[ad_1]
Did you feel that outside on Wednesday morning? You weren’t dreaming, North Texas…
[ad_2]
Kelly Dearmore
Source link
Tag: El nino
-
Elephants, zebras, hippos among more than 700 animals being killed for meat in drought-stricken Namibia
[ad_1]
Namibia has authorized the culling of hundreds of animals, including elephants, as part of a plan to feed people in the drought-stricken southern African country.
About half of Namibia’s population is experiencing acute food insecurity, the United Nations said last month. Meat from the 723 culled animals will be distributed as part of a drought relief program, the country’s Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism announced Monday.
“This exercise [is] necessary and is in line with our constitutional mandate where our natural resources are used for the benefit of Namibian citizens,” the ministry said.
Namibia has experienced a 53% decline in cereal production and a nearly 70% reduction in dam water levels amid the drought, the United Nations said. A national state of emergency was declared on May 22.
Professional hunters and safari outfitters will handle the culling, which is being limited to national parks and communal areas with sustainable game numbers. The plan is to cull 30 hippos, 60 buffalos, 50 impalas, 100 blue wildebeest, 300 zebras, 83 elephants and 100 elands.
Officials said the culling will provide meat for people while also reducing the negative impact of drought on the conservation of wild animals, which are competing for grazing areas and water as the drought continues.
Other countries, such as Australia, have previously permitted the culling of animals. The country has approved the deaths of thousands of kangaroos over the years, with officials warning in the past that there wasn’t enough food available to support the population of kangaroos.
The severe drought in Namibia was brought on by El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when the Pacific Ocean experiences warmer-than-average surface temperatures. Climate change can exacerbate El Niño, leading to new record temperatures, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Increasing temperatures and inconsistent rainfall are two of the biggest threats to natural resources in Namibia, according to the World Wildlife Fund. Wildlife with access to fewer resources can also push into human settlements.
Namibia, in its release about the culling plan, noted that the National Conference on Human Wildlife Conflict Management in 2023 determined elephant numbers should be reduced as a way to cut down on human-wildlife conflict.
“With the severe drought situation in the country, conflicts are expected to increase if no interventions are made,” officials said.
[ad_2]
-
The Run of Record-Breaking Heat Has Ended, for Now
[ad_1]
But global warming doesn’t happen in a smooth progression. Like housing prices, the general trend is up, but there are ups and downs along the way.
Behind much of the ups and downs is the El Niño phenomenon. An El Niño event is a reorganization of the water across the vast reaches of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño is so important to the workings of worldwide weather, as it increases the temperature of the air on average across all of Earth’s surface, not only over the Pacific. Between El Niño events, conditions may be neutral or in an opposite state called La Niña that tends to cool global temperatures. The oscillation between these extremes is irregular, and El Niño conditions tend to recur after three to seven years.
The warm El Niño phase of this cycle began to kick in a year ago, reached its peak around the end of 2023, and is now trending neutral, which is why the record-breaking streak has ended.
The 2023–2024 El Niño was strong, but it wasn’t super-strong. It doesn’t fully explain the remarkable degree to which the past year broke temperature records. The exact influence of other factors has yet to be fully untangled.
We know there is a small positive contribution from the sun, which is in a phase of its 11-year sunspot cycle in which it radiates fractionally more energy to the Earth.
Methane (also a byproduct of the fossil fuel industry, alongside cattle and wetlands) is another important greenhouse gas, and its concentration in the air has risen more rapidly in the past decade than over the previous decade.
Scientists are also assessing how much measures to clean up air pollution might be adding to warming, since certain particulate air pollutants can reflect sunlight and influence the formation of clouds.
A Temperature Ratchet
Across the global ocean, 2023 was a devastating summer for coral reefs and surrounding ecosystems in the Caribbean and beyond. This was followed by heavy bleaching across the Great Barrier Reef off Australia during the southern hemisphere summer. While it is El Niño years that tend to see mass mortality events on reefs around the world, it is the underlying climate change trend that is the long-term threat, as corals are struggling to adapt to rising temperature extremes.
