Thomas Barwick
November restaurants survey results show private chain survey indicated November one-year comps +3.5-4.0% vs. October +4.5%, Q3 +3.7%.
Sample size of restaurants with $15B or above in annualized sales.
On a combined three-year basis, same-store sales growth for our sample was +16.5-17.0%, more than October +14.5-15.0% figures and Q3 up 14.8% largely due to improvement for the fast-casual segment, based on Baird reports.
One-year comparision segment-wise: fast-casual +11%; quick-service up 2-2.5%; casual dining down 3% and other were down 0.5-1%.
First two week survey results for December were softer than November, given the three-year comparision.
Outlook for 2023 remain cloudy as the demand backdrop for restaurants could become more challenging than in 2022 due to tighter monetary policies leading to unemployment. However, more confidence is seen in limited-service chains (like franchised models) than in segments like casual dining, coffee.
Stocks on the watch: BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI); Dutch Bros (BROS); The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE); Chuy’s (CHUY); Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG); Domino’s Pizza (DPZ); Darden Restaurants (DRI); Jack in the Box (JACK); El Pollo Loco (LOCO); McDonald’s (MCD); Portillo’s (PTLO); Restaurant Brands International (QSR); Starbucks (SBUX); Shake Shack (SHAK); Texas RoadHouse (TXRH); Wingstop (WING); Yum! Brands (YUM)
