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  • Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott Assesses 21 Categories Ahead of Thanksgiving

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    A NOTE FROM SCOTT Since our last check-in, just about every current Oscar hopeful descended on Hollywood for the Academy’s Governors Awards on Nov. 16. They ostensibly were there to celebrate honorees Tom Cruise, Dolly Parton, Wynn Thomas and Debbie Allen, but let’s be honest: Leonardo DiCaprio (Warners’ One Battle After Another), Jennifer Lawrence (Mubi’s Die My Love), Adam Sandler (Netflix’s Jay Kelly) and Ariana Grande (Universal’s Wicked: For Good) don’t show up to the ceremony every year. They — and literally hundreds of others with varying awards prospects — were on the red carpet and in the ballroom because they’re great places to see and be seen by Oscar voters.

    So, too, was the American Cinematheque Award ceremony on Nov. 20, where Michael B. Jordan, star of Warners’ Sinners, was honored, and those toasting him included Sinners writer/director Ryan Coogler and actors Miles Caton and Delroy Lindo; Bradley Cooper, writer/director/star of Searchlight’s Is This Thing On?; and Tessa Thompson, star/producer of Amazon/MGM’s Hedda. It was but one of numerous Sinners-related events in recent days. Among others, Coogler received the “key” to Warner Bros. at the Somerville restaurant in the Windsor Hills part of LA — which was transformed into the Juke Joint, the Southern blues hall in the movie — on Nov. 21, with the rest of his principal collaborators in attendance. And on Nov. 22, they all turned up at a brunch at the Four Seasons in Beverly Hills.

    Warners’ other major horse in the race, One Battle After Another, may be the frontrunner according to most prognosticators, including yours truly, and indeed it got another nod of approval last week from the retiree demographic with a field-leading eight AARP Award nominations. But Sinners, which cost a lot less ($90 million vs. $140 million, pre-marketing) and has grossed a lot more ($368 million vs. $202 million worldwide), clearly won’t be conceding the pole position without a fight. Another sign of its strength: it landed a field-leading 13 mentions across the Critics Choice Association’s 11 shortlists for below-the-line Critics Choice Award nominations, including at least one in every category. (Full disclosure: I served on the committee that determined those shortlists.)

    A24’s Marty Supreme, in addition to having an orange blimp with its name on it flying all around LA, has finally begun to screen more heavily for the industry, and is going over like gangbusters. On Nov. 13, it played at the DGA, after which Bill Simmons moderated a Q&A. The following night, despite pouring rain, it filled the 952-seat David Geffen Theatre at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures — attendees included Jennifer Lawrence, Mikey Madison, Cara Delevingne, Shawn Mendes and Chase Sui Wonders — after which I did a Q&A with writer/director/editor Josh Safdie, writer/editor Ronald Bronstein and stars Timothée Chalamet, Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion, among others.

    On Nov. 21, the Academy announced the longlists — meaning, the lists of all titles that have qualified for consideration — for its best animated feature, best documentary feature and best international feature categories, which numbered 35, 201 and 86, respectively.

    Speaking of the doc feature race, that came into clearer focus last week with Netflix’s Apocalypse in the Tropics garnering a field-leading four noms for the International Documentary Association’s IDA Awards (just as one of its subjects, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, was arrested for attempting to escape a prison sentence). Another Netflix doc, The Perfect Neighbor, was shortlisted for the best film editing Critic Choice Award, while no other doc landed a spot on any of the organization’s 11 BTL shortlistsn. And the SCAD Savannah Film Festival released this year’s full Docs to Watch Panel, which was moderated by yours truly and featured the directors of 10 top docs — including the aforementioned two — in conversation about their films. Don’t miss it!

