Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s deal with Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin may have “collapsed,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
While Russia’s war with Ukraine continued to rage in late June, Prigozhin and his mercenary troops marched on Moscow as part of a brief armed uprising against the Russian military. The mutiny ended after one day, with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reportedly brokering a peace deal that required Wagner forces to relocate to Belarus.
ISW, a U.S.-based think tank, said in an assessment published on Wednesday that Russian “insider” reports suggest Wagner forces have started withdrawing from Belarus and are headed back to Russia. Prigozhin’s exile also appears to have been short-lived, with the leader having been photographed attending a Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg in late July.
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“Speculations about the Wagner Group’s withdrawal from Belarus suggest that aspects of the deal between [Putin] and [Prigozhin] following Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24 have collapsed,” the ISW report states.
“The likely collapse of aspects of the Wagner-Putin-Lukashenko deal indicates that Putin has failed to decisively resolve issues posed by Prigozhin and Wagner following Wagner’s June 24 rebellion,” it continues.
It is unclear whether Wagner Group’s potential exit from Belarus could be related to the organization’s attempt to capitalize on unrest in Africa, particularly the July 27 military coup in Niger.
ISW also said that Putin “is likely still concerned about the threat that Prigozhin poses to his long-term goals” as he “continues to focus on definitively separating Prigozhin from Wagner.”
The think tank theorized that Putin may have facilitated the Wagner Group’s return to Russia “so that he can more easily facilitate” its “subordination to the Russian [Ministry of Defense] or disband the organization entirely.”
Newsweek reached out for comment to the Russian Ministry of Defense via email on Wednesday night.
Mark N. Katz, professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, told Newsweek last month that Prigozhin’s public appearance at the Saint Petersburg summit may have been an attempt by Putin to reframe the narrative on Wagner’s attempted mutiny against Moscow.
“This may also be part of the larger theme that I believe Moscow is trying to develop: The ‘Wagner mutiny’ was not a coup attempt against Putin, that whatever happened has been exaggerated by the West, and that Putin and Prigozhin are working together now,” said Katz.
The British Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update earlier this week that Putin had begun to arm his personal military guard, also known as the Rosgvardia, with “heavy weaponry” in the wake of the attempted Wagner mutiny.
