Tag: Bitcoin Bear Market

The exchange’s institutional desk highlights negative gamma exposure between $60,000 and $70,000, a setup that can amplify volatility.

Bitcoin’s brief rebound above $66,000 following U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address has done little to shift the underlying market structure, with fresh analysis from Coinbase Institutional pointing to a critical support zone near $60,000 that, if broken, could trigger accelerated selling.

The combination of options market dynamics and on-chain data suggests the path of least resistance remains lower, with any sustained recovery likely requiring a reclaim of $82,000, a level that currently stands as the first major hurdle to renewed upside momentum.

Options Market Points to Accelerated Downside Risk

Coinbase Institutional’s latest Bitcoin playbook introduced gamma exposure (GEX) as a lens for understanding how options dealers influence price action. According to the firm, when dealers hold positive gamma, their hedging tends to stabilize prices, selling into strength and buying into weakness. Negative gamma has the opposite effect, forcing dealers to buy as prices rise and sell as they fall, amplifying trends.

The current configuration shows a pronounced negative gamma band concentrated in the $60,000 to $70,000 region, with positive gamma pockets forming higher up near $85,000 and $90,000. This structure, per Coinbase, carries a specific implication: downside momentum into the $60,000 area could accelerate rapidly, while any advance toward $90,000 would likely grind and consolidate rather than break out cleanly.

Dense support sits near $60,000 based on historical market structure and volume profiles, while $82,000 represents the first significant resistance band. According to Coinbase’s market watchers, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $82,000 on approach, the lack of stabilizing gamma in that region suggests resistance may hold. By contrast, a break below $60,000 would occur in a negative gamma environment, meaning selling could feed on itself as dealers hedge in the direction of the move.

On-Chain Data Confirms Defensive Regime

Coinbase’s options-derived outlook matches up with deteriorating on-chain fundamentals. Yesterday, analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Realized Cap has declined for a second consecutive month, falling roughly $33 billion from its peak of $1.127 trillion in November 2025 to around $1.094 trillion. Furthermore, the 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change is still negative, signaling ongoing capital outflows.

Separate data from Glassnode showed the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio falling below 1, meaning more BTC is being sold at a loss than at a profit. According to the analytics platform, such regimes have historically persisted for months before liquidity conditions improved.

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Meanwhile, sentiment tracker Santiment said on Wednesday that bullish commentary across X, Reddit, and Telegram has reached a four-week high following Trump’s State of the Union speech. However, the firm cautioned that elevated retail optimism and talk of a “bear cycle” ending have, in the past, coincided with stalled rallies.

BTC’s bottom might not be in, warned ChatGPT and said there could be more pain ahead for investors. Here’s how low bitcoin could go.

Whenever bitcoin corrects after a prolonged rally, the general question within the cryptocurrency community is whether this is another “healthy” retracement in a bull market, or the trend has changed completely, and the bears are in full control.

The past few months, though, do not appear to be a regular correction. Bitcoin traded above $126,000 in early October before it plunged to under $100,000 by the end of the year. Its impressive start to 2026 was quickly halted, and the asset plummeted to $60,000 last Friday, charting a 52% drop since its all-time high.

What’s perhaps even more worrying is the fact that most other asset classes, including the precious metal market, kept riding high during this time, charting consecutive new peaks.

As such, we decided to ask ChatGPT if it believes BTC is indeed in a bear market or whether this is another ‘typical’ correction.

Is It a Bear Market?

The AI solution acknowledged the substantial crash in early February, indicating that it “represents a major structural shift.”

“Importantly, the $60K zone was a former breakout level during the 2025 rally, which now acts as critical support.”

If the cryptocurrency finds a solid support and stabilizes at these levels, as it has done in the past week, the move south could “resemble previous 50% resets seen during strong cycles,” said the AI. However, a breakdown below these levels could “strengthen the bear thesis significantly.”

In conclusion to this question, ChatGPT said that BTC is indeed in a bear market, at least by the definition of that phrase. The only thing that remains uncertain is the magnitude and duration.

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Where Is the Bottom?

OpenAI’s platform believes there’s a 35% chance that the bottom was in at $60,000. However, its most likely scenario envisions at least one more leg down that could drive the cryptocurrency to $50,000-$52,000.

“The $50K region represents a strong psychological level and prior consolidation zone. A move here would mark a roughly 60% drawdown from the all-time high, aligning with more severe but still cyclical corrections.”

ChatGPT also outlined two extreme cases, both of which it believes are highly unlikely – a capitulation crash to $40,000-$45,000 or a full-on investor exodus to under $35,000. Nevertheless, it explained that both of these scenarios would require a massive black swan event, such as FTX’s collapse or a new war.

Will Bitcoin Endure?

