrepancies in the announced production reductions and the amounts that are actually reduced, Gladden said.
“If recessionary concerns persist in the market, oil price increases may be limited due to the market believing lower oil demand will lead to lower prices this year,” he said.
On Monday, energy sector stocks and related exchange traded funds were climbing after the production cut news. In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.81%
was up more than 200 points, or 0.7%, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.03%
is little changed and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.98%
dropped 100 points, or 0.8%.
investors may soon get a read on one of the company’s better deals in the past decade—a 2017 purchase for nearly $3 billion of a 38.6% interest in Pilot Flying J, the country’s leading operator of truck stops.
The Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK/A, BRK/B) stake in the company will rise to 80% in the current quarter under the terms of the original agreement reached by CEO Warren Buffett with the founding Haslam family, which will retain the remaining 20% stake.