    As for the general public? Last weekend, they turned out in mass for the theatrical opening weekend of Wicked: For Good, to the tune of $147 million in the U.S. and $223 million globally, marking the biggest debut ever for a Broadway adaptation and the third-best for any musical. (Critics, it must be noted, were less enthusiastic: it’s now at 70 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.) In terms of streaming, Frankenstein was again the people’s choice on Netflix, watched more than any other English-language film, while newcomer Train Dreams, on the back of rave reviews (it’s at 95 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), broke into the top 10.

    Finally, the Camerimage festival in Poland, which celebrates cinematography, awarded its top prize, the Golden Frog, to Judith Kaufmann for her work on Music Box’s Late Shift, the Swiss entry for the best international feature competition, and its second-place prize, the Silver Frog, to Fabian Gamper for his work on Mubi’s Sound of Falling, the German entry. Will they be able to challenge, for Oscar nominations, the category’s presumptive frontrunners, including Focus’ Hamnet, One Battle After Another and Frankenstein? Time will tell.

    Have a happy Thanksgiving!

    PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.

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    Scott Feinberg

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  • Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Oscar Projections Post Golden Globes and SAG and DGA Awards Nominations

    Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Oscar Projections Post Golden Globes and SAG and DGA Awards Nominations

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    PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

    * * *

    Best Picture

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
    2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
    3. Poor Things (Searchlight)
    4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
    5. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
    6. The Holdovers (Focus)
    7. Past Lives (A24)
    8. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
    9. Maestro (Netflix)
    10. The Zone of Interest (A24)

    Major Threats
    11. Society of the Snow (Netflix)
    12. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
    13. May December (Netflix)
    14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    15. Rustin (Netflix)

    Possibilities
    16. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
    17. Air (Amazon/MGM)
    18. Origin (Neon)
    19. Ferrari (Neon)

    Best Director

    Frontrunners
    1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
    2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
    3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
    4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
    5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

    Major Threats
    6. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
    7. Celine Song (Past Lives)
    8. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
    9. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
    10. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
    11. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)

    Possibilities
    12. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
    13. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn) — podcast
    14. J.A. Bayona (Society of the Snow)
    15. Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
    16. Ava DuVernay (Origin) — podcast
    17. Michael Mann (Ferrari)

    Best Actor

    Frontrunners
    1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast
    2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
    3. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
    4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
    5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

    Major Threats
    6. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
    7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
    8. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)

    Possibilities
    9. Matt Damon (Air)
    10. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast
    11. Franz Rogowski (Passages)

    Best Actress

    Frontrunners
    1. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
    2. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
    3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
    4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
    5. Annette Bening (Nyad)

    Major Threats
    6. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
    7. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
    8. Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
    9. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast

    Possibilities
    10. Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves)
    11. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
    12. Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
    13. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Frontrunners
    1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
    2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
    3. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
    4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
    5. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

    Major Threats
    6. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
    7. Charles Melton (May December)
    8. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

    Possibilities
    9. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
    10. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
    11. Jamie Bell (All of Us Strangers)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Frontrunners
    1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
    2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) — podcast
    3. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast
    4. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
    5. Julianne Moore (May December) — podcast

    Major Threats
    6. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
    7. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
    8. America Ferrera (Barbie)
    9. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)

    Possibilities
    10. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)
    11. Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
    12. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
    13. Viola Davis (Air)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
    2. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
    3. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
    4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
    5. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)

    Major Threats
    6. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
    7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)
    8. Society of the Snow (J.A. Bayona, Nicolás Casariego, Jaime Marques & Bernat Vilaplana)

    Possibilities
    9. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
    10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
    11. Origin (Ava DuVernay)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Frontrunners
    1. Past Lives (Celine Song)
    2. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
    3. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
    4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
    5. May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)

    Major Threats
    6. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
    7. Air (Alex Convery)

    Possibilities
    8. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black & Julian Breece)
    9. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola)

    Best International Feature

    Frontrunners
    1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
    2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
    3. The Taste of Things (France)
    4. Four Daughters (Tunisia)
    5. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)