[ad_2]
Christopher Merchant
Source link -
Last Monday Was the Hottest Day on Record
[ad_1]
THIS ARTICLE IS republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
In the past week, Earth’s record for the hottest day was broken twice. Sunday, July 21, was declared Earth’s hottest day since records began, when average surface temperature reached 17.09 degrees Celsius. On Monday the record was broken again, when average temperatures reached 17.16 degrees Celsius—and Tuesday was almost as hot.
The declarations were made by Copernicus, the European climate change service. They made international headlines—especially in the northern hemisphere, which has been experiencing extreme summer heat.
Determining the global average temperature on any given day is complex. It involves thousands of observations using high-tech equipment and, in some cases, sophisticated computer models.
So let’s take at look at how scientists take the planet’s temperature, and what these broken records mean.
How We Know It’s Hot
The global average surface temperature is the main indicator used to track how the climate is changing, and is the measure used under the Paris Agreement.
It is derived from a combination of both the average temperature of air just above the land surface and in the upper layer of the ocean.
Several organizations develop estimates of Earth’s average surface temperature using a variety of methods. Aside from Copernicus, they include national organizations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
All datasets produced by these agencies point to a very clear warming trend since 1900.
Most datasets are based on directly observed temperatures from weather stations on land and floats on the ocean, both of which contain thermometers. Satellites in space are also used to gather infrared estimates.
The advanced methods used today, and the many thousands of observations, mean daily temperature data is far more accurate than in years past. The further back in time we go, the more uncertain the estimates of global average surface temperatures.
What Is Copernicus?
The Copernicus Climate Change Service is part of the European Union’s Earth observation program. To generate its temperature estimates, Copernicus uses not just observations, but a computer model simulation.
The model simulates temperatures at 2 meters above the land surface everywhere across the globe. The results are combined with an estimate of oceans’ average surface temperature derived from direct observation and satellite information.
Copernicus’ use of information from a model simulation means its method differs slightly from other datasets. However, the method is well regarded and provides global estimates of average surface temperatures within a couple of days.
Unpicking the Temperatures
We know the climate is changing at a rapid pace. But why is this record daily heat occurring now?
As the graph above shows, the global average surface temperature follows a distinct seasonal cycle. Temperatures in July are typically about 4 degrees Celsius higher than in January.
The difference comes down to the larger land masses of North America, Europe, and Asia, as compared to those in the southern hemisphere.
[ad_2]
Andrew King
Source link -
Winter 2.0: Weather Service Predicts Rain, Snow This Weekend for Certain Parts of North Texas
[ad_1]
Snow sprinkled over North Texas last month thanks to an arctic blast, forcing several school districts to close and folks to pray that we wouldn’t see another power-grid disaster. Luckily for all, this cold season hasn’t been super traumatic (lookin’ at you, Winter Storm Uri).Last week, the world’s preeminent groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, failed to catch a glimpse of his shadow. Legend says this signifies that spring will strike early this year. Indeed, the past few days have felt pretty dang spring-like, with the high in Dallas on Thursday hovering around a balmy 70 degrees.
But wait. Before you get excited about busting out your Hawaiian short sleeves, just remember that it wouldn’t be Texas weather without a little whiplash.
The National Weather Service’s Fort Worth office posted an infographic to X on Friday morning letting North Texans know that winter isn’t in the rearview just yet.
“We continue to watch the storm system on Sunday that may bring a potential for a light rain/snow mix across portions of our northwestern counties late Sunday into Monday,” the weather service wrote in part.
☔❄️We continue to watch the storm system on Sunday that may bring a potential for a light rain/snow mix across portions of our northwestern counties late Sunday into Monday. Here’s the latest thinking and what has changed! Keep checking the forecast for updates! #dfwwx #ctxwx pic.twitter.com/voQp1ElVaS
— NWS Fort Worth (@NWSFortWorth) February 9, 2024
The infographic goes on to explain that a mix of light rain and snow could strike the region’s far northwesterly parts starting late in the weekend and leading into the workweek. Still, don’t count on that powder sticking around for very long: “No accumulations are expected at this time,” the infographic notes.