No matter which of the aforementioned scenarios materializes, ChatGPT remains positive on bitcoin’s long-term potential. It reminded that the asset has experienced and survived far worse drawdowns of up to 80% or even 90% in its early days.

“The most realistic bottom range currently sits between $50K and $60K, with a deeper flush toward the low-$40Ks possible if macro conditions worsen. However, bitcoin has shown extreme resiliency in the past, and there’s not much evidence to suggest otherwise now.”

What are the implications in terms of cycle development?

For the first time in more than two years, Bitcoin holders are realizing losses on their investment in the leading digital asset. This change in dynamics comes as BTC and the broader crypto market are believed to be on the brink of a bear cycle.

According to a weekly CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin holders have not seen this shift since October 2023. The negative turn in profit dynamics has dominated the past 30 days.

Bitcoin Sees Change in Profit Dynamics

CryptoQuant said Bitcoin holders have realized losses accumulating to 69,000 BTC since December 23. This is the first time network participants have realized net losses in a 30-day period since October 2023.

The Bitcoin network has witnessed a decline in realized profits since March 2024. The plunge came with prices losing momentum as the bull phase came to an end. Analysts found similarities between the current market dynamic and the 2021-2022 bull cycle. After realized net profits peaked in January 2021, they began to decline. February and November 2021 saw a series of lower local tops, followed by net losses. Notably, BTC holders realized lower net profits at higher prices at the time.

Following a similar trend, realized net profits peaked in January 2024. Since then, there have been a series of lower peaks in December 2024, July, and October 2025. Currently, the profit margin has turned negative, and holders are realizing net losses.

Early-stage Bear Market Signs

Bitcoin net realized profits have fallen from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC currently, a level not seen since March 2024. Analysts said this level is similar to that seen in March 2022, during the early stages of the last bear market.

Interestingly, current net realized losses are also following patterns similar to trends seen in March 2022. At the time, the bear market was already underway, and bitcoin’s price had lost its momentum. Considering investor sentiment and speculation surrounding the market, this dynamic confirms that the bear market has indeed begun.

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Analysts have confirmed that most on-chain metrics and profit dynamics are consistent with early-stage bear market conditions. Last week, CryptoPotato reported that bitcoin’s demand conditions had improved; however, the improvement did not trigger any significant changes. There are no remarkable shifts in demand from exchange-traded funds or spot indicators. Instead, demand has contracted over the past 30 days.

Analyst Doctor Profit is warning of a 10-year fractal pointing to a new bear phase possibly lasting until 2026.

Bitcoin is struggling to hold on to the $107,000 level after a brutal sell-off that wiped out billions and sent it down to a multi-week low of just under $104,000.

It has put many in the market on edge, asking if this is a healthy correction or the start of a terrible bear market.

The Case for the Bear: Fractals and Fear

On one side of the ring, the bears are roaring. Analyst Doctor Profit is sounding the alarm with a chilling 10-year fractal. “There is nothing to remain bullish in this market,” he declared on X, pointing to a historical pattern that suggests a bear phase is starting now, with a potential bottom not due until October 2026.

His doom-laden forecast is amplified by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which nosedived from “greed” to “extreme fear” in just days, to sit at 22, the lowest level since April. Over $1.2 billion worth of trades were liquidated, with long positions taking the heaviest hit.

According to market watchers, this level of fear has historically signaled either capitulation or the start of massive accumulation by whales.

Some of the recent triggers for the volatility have been pure political theater, with prices immediately jumping when President Trump indicated proposed tariffs on China would not stand. It showed just how tightly Bitcoin is becoming tethered to macro headlines and Wall Street’s opening bell.

The Bullish Counterpunch: Liquidity and Opportunity

Not everyone is throwing in the towel. Macro analyst Ted Pillows tweeted today that if gold liquidity flows into Bitcoin, the crypto asset could go to $150,000, suggesting that BTC could soon reclaim its “digital haven” narrative.

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He says that since gold looks overextended, some of the money that is sitting on the sidelines might move into Bitcoin, which could cause another huge rise.

“The key question is whether gold liquidity will flow into Bitcoin,” wrote Pillows. “If people start seeing BTC as the better ‘safe haven’ now that gold looks overbought, then a run to $150K is very possible.”

Meanwhile, influencer Kyle Chassé paints an even more radical picture, pointing to expanding global liquidity. His model suggests a path to $700,000 per Bitcoin if conditions hold.

With that said, the battleground is clear. For the optimists, Bitcoin must defend the $105,000 zone, with some pointing to a potential short squeeze that could rocket the price back toward $117,000 in a matter of hours. For others, like investor Chris Burniske, a break below the crucial 50-week moving average near $100,000 could signal a much deeper collapse.