    Major Threats
    6. Perfect Days (Japan)
    7. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Godland (Iceland)
    Totem (Mexico)
    Io Capitano (Italy)
    Fallen Leaves (Finland)
    The Promised Land (Denmark)
    The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
    Amerikatsi (Armenia)
    The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Frontrunners
    1. American Symphony (Netflix)
    2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
    3. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
    4. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
    5. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)

    Major Threats
    6. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
    7. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
    8. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
    9. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    10. Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)

    Can’t Yet Call
    32 Sounds (Abramorama)
    Apolonia, Apolonia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project     (HBO)
    In the Rearview (Film Movement)
    A Still Small Voice (Abramorama)

    Best Animated Feature

    Frontrunners
    1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
    3. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
    4. Nimona (Netflix)
    5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)

    Major Threats
    6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
    7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
    8. Leo (Netflix)
    9. Wish (Disney)
    10. They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Amazing Maurice (Viva)
    Deep Sea (Viva)
    Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
    The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
    Migration (Illumination)
    Robot Dreams (Neon)
    Stopmotion (IFC)
    Suzume (Toho)
    Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)

    Best Cinematography

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
    3. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
    4. The Zone of Interest (Lukasz Zal)
    5. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)

    Major Threats
    6. Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)
    7. Saltburn (Linus Sandgren)
    8. The Color Purple (Dan Laustsen)
    9. Society of the Snow (Pedro Luque)
    10. Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt)
    11. Napoleon (Dariusz Wolski)

    Possibilities
    12. Past Lives (Shabier Kirchner)
    13. May December (Christopher Blauvelt)
    14. The Taste of Things (Jonathan Ricquebourg)
    15. The Holdovers (Eigil Byrid)
    16. Air (Robert Richardson)
    17. The Killer (Erik Messerschmidt)

    Best Costume Design

    Frontrunners
    1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
    2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
    4. The Color Purple (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)
    5. Wonka (Lindy Hemming)

    Major Threats
    6. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
    7. Maestro (Mark Bridges)
    8. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)
    9. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
    10. Priscilla (Stacey Battat)

    Possibilities
    11. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Ann Roth)
    12. Ferrari (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
    13. Asteroid City (Milena Canonero)
    14. Saltburn (Sophie Canale)
    17. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Trish Summerville)

    Best Film Editing

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
    2. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
    3. Barbie (Nick Houy)
    4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    5. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)

    Major Threats
    6. Maestro (Michelle Tesoro)
    7. Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)
    8. The Killer (Kirk Baxter)
    9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Michael Andrews)
    10. Past Lives (Keith Fraase)

    Possibilities
    11. Air (William Goldenberg)
    12. American Fiction (Hilda Rasula)
    13. The Zone of Interest (Paul Watts)
    14. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One (Eddie Hamilton)
    15. The Color Purple (Jon Poll)

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Frontrunners
    1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
    2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)
    4. Golda (Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue & Karen Hartley Thomas)
    5. Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)

    Major Threats
    6. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
    7. Ferrari (Elisabetta Arlotti, Nicolas Iles, Feredrico Martellacci & Leonardo Signoretti)
    8. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)
    9. Beau Is Afraid (Félix Larivière & Colin Penman)
    10. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (TBD)

    Best Original Score

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
    3. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
    4. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
    5. The Zone of Interest (Mica Levi)

    Major Threats
    6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)
    7. The Holdovers (Mark Orton)
    8. Elemental (Thomas Newman)
    9. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
    10. Society of the Snow (Michael Giacchino)

    Possibilities
    11. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
    12. American Symphony (Jon Batiste)
    13. The Boy and the Heron (Joe Hisaishi)
    14. The Color Purple (Kris Bowers)
    15. Saltburn (Anthony Willis)

    Best Original Song

    Frontrunners
    1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcasts (1 and 2)
    2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
    3. “Road to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz — podcast
    4. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
    5. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast

    Major Threats
    6. “Dance the Night” (Barbie), Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcasts (Lipa & Ronson)
    7. “High Life” (Flora and Son), John Carney & Gary Clark
    8. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son, John Carney, Gary Clark & Eve Hewson
    9. “Keep It Movin’” (The Color Purple), Denisia Andrews, Halle Bailey, Brittany Coney & Morten Ristorp
    10. “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo — podcast (Rodrigo)

    Possibilities
    11. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, Scott George
    12. “Quiet Eyes” (Past Lives), Zach Dawes & Sharon Von Etten
    13. “Am I Dreaming” (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse), Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Rakim Mayers, Landon Wayne & Leland Wayne
    14. “Superpower (I)” (The Color Purple), Terius Gesteelde-Diamant
    15. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City, Wes Anderson & Jarvis Cocker

    Best Production Design

    Frontrunners
    1. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
    2. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fish & Adam Willis)
    4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)
    5. Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)

    Major Threats
    6. Saltburn (Suzie Davis & Charlotte Diricks)
    7. Asteroid City (Kris Moran & Adam Stockhausen)
    8. Wonka (Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales)
    9. The Color Purple (Paul D. Austerberry & Larry Dias)
    10. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Arthur Max)
    11. Society of the Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)

    Possibilites
    12. The Zone of Interest (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)
    13. Ferrari (Maria Djurkovic & Sophie Phillips)
    14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Patrick O’Keefe)
    15. Priscilla (Patricia Cuccia & Tamara Deverell)
    16. Air (François Audouy & Jan Pascale)
    17. May December (Sam Lisenco & Jess Royal)

    Best Sound

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
    2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
    3. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & Bernard Weiser)
    4. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & Mark Ulano)
    5. Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & Nina Rice)

    Major Threats
    6. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)
    7. Napoleon (Stephane Bucher, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller & Oliver Tarney)
    8. The Killer (Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod & Stephen Urata)
    9. The Creator (Erik Aadahl, Tom Ozanich, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt & Dean Zupancic)
    10. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather & Chris Munro)

    Best Visual Effects

    Frontrunners
    1. Poor Things
    2. Society of the Snow
    3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
    4. The Creator
    5. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One

    Major Threats
    6. Napoleon
    7. Godzilla: Minus One
    8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
    9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
    10. Rebel Moon: Part One — A Child of Fire

    Best Animated Short

    Can’t Yet Call
    27     (ARTE Mediathek)
    Boom
    Eeva (Miyu)
    Humo (Smoke)
    I’m Hip
    A Kind of Testament
    Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)
    Letter to a Pig     (Miyu)
    Ninety-Five Senses
    Once Upon a Studio     (Disney)
    Our Uniform
    Pachyderme
    Pete     (The Criterion Channel)
    War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
    Wild Summon

    Best Documentary Short

    Frontrunners
    1. The ABCs of Book Banning (MTV) — podcast (Sheila Nevins)
    2. Camp Courage (Netflix)
    3. Deciding Vote (The New Yorker)
    4. The Barber of Little Rock (The New Yorker)
    5. Last Song from Kabul (MTV)

    Major Threats
    The Last Repair Shop     (L.A. Times/Searchlight)
    Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó     (Hulu)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Bear
    Between Earth & Sky     (POV)
    Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
    How We Get Free
    If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
    Island in Between
    Oasis     (New York Times Op-Docs)
    Wings of Dust     (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    Best Live-Action Short

    Frontrunners
    1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix)
    2. Strange Way of Life (Sony Classics) — podcast (Pedro Almodóvar)
    3. The After (Netflix) — podcast (David Oyelowo)

    Can’t Yet Call
    The Anne Frank Gift Shop     (Reboot)
    An Avocado Pit
    Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
    Dead Cat
    Good Boy
    Invincible
    Invisible Border
    Knight of Fortune     (The New Yorker)
    The One Note Man
    Red, White and Blue
    The Shepherd     (Disney)
    Yellow