Pete Delkus, WFAA’s famed weather lord, further explained what to expect when it comes to snow. While the flakes will be falling pretty close by, Dallas dwellers won’t be seeing any. Temperatures here will be too high for us to experience a winter wonderland comeback.
All you recreation fiends out there should also note that Friday will be the toastiest day of the weekend. Delkus predicts that despite seeing some cloud cover, highs will ascend to the 70s.
“A few spots in eastern North Texas will see an isolated shower, but better rain chances hold off until tomorrow,” he continued in a Friday morning post on X.It won’t rain the entire weekend, but just about everyone will see rain at some point. The highest coverage will be on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Rain doesn’t completely go away during the afternoons. Temps drop to the 50s by Sunday. #wfaaweather pic.twitter.com/RWhffUlSnn
— Pete Delkus (@wfaaweather) February 9, 2024
Saturday and Sunday will almost certainly get hit by rain — each day has an 80% chance — so be sure to have your galoshes ready for action. Highs will hover around 61 degrees on Saturday and 56 the following day.
But fear not, sun lovers. Skies are expected to start clearing up early next week, culminating in a precipitation-free, 68ish-degree Valentine’s Day. Thanks, Cupid.
[ad_2]
Simone Carter
Source link -
El Niño's 'sweet tooth' means indulgent treats could soon be even more expensive
[ad_1]
Sugar for sale at a supermarket in Yichang City, in China’s Hubei province, on April 6, 2023.
Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images
A mammoth rally in 2023 for El Niño-exposed raw materials will likely hit consumers’ pockets over the coming months, according to one specialist food and agribusiness bank.
Soft commodities have posted huge gains year-to-date.
Futures contracts on orange juice, cocoa, coffee and sugar have soared in part because of extreme weather and supply concerns related to El Niño.
“You can say El Niño has a sweet tooth because it sort of eats or takes away much of the sugar in the world,” Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities market research at Netherlands-based Rabobank, told CNBC.
“Sugar prices have probably already been passed on [to consumers] but certainly for chocolate we should expect a big increase at retail level — and El Niño is certainly something to watch.”
The El Niño phenomenon, which returned earlier this year, is a naturally occurring climate pattern that takes place when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. It can pave the way to more storms and droughts.
Orange juice on display in a grocery store on Jan. 19, 2023, in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The effects of El Niño tend to peak during December, but the impact typically takes time to spread across the globe. This lagged effect is why forecasters believe 2024 could be the first year that humanity surpasses a critical warming threshold.
El Niño-related dryness in much of Southeast Asia, India, Australia and parts of Africa has supported a price rally for soft commodities such as sugar, coffee and cocoa this year, Rabobank said in its annual outlook for 2024.
The Dutch bank broadly expects global food price inflation to fall sharply after years of soaring prices.
It also warned that several crops could be adversely affected by El Niño early next year, while acknowledging there is the potential for some crops to benefit, citing those in the United States, southern Brazil and Argentina.
Surging soft commodities
Orange juice futures climbed a whopping 80% in 2023, hitting an all-time high in late November after hurricanes and disease devastated citrus crops in Florida.
“Occasionally, these markets exceed our wildest expectations. Did anyone predict $4.00 orange juice? The profit potential from this trade is staggering,” trader Dave Reiter of Reiter Capital Investments LLC said on Oct. 30 via X, formerly known as Twitter.
Reiter has since warned that the eventual crash in the price of orange juice “will be one for the record books.”
The price of cocoa, a vital ingredient for chocolate, jumped 64% this year to notch 46-year highs as West African supplies were hit hard by heavy rains and amid issues such as fungal disease.
The robusta coffee variety on Dec. 15 hit its highest level in 15 years, while sugar prices have risen 13% in 2023 even after paring gains since registering a 12-year peak in September.
Workers collect dry cocoa beans in front of the store of a cocoa cooperative in the village of Hermankono on Nov. 14, 2023.
Sia Kambou | Afp | Getty Images
Rabobank’s Mera said there is a “very clear” relationship between El Niño and higher sugar prices because the weather pattern tends to make conditions in major sugar exporting countries such as Thailand, India and Australia drier than normal.
