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PolitiFact – Charlie Crist’s crime comparison with Ron DeSantis lacks data

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Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist tried to raise doubts about Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ “law and order” style of leadership in their only debate before the Nov. 8 election.

Crist, who served as governor from 2007 to 2010, contrasted crime rates from his time in office with those under DeSantis.

“Crime is up under Governor DeSantis,” Crist said Oct. 24. “Crime was down when I was your governor because we enforced the laws and made sure Floridians were safe.” 

PolitiFact decided to fact-check Crist’s crime comparison. Crist didn’t specify whether he was referring to violent or nonviolent crime during the debate.

One issue surfaced right away: The data for half of DeSantis’ term is not ready.

Incomplete data for most of DeSantis’ term

State crime statistics come from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, which collects crime data from local law enforcement agencies for an annual report presented to the Legislature and the FBI for the national Uniform Crime Reporting Program.

The data has several limitations. Its quality depends on the accuracy of the information supplied to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement by local police agencies. But they have made reporting errors before. 

With that in mind, overall crime fell by about 12% from 2007 to 2010 — Crist’s first and last full year as governor. DeSantis took office in 2019. From 2019 to 2020, reported crimes fell from 541,328 to 464,805 — a 14% decrease. 

That figure includes violent offenses, including murder and rape, and property offenses, such as robbery and motor vehicle theft. Put another way, the crime rate dropped from about 2,552 reported crimes per 100,000 residents to 2,158 per 100,000 residents.

But there are caveats: the Florida Department of Law Enforcement has not published data for more recent years of DeSantis’ term. Crime totals for 2021 won’t be released until Nov. 30; numbers for 2022 won’t be available until 2023.

The state did not allow PolitiFact to preview the 2021 report ahead of its release. 

Although crimes dropped a significant amount in 2020, researchers are still assessing how the pandemic and its accompanying lockdown orders affected crime. 

 

When we asked Crist’s campaign about his claim, a spokesperson said Crist was referring to trends in violent crime. According to the department, violent crime decreased from 128,144 to 98,564 over Crist’s four years — a 23.1% drop. 

Violent crime rose from 81,091 in 2019 to 83,290 in 2020 — a 2.7% increase after DeSantis’ first year. The rate of violent crime per 100,000 residents rose 0.9%.

Again, without figures for the remainder of DeSantis’ term, it’s not a full comparison. 

Violent crimes account for a small number of all criminal offenses in Florida, and slight changes can skew the trend.

“Violent crimes, especially homicides, are still relatively rare,” said Lyndsay Boggess, professor at the University of South Florida’s Department of Criminology. “Even minor changes in the number of murders can appear like dramatic increases in the rate.”

Boggess said changes in reported crimes from one year to the next can reflect statistical anomalies or external factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. She also cautioned against attributing too much influence to politicians over crime trends.

“Enforcement decisions are made at the local level, so police chiefs and sheriffs probably have more of an impact on crime,” Boggess said. “However, the Legislature and governors can fund programs and appoint judges.”

Our ruling 

Crist said, “Crime is up under Governor DeSantis. Crime was down when I was your governor.” 

This is a misleading claim. Data from DeSantis’ third and fourth years in office is not yet available, so the comparison with Crist’s full term is incomplete. 

Nevertheless, overall crime — including robbery and motor vehicle theft, among other offenses — dropped more than 13% in DeSantis’ first year in office. Violent crimes alone increased by 2% in 2020, the most recent data available. The effects of the pandemic on crime are still being studied.

Even though crime fell over Crist’s time in office, every one of his years as governor had a higher volume of crime and a higher crime rate than what is on record so far for DeSantis.

We rate Crist’s claim Mostly False.

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