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    Scott Feinberg

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  • Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Race Standings Post-Globe and Critics Choice Noms

    Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Race Standings Post-Globe and Critics Choice Noms

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    PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

    * * *

    Best Picture

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
    2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
    4. Poor Things (Searchlight)
    5. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
    6. Maestro (Netflix)
    7. Past Lives (A24)
    8. The Holdovers (Focus)
    9. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
    10. The Zone of Interest (A24)

    Major Threats
    11. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
    12. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
    13. May December (Netflix)
    14. Air (Amazon/MGM)
    15. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
    16. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)

    Possibilities
    17. Rustin (Netflix)
    18. The Iron Claw (A24)
    19. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)
    20. Origin (Neon)
    21. Ferrari (Neon)
    22. Priscilla (A24)

    Best Director

    Frontrunners
    1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
    2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
    3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
    4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
    5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

    Major Threats
    6. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
    7. Celine Song (Past Lives)
    8. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
    9. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
    10. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
    11. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

    Possibilities
    12. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
    13. Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
    14. Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
    15. Ava DuVernay (Origin)
    16. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
    17. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)

    Best Actor

    Frontrunners
    1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
    2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
    3. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
    4. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
    5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

    Major Threats
    6. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
    7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
    9. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
    10. Matt Damon (Air)
    11. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast

    Possibilities
    12. Franz Rogowski (Passages)
    13. Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)
    14. Adam Driver (Ferrari) — podcast
    15. Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)
    16. Michael Fassbender (The Killer)
    17. Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)

    Best Actress

    Frontrunners
    1. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
    2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
    3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
    4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
    5. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

    Major Threats
    6. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
    7. Annette Bening (Nyad)
    8. Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
    9. Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
    10. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
    11. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast

    Possibilities
    12. Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves)
    13. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
    14. Eve Hewson (Flora and Son)
    15. Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)
    16. Trace Lysette (Monica)
    17. Thomasin McKenzie (Eileen) — podcast

    Best Supporting Actor

    Frontrunners
    1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
    2. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
    3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
    4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
    5. Charles Melton (May December)

    Major Threats
    6. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
    7. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
    8. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
    9. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)
    10. Chris Messina (Air)

    Possibilities
    11. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
    12. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
    13. Ben Whishaw (Passages)
    14. John Magaro (Past Lives)
    15. Peter Sarsgaard (Memory)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Frontrunners
    1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
    2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
    3. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
    4. Julianne Moore (May December)
    5. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast

    Major Threats
    6. America Ferrera (Barbie)
    7. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
    8. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
    9. Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
    10. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)

    Possibilities
    11. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
    12. Viola Davis (Air)
    13. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
    14. Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
    15. Anne Hathaway (Eileen)
    16. Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcast

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
    2. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
    4. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
    5. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)

    Major Threats
    6. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
    7. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
    8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
    9. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)

    Possibilities
    10. The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
    11. Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum)
    12. Nyad (Julia Cox)
    13. Ferrari (Troy Kennedy Martin)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Frontrunners
    1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
    2. Past Lives (Celine Song)
    3. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
    4. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)
    5. May December (Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik)

    Major Threats
    6. Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
    7. Air (Alex Convery)
    8. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
    9. Origin (Ava DuVernay)

    Possibilities
    10. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)
    11. Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
    12. Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)
    13. Flora and Son (John Carney)
    14. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)

    Best International Feature

    Frontrunners
    1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
    2. The Taste of Things (France)
    3. Society of the Snow (Spain)
    4. Four Daughters (Tunisia)
    5. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)

    Major Threats
    6. Perfect Days (Japan)
    7. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Blaga’s Lessons (Bulgaria)
    Fallen Leaves (Finland)
    Shayda (Australia)
    Io Capitano (Italy)
    Godland (Iceland)
    The Promised Land (Denmark)
    In the Shadow of Beirut (Ireland)
    About Dry Grasses (Turkey)
    Thunder (Switzerland)
    The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
    Brothers (Czech Republic)
    Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World (Romania)
    Traces (Croatia)
    Voy! Voy! Voy! (Egypt)
    Sweet Dreams (Netherlands)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Frontrunners
    1. American Symphony (Netflix)
    2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
    3. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
    4. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
    5. Kokomo City (Magnolia)