For cocoa, Mera said the impact of El Niño is likely to be “much weaker.” He added that the mechanics of the cocoa market means higher chocolate prices are not likely to immediately weaken demand or even incentivize production.
“The cocoa industry is characterized by a lot of forward selling in part because of how cocoa is traded [in the Ivory Coast and Ghana],” Mera said, referring to the world’s two largest cocoa producers.
“For example, they tend to sell the crop a year in advance. That means that the chocolate that you buy in the supermarket has probably been bought at a much lower price a year ago,” he added.
“I’m surprised that cocoa is so much higher and that is not felt by the consumers just yet,” Mera said. “It will be — that cost will be passed to consumers at some point in 2024.”
[ad_2]
-
November shatters global temperature records, marking 6 record-warm months in a row
[ad_1]
The planet has experienced an astounding six-month run of record-breaking temperatures, including the hottest November on record, federal officials announced Thursday.
Global average temperatures last month were 2.59 degrees above the 20th Century average — 0.68 degrees above the previous record from November 2015, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, whose records date back to 1850.
The planet also experienced its hottest autumn on record — September through November — and its hottest ever January through November.
“It is virtually certain, with one month remaining in the year, that 2023 will be the warmest year on record,” said Karin Gleason, monitoring section chief with the agency’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
The simmering month saw record-breaking temperatures on land and in the oceans, Gleason said. South America, Africa and Asia each had their warmest November on record, while North America saw its second-warmest November on record.
In the contiguous United States, the average temperature in November was 44 degrees, or 2.7 degrees above the average, marking the 19th warmest November on record, she said.
The warming is largely driven by a strengthening El Niño, the tropical Pacific climate pattern associated with hotter global temperatures. Its counterpart, La Niña, is associated with cooler temperatures and had been in place previously for several years.
The hotter climate pattern is enhancing the effects of human-caused global warming, experts say.
“The overall trajectory, or trend, is warming, and then you have these influences of which [El Niño] is a primary player,” she said. “The strong El Niño kind of broke through the barrier, and we’re starting to see temperature anomalies that we really haven’t seen historically in the record.”
The news comes only weeks after world leaders gathered in Dubai for COP28, an annual United Nations climate conference, during which nearly 200 countries agreed for the first time to move away from planet-warming fossil fuels.
Officials stressed that transitioning away from such fuels is critical to preventing additional planetary warming.
“As long as greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising, we can’t expect different outcomes from those seen this year,” read a statement from Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service in Europe, which has also affirmed that this was the hottest November on record. “The temperature will keep rising and so will the impacts of heatwaves and droughts. Reaching net zero as soon as possible is an effective way to manage our climate risks.”
NOAA officials said the effects of this warming are already being felt around the globe. The first 11 months of 2023 rank the highest for the number of billion-dollar climate and weather disasters in the U.S., Gleason said.
So far, there have been 25 billion-dollar disasters this year — 5 more than the previous record set in 2020. They include devastating flooding in California in January through March; flooding in the Northeast in July and Hurricane Idalia in Florida in August.
The total cost of 2023 events now exceeds $81 billion, and they have resulted in at least 482 direct and indirect fatalities, Gleason said.
Warmer ocean temperatures have also contributed to an above-normal hurricane season, with 20 named storms in the Atlantic and 17 named storms in the eastern Pacific this year, according to Matt Rosencrans, a meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
That includes August’s Hurricane Hilary, which brought the first issuance of tropical storm watches and warnings in California. Ocean temperatures in November were a record-breaking 1.8 degrees above normal for the month.
El Niño isn’t only associated with warmer global temperatures. The pattern is also associated with wetter conditions in California, and the storms coming into the state now are likely related to it, Rosencrans said.
“Going forward, the forecast is that El Niño is expected to continue through this northern hemisphere winter — with a robust El Niño, potentially of historical strength,” he said. There is a 54% chance of a historically strong El Niño during the November through January season.
The impacts of that could include an enhanced southern storm track, which may effect Southern California as well as the Gulf region and the Southwest U.S., Rosencrans said. Long-term forecasts favor above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures in California in January, Februrary and March.
However, the conditions this year have had at least one benefit for the Golden State, which was declared drought free in November for the first time since 2020.
