Russia’s reportedly new and extended war plans are “in line” with the country’s effort for a prolonged conflict with Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Friday in its latest assessment.
The Russia-Ukraine war is fast approaching two years of grueling conflict as both sides have faced military losses. In September 2022, Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, annexed parts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, in a move not recognized by the international community. More recently, Kyiv has fought hard against Moscow’s efforts to encircle the Donetsk town of Avdiivka. However, Russian forces have inched further around the industrial settlement almost every day. Moscow launched its offensive on the town on October 10, sparking some of the heaviest and bloodiest fighting of the war so far.
In its most recent update on the war, the ISW, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said Friday that German outlet BILD reported that Russia plans to “occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed Ukrainian oblasts throughout 2024-2026.” The ISW, however, said it cannot independently authenticate BILD‘s reporting.
As part of its new plan, Russia plans to occupy the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and to advance to the Oskil River in Kharkiv oblast by the end of 2024, BILD reported, citing unspecified intelligence.
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“Russia’s reported plans for the war in Ukraine through 2026 are in line with continued Russian preparations for a prolonged war effort,” the think tank wrote. “The Russian military command is pursuing long-term restructuring and expansion efforts to form strategic reserves, and Russia has been gradually mobilizing its DIB to sustain a long war.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry and the Ukraine Ministry of Defense via email for comment.
In its assessment, the ISW said that the plans are plausible, noting Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s recent “expansionist rhetoric,” as he previously demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from “Russian territory” as a necessary prerequisite for the resolution of the war.
“Russia’s reported medium to long-term plans to occupy territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed territories are also plausible considering that Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have reverted to expansionist rhetoric recently, and Russian forces continue offensive operations to expand their positions in Kharkiv Oblast,” ISW said.
It continued: “Russian officials have issued statements about Russia’s intention to occupy and annex additional Ukrainian territory beyond the current front lines and the four (illegally) annexed territories.”
This comes as Russia and Ukraine have each reported dozens of attempted drone attacks in the past day, just hours after Hungary vetoed 50 billion euros ($54.5 billion) of European Union (EU) funding to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air force said Saturday that its air defense had shot down 30 out of 31 drones launched overnight against 11 regions of the country, according to the Associated Press. Russia also said on Friday evening that it had thwarted a series of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Meanwhile, according to BILD‘s report, the next step of Russia’s plan, over 2025 and 2026, will be to take over large parts of the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Kharkiv region.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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