    Rest of the Shortlist
    6. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
    7. The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
    8. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
    9. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
    10. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
    11. The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
    12. The Mission (Nat Geo)
    13. Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
    14. Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
    15. Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)

    Possibilities
    16. The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
    17. Every Body (Focus)
    18. Occupied City (A24)
    19. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    20. King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    21. The League (Magnolia)
    22. Joan Baez: I Am a Noise (Magnolia)

    Can’t Yet Call
    32 Sounds (Abramorama)
    Black Ice (Lionsgate)
    A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
    Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story (HBO)
    Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    In the Rearview (Film Movement)
    In the Shadow of Beirut (Cyprus Avenue)
    Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)
    Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)
    Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
    The Mother of All Lies (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)
    Periodical (MSNBC)
    Smoke Sauna Sisterhood (Greenwich)
    A Still Small Voice (Abramorama)
    Uncharitable (Abramorama)
    What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (Abramorama)
    While We Watched (PBS)
    Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)

    Best Animated Feature

    Frontrunners
    1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
    3. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
    4. Nimona (Netflix)
    5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)

    Major Threats
    6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
    7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
    8. Leo (Netflix)
    9. Wish (Disney)
    10. They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Amazing Maurice (Viva)
    Deep Sea (Viva)
    Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
    The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
    Migration (Illumination)
    Robot Dreams (Neon)
    Stopmotion (IFC)
    Suzume (Toho)
    Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)

    Best Cinematography

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
    3. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
    4. Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)
    5. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)

    Major Threats
    6. Saltburn (Linus Sandgren)
    7. The Zone of Interest (Łukasz Żal)
    8. The Color Purple (Dan Laustsen)
    9. Society of the Snow (Pedro Luque)
    10. Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt)
    11. Napoleon (Dariusz Wolski)
    12. Past Lives (Shabier Kirchner)

    Possibilities
    13. May December (Christopher Blauvelt)
    14. The Taste of Things (Jonathan Ricquebourg)
    15. The Holdovers (Eigil Byrid)
    16. All of Us Strangers (Jamie D. Ramsay)
    17. Air (Robert Richardson)
    18. The Killer (Erik Messerschmidt)
    19. El Conde (Ed Lachman)

    Best Costume Design

    Frontrunners
    1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
    2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
    4. The Color Purple (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)
    5. Wonka (Lindy Hemming)

    Major Threats
    6. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
    7. Priscilla (Stacey Battat)
    8. Maestro (Mark Bridges)
    9. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
    10. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)
    11. Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret (Ann Roth)

    Possibilities
    12. Ferrari (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
    13. Asteroid City (Milena Canonero)
    14. Saltburn (Sophie Canale)
    15. Rustin (Toni-Leslie James)
    16. Cassandro (María Estela Fernández)
    17. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Trish Summerville)

    Best Fim Editing

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    3. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
    4. Barbie (Nick Houy)
    5. Maestro (Michelle Tesoro)

    Major Threats
    6. Air (William Goldenberg)
    7. Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)
    8. American Fiction (Hilda Rasula)
    9. Past Lives (Keith Fraase)
    10. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
    11. The Zone of Interest (Paul Watts)

    Possibilities
    12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Michael Andrews)
    13. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One (Eddie Hamilton)
    14. The Color Purple (Jon Poll)
    15. The Killer (Kirk Baxter)
    16. May December (Affonso Gonçalves)
    17. Origin (Spencer Averick)

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Frontrunners
    1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
    2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
    3. Barbie (Ivana Primorac)
    4. Priscilla (Cliona Furey & Jo-Ann MacNeil)
    5. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)