But the overall trends remain concerning, said Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, which also declared record-warmth this year.
“We cannot return to the climate of the 20th century, but we must act now to limit the risks of an increasingly inhospitable climate in this and the coming centuries,” Taalas wrote in an update at the end of November.
“Greenhouse gas levels are record high. Global temperatures are record high. Sea level rise is record high. Antarctic sea ice is record low,” he said. “It’s a deafening cacophony of broken records.”
[ad_2]
Hayley Smith
Source link -
Is El Niño's reputation as a legendary rainmaker overblown?
[ad_1]
NOAA has warned of a ‘historically strong’ El Niño through January, but so far, California’s wet season has been notably dry.
[ad_2]
Hayley Smith
Source link -
A warm, wet El Niño winter is in store for California and much of the U.S.
[ad_1]
After a blistering summer of record heat, raging wildfires and unpredictable storms, federal scientists on Thursday said a warm, wet winter driven by El Niño is in store for California and much of the rest of country.
The first winter outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that a strong El Niño will remain in place through at least the spring, with further strengthening possible over the next couple of months.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation pattern — sometimes referred to as ENSO — and is a major driver of temperature and precipitation patterns across the globe.
“The anticipated strong El Niño is the predominant climate factor driving the U.S. winter outlook this year,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Temperature forecasts for December, January and February favor warmer-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the West, with the highest chance of above-normal temperatures expected in Northern California, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England. Odds are tilted toward warmth in Central and Southern California as well.
The forecast also favors wetter-than-average conditions in many regions of the country, including nearly all of California, the southern Plains, Texas and the Southeast. Widespread drought will persist across much of the central and southern U.S., but not in California, where the Central Valley and San Francisco Bay area have the highest odds in the state of above-normal rainfall.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and West Coast, according to a new winter outlook from NOAA.
(NOAA)
The outlook conjures the specter of another soggy season for the Golden State, which was pummeled by 31 atmospheric river storms, deadly floods and record-setting snow last winter.
Gottschalck said the combination of wetness and warmth means more precipitation is likely to fall as rain instead of snow. But he and other experts also said it’s too soon to say whether California will see a repeat of the atmospheric rivers it experienced at the start of this year.
Wetter-than-average conditions are likely across much of California, as well as the central Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and lower-mid-Atlantic and northern Alaska, according to a new winter outlook from NOAA.
“It’s important to stress that even though we see these general patterns during El Niño and La Niña years, there is still a lot of variability and not every event is going to follow the general pattern,” Julie Kalansky, a climate scientist at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said in a recent El Niño update.
Kalansky noted that last year’s La Niña was a perfect example, as the state received a deluge of moisture despite the pattern’s association with drier conditions in Southern California.
“So, the declaration of an El Niño doesn’t guarantee that Southern California is going to have a wet, stormy winter, but it does stack the deck in that direction,” she said.
The wet outlook follows the planet’s hottest summer ever recorded.
Global average surface temperatures in June, July, August and September were the highest they’ve ever been, marked by sizzling heat waves in Europe, China and the southwestern U.S. — including a record 31 consecutive days of high temperatures at or above 110 degrees in Phoenix.
September was so hot — 2.59 degrees above the 20th century average of 59 degrees — that it also broke the record for the highest monthly global temperature anomaly, or the largest difference from the long-term average, NOAA officials said.
Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the nonprofit Berkeley Earth, called the month’s temperature data “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.”
Timothy Koelkebeck hikes an Eaton Canyon trail as temperatures reach 100 degrees and above.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
The September data and winter forecast make it 99% certain that 2023 will end up as the planet’s hottest year on record, according to Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Currently, 2016 and 2020 are tied for that record.
Schmidt said this year’s monthly heat records are particularly remarkable because they are occurring before the peak of the current El Niño event. Other hot periods, including in 2016 and 2020, happened after the peak of El Niño.
That doesn’t bode well for what might be in store next spring, he said.
“I would anticipate that 2024 is still going to be warmer than 2023, even given the ‘gobsmackingly bananas’ anomalies that we’ve had this summer,” Schmidt said. “What we would predict for next year, based just effectively on the long-term trend and the predicted level of ENSO going into next year, is that it will be warmer again — and by quite a lot.”