    Rest of Shortlist
    6. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
    7. The Color Purple (Lawrence Davis & Carol Rasheed)
    8. Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas)
    9. Nyad (Ana María Andrickson, Jandeira Avirón, Felicity Bowring, Corey Castellano, Vanessa Colombo, Daniel Curet, Julie Hewett, Ann-Maree Hurley, Maha Lessner)
    10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Alexei Dmitriew & Cassie Russek)

    Possibilities
    11. Rustin (Melissa Forney & Beverly Jo Pryor)
    12. Ferrari (Marcelle Genovese, Marco Pompei, Aldo Signoretti & Scott Wheeler)
    13. The Little Mermaid (Camille Friend & Peter Smith King)
    14. The Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)
    15. The Iron Claw (Elle Favorule & Natalie Shea Rose)
    16. Wonka (David Darby, John Nolan & Ivana Primorac)
    17. Air (Luisa Abel & Carla Joi Farmer)
    18. The Creator (Francesca van der Feyst)
    19. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)

    Best Original Score

    Frontrunners
    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
    2. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
    3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)
    4. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
    5. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)

    Rest of Shortlist
    6. The Zone of Interest (Mica Levi)
    7. The Boy and the Heron (Joe Hisaishi)
    8. Elemental (Thomas Newman)
    9. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
    10. Society of the Snow (Michael Giacchino)
    11. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
    12. The Killer (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
    13. Origin (Kris Bowers)
    14. The Boys in the Boat (Alexandre Desplat)
    15. Nyad (Alexandre Desplat)

    Possibilities
    16. Past Lives (Christopher Bear & Daniel Rossen)
    17. Monster (Ryuichi Sakamoto)
    18. Saltburn (Anthony Willis)
    19. Wish (David Metzger)
    20. Ferrari (Daniel Pemberton)
    21. Rustin (Branford Marsalis)
    22. The Pigeon Tunnel (Philip Glass & Paul Leonard-Morgan) — podcast (Glass)
    24. A Haunting in Venice (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
    25. The Creator (Hans Zimmer) — podcast
    26. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Hans Zimmer) — podcast
    27. Napoleon (Martin Phipps)
    28. The Marvels (Laura Karpman)
    29. All of Us Strangers (Emilie Levienaise-Farrouch)
    30. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Brian Tyler)

    Best Original Song

    Frontrunners
    1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcast
    2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
    3. “Road to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz — podcast
    4. “This Wish” (Wish), Julia Michaels & Benjamin Rice
    5. “Peaches” (The Super Mario Bros. Move), Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond & John Spiker

    Rest of Shortlist
    6. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
    7. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast
    8. “For the First Time” (The Little Mermaid), Alan Menken & Lin-Manuel Miranda — podcast (Miranda)
    9. “Keep It Movin’” (The Color Purple), Denisia Andrews, Halle Bailey, Brittany Coney & Morten Ristorp
    10. “Dance the Night” (Barbie), Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcasts (Lipa & Ronson)
    11. “Addicted to Romance” (She Came to Me)
    12. “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo — podcast (Rodrigo)
    13. “High Life” (Flora and Son), John Carney & Gary Clark
    14. “Better Place” (Trolls Band Together), Amy Allen, Karl Schuster & Justin Timberlake — podcast (Timberlake)
    15. “Camp Isn’t Home” (Theater Camp), Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt & Mark Sonnenblick — podcast (Platt)