Schmidt said he was surprised by the unusually high temperatures this summer. Persistent climate warming driven by the burning of fossil fuels is to be expected, as are warmer global temperatures linked to El Niño, but scientists are still seeking answers about why 2023 has been so off-the-charts.
Some theories include a recent change to shipping regulations concerning aerosols, which reduced the upper limit of sulfur in fuels. The change was geared toward cleaner air in ports and coastal areas but may have had an unintended planetary warming effect because the aerosols were reflecting sunlight away from Earth.
A dearth of Saharan dust, possibly linked to weakened trade winds from El Niño, could also be a warming factor since the dust normally has a cooling effect on the North Atlantic, Schdmit and other researchers said.
Residents check out the damage after the fast-moving and swollen Tule River crumbled parts of Globe Drive in Springville, Calif., in March.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Additionally, the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano in 2022 shot record-breaking amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere, which can act as a heat-trapping greenhouse gas.
“But all of the quantitative estimates of how big those effects are are way too small to explain what’s going on,” Schmidt said. “This is not a neat story. It could be the long-term trends, plus ENSO, plus a little bit from the volcano, plus a little bit from the marine shipping emission changes, plus quite a large chunk of internal variability.”
Indeed, he said that while the long-term trends point to continued warming, there are likely to be years in the future that are cooler than 2023.
What is indisputable, though, is that people are already experiencing the effects of warmer temperatures — including extreme rainfall, extended droughts, heat waves and sea level rise — through their impacts on infrastructure, coral reefs, fishing, crop yields and other sectors, Schmidt said.
NOAA experts said this year’s El Niño probably won’t be as severe as the one in 2015-16, which ranked as a “very strong El Niño,” but that it would still be wise for the West Coast to ready itself for more El Niño-fueled moisture. This month, state officials said they are taking steps to prepare for such a possibility, including assembling flood control material and sandbags, and providing funds for critical levee repairs.
Though the winter storms significantly eased drought conditions in California, the soggy winter was among dozens of billion-dollar climate disasters in the U.S. this year, with flooding in the state between January and March causing about $4.2 billion in damage, according to NOAA. In August, Tropical Storm Hilary dropped more than a year’s worth of rain in a single day in several regions of the state.
Other billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. include major flooding in New York, Hurricane Idalia in Florida and a devastating firestorm in Hawaii.
“So far this year we’ve had 24 confirmed billion-dollar disasters, which is already a record-breaking amount,” said Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist with NOAA. “And we still have October, November and December to go.”
[ad_2]
Hayley Smith
Source link -
El Niño is going to continue through spring 2024, forecasters predict
[ad_1]
Forecasters say there could be months still to go before the culmination of El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by higher sea surface temperatures and precipitation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect weather across the globe.
The warm phase of an oscillating cycle that recurs every few years, El Niño officially arrived in June, and at the time scientists anticipated that the phenomenon would likely continue into the latter part of 2023. Now, in an updated outlook released Thursday by the National Weather Service’s Climate Predication Center, forecasters said there was an 80% chance that El Niño would persist into the Northern Hemisphere’s spring season and linger until May of next year.
There is also a high probability that El Niño will become stronger than usual as it finishes out its current run, which could mean its mark on winter temperatures as well as rain and snow patterns around the world may be more evident, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
NOAA
El Niño is one half of the alternating El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, a shifting system of contrasting climate phenomena dictated by trade wind patterns and their resulting effects on sea surface temperature in a block of the equatorial Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii. El Niño replaces its inverse, La Niña, the cycle’s colder stretch. Both phases of ENSO are defined by sea surface temperatures and precipitation in that section of the Pacific that depart from what is considered the neutral norm. An increase in temperatures and precipitation levels corresponds with El Niño, and the opposite is true for its counterpart.
The extent to which El Niño affects global weather patterns depends on its strength. The warmer ENSO phase has intermittently disrupted marine ecosystems and can wield significant influence over the weather in the United States, where El Niño is typically associated with wetter conditions along the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast that sometimes cause serious flooding. This phase of the climate cycle generally brings warmer and dryer weather to northern parts of the U.S. as well as Canada.