    Possibilities
    16. “Am I Dreaming” (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse), Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Rakim Mayers, Landon Wayne & Leland Wayne
    17. “Steal the Show” (Elemental), Ari Staprans “Lauv” Leff, Michael Matosic & Thomas Newman
    18. “I Am” (Origin), Te Kanapu Anasta, Michael Fatkin, Vince Harder & Stan Walker
    19. “A World of Your Own” (Wonka), Simon Farnabay, Neil Hannon & Paul King
    20. “Superpower (I)” (The Color Purple), Terius Gesteelde-Diamant
    21. “Out-Alpha the Alpha” (Dicks: The Musical), Megan Thee Stallion
    22. “The Scuttlebutt” (The Little Mermaid), Alan Menken & Lin-Manuel Miranda — podcast (Miranda)
    23. “Everything Is Gonna Be Alright” (Bobi Wine: The People’s President), Bobi Wine
    24. “Wounded Heart” (Silver Dollar Road), Ondara
    25. “Live That Way Forever” (The Iron Claw), Richard Reed & Laurel “Little Scream” Sprengelmeyer
    26. “All Love Is Love” (Dicks: The Musical), Aaron Jackson & Josh Sharp
    27. “Quiet Eyes” (Past Lives), Zach Dawes & Sharon Von Etten
    28. “Gonna Be You” (80 for Brady), Diane Warren — podcast

    Best Production Design

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
    2. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fish & Adam Willis)
    4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)
    5. Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)

    Major Threats
    6. Saltburn (Suzie Davis & Charlotte Diricks)
    7. Asteroid City (Kris Moran & Adam Stockhausen)
    8. Wonka (Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales)
    9. The Color Purple (Paul D. Austerberry & Larry Dias)
    10. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Arthur Max)
    11. Ferrari (Maria Djurkovic & Sophie Phillips)
    12. Society of the Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)

    Possibilites
    13. The Zone of Interest (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)
    14. The Taste of Things (Toma Baqueni)
    15. Anatomy of a Fall (Cécile Deleu & Emmanuelle Duplay)
    16. Priscilla (Patricia Cuccia & Tamara Deverell)
    17. Air (François Audouy & Jan Pascale)
    18. May December (Sam Lisenco & Jess Royal)
    19. Origin (Ina Mayhew & Jacqueline Jacobson Scarfo)
    20. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Patrick O’Keefe)

    Best Sound

    Frontrunners
    1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
    2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
    3. The Color Purple (Richard Bullock, Paul Massey, Steve Morrow, Julian Slater & Renee Tondelli)
    4. Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & Nina Rice)
    5. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & Bernard Weiser)

    Rest of Shortlist
    6. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & Mark Ulano)
    7. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)
    8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Juan Peralta, Geoffrey G. Rubay & Michael Semanick)
    9. Poor Things (Johnnie Burn & Tamás Dévényi)
    10. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Erik Aadahl, Ron Bartlett, Anna Behlmer, Simon Pidrette & Ethan Van Der Ryn)

    Possibilities
    11. Napoleon (Stephane Bucher, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller & Oliver Tarney)
    12. Wonka (Niv Adiri, Ben Barker, John Casali, Glenn Freemantle & Paul Massey)
    13. The Creator (Erik Aadahl, Tom Ozanich, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt & Dean Zupancic)
    14. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (David Acord, Christopher Boyes, Cheryl Nardi, Lee Orloff & Gary A. Rizzo)
    15. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather & Chris Munro)
    16. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Juan Peralta, Gary Rydstrom, Donald Sylvester & Stuart Wilson)
    17. Wish (David E. Fluhr & Shannon Mills)
    18. 32 Sounds (Mark A. Mangini)
    19. The Deepest Breath (Will Chapman, Greg Gettens & Chad Orororo)

    Best Visual Effects

    Frontrunners
    1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
    2. Poor Things
    3. The Creator
    4. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One
    5. Society of the Snow

    Rest of Shortlist
    6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
    7. Transformers: Rise of the Beats
    8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
    9. Rebel Moon: Part One — A Child of Fire
    10. Wonka

    Possibilities
    11. The Marvels
    12. Napoleon
    13. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
    14. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania
    15. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
    16. Barbie
    17. Killers of the Flower Moon
    18. Godzilla: Minus One
    19. The Boys in the Boat
    20. Nyad

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    Scott Feinberg

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