So far in 2023, El Niño’s effects on the U.S. climate have not unfolded exactly as its past activity might suggest.
Last July marked the fourth consecutive month of record-high global ocean surface temperatures, and it also had the highest monthly sea surface temperature anomaly in NOAA’s 174-year record, the agency said, acknowledging that all of that could be related to the characteristic warmth seen in El Niño.
But the atmospheric conditions normally created by this phase, which tend to help decrease tropical activity during Atlantic hurricane season, developed slower than anticipated. Hurricane season lasts annually from June until November, and this one was more active than normal, even though it is usually La Niña that corresponds with increased hurricanes in the U.S.
“Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center, in a statement announcing El Niño’s impending arrival earlier this year.
“Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño,” said L’Heureux. “For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño.”
The effects of El Niño usually strengthen heading into the fall and winter seasons, scientists say, so the next few months could bring increased rainfall and snow to certain places as long as the climate pattern remains in place. How its true effects will take shape may be somewhat unpredictable, according to NOAA, which noted that changing global climate “means this El Niño is operating in a different world than earlier El Niño events.”
[ad_2]
-
Researchers: El Niño Could Lead to the Spread of Infectious Diseases | Entrepreneur
[ad_1]
The planet’s weather over the past three years has been dominated by a natural cycle called La Niña — an oceanic phenomenon that results in below-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and lower average temperatures worldwide. But forecasters predict that, sometime between this summer and the end of the year, La Niña’s opposite extreme, El Niño, will take over.
That seismic shift could have major implications for human health, specifically the spread of disease. El Niño will increase temperatures and make precipitation more volatile, which could fuel the spread of pathogen-carrying mosquitoes, bacteria, and toxic algae. It’s a preview of the ways climate change will influence the spread of infectious diseases.
“The bottom line here is that there are a range of different health effects that might occur in the setting of an El Niño,” Neil Vora, a physician with the environmental nonprofit Conservation International, told Grist. “That means we have to monitor the situation closely and prepare ourselves.”
A boon for mosquitos
As with La Niña, the effects of an El Niño extend far beyond a patch of above-average warmth in the Pacific. Parched regions of the world — like Chile, Peru, Mexico, and the American Southwest — are often bombarded with rain and snow. Some other parts of the world, including the Northeastern U.S., the Amazon, and Southeast Asia’s tropical regions, on the other hand, don’t see much rain at all in an El Niño year.
The planet could temporarily become 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer, on average, than in preindustrial times — a threshold scientists have long warned marks the difference between a tolerable environment and one that causes intense human suffering.
These patterns are a boon for certain vector-borne illnesses — defined as infections transmitted by an organism (usually an arthropod, a category that includes insects and arachnids). Regions of the world that will experience longer wet seasons because of El Niño, many of which are in the tropics, may see an increase in mosquito-borne illnesses, according to Victoria Keener, a senior research fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, and a coauthor of the U.S.’s upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment. “El Niño will mean a longer breeding season for a lot of vectors and increased malaria potential in a lot of the world,” she said.
A 2003 study on the intersection of El Niño and infectious disease showed spikes in malaria along the coasts of Venezuela and Brazil during and after El Niño years. The study looked at more than a dozen cycles between El Niño, La Niña, and the cycle’s “neutral” phase, which taken together are known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The researchers, who analyzed data dating back to 1899, also found an increase in malaria during or post-El Niño in Colombia, India, Pakistan, and Peru. Cases of dengue, another mosquito-borne illness, increased in 10 Pacific islands.
The manner in which El Niño impacts mosquitos and the diseases they carry is varied and often difficult to accurately calculate, said Christopher Barker, an associate professor in the Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology of the University of California Davis School of Veterinary Medicine. Mosquitos breed in warm, wet conditions. But too much water in the form of flooding rains can wash away mosquito larvae and ultimately contribute to a decrease in mosquito populations.
As the planet shifts into an El Niño year, Barker said the areas to keep a close eye on are ones where moderate or heavy rains are followed by dry, warm months. If the past is any indication, countries like India and Pakistan are especially at risk.
So is California. After years of drought, recent storms in the Golden State have generated a lot of flooding and cooler-than-normal conditions. If that leads into a hotter-than-normal summer, “that may set things up for bad conditions for West Nile virus,” Barker said of the mosquito-borne illness that is becoming more prevalent in the U.S.
El Niño is projected to bring unusual warmth to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Great Plains. Kristie L. Ebi, a professor of global health at the University of Washington, said warmth is often the determining factor in how far north vectors of disease move. “We know that mosquitoes don’t control their internal temperature,” she said. “When it’s hotter they’re going to see opportunities to move into new ranges. If the El Niño lasts long enough they get established and find habitat, then you can see an expansion in geographic range.” A study on the link between infectious disease in the U.S. and El Niño, published in 2016, found a link between tick-borne illnesses such as rickettsiosis — an infection that can damage the brain, lungs, and skin — and El Niño in the Western U.S.
Concerns about cholera
Vibrio cholerae, the water-borne bacteria that causes cholera, is another area of concern, experts told Grist — both in areas that see more rain during El Niño and those that see less rain. Flooding aids the spread of the cholera bacteria from open sewers and other waste containers — still prevalent in many underdeveloped parts of the world — into drinking water systems.
Drought also leads to an uptick in cholera cases in poor countries, because restricted access to fresh water forces people to use less water for personal hygiene practices like handwashing and turn to unsafe sources of drinking water. “Cholera can be a devastating infectious disease that causes a very severe diarrhea that can dehydrate people so badly that they die,” Vora said. “In the setting of an El Niño extreme weather event, there might be impacts on sewage systems or on access to clean water, and that can lead to the spread of water-borne diseases such as cholera.”
Research shows El Niño has had an impact on the transmission of cholera in Bangladesh and eastern India. Water-borne illnesses writ large increase in the western Pacific islands during an El Niño year, Keener said, because El Niño in that region is associated with drought. “People start conserving water and using it for drinking instead of hygiene, so you see an increase in things like pink eye, gastrointestinal issues, just a whole host of health issues,” she said.
Poisonous algae
Poisonous algae is a consideration in regions where El Niño spurs above-average sea-surface temperatures. Algae thrive in warm water, where their poisons accumulate in water-filtering organisms such as shellfish. Humans who consume that shellfish or are otherwise exposed to the algae can develop symptoms like abdominal cramping, rashes, vomiting, and even, in extreme cases, death. A study from 2020 links El Niño to a pair of harmful algal blooms in the southern hemisphere, commonly referred to as the “Godzilla-Red tide event,” which poisoned four people and led to massive economic losses in Australia and Chile.
The study noted that these blooms, sparked by high sea-surface temperatures brought on by an El Niño, were a “dress rehearsal” for future outbreaks of poisonous algae influenced by climate change. The coming El Niño may bring about a Godzilla round two. “I wouldn’t be surprised with warmer temperatures if you see an association with harmful algal blooms,” Ebi said, noting that El Niño’s signature high temperatures are one of the phenomenon’s most widespread and impactful health-related consequences.
The premise that El Niño years offer a glimpse of what a future permanently altered by climate change might look like is one governments should take seriously. Public health institutions are doing a subpar job of monitoring infectious diseases, pinpointing where they’ll crop up, and preparing communities for an uptick in environmental pathogens. The coming ENSO shift may further illuminate those weaknesses. “We have few ideas about what will move and what will pop up when there is any kind of climate or weather perturbation,” Daniel R. Brooks, coauthor of The Stockholm Paradigm: Climate Change and Emerging Disease, told Grist.
Even public health agencies in the U.S., one of the richest countries in the world, do a poor job of assessing infectious disease risk, monitoring pathogens as they move through the environment, and testing individuals for increasingly common diseases such as the West Nile virus, especially when they’re asymptomatic. “This means the real threat is unpleasant surprise,” Brooks said. “We know a bit about some already known pathogens, but that is not good enough.”
Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climate solutions and a just future. Learn more at Grist.org
[ad_2]
Zoya Teirstein
